Poll: Are you going to buy at Riviera

[larry47591]

The question is, will DVC start dropping direct prices? I can't believe they're going to raise prices again. Will people pay?

Maybe we should start a new thread where everyone can give their best guess. Copy and paste mine if someone starts one! lol I want credit if I "win"

I don't think they will ever drop prices on direct. I doubt resale drops much. I think just looking at the past prices are always going up. Unless a recession hits I don't see prices going down. And of course once the economy bounces back Prices would keep on raising . Look at the last ten years, Prices have risen over 80 a point direct. Resale has risen a ton as well. I think in 5 years everyone will be saying I wish I bought more points back in 2019. Forget about 10 years from now, probably be over 300 a point. Room rates will continue to raise as well. Im sure the rental market will remain where it's at, unless disney changes the rules (probably will happen). Disney is a luxury and the price point will reflect that.

 

[ljmiii]

So - the question of how BWV and BCV trend in the future is a good one. The only thing we know for sure is that in 2042 the value is zero....

Well...no. What we know for sure is...

In 2042 five resorts plus the unextended fraction of OKW points will expire.
Some/many/most of the then current owners would not want (nor be able to afford) a full 50 year extension of their lease at then current direct prices.
OKW, VB, HHI, BWV, BRV, and BCV are all very different resorts in different situations and will like likely have different outcomes.
And we come close to knowing for sure that at least as of two years ago WDW/DVD didn't know what was going to happen as 2042 approaches.

Will there be be an 'extension' at any of the resorts that remain within DVC (subject to new rules, of course)? 10 yrs? 25 yrs?
Will there be discounts offered for 50 year contracts? 10%? 20%? Only to direct purchasers? Or also those who bought resale before XX/YY/20ZZ?
Will there be a window during which only existing owners can purchase?

We can speculate endlessly about what they will do with each resort and what incentives they will offer to then current owners. But I would be very surprised if the value of BCV in 2042 is zero.

 

[ELMC]

We can speculate endlessly about what they will do with each resort and what incentives they will offer to then current owners. But I would be very surprised if the value of BCV in 2042 is zero.

I used to think the same way but now I'm not so sure. Think about it like this...DVD is scrounging for every bit of buildable land to develop their next DVC property. They've destroyed part of Carribbean Beach, resurrected the old River Country, robbed from Poly, etc. etc. They're really grasping at straws. But lo and behold, along comes 2042 and they have Boardwalk and Beach Club, arguably two of the most prime locations in all of DVC land. DVD execs must be salivating thinking about renovating these buildings and selling them directly again (probably at prices that will instantly cause our heads to explode). HHI and VB will likely be spun off. OKW I agree is a huge clustermess. And WL: Boulder Ridge is effectively a Magic Kingdom resort. So what I'm saying is that 2042 to me looks pretty clear. Why grab a little cash with an extension when you can go for the ultimate cash grab and sell the resorts all over again?

For me it won't matter. In 2042 I'll probably be buying eggs individually instead of by the dozen for fear that I won't live long enough to make it through the whole carton. Buying a 15 year extension or a 50 year contract won't likely be in the cards.

 

[Madame]

For me it won't matter. In 2042 I'll probably be buying eggs individually instead of by the dozen for fear that I won't live long enough to make it through the whole carton.

 

[skier_pete]

We can speculate endlessly about what they will do with each resort and what incentives they will offer to then current owners. But I would be very surprised if the value of BCV in 2042 is zero.

Well, you are correct, the way that BCV is NOT worth zero is if they give owners an opportunity to extend/rebuy at a discounted rate. But I am @ELMC here - there's only two ways they do this:
1) As an owner of BCV on XX/XX/20XX you will have the right to buy an extension.
OR
2) As an owner of BCV on XX/XX/20XX you will have the right to buy at the new BCV at a (very slight) discount.

Either one of these scenarios are likely to happen AFTER the date of XX/XX/20XX - so it will NOT give someone the opportunity to snatch up a BCV with one year left on it to get the discount/extension. So while there might be some "value" to having a contract at the end, my guess is you would never get the opportunity to make a sale and get that value. And even so, my guess is the benefit will be maybe 10% off - and even at $350+ a point it's maybe a $35 value.

Like others have said, I will be 72 when my BWV contract runs out, and 88 when my AKV contract expires. Can't say I'm ALL that worried about this.

 

[ljmiii]

But lo and behold, along comes 2042 and they have Boardwalk and Beach Club, arguably two of the most prime locations in all of DVC land. DVD execs must be salivating thinking about renovating these buildings and selling them directly again...

One way for DVD to make yet more money without raising prices quite so much is to offer shorter contracts - i.e. 'extensions' - at existing resorts. Of course they would have all the restrictions of then new contracts and be at prices that seem incredible today...but not quite so stratospheric as the 50 yr contracts. And a lower 'buy-in' price makes for more potential customers. I can easily see one or more of the 'class of 2042' going this route.

OKW is the natural candidate for those 'entry level' contracts. It would make a lot of sense for DVD to keep selling contracts that expire in 2057 - a whole bunch of them in 2042 - and punting any major changes until they all expire together.

Which leaves...

HHI I can easily see DVD getting rid of (or keeping)...it's small enough that it doesn't matter much either way.
VB I think they should make much more of and make the 'bus to the beach' an alternative to the 'bus to the ship'. But they could indeed sell it.
BRV I expect they will retain more or less as is.
BWV is perhaps the most likely candidate for an extensive remodel. But I don't see them spending the money to 'blow it up and start fresh' as some have suggested.

Lastly, I find BCV to be the most interesting of the bunch. It isn't just us DVC'ers that lose our beloved resort in 2042 - DVD does too. And BCV is but a small part of WDW's Yacht/Beach convention center money making machine. WDW could pull BCV from DVC and develop the land for itself. Or it could give it back to DVC. But in either case I don't see them doing anything that might disrupt the character (and money flow) of the overall resort.

And so 'Will they offer extensions' becomes a question of how much inventory DVD wants to hit the market all at once and what price points do they want to target.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

Points charts at BCV and especially BWV are too low for their prime location. There is no way they won't swoop in with new charts as soon as they can, so I don't think there will be an extension. Would it be nice if existing owners get a "special purchase offer"? Absolutely, but I'm not holding my breath. I'm staying at BWV as much as I can, while I can.

 

[DougEMG]

I used to think the same way but now I'm not so sure. Think about it like this...DVD is scrounging for every bit of buildable land to develop their next DVC property. They've destroyed part of Carribbean Beach, resurrected the old River Country, robbed from Poly, etc. etc. They're really grasping at straws. But lo and behold, along comes 2042 and they have Boardwalk and Beach Club, arguably two of the most prime locations in all of DVC land. DVD execs must be salivating thinking about renovating these buildings and selling them directly again (probably at prices that will instantly cause our heads to explode). HHI and VB will likely be spun off. OKW I agree is a huge clustermess. And WL: Boulder Ridge is effectively a Magic Kingdom resort. So what I'm saying is that 2042 to me looks pretty clear. Why grab a little cash with an extension when you can go for the ultimate cash grab and sell the resorts all over again?

For me it won't matter. In 2042 I'll probably be buying eggs individually instead of by the dozen for fear that I won't live long enough to make it through the whole carton. Buying a 15 year extension or a 50 year contract won't likely be in the cards.

Agree, there is no way an extension will happen for BWV or BCV. Disney will redevelop them and then come out with a new point chart that is higher than the Riviera.

 

[DougEMG]

Well I did say there was no way I would buy at the Riviera, but now!

I am kicking myself that I never bought at the VGF when it first came out and the style of the Riviera looks a lot like the VGF. Now I already own at BWV and I would only get 10-15 years use out of the Riviera, so it would mainly be for my daughter to have an EPCOT resort once BWV expires. And I could sell some OKW points to help dull the pain.

What to do, want is a horrible thing!

 

[ljmiii]

I think we are differing on the meaning of the word, 'extension'. If it means something like OKW where the existing contract's terms and conditions are extended - and it only applies to those owners who sign - I completely agree...there will never be another 'extension'.

If it means a shorter term contract (15 yrs in OKW's case) in which DVD gets to write whatever it wants, with whatever point chart they desire, and sold at whatever price point they find most profitable then I think there will be at least one resort (OKW) where an 'extension' is offered. And perhaps more...DVD may find the ability to reach new buyers at a 15 yr price point to be very attractive.

 

[TexasChick123]

I agree with all the previous posters who say there will be no extension. While I cannot predict the future, it does seem to be in DVD's best interest to refurb the villas and sell as new. They can control how much money they put into the refurb and make a HUGE profit by selling a current resort as "new" without all the construction costs of a new build. I know this may shock some people, but every owner will not extend when offered the option. Many will say they are too old, done with DVC, etc. You would be surprised. I know everyone thinks that all owners would extend BWV and BCV, but all owners never do anything unless forced to do it, and they cannot force this particular issue. They tried with OKW, and it failed, miserably. Having different expiration dates is a nightmare, and I just don't see them repeating the same mistake twice. I know those that own BWV and BCV want them to do an extension, but there is just too much money to be made by selling it as new for 50 years versus 15. I currently own BWV and would love for it to be extended, but that just isn't going to happen IMO.

 

[ELMC]

Points charts at BCV and especially BWV are too low for their prime location. There is no way they won't swoop in with new charts as soon as they can, so I don't think there will be an extension. Would it be nice if existing owners get a "special purchase offer"? Absolutely, but I'm not holding my breath. I'm staying at BWV as much as I can, while I can.

Agree, there is no way an extension will happen for BWV or BCV. Disney will redevelop them and then come out with a new point chart that is higher than the Riviera.

This is a variable that absolutely cannot be overlooked. Higher points requirements per night mean higher point totals for the resort overall. That means that DVD can take the exact footprint of the existing BWV (after renovating of course), jack up the points requirements to stay there and sell many more points as are in existence now...at a greater price. Given that they have already started to trend in that direction with the lockoff premium increase in the reallocation-that-shall-not-be-named and I'm pretty sure they will jump at the chance to charge 20 points a night for a Standard View studio (25 during the months of September, October, and November now that Food and Wine is a thing).

 

[kboo]

"that much more per point" is 25% ($140 resale BLT versus $188 DRR direct).

If buying a larger contract at DRR, the price goes down significantly from $188.

1. I want access to Tower Studios - going to require 11 months sooner rather than later
2. I love the easy access to 2 parks and I want 11-month points with such access
3. I need more DVC points, in general (continual theme, even as I keep adding on)
4. I like the resort theme well enough
5. least important: I want to swap a NYE trip and getting access to book it on April 10 is nice

With the exception of #1 (which might be relevant 10 years from now, when my kids are older), I had pretty much all of the same factors in mind.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Well I did say there was no way I would buy at the Riviera, but now!

I am kicking myself that I never bought at the VGF when it first came out and the style of the Riviera looks a lot like the VGF. Now I already own at BWV and I would only get 10-15 years use out of the Riviera, so it would mainly be for my daughter to have an EPCOT resort once BWV expires. And I could sell some OKW points to help dull the pain.

What to do, want is a horrible thing!

2020 point charts. Resale restrictions. Changing the multi-site POS in multiple ways to suit what they want to do. Removing benefits left and right........

Rent out your OKW points or any of your many other points and rent a Riviera reservation if you can't otherwise book there at 7 months.

 

[ELMC]

Well I did say there was no way I would buy at the Riviera, but now!

I am kicking myself that I never bought at the VGF when it first came out and the style of the Riviera looks a lot like the VGF. Now I already own at BWV and I would only get 10-15 years use out of the Riviera, so it would mainly be for my daughter to have an EPCOT resort once BWV expires. And I could sell some OKW points to help dull the pain.

What to do, want is a horrible thing!

If Doug caves, then we all should cave. Keep us posted.

 

[DougEMG]

2020 point charts. Resale restrictions. Changing the multi-site POS in multiple ways to suit what they want to do. Removing benefits left and right........

Rent out your OKW points or any of your many other points and rent a Riviera reservation if you can't otherwise book there at 7 months.

I know, the logical analytic side of me says keep away. But my heart says that my daughter would love owning there for when BWV expire,s, and I would really just be buying it for my daughter. For myself I will be happy to still be able to go to WDW when BWV expires.

 

[DougEMG]

If Doug caves, then we all should cave. Keep us posted.

I am at the point were I am going to look at the numbers and see how they work out. I doubt I will buy there, but who knows. I went from a NO, to a maybe.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I know, the logical analytic side of me says keep away. But my heart says that my daughter would love owning there for when BWV expire,s, and I would really just be buying it for my daughter. For myself I will be happy to still be able to go to WDW when BWV expires.

How about this - it's still a long time until BWV expires. There will be Riviera Resale to buy at that time or even before that if it's a preference. Maybe the Gondolas will all tip over before then.

 

[ljmiii]

I know, the logical analytic side of me says keep away. But my heart says that my daughter would love owning there for when BWV expire,s, and I would really just be buying it for my daughter. For myself I will be happy to still be able to go to WDW when BWV expires.

At least once a day a little voice inside my head says, "Buy already!" So far I've resisted...mainly with logic but I have two emotional answers that help.

The first is that DRR isn't 'the one'. Two or three resorts down the line, DVD will build a resort next to HS or at the front of EPCOT. The price will be exorbitant...but that's the one for me to buy. The one that (like BCV and BLT) puts a smile on my face every time I walk to the parks.

The second is that the only way I can even begin to think DRR is really 'the one' is after I ride the gondola and walk around the resort. If I pay a few more dollars per point so be it.

 

[TexasChick123]

At least once a day a little voice inside my head says, "Buy already!" So far I've resisted...mainly with logic but I have two emotional answers that help.

The first is that DRR isn't 'the one'. Two or three resorts down the line, DVD will build a resort next to HS or at the front of EPCOT. The price will be exorbitant...but that's the one to buy. The one that (like BCV and BLT) puts a smile on my face every time I walk to the parks.

The second is that the only way I can even begin to think DRR is really 'the one' is after I ride the gondola and walk around the resort. If I pay a few more dollars per point so be it.

I honestly think that everyone who feels similarly to you should wait if it would cause stress and anxiety. I'm not being facetious which may be hard to gauge with an internet post that lacks inflection. I have had opportunities to ride gondolas for years, so I am not worried about them really. I'm more worried about the economy, restrictions, chartacolypse, etc. Like I said in another post, I told myself to just stop worrying now that we have purchased and look forward to staying in a very nice new resort with access to 2 parks. We are in our mid-30s now, so this is a good time to buy direct for a new resort for us if we are ever going to do it. I won't bore everyone with everything I've already said. To wrap it up, I think you should feel good about a purchase this size, and if you still have concerns that could be assuaged by waiting for it to open, then I think you're are making the right decision to wait and see.