Reflections wasn’t killed because of the DVC component. It’s been reported by insiders on WDWMagic and elsewhere that there were (overcomeable but unplanned for) site issues and, perhaps more importantly, an overall change in strategy with the pandemic. Reflections was the very first thing the killed during the pandemic closure, way back in mid-June 2020, before the parks even reopened.
I agree, DVC was just a part of the Reflections project.
It was a very large Deluxe Resort hotel with 900+ total rooms (hotel + DVC).
It would have been the largest resort near the Magic Kingdom.
There were multiple reports of site issues that I am sure may have been fixable, but at what cost?
There were also reports of it projecting to be over budget even without the site issues.
Then the beer flu shutdowns happened.
Reflections was originally set for a 2022 opening.
With the shutdowns and the construction problems they were already facing, the opening date would be pushed back by years.
With these conditions, and the uncertainty of future demand, building a large deluxe resort was no longer a good business decision.
With Reflections canceled, DVC now had a 2022 hole in their scheduled game plan.
VDH was not going to help fill that hole.
And even if the Poly Tower was already in the works at that point, there was no way they would start that until the shutdowns ended.
Que the Grand Floridian....
I wonder if the BPK was more of a collaboration to shift hotel rooms at GF (which had been reported wasn't booking well) to DVC?
The announcement of Poly tower was so early that I think the thought is that by the time that is done and ready for sale, RIV would be much closer to a sell out....if sales follow typical patterns, it will be about two years from the announcement to sales starting in 2024...even if the average for RIV stays around 85K a month, it will have sold closer to 2 million points by that time...which would give it less than 1 million to still sell?
The Grand Floridian is well loved by both DVC members and the hotel guests.
You are correct, however, that the hotel side hasn't been booking at the levels that they want.
The DVC villas have been booking very well, so it makes sense that an adjustment from hotel to DVC would be desired.
It is obvious now that they had been planning a large refurb for the hotel side.
VGF2 filled in for many of DVC's needs....
1. It filled the 2022 DVC hole, quick and easy, just do the first refurb on BPK.
2. It helped balance the hotel/DVC ratio at the Grand Floridian.
3. It distracted from the Reflections cancellation. (kill the bad PR)
4. It gave DVC an opportunity to quickly compare sales demand between two WDW Deluxe DVC resorts, one with restrictions, one without.
As the Riviera sales have held up through all this, I think the restrictions are here to stay for any new DVC resorts going forward.
As far as the timing of the Poly 2 announcement, it was necessary for them to announce it when they did because they were about to file for construction permits.
And because they were still waiting on the data from VGF2 vs RIV sales, I think they took a "wait and see" approach on whether to create a new association.
I don't see that decision being announced until they file to start sales.
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