POT (Proof of Time) Race Equivalency Cutoff Confirmed Times

[GollyGadget]

^ So it looks like the Marathon POT window has increased by 30 minutes (I think last year was 4 hours?)

Yes, that's true. It's also been as much as 5 hours in the past. They seem to keep changing it trying to find a good balance.

 

[kps7795]

According to the first post, it looks like 2:07:48

It was my understanding that these were estimates based upon old information.

 

[GollyGadget]

It was my understanding that these were estimates based upon old information.

I suppose that's fair but it's also the only information we have for POT that includes the 4:30 marathon finish time. Additionally, your 2:11 time is close enough that I suggest you still enter it and submit. If it doesn't make the cut, they'll likely place you in the next corral behind POT. My understanding is that it's only if your POT is wildly off that they place you in the last corral.

 

[Bree]

It was my understanding that these were estimates based upon old information.

A 2:07:48 half marathon is still going to convert to a sub 4:30 marathon. It’s the corral breakdown that’s out of date. It used to be pretty simple with the old corrals and POT breakdowns. With this new starting group crap and goal post shifting for POT cutoff it’s been different for almost every race weekend.

 

[garneska]

Here is my question. it says POT must be submitted at registration but can then be changed up till Sep 27 2022. I currently don't have POT for a sub 4:30 (hello injury) but i am planning to run a half June 12 and get POT. What do i put in for registration? I assume a 4:30 or next selection after POT and then after i run my half in June i can come back and submit say 4:15 to 4:30 with a POT race. I am anticipating a 2 hour half which should easily convert to a less than 4:30 marathon.

 

[GollyGadget]

Here is my question. it says POT must be submitted at registration but can then be changed up till Sep 27 2022. I currently don't have POT for a sub 4:30 (hello injury) but i am planning to run a half June 12 and get POT. What do i put in for registration? I assume a 4:30 or next selection after POT and then after i run my half in June i can come back and submit say 4:15 to 4:30 with a POT race. I am anticipating a 2 hour half which should easily convert to a less than 4:30 marathon.

I would do exactly as you described. Select the first non POT finish time and then adjust it later. I know a lot of people do this just to get through registration faster.

 

[DopeyBadger]

I will update the OP, but I suspect it will look something like this, but with the Plat Club rD moved to the last POT group (the editable image is on my other computer).



Regardless, the new estimated cutoffs are shown above. And if you choose a non-POT estimated finish time, then the faster the time you estimate the earlier the start group you will be in. So they could combine 2:15-2:30 and 2:30-2:45 into a single group during a HM weekend, but regardless in almost all cases those that select 2:30-2:45 will be ahead of those that select 3:15-3:30.

Hopefully this isn't old news, but it looks like the RunDisney website has been updated for Marathon Weekend! Hoping I can slide into s3 if I decide to go for Dopey with a 1:35:05 10 mile.

Looks like you're right on the cut line, but based on the calculation it looks like you'll get in with a POT group. I would appreciate it if you let us know where you do indeed end up for Dopey.

I would do exactly as you described. Select the first non POT finish time and then adjust it later. I know a lot of people do this just to get through registration faster.

100% this. Select the first non-POT and move on when it comes to registration. You can easily change it later for a few months.

 

[kps7795]

I will update the OP, but I suspect it will look something like this, but with the Plat Club rD moved to the last POT group (the editable image is on my other computer).

View attachment 660806

Regardless, the new estimated cutoffs are shown above. And if you choose a non-POT estimated finish time, then the faster the time you estimate the earlier the start group you will be in. So they could combine 2:15-2:30 and 2:30-2:45 into a single group during a HM weekend, but regardless in almost all cases those that select 2:30-2:45 will be ahead of those that select 3:15-3:30.



Looks like you're right on the cut line, but based on the calculation it looks like you'll get in with a POT group. I would appreciate it if you let us know where you do indeed end up for Dopey.



100% this. Select the first non-POT and move on when it comes to registration. You can easily change it later for a few months.

As it stands, I would be in s4 with my 2:11 POT. Hence, I believe that my safest option is to select the first non-POT when I register. I am contemplating running a HM the following weekend. Am I correct that I can go back and change my estimated finish time in the event that I finish faster than 2:07?

 

[DopeyBadger]

As it stands, I would be in s4 with my 2:11 POT. Hence, I believe that my safest option is to select the first non-POT when I register. I am contemplating running a HM the following weekend. Am I correct that I can go back and change my estimated finish time in the event that I finish faster than 2:07?

Sounds like a safe strategy to me.

You are correct. Immediately after registration and at any time between then and Sept 27th 2022, you can change your selection of which estimated finish time or you can change to a POT submission and submit it. runDisney does nothing with your estimated finish/submitted POT data until after the POT cutoff (Sept 27th for MW 2023) at which point it locks.

 

[kps7795]

Sounds like a safe strategy to me.

You are correct. Immediately after registration and at any time between then and Sept 27th 2022, you can change your selection of which estimated finish time or you can change to a POT submission and submit it. runDisney does nothing with your estimated finish/submitted POT data until after the POT cutoff (Sept 27th for MW 2023) at which point it locks.

It will be interesting to see if I can shave off 3-4 minutes off my HM PB. It’s probably unlikely, but it’s better to try and fail rather than wonder what might have been.

I only wish that I had a HM between May and September. This is the thing that sucks about running in South Florida.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Updated the OP.

 

[Baloo in MI]

Ok, so I have a Half Marathon in September, 2020 that I completed in 2:00:45.4. Granted that was a while ago, but that qualifies for Dopey right? I am running it again this fall and hope to get a new qualifying time but I have no marathons between now and the deadline. I hope to qualify at that race, but worse case scenario I can use the previous time?

 

[GollyGadget]

Ok, so I have a Half Marathon in September, 2020 that I completed in 2:00:45.4. Granted that was a while ago, but that qualifies for Dopey right? I am running it again this fall and hope to get a new qualifying time but I have no marathons between now and the deadline. I hope to qualify at that race, but worse case scenario I can use the previous time?

Yes, you can use that time. The pot must be from a 10 miler, half, or full between January 1, 2019, and September 27, 2022. Looks like that race checks all those boxes.

 

[kps7795]

I am curious about what @DopeyBadger and the gang think about my nutty attempt at getting a qualifying POT this weekend in a half marathon. I need to shave off 3 minutes from my HM PB in order to qualify. So, yesterday I tried out a 9:30 pace to see if there was a chance that I could do it. Because of time constraints, I was only able to do three miles last night after work but managed splits of 9:27, 9:28 and 9:27. I set my watch to a 9:30 pace and was intentionally slowing down at times to keep myself at the pace with the thoughts that I want to conserve myself over the course of 13 miles.

I realize that I basically ran a 5K and the HM is 4 5Ks. SO, is this nuts or do you think that I could hold this pace for an entire half marathon?

 

[camaker]

I am curious about what @DopeyBadger and the gang think about my nutty attempt at getting a qualifying POT this weekend in a half marathon. I need to shave off 3 minutes from my HM PB in order to qualify. So, yesterday I tried out a 9:30 pace to see if there was a chance that I could do it. Because of time constraints, I was only able to do three miles last night after work but managed splits of 9:27, 9:28 and 9:27. I set my watch to a 9:30 pace and was intentionally slowing down at times to keep myself at the pace with the thoughts that I want to conserve myself over the course of 13 miles.

I realize that I basically ran a 5K and the HM is 4 5Ks. SO, is this nuts or do you think that I could hold this pace for an entire half marathon?

If this is the only chance you're realistically going to get between now and PoT deadline, why not just go for it? Set your pace target for a few seconds under the target you need to account for the extra distance from not running perfect tangents, run the race trying to hit those targets, and reevaluate on the fly. If it becomes apparent that pacing was a bridge too far, bail out and just focus on finishing. If it feels good, hold the pace as long as possible and see what you can do. You might surprise yourself. If you can't and end up having to slow down, does it really matter since you most likely weren't going to PR?

 

[DopeyBadger]

I am curious about what @DopeyBadger and the gang think about my nutty attempt at getting a qualifying POT this weekend in a half marathon. I need to shave off 3 minutes from my HM PB in order to qualify. So, yesterday I tried out a 9:30 pace to see if there was a chance that I could do it. Because of time constraints, I was only able to do three miles last night after work but managed splits of 9:27, 9:28 and 9:27. I set my watch to a 9:30 pace and was intentionally slowing down at times to keep myself at the pace with the thoughts that I want to conserve myself over the course of 13 miles.

I realize that I basically ran a 5K and the HM is 4 5Ks. SO, is this nuts or do you think that I could hold this pace for an entire half marathon?

