The VGF 2 pricing thread

[lowlight]

How would they know that? There’s barely any February sales in the OC database yet.

I’m certain they personally know several guides. A few people on the show used to work for DVC.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

How would they know that? There’s barely any February sales in the OC database yet.

That would be a question for Paul Kreiger….Paul are you reading this?

 

[DKZB]

I don’t think we can compare aul against either riv or gfv.
1- in in Hawaii
2- beach
3- no wdw

it has no comps.

riv and gfv compete. Aul doesn’t compete against any wdw resort. aul Might compete against a Disneyland resort, might and really emphasize might. But not wdw, geographic distance is too far

heck it’s faster to get to Disneyland Paris from the east coast than it is aul

Just Checked out Airfare from the NYC area to Hawaii for January 2023 AUL trip. It is close to $1000/seat! With 4 tickets for 5 people (infant on the lap). That is EXPENSIVE before you factor in the room/food/excursions etc. This was always my hesitation about buying AUL points even at December firesale prices. Might work for single people, couples without kids and older individuals but hard to make a case for AUL with a family unless you are a west coaster. DLT is an easier story because you can get a flight from NYC for 1/3 of that price!

 

[stwaldman]

Just Checked out Airfare from the NYC area to Hawaii for January 2023 AUL trip. It is close to $1000/seat! With 4 tickets for 5 people (infant on the lap). That is EXPENSIVE before you factor in the room/food/excursions etc. This was always my hesitation about buying AUL points even at December firesale prices. Might work for single people, couples without kids and older individuals but hard to make a case for AUL with a family unless you are a west coaster. DLT is an easier story because you can get a flight from NYC for 1/3 of that price!

Yeah, it's just such a nonstarter for a lot of the east coast wdw crowd. If I'm getting on that long a flight, I'll go to Europe just as often as Hawaii.

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

I’m certain they personally know several guides. A few people on the show used to work for DVC.

Let’s carry this assumption to pricing. The same people who “know several guides” also predicted prices north of $255.

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

Just Checked out Airfare from the NYC area to Hawaii for January 2023 AUL trip. It is close to $1000/seat! With 4 tickets for 5 people (infant on the lap). That is EXPENSIVE before you factor in the room/food/excursions etc. This was always my hesitation about buying AUL points even at December firesale prices. Might work for single people, couples without kids and older individuals but hard to make a case for AUL with a family unless you are a west coaster. DLT is an easier story because you can get a flight from NYC for 1/3 of that price!

Long time vacationer to Hawaii here (not AUL yet…but we frequent the Hawaiian islands pre-pandemic) and I noticed the same high flight prices, however, prior to the pandemic I could easily fly from Toronto to Maui for under $650 CAD per ticket if I was ok connecting in Denver, or SFO/LAX. From what I gather, the high prices are a combination of airlines shrinking their schedules which reduces the supply of flights available and airlines trying to recoup losses. We should see this normalize in 2023 if things continue to improve pandemic wise and as airlines expand their routes.

 

[CarolMN]

Let’s carry this assumption to pricing. The same people who “know several guides” also predicted prices north of $255.

But if those DVD guides actually knew, the price would have already leaked. I don't think the DVCFan group has any inside info. I've watched and enjoyed the shows & articles, but they don't always get things right, either.

If the info is provided to the guides tomorrow (3/2), I predict it will leak a few minutes after that. Stay tuned!

 

[stwaldman]

Long time vacationer to Hawaii here (not AUL yet…but we frequent the Hawaiian islands pre-pandemic) and I noticed the same high flight prices, however, prior to the pandemic I could easily fly from Toronto to Maui for under $650 CAD per ticket if I was ok connecting in Denver, or SFO/LAX. From what I gather, the high prices are a combination of airlines shrinking their schedules which reduces the supply of flights available and airlines trying to recoup losses. We should see this normalize in 2023 if things continue to improve pandemic wise and as airlines expand their routes.

airlines reducing their prices after finding an excuse to raise them? Ha!

edited the note this is entirely meant in good fun, i know jokes sometimes get lost here :-D

 

[Bjaiken77]

I, personally, love these debates and scenarios. Yes, I’m going to be happy when it’s over, but I’ve never had a situation where I’ve been informed of the price of a $20-$40K purchase, the rules associated with it, and then asked if I want to buy. I’m the type that’s asks a million questions, and mulls over the possibilities, before buying a $50 pillow to decide if it’s worth it.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

But if those DVD guides actually knew, the price would have already leaked. I don't think the DVCFan group has any inside info. I've watched and enjoyed the shows & articles, but they don't always get things right, either.

Blasphemy!!

 

[DKZB]

Long time vacationer to Hawaii here (not AUL yet…but we frequent the Hawaiian islands pre-pandemic) and I noticed the same high flight prices, however, prior to the pandemic I could easily fly from Toronto to Maui for under $650 CAD per ticket if I was ok connecting in Denver, or SFO/LAX. From what I gather, the high prices are a combination of airlines shrinking their schedules which reduces the supply of flights available and airlines trying to recoup losses. We should see this normalize in 2023 if things continue to improve pandemic wise and as airlines expand their routes.

I hope you are right! I am actually second guessing whether we will go to AUL at that price! We could fly to WDW and spend the other $3200 on the parks....better deal to me!

 

[lowlight]

I, personally, love these debates and scenarios. Yes, I’m going to be happy when it’s over, but I’ve never had a situation where I’ve been informed of the price of a $20-$40K purchase, the rules associated with it, and then asked if I want to buy. I’m the type that’s asks a million questions, and mulls over the possibilities, before buying a $50 pillow to decide if it’s worth it.

Look at this rich guy with his fancy $50 pillows. Hah, I’m the same way. I get stuck in analysis paralysis weekly.

 

[Bjaiken77]

I watched those talks too, and I think they said they are just giving their best prediction. They are guessing just like we are.

 

[Bjaiken77]

Look at this rich guy with his fancy $50 pillows. Hah, I’m the same way. I get stuck in analysis paralysis weekly.

haha…hey, sleep is important to the body. I’d pay double to make sure I sleep like a baby.

 

[lowlight]

Let’s carry this assumption to pricing. The same people who “know several guides” also predicted prices north of $255.

I see what you’re saying, but guides know for sure how BLT sold on sale, it’s not an assumption. Whereas I’m pretty sure guides have only a feeling of where VGF2 will be.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

If you watch Pete Werner’s shows on a regular basis ( and you should btw) his predictions about several things have come true. Don’t know the percentages ( maybe 90%), but when Pete speaks, I am listening! Would be fun to see where his predictions fall with the VGF opening price along with ours.

 

[nuhusky123]

If you watch Pete Werner’s shows on a regular basis ( and you should btw) his predictions about several things have come true. Don’t know the percentages ( maybe 90%), but when Pete speaks, I am listening!

The dude uses the same argument others have, gfv as a sold out resort cost $255 so therefore gfv2 has to be $255 or more

compeltly fails to understand basic economics given 2,000,000 new points are injected into the system

he may know his stuff in general and had He addressed the 2,000,000 points I might consider his opinion. But given the total failure to address this massive infusion of points he lost me

 

[BWV Dreamin]

The dude uses the same argument others have, gfv as a sold out resort cost $255 so therefore gfv2 has to be $255 or more

compeltly fails to understand basic economics given 2,000,000 new points are injected into the system

he may know his stuff in general and had He addressed the 2,000,000 points I might consider his opinion. But given the total failure to address this massive infusion of points he lost me

…..oh no……

 

[nuhusky123]

…..oh no……

One of us gets to say told you so in a day or two

 

[Bjaiken77]

One of us gets to say told you so in a day or two

And this will be the fun part!!! Haha