So it appears the crowds are very high right now even though some sites predicted low crowds. Is there a reason why the uptick?

[Alicenwonderment]

Got Covid while I was at Disney… At home sick right now. I am an annual passholder, and I thought that the crowds were much higher last week into this week than I normally experience at other times throughout the year. Lots and lots of non-Americans.

Yikes! Do they still have places in the park to wash hands? Sounds like it may have been going around. Hope you are feeling better. My PA brought it back from her visit to France in July.

 

[lizzyb]

We were there last week and I don't think crowds were low. HS was crazy during the Halloween party day. Multiple rides down at each park for several hours. The day we accomplished the most was at MK during a party day- however, Pirates was down for majority of the day, Jungle cruise was down for quite a few hours and so was Space Mountain (we were stuck on it).

 

[NavyDad]

WDW is a very popular place to visit for people all over the world. The crowds ebb and flow due to many factors, some you can easily predict and some you can't so easily. I think when crowds are either up or down, people try to use that temporary state as validation of whatever theory they are attached to but the realities are usually much more complex.

Also - I would say it was a bit easier to predict crowd levels 10 years ago than it is today. The COVID pandemic was just such a massive interruption and driver of change on travel, economics and just about every facet of society, it has become much harder to predict people's travel patterns.

 

[NavyDad]

Yikes! Do they still have places in the park to wash hands? Sounds like it may have been going around. Hope you are feeling better. My PA brought it back from her visit to France in July.

There are still plenty of places to wash your hands, as well as hand sanitizer dispensers everywhere, but in a very crowded park where large numbers of people are crammed inside enclosed spaces together, airborne illnesses are going to spread.

 

[mickeyluv'r]

There are still plenty of places to wash your hands, as well as hand sanitizer dispensers everywhere, but in a very crowded park where large numbers of people are crammed inside enclosed spaces together, airborne illnesses are going to spread.

The few sanitizer dispensers we saw earlier this month were empty, except a few at Universal. Those have mostly disappeared at both properties.

Handwashing is still available in every restroom. I don't recall seeing any non-bathroom handwashing stations though except the one at T-Rex.

 

[SkyGuy]

The few sanitizer dispensers we saw earlier this month were empty, except a few at Universal. Those have mostly disappeared at both properties.

Handwashing is still available in every restroom. I don't recall seeing any non-bathroom handwashing stations though except the one at T-Rex.

Came here to say the same. There may still be some hand sanitizer dispenser around, but good luck finding one that still has some product in it. Universal does a much better job of keeping them filled.

 

[mickeyluv'r]

WDW is a very popular place to visit for people all over the world. The crowds ebb and flow due to many factors, some you can easily predict and some you can't so easily. I think when crowds are either up or down, people try to use that temporary state as validation of whatever theory they are attached to but the realities are usually much more complex.

Also - I would say it was a bit easier to predict crowd levels 10 years ago than it is today. The COVID pandemic was just such a massive interruption and driver of change on travel, economics and just about every facet of society, it has become much harder to predict people's travel patterns.

Maybe I am biased, but I somewhat disagree with the above. I've mostly found crowd patterns to be fairly predictable.

Weather always has a significant impact.
One way to gauge crowds these days is ticket pricing.
I also look at rack rate WDW/Universal hotel availability, though that is somewhat opaque. It also pays to take a quick look not just at onsite WDW/Universal hotels, but also take a moment to search something like the Marriott website. If "AAA Hot Deals' come up for all room types, then bookings are down. If there are no AAA rates, or the AAA rates are crazy high/no vacancies, then the hotels are more fully booked, and the parks are likely to be more crowded.

Park hours are another easy indication of expected crowd levels. Epcot stays very consistent, but the other parks vary based on crowd levels. Islands of Adventure closing at 7pm= a slow day.

 

[scrappinginontario]

There are still plenty of places to wash your hands, as well as hand sanitizer dispensers everywhere, but in a very crowded park where large numbers of people are crammed inside enclosed spaces together, airborne illnesses are going to spread.

Here now and cannot say we’ve noticed any hand sanitizer dispensers and we’ve been here a week. I keep a small one in my backpack and fill it in our room each evening.

Will be shocked if we survive 10 days of close contact without catching something. A known risk when we book any Disney trip due to close, extended contact with many, many people.