As much as I'd like to give you a good idea, I'm not sure I have enough information to say whether it's possible. Doing a 5k at HM Tempo (about 28.5 min in your case) is a mildly difficult workout, but pales in comparison to 45-60 min of continuous HM effort. Although a 2:07:48 is 9:45 pace not 9:30s. Someone aiming for a 2:07:48 HM Tempo (9:44 pace) would do about 15k racing at 9:30s. I'd say 5k of just slower than LT (9:23) and right around 15k pace is right in the area of a good tough training run. So while you were slowing yourself down during the training run itself, like you said, it doesn't really paint a complete picture. I would advise though that in the future you don't try and do a test like this any closer than 10-14 days out from the event. Little is gained physically from the effort, and you may be hampered by the recovery. As I like to say, "Save it for Race Day!"

In a more general sense, these are the things I think about when coming up with race day goal pace:

First, what is my motivation for this race? Is this an all or nothing proposition? For instance, in your case it appears like you're approaching the race as a 2:07:48-ish or bust. If you get 2:07:47, then success. If you get 2:08:00, then failure. If this is the mindset entering the race, then you have your goal pace in mind regardless of whether it meets the standards of actually being accomplishable. You go at that pace and hold on for dear life throughout it on the hope you can maintain it. But if for instance the approach is, "I want to do my best, whether that's a 2:07 or a 2:09. A 2:09 would still be a PR over my 2:11." Then that's when you use other information to help set goal race day pacing. How much risk am I willing to incur? The faster the goal relative to my fitness, the higher the risk. Am I ok with a 10% chance of 2:07 and 90% chance of 2:15 vs a 30% chance of 2:09 and 70% chance of 2:12 (made up example)?

Secondly, I evaluate the race day weather and course. The further away from ideal that the weather is going to be, the less likely I am to hit optimal fitness performance. I can still do my "best" on that day under those particular circumstances, but it may pale in comparison to my best on a better weather day. So for me, if the T+D (Temp+Dew) is under 100, then I'm good for a max effort. If the T+D is between 100-120, I'm ok, but may not reach max potential. If the T+D is over 130, then I know I very likely will not be able to reach max potential. So be realistic with the effects of weather (be it T+D, wind, solar radiation, etc.) and its effect on your racing ability. The course matters too. Because you could do a time trial on a perfectly flat and beautifully cold crisp morning, but then race day is up the side of a mountain on a crazy hot day, and whatever the time trial said is going to be less relevant. I like to use Grade Adjusted Pacing (found on Strava or Garmin Connect) for planning out how each mile's pace will be affected by the change in elevation. So let's say you were aiming for a 9:30 pace on an out and back course. The first half is all uphill and the second half is all downhill. If you attempted to run 9:30s as an even split, then your effort in the first half (uphill) is likely going to feel much much harder than 9:30s. As the race wears on, the HM Tempo pace, may feel more like 10k effort. Despite having a downhill second half, you're likely not to make up the difference based on the hole you dug yourself. So basing pacing off of each individual miles change rather than an even split approach can be useful depending on the course design. The elevation is probably less relevant a consideration in FL though.

Lastly, once I've decided on my motivation and evaluated the course/weather is when I assess where my current fitness is. Have I done anything in training or racing in the last few months to suggest my goal time is reasonable? You're aiming for a 2:07:48. Can you/have you run a mile in 8:17, 5k in 27:47 (8:47), or 10k in 57:44 (9:17)? I'm not saying go try this out, but do you have reason to believe you could achieve these times? The more confident your answer, the more likely a 2:07:48 is within your wheel house. It's important to remember that when you have a specific goal time to allow some watch GPS buffer. You've been training by the GPS watch. When you run 3 miles on your watch you did it in 9:30s pace. But being on the race course is different. You're unlikely to run the tangents perfectly. So you're unlikely to run 13.11 miles per your watch on a perfectly measured course. I prefer to look at old GPS watch data from runners in that same race in prior years. Did most do 13.15 miles, or 13.3 miles, or somewhere in between? I use that to set what I guesstimate to be my final watch GPS distance and then set my very specific pace goal to it. For instance, a 2:07:48 at 13.11 miles is 9:45 pace, but at 13.3 miles is 9:37 pace, and 13.5 miles is 9:28 pace. So having a good idea for what type of buffer you'll need based on watch GPS is important if that's going to be your main focus when making in-race pacing decisions.

