News Round Up 2017

[AMusicLifeForMe]

I noticed on the Fantastmic dining package page, it has a note under the current prices about the change and new pricing: Mama Melrose and Brown Derby go down $3, Hollywood and Vine goes up $2 for breakfast, $2 for dinner, and $7 for lunch

Only goes down $3 for an appetizer when appetizers seem to cost $10 or more especially at HBD. Yeah...You won't see me going back there. If anything, the price of H&V should go down than go up.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

For giggles I took this information and went to the BLS.org inflation calculator to see how prices had increased after removing the effects of inflation. In September of 1991, pre-sale points were $48.00. The buying power is equal to $85.70 today. With points currently selling for $176.00 at Copper Creek, Disney has managed to increase the adjusted price $90.30. The price has literally doubled as it is up 105%. I'm not mad at Disney because supply and demand allowed them to do it. That said, I really wish I had gotten in MUCH sooner for a better investment for myself.

I can't really dispute any of that...I just caution there is always a breaking point on a non-necessary product. This is also the result of management with little regard to longterm, solid growth.

 

[skier_pete]

For giggles I took this information and went to the BLS.org inflation calculator to see how prices had increased after removing the effects of inflation. In September of 1991, pre-sale points were $48.00. The buying power is equal to $85.70 today. With points currently selling for $176.00 at Copper Creek, Disney has managed to increase the adjusted price $90.30. The price has literally doubled as it is up 105%. I'm not mad at Disney because supply and demand allowed them to do it. That said, I really wish I had gotten in MUCH sooner for a better investment for myself.

I forgot the exact number - but between like 2010 and 2015 Disney increased from about $100 per point to $160 per point. DVC disconnected from its value considerably during that time. Though I do believe this was an intentional move by Disney to "sell/construct less and profit more". They're problem is during that time, they were also selling BLT/VGF/Poly resorts - ultra prime locations. Now they have to sell Copper Creek and next Riviera at that $176 price point and it's going to become a lot harder. It's the reason price increases have slowed considerably I think.

We bought into DVC resale, and are VERY happy with it. However, I paid $74 a point in 2014. NOT $160 a point. I wouldn't consider it a value at $160 or $176 a point. I even just bought 75 points at Boardwalk - and quite honestly at $105 a point with only 25 years yet I am not very happy with that price, but my wife REALLY wanted this and it was a small contract so I accept it. I personally scrutinize the value of the purchase. Buy in, length of contract, annual dues and cost per point for a room at home resort should ALL factor in. I am very happy with AKV as an extremely nice value proposition property. BLT is also a great value even at the $115 / point buy in because of (a) length of contract (b) annual dues and (c) the standard (cheap-end) rooms. SSR / AKV and BLT are the only resorts I would even consider for a sizeable contract.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

DVC disconnected from its value considerably during that time.

On this point... I understand the incontrovertible point that price went up significantly for a period, and so now more buy-in $$ is required to jump in and use these resorts. I would only add two points:

1) Whether there is value for any individual / family in buying into any timeshare is just a calculation of how much you'll use it, over what period, where, etc. -- a good old fashioned break even analysis. There is still value to be had for the "right buyer".

2) One could argue that the more resorts are added / sold, the more options DVC members have wrt accommodations -- and that this adds value. No reason why Disney should accept less $$ than what the market will bear when they add developments. So these go hand in hand IMO.

And I know... maybe they're going to hit a saturation point or some other ugly thing. I don't think we have evidence of that yet.

 

[MissGina5]

News

Fantasmic dining package removes appetizer for 2018

https://blogmickey.com/2017/08/fantasmic-dining-package-removes-appetizer-2018/

but like WHY

 

[skier_pete]

1) Whether there is value for any individual / family in buying into any timeshare is just a calculation of how much you'll use it, over what period, where, etc. -- a good old fashioned break even analysis. There is still value to be had for the "right buyer".

You are of course correct, but my point was more about who could afford DVC. In a short window, assuming a 150 point buy in, they went from $15,000 for a buy-in in 2009 to $24,000 for the same buy-in in 2015 - a 60% increase. Meanwhile, data says income went up by maybe 15% in that same window. Therefore Disney is essentially shifting the target income they are aiming for pretty significantly. (Admittedly they did this across the entire theme park business in this period.) I wouldnt' suggest that a family making $130,000 a year can afford the $15,000 and a family making $140,000 can afford $24,000. It's more like $130,000 and $170,000. (You use whatever numbers you like, my point is, it's a higher income bracket.

2) One could argue that the more resorts are added / sold, the more options DVC members have wrt accommodations -- and that this adds value. No reason why Disney should accept less $$ than what the market will bear when they add developments. So these go hand in hand IMO.

One COULD argue this - but experience says that the result is that the "prime" locations and prime dates (Oct-Dec) only become more and more difficult to obtain. If you consider "value" to be the ability to switch resorts, "value" has decreased. Myself, I consider the "value" to be at my home resort - and the ability to switch a "bonus". If you take that attitude, you will rarely be disappointed in DVC.

And again - the biggest issue with DVC right now - at least at the new Copper Creek. The AVERAGE buy-in at that location is 140 points - enough for maybe 6-9 nights in a studio. Yet the resort has only 9% of it's points in studios, and 25 % of it's points in expensive 2-bedroom cabins and Grand Villas. Owners buying into DVC at Copper Creek expect a week in a studio are going to find themselves shut out of their home resorts, and then at 7-months (when they can book elsewhere) shut out of most of the other resorts. A similar thing occurred at VGF when only 16% of the points were for Studios - this is going to be way worse.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

You are of course correct, but my point was more about who could afford DVC. In a short window, assuming a 150 point buy in, they went from $15,000 for a buy-in in 2009 to $24,000 for the same buy-in in 2015 - a 60% increase. Meanwhile, data says income went up by maybe 15% in that same window. Therefore Disney is essentially shifting the target income they are aiming for pretty significantly. (Admittedly they did this across the entire theme park business in this period.) I wouldnt' suggest that a family making $130,000 a year can afford the $15,000 and a family making $140,000 can afford $24,000. It's more like $130,000 and $170,000. (You use whatever numbers you like, my point is, it's a higher income bracket.



One COULD argue this - but experience says that the result is that the "prime" locations and prime dates (Oct-Dec) only become more and more difficult to obtain. If you consider "value" to be the ability to switch resorts, "value" has decreased. Myself, I consider the "value" to be at my home resort - and the ability to switch a "bonus". If you take that attitude, you will rarely be disappointed in DVC.

And again - the biggest issue with DVC right now - at least at the new Copper Creek. The AVERAGE buy-in at that location is 140 points - enough for maybe 6-9 nights in a studio. Yet the resort has only 9% of it's points in studios, and 25 % of it's points in expensive 2-bedroom cabins and Grand Villas. Owners buying into DVC at Copper Creek expect a week in a studio are going to find themselves shut out of their home resorts, and then at 7-months (when they can book elsewhere) shut out of most of the other resorts. A similar thing occurred at VGF when only 16% of the points were for Studios - this is going to be way worse.

All excellent points -- agreed.

Every now and then I just like to make the point that DVC CAN be a good deal -- still. What has shifted is the "right buyer" into a slightly higher bracket.

I just always think about how some people reading who don't know DVC or timeshare at all might be scared off, when in fact it might save them money over the years, depending on how they vacation.

 

[bluecastle]

I don't want to cause a panic, or perhaps something is wrong with MDE, but when I went to check on whether there were any updates for the October hours, I noticed that there were no longer EMH listed on any days in October. I also checked, briefly, in September and they seemed to be gone too. Maybe it's just an MDE thing. Hopefully they have not done away with them, but I had heard rumors that they might.

 

[AMusicLifeForMe]

Cafe Orleans Fantasmic Dining Package coming to Disneyland!