 

[DisneyFan32WI]

Yikes! Do they still have places in the park to wash hands? Sounds like it may have been going around. Hope you are feeling better. My PA brought it back from her visit to France in July.

I didn’t see any hand wash stations?
Still sick in bed and testing positive.
Ughhh…

 

[AshleyGoBlue]

Lots of UK guests during our visit earlier this month. Had some nice conversations with several families. My kids loved their accents!

We noticed this as well during our honeymoon stay at Port Orleans Riverside Aug 11-19.

 

[han22735]

Today's our last night after being here from the 19th. Ride down time has been worse than ever and I think has caused the most issues. On a positive note today was also the first day we needed ponchos this whole trip. Other than a sprinkle when we were in the pool not a drop of rain.

 

[DisneyFan32WI]

Today's our last night after being here from the 19th. Ride down time has been worse than ever and I think has caused the most issues. On a positive note today was also the first day we needed ponchos this whole trip. Other than a sprinkle when we were in the pool not a drop of rain.

I was definitely surprised by all the ride closures! On Friday, Pirates was down all day until the Halloween party started.
This made for some additional wait times at other rides because all the crowds had to go somewhere!

 

[lentesta]

I'll say that from our perspective, which uses Disney's posted wait times at key attractions to measure crowds, one of the big issues we face is that posted wait times are often far from accurate.

That mean that part of making crowd calendar predictions is trying to guess how 'wrong' the posted wait times are.

For example, here's Seven Dwarfs Mine Train from yesterday (8/31). Black dots are Disney's posted wait times in MDE. Green dots are actual wait times as submitted by guests and our staff.



So at 9 a.m., the actual wait for 7DMT was 5 minutes and the MDE said it was 50.

Likewise, at 10 a.m. the actual wait was 28 minutes and the posted was 45.

The posted wait times were off by a factor of roughly 2 to 10. It's really hard to model crowds with that kind of error.

The other, and I think larger, issue is that incorrect posted wait times harm guests directly. When you don't know how long something is going to take, you can't make good decisions about where to spend your time.

I'm sure that scores of guests walked up to 7DMT at 9 a.m., saw the 50 minute posted wait, and went somewhere else. If they had more accurate information, they would've enjoyed very low waits at a very popular attraction.

 

[Upatnoon]

I'll say that from our perspective, which uses Disney's posted wait times at key attractions to measure crowds, one of the big issues we face is that posted wait times are often far from accurate.

That mean that part of making crowd calendar predictions is trying to guess how 'wrong' the posted wait times are.

For example, here's Seven Dwarfs Mine Train from yesterday (8/31). Black dots are Disney's posted wait times in MDE. Green dots are actual wait times as submitted by guests and our staff.

View attachment 789962

So at 9 a.m., the actual wait for 7DMT was 5 minutes and the MDE said it was 50.

Likewise, at 10 a.m. the actual wait was 28 minutes and the posted was 45.

The posted wait times were off by a factor of roughly 2 to 10. It's really hard to model crowds with that kind of error.

The other, and I think larger, issue is that incorrect posted wait times harm guests directly. When you don't know how long something is going to take, you can't make good decisions about where to spend your time.

I'm sure that scores of guests walked up to 7DMT at 9 a.m., saw the 50 minute posted wait, and went somewhere else. If they had more accurate information, they would've enjoyed very low waits at a very popular attraction.

I think the best way to look at attendance is historical. Disney wants a certain number of people its parks -- not too many -- not too few. It adjusts prices to keep attendance in line with its financial goals.

It wants to ensure that capacity is always in line with attendance and has worked to eliminate any "slow" times everyone is chasing.

Is attendance slowing a bit? Create a new discount and it's back to where you want it. Attendance booming? Eliminate discounts.

I think the ride times also are a tool for managing the park and guest experience.

The wait times aren't just for the guests standing at the entrance to the attraction. People are using that information all over the park, many of them several minutes away.

If you know a ride is building up to 50 minutes, do you want to send more guests toward it only to be disappointed when they arrive?

You want to delight guests with shorter waits than expected, not disappoint them. Accuracy is important -- so long as you are not going over wait time.

Generally, I think too much emphasis is placed on these wait times in trip planning. It becomes a game unto itself. Everyone is looking for the perfect information to wait a few minutes less. It becomes more important than it should.

If you dislike lines, rope dropping and staying late until close continue to be the best strategies.