Regardless of what you choose, my number one advice when it comes to racing is to treat the race as a victory lap for what you've done and not an assessment. Keep your motivation high. I'm a big believer in the Psychobiological Model of Endurance which boils down to motivation influences our perception of effort. If we lose motivation, a task may not be any physically more difficult than it was when motivation was high. Yet the perception of the effort of the task will increase thereby making it seem harder. Stay highly motivated and you can maintain a similar level of perception of effort.

 

[kps7795]

As much as I'd like to give you a good idea, I'm not sure I have enough information to say whether it's possible. Doing a 5k at HM Tempo (about 28.5 min in your case) is a mildly difficult workout, but pales in comparison to 45-60 min of continuous HM effort. Although a 2:07:48 is 9:45 pace not 9:30s. Someone aiming for a 2:07:48 HM Tempo (9:44 pace) would do about 15k racing at 9:30s. I'd say 5k of just slower than LT (9:23) and right around 15k pace is right in the area of a good tough training run. So while you were slowing yourself down during the training run itself, like you said, it doesn't really paint a complete picture. I would advise though that in the future you don't try and do a test like this any closer than 10-14 days out from the event. Little is gained physically from the effort, and you may be hampered by the recovery. As I like to say, "Save it for Race Day!"

In a more general sense, these are the things I think about when coming up with race day goal pace:

First, what is my motivation for this race? Is this an all or nothing proposition? For instance, in your case it appears like you're approaching the race as a 2:07:48-ish or bust. If you get 2:07:47, then success. If you get 2:08:00, then failure. If this is the mindset entering the race, then you have your goal pace in mind regardless of whether it meets the standards of actually being accomplishable. You go at that pace and hold on for dear life throughout it on the hope you can maintain it. But if for instance the approach is, "I want to do my best, whether that's a 2:07 or a 2:09. A 2:09 would still be a PR over my 2:11." Then that's when you use other information to help set goal race day pacing. How much risk am I willing to incur? The faster the goal relative to my fitness, the higher the risk. Am I ok with a 10% chance of 2:07 and 90% chance of 2:15 vs a 30% chance of 2:09 and 70% chance of 2:12 (made up example)?

Secondly, I evaluate the race day weather and course. The further away from ideal that the weather is going to be, the less likely I am to hit optimal fitness performance. I can still do my "best" on that day under those particular circumstances, but it may pale in comparison to my best on a better weather day. So for me, if the T+D (Temp+Dew) is under 100, then I'm good for a max effort. If the T+D is between 100-120, I'm ok, but may not reach max potential. If the T+D is over 130, then I know I very likely will not be able to reach max potential. So be realistic with the effects of weather (be it T+D, wind, solar radiation, etc.) and its effect on your racing ability. The course matters too. Because you could do a time trial on a perfectly flat and beautifully cold crisp morning, but then race day is up the side of a mountain on a crazy hot day, and whatever the time trial said is going to be less relevant. I like to use Grade Adjusted Pacing (found on Strava or Garmin Connect) for planning out how each mile's pace will be affected by the change in elevation. So let's say you were aiming for a 9:30 pace on an out and back course. The first half is all uphill and the second half is all downhill. If you attempted to run 9:30s as an even split, then your effort in the first half (uphill) is likely going to feel much much harder than 9:30s. As the race wears on, the HM Tempo pace, may feel more like 10k effort. Despite having a downhill second half, you're likely not to make up the difference based on the hole you dug yourself. So basing pacing off of each individual miles change rather than an even split approach can be useful depending on the course design. The elevation is probably less relevant a consideration in FL though.

Lastly, once I've decided on my motivation and evaluated the course/weather is when I assess where my current fitness is. Have I done anything in training or racing in the last few months to suggest my goal time is reasonable? You're aiming for a 2:07:48. Can you/have you run a mile in 8:17, 5k in 27:47 (8:47), or 10k in 57:44 (9:17)? I'm not saying go try this out, but do you have reason to believe you could achieve these times? The more confident your answer, the more likely a 2:07:48 is within your wheel house. It's important to remember that when you have a specific goal time to allow some watch GPS buffer. You've been training by the GPS watch. When you run 3 miles on your watch you did it in 9:30s pace. But being on the race course is different. You're unlikely to run the tangents perfectly. So you're unlikely to run 13.11 miles per your watch on a perfectly measured course. I prefer to look at old GPS watch data from runners in that same race in prior years. Did most do 13.15 miles, or 13.3 miles, or somewhere in between? I use that to set what I guesstimate to be my final watch GPS distance and then set my very specific pace goal to it. For instance, a 2:07:48 at 13.11 miles is 9:45 pace, but at 13.3 miles is 9:37 pace, and 13.5 miles is 9:28 pace. So having a good idea for what type of buffer you'll need based on watch GPS is important if that's going to be your main focus when making in-race pacing decisions.