From the Disney Parks Blog Article:

"While River Belle Terrace is under refurbishment at Disneyland park, guests can make reservations beginning August 15 for the Cafe Orleans dining package. These packages are available September 5 – November 16."

Cafe Orleans “Fantasmic!” Dining Package:

• Package includes one three-course meal (starter, entrée and dessert)
• Includes a “Fantasmic!” reserved viewing area voucher
• Dining package reservations available from 11:30 a.m. until 7:30 p.m.
• Same day reservations based on availability
• Cafe Orleans “Fantasmic!” Dining Package Pricing:
  • $45.00 – Adult
  • $25.00 – Children (ages 3-9)

Source: https://disneyparks.disney.go.com/b...sneyland-park-the-place-for-fantasmic-dining/

 

[danikoski]

I don't want to cause a panic, or perhaps something is wrong with MDE, but when I went to check on whether there were any updates for the October hours, I noticed that there were no longer EMH listed on any days in October. I also checked, briefly, in September and they seemed to be gone too. Maybe it's just an MDE thing. Hopefully they have not done away with them, but I had heard rumors that they might.

EMH are still listed on the website for September and October. Sounds like it's an MDE glitch.

 

[WDWFantasmicFan]

'Sum of all Thrills' at Epcot soon to re-open sponsor-less?

https://twitter.com/ORLParkPass/status/893570955938861056

 

[FoxC63]

I don't want to cause a panic, or perhaps something is wrong with MDE, but when I went to check on whether there were any updates for the October hours, I noticed that there were no longer EMH listed on any days in October. I also checked, briefly, in September and they seemed to be gone too. Maybe it's just an MDE thing. Hopefully they have not done away with them, but I had heard rumors that they might.

That's interesting. Over on the Travel Agents Calendar Thread I noticed a few days ago for late October the hours for AK was extended by 30 minutes. Also on the bottom left corner the "Last edit date" changed from 5/12/2016 to 7/18/2017 so I'm sure some changes have been made. https://media.disneywebcontent.com/StaticFiles/ParkHours/WDW_TAC_2017Oct.pdf

 

[beer dave]

Are you suggesting the deduct of like $90 a year in dues makes that 4 night stay per year a "good" deal?

Lol

No, I'm suggesting that the sales department is using the maintenance fees for the polynesian when talking with potential purchasers........

 

[beer dave]

It's fascinating to watch what they are trying to do from over here in the weeds...

...does anybody know when the last time they bumped the price was?

I don't have my stop watch.....

 

[FoxC63]

Gotta ask @rteetz , Ryan how many Magic Bands do you own? Are they all limited edition?

 

[beer dave]

I'm a long proponent of the DDC/TIW...

...but you know...at $175 (it was $50/$75 forever...just another price increase "just cause we can") combined with the dvc "first class citizen" discounts...I don't know if I will get it again. The alcohol discount is a key advantage still...

...I'll have to call beer dave over to nomad one day and we can "show em who's boss"

Wish I could join you....I think I'm blacked out....
The xingu is probably the best beer they have there.... if you care...At the drink booth where Everest fast passes used to be they have victory golden monkey on tap.....

 

[lockedoutlogic]

but like WHY

To get you to pay more for less of old stuff...to make it pretty to the point.

 

[MommaBerd]

'Sum of all Thrills' at Epcot soon to re-open sponsor-less?

https://twitter.com/ORLParkPass/status/893570955938861056

If true, I will have one very happy kid! (Though I'm not sure how soon he'll get to ride it )

 

[rteetz]

Gotta ask @rteetz , Ryan how many Magic Bands do you own? Are they all limited edition?

4 limited editions. 3 more special ones, then probably 5 or 6 basic ones you get with your stay.

 

[MissGina5]

To get you to pay more for less of old stuff...to make it pretty to the point.

I know but how much extra effort was an appetizer like honestly. Is the budget so tight they have to eliminate specifically one dessert party's appetizer?