It's easy to get too caught up in, "the line is too long" and then spend 20 minutes walking somewhere else. If you really want to go on the ride, just get in line. At the end of the day, some lines will move faster than others, but you won't go on any rides if you don't get in line.

 

[CoachBeard]

I agree with your December theory. We've spent several Decembers the week after Pop Warner and never saw a crowd or had a use for fast pass. However December 2021was a total nightmare. We never experienced such crowds. I contributed it to the anniversay celebration but a few cast members said it was stimulus money. I think the secret is out!!!

I went the 2nd week of December in 2008 and back then it was kind of dead. The weather was awesome, though all over the place but never too hot. I was going to plan my next trip for that time frame but according to the crowd tracking sites which vary from site to site, it is going to be somewhat busy. But, I also think in recent years it is warmer during that time in Orlando. I don't know, I'm going the 2nd week of January now so I'm hopeful the weather won't be too hot and I can deal with moderate crowds predicted.

 

[jhop321]

I'll say that from our perspective, which uses Disney's posted wait times at key attractions to measure crowds, one of the big issues we face is that posted wait times are often far from accurate.

That mean that part of making crowd calendar predictions is trying to guess how 'wrong' the posted wait times are.

For example, here's Seven Dwarfs Mine Train from yesterday (8/31). Black dots are Disney's posted wait times in MDE. Green dots are actual wait times as submitted by guests and our staff.

View attachment 789962

So at 9 a.m., the actual wait for 7DMT was 5 minutes and the MDE said it was 50.

Likewise, at 10 a.m. the actual wait was 28 minutes and the posted was 45.

The posted wait times were off by a factor of roughly 2 to 10. It's really hard to model crowds with that kind of error.

The other, and I think larger, issue is that incorrect posted wait times harm guests directly. When you don't know how long something is going to take, you can't make good decisions about where to spend your time.

I'm sure that scores of guests walked up to 7DMT at 9 a.m., saw the 50 minute posted wait, and went somewhere else. If they had more accurate information, they would've enjoyed very low waits at a very popular attraction.

That's really interesting. Totally appreciate the work that you all do.

That does make think of something I've always vaguely wondered about, how does Disney actually figure out the waits in the line? Do you have any idea on that? Do they have a cast member who is working who is actually watch the lines and update them on a regular basis, cuz they do get changed on the regular, even if they are sometimes wildly off lol

 

[randumb0]

I just left Epcot and was there yesterday as well. The crowds were very underwhelming

 

[Mle8308]

That's really interesting. Totally appreciate the work that you all do.

That does make think of something I've always vaguely wondered about, how does Disney actually figure out the waits in the line? Do you have any idea on that? Do they have a cast member who is working who is actually watch the lines and update them on a regular basis, cuz they do get changed on the regular, even if they are sometimes wildly off lol

They used to use red cards that were handed to guests in the standby line. The card was scanned by a CM and handed to a quest who was told to give it to the last CM they saw before boarding the ride. The receiving CM would scan it and it would calculate the wait time and update the sign, with a built in buffer determined by the attraction manager that day. The manager is also able to change the time to whatever they choose, so at night, they can set a 50 minute wait even if it’s a walk on. I don’t believe they still use the red cards (known as FLiK cards) at WDW anymore, just DL. I think now it’s tracked by MagicBands.

 

[jhop321]

They used to use red cards that were handed to guests in the standby line. The card was scanned by a CM and handed to a quest who was told to give it to the last CM they saw before boarding the ride. The receiving CM would scan it and it would calculate the wait time and update the sign, with a built in buffer determined by the attraction manager that day. The manager is also able to change the time to whatever they choose, so at night, they can set a 50 minute wait even if it’s a walk on. I don’t believe they still use the red cards (known as FLiK cards) at WDW anymore, just DL. I think now it’s tracked by MagicBands.

Interesting! Oh yeah magic bands ofc. Disney probably knows where we are every minute lol

 

[Wakey]

I’m convinced Genie+ has made the parks seem busier with less people per day. The extra morning hours were definitely busier last time I went as huge amounts of people raced in to try and beat those hated ILL lines. Then the app encourages you to stay longer waiting for rides to come up.
We used to get in at rope drop, do a few rides, then our Fastpasses kicked in, we would do those, maybe get a few more, and normally leave shortly after lunch if not before. This is not possible to do now, and with Genie you want to hang around to get as many rides as possible as well as youve paid for it.
in short, Genie messed up the park dynamic.