Regardless of what you choose, my number one advice when it comes to racing is to treat the race as a victory lap for what you've done and not an assessment. Keep your motivation high. I'm a big believer in the Psychobiological Model of Endurance which boils down to motivation influences our perception of effort. If we lose motivation, a task may not be any physically more difficult than it was when motivation was high. Yet the perception of the effort of the task will increase thereby making it seem harder. Stay highly motivated and you can maintain a similar level of perception of effort.

Thank you so much for the in depth answer. I completely agree with you that ordinarily it was crazy to do my test so close to the race. Because of my colonoscopy last week and my biopsy scare, yesterday was my first opportunity to test my legs. Hopefully, I didn't cause my own defeat. Thank you for the heads up on the pace. I was using 9:30 and I wonder if I might give myself a better shot if I slow down by 15 seconds per mile.

 

[garneska]

Since we are bouncing suggestions off each other I thought i would chime in. I am in a predicament, not quite the same as yours @kps7795. I would like to try and get a POT for the marathon by running half. @DopeyBadger you are familiar with my training though due to life and injury obviously not in the same place i was. First off my half marathon is June 12 in Atlanta. I do have 8 weeks to prepare. It is atlanta and will be hotter than the surface of the sun (actually probably not because it is not august but there is a chance). Race will start at 7 am so that helps. I am coming off an injury and quite happy i am running pain free. I definitely do not want to jeopardize that. I am also still seeing my PT so anything i do i check in with her to make sure i am good. For this training plan i am sticking to 4 days a week running with 1 day hiking. I am running M, T (hard day), Th, and F. I usually hike on Sat but depends on the weather. i have added strength training on W and Sat or Sun depending on hiking day (this is mostly because i am getting older and i need to focus on some weight training). When i am running I am doing intervals at the moment. My hard day on Tues is a run/walk of 6/2. Other days are more like 10/2 but i am playing with the interval still. Currently running almost 4 hours week. My slow build up training plan has me at 5 hours by the half. In normal times i would be running 6 to 7 hours a week. My last race without injury was a PTRR 10k July 3 2021 and i did 54:31. Right now on Tuesday i am a consistent at 4.21 miles covered in 40 minutes with the 6/2 interval. i have weeks to go still. Do you think i can hit a 2:05 half?

My mind set is to go for the pace and if i can't hold it or it feels terrible (yes weather and hills could be an issue) i would just drop and cruise in. I am considering a 5k to see if i am even close and i have not signed up for the half yet. i will do that when next month, but i don't want to run it if i don't think i can get POT. Hence the slow build up training plan.

 

[kps7795]

If this is the only chance you're realistically going to get between now and PoT deadline, why not just go for it? Set your pace target for a few seconds under the target you need to account for the extra distance from not running perfect tangents, run the race trying to hit those targets, and reevaluate on the fly. If it becomes apparent that pacing was a bridge too far, bail out and just focus on finishing. If it feels good, hold the pace as long as possible and see what you can do. You might surprise yourself. If you can't and end up having to slow down, does it really matter since you most likely weren't going to PR?

Thanks for the feedback. Unfortunately, this is the last HM in Florida (other than a run in June in Ocala which is 30 minutes north of Orlando) until October. I think that I'm going to do as @DopeyBadger mentioned and just hold on for dear life. The one thing keeping my hopes alive is that I know SO MUCH more now than I did last August when I ran my one HM. I looked at the splits for that race and I went way too fast to start and bonked hard at around Mile 10. I didn't even know anything about pacing at that point. Yet, I somehow managed to run 2:11:35.

 

[DopeyBadger]

I am coming off an injury and quite happy i am running pain free. I definitely do not want to jeopardize that.

This seems to be priority number 1.

I think it's too early to say, but doing a 5k trial would be a good way to find out. The good news is that you have a history of being in 8:18 HM shape (1:49). So you've got plenty of room to regain fitness from where you are currently, to where you've been in the past, to where you want to be. So I don't think it's unreasonable to think you could be in 2:05 shape in eight weeks. But as we go back to priority number 1, I wouldn't stress anything to strive to be there. Don't rush it. Let the chips fall where they may over the next eight weeks. Keep things mostly easy, stay healthy, and then see what happens when things get much closer.