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2019 DopeyBadger Racing Season Prediction Contest - Race #6 (Disney Marathon) - THE CHAMPIONSHIP
Alright posters and lurkers, let's finish this season long contest off with THE CHAMPIONSHIP! It's one of my favorite things to do pre-race. It's also something I do with everyone else on their training plans. Go through the process on deciding race day goals and pacing strategies all based around a possible finish time. I want to hear from everyone.
But here's the twist this time around- It's going to be a season long contest. I'll explain more below.
Please don't be concerned that your time prediction will have much of an impact on my chances. I could run really well, or I could crash and burn. Anything is possible. Here are some rules:
1) Predictions must be made after this post either in this journal, to me verbally, or on my Strava account.
2) Only one prediction per person per race/TT.
3) Predictions must be in by 48 hours prior to the race or time trial.
4) Predictions can be as close as you like to another person’s guess. So, if someone says 3:45:00, you can guess 3:45:01, or the same time (3:45:00).
5) A prediction must be in time. Thus, a guess of "you'll do your best" or something similar is appreciated but not valid.
6) In the event I don't finish, the race is cancelled, or I don't have an official time (unless pre-decided otherwise), then there will be no time recorded for that race.
7) The winner receives a mystery item via email. 8) An important one - To be eligible to win, a person must predict in at least one half marathon race and the 2020 Disney marathon.
I reserve the right to change these rules however I see fit, as after all, this is for fun.
How to play?
Simple explantation
You choose how fast you think I'll run a race when we're about a week out from the race itself. Don't worry I'll remind you.
Longer explantation on how it'll work
-You choose how fast you think I'll run a race when we're about a week out from the race itself.
-Whatever the difference is (negative or positive) from my official time to your prediction is your rolling value from one race to the next.
For example, let's say you predict I will run a 25:00 min 5k. And I run a 26:45 min 5k. Your difference from that race is a -1:45. You predicted my time too fast (thus negative) by 1:45.
As a different example, let's say you predict I will run a 25:00 min 5k. And I run a 24:30 min 5k. Your difference from that race is a +30 seconds. You predicted my time too slow (thus positive) by 30 sec.
The goal is to be the person closest to 0:00 at the end of the season. So if you were -30 seconds on the 5k, then maybe on the next race you'll want to guess 30 seconds slower than you actually think I'll run to try and get back to 0:00.
-You do not have to participate in every race to be eligible to win at the end. You are only required to play in at least one half marathon game and the 2020 Disney Marathon.
-But to incentivize you to predict in more races, for every race you play in above and beyond the required minimum of a HM and the M, you get a bonus 15 seconds. That means if someone plays in 6 total races (HM, M and 4 other races), then they'll get 60 bonus seconds (15*4) off their final time when the game is over. The bonus will not be applied until after the Disney Marathon. The bonus will not hurt you. So if you have 60 second bonus time, and you end with a +/- 45 second final score, then you end with 0:00 as your final adjusted score.
In the event of a tie, then the bonuses will be removed from each of the tied players to the unadjusted final score. Whomever is closer to 0:00, will be the winner. In the event, that after removal of bonuses the unadjusted values are still tied, then it will be decided by some game decided by Gigi at a later point.
Current Race Schedule
This may or may not change based on how the 2019 season plays out.
4/12/2019 - One Mile Time Trial *Has occurred
5/25/2019 - Brat Fest 5k *Has occurred
9/22/2019 - DoLittle HM *Has occurred
10/20/2019 - Haunted Hustle HM *Has occurred
11/10/2019 - Madison HM *Has occurred
1/12/2020 - Disney Marathon *To be guessed on
To be eligible to win, you must predict a Disney Marathon time.
*****
Disney Marathon!
-It's pretty darn flat.
-The GAP is usually -1 second.
-My Garmin GPS usually measures 26.33 to 26.44 miles.
-My Garmin VO2max has been bouncing around 57 to 59 depending on the type of workout. In best case scenarios, that would be 3:01:30 - 3:07:30.
-On November 10th, I ran the Madison HM in 1:28:40. It measured 13.19 mile on my Garmin. The average pace was a 6:43 min/mile. The average GAP was a 6:39 min/mile. A 1:28:40 HM straight up predicts a 3:05 - 3:10. The grade adjusted HM would be a 1:28:00 and predict a 3:03 - 3:08. My HR during this HM was 148. My previous HMs with the same GPS watch have been 153, 154, 150, and 151. My Ms with the same GPS watch have been 145, 151, 149, and 140 (Chicago).
The hardest thing for me to determine is how much the cycling on Saturday has influenced the Sunday LR. So I included the data for the TSS Prior (Saturday's total) and whether it was a morning/evening workout or a consecutive (brick) workout. In this training plan, I had 8 training runs at 130 min or longer. I'm not entirely sure, but I'm pretty sure that's a new PR for me in a single training plan. Surprisingly, the recovery from the 12/29/19 workout was pretty quick. I felt pretty good on Monday.
The I pace workouts have been fun during this training cycle. I've been putting together some speed workouts with PRs at 200, 400, 800, and 1000m. So speed wise, I'm about as fast as I've ever been. The last workout prior to the Nov HM I ran 5 x 3 min at 6:00 average. My workout on 12/18 was 5.75 x 4 min at 5:52 average.
I had a hard time getting my HR up (or pace faster) during these LT to HM Tempo effort workouts. It's likely because of the Wednesday I pace workout, and then Thursday morning cycle workout. Those morning workouts were generally 90-120 min long and rather intense. Only twice did the TSS for the morning workout drop below 100 and both times it was a sub-6:40 pace. HM Tempo historical HR with this watch is 152. The last workout prior to the Nov HM was a 6:52 min/mile continuous workout at 151.5 HR. Then on race day I did 6:39 at a 148 HR. The workout on 12/26 was really strong with a 3+2+1 at 6:41 average with 152 HR while being supremely overdressed.
In my past training plans, my peak weekend workouts would normally be a 90 min Saturday run + 150 min Sunday run. In this training plan, my peak workout was a 240 min cycle + 90 min Saturday brick run and then on Sunday a 140 min long run. How much did that 240 min cycle matter in terms of fatigue resistance and building fitness?
Probably the only other run of note was on 12/15/19. It was 4 hours of IM cycling followed by 75 min at M Tempo effort. I ended up averaging a 7:00 min/mile (GAP) for 10.65 miles at a HR of 143. This was done in my Saucony Kinvaras.
My taper plan is very reminiscent of the taper I used prior to the November HM.
Some times/paces to keep in mind. The paces are based on a GPS distance of 26.40 miles.
Current PR - 3:14:05; 7:21 min/mile
Boston Qualify - 3:05:00; 7:00 min/mile
BQ minus - 3:01:12; 6:52 min/mile*
Sub-3 - 3:00:00; 6:49 min/mile
*Based on the last 4 years of BQ standards the cutoff time has dropped by 1:15, 1:29, 1:47 from the previous year. Based on this, the time would drop by 2:09 min from the previous cutoff (1:39). So the 2021 BQ projection would be -3:48. However, the weather for Chicago and New York was apparently quite good and there was a size-able jump in BQs. So that number might be even lower than a -3:48.
The Current Standings
So as a reminder, the goal is to have a season ending score of 0:00.
Players with a (-) number in the cumulative time off column want to guess a time slower than they actually think I will run. Players with a (+) number in the cumulative time off column want to guess a time faster than they actually think I will run.
As a reminder, at this point in the game anyone can still win it. It all comes down to this!
So for example, let's use @SheHulk as an example. She currently has predicted +63 seconds (too slow) based on the prior races. Let's say SheHulk actually thinks I'll run a 3:00:00 M at Disney. Since she's currently sitting at +63, then she would actually want to guess a 2:58:57 (3:00:00 - 63 seconds) if she believes I'll run a 3:00:00 flat. This will cancel out the amount of time off she was from the other two races and get her back to zero.
Players with a (-) number in the cumulative time off column want to guess a time slower than they actually think I will run. Players with a (+) number in the cumulative time off column want to guess a time faster than they actually think I will run.
As a reminder, you must play in the Disney Marathon prediction game to be eligible to win. So while @Jules76126 currently has a cumulative guess of 0 seconds, she can not pass on the Disney Marathon and automatically win.
The winner will be determined by the person with the closest to zero cumulative time from the season long contest after using the bonuses that everyone has accumulated. If for example, your cumulative time is less than your bonus amount (you finish after the marathon with 30 seconds off and you have 60 seconds of bonus available), then your time goes to zero. There is no additional gain by being closer than the amount of bonus you have. However, in the event of a tie, then the bonuses will be removed from each of the tied players to the unadjusted final score. Whomever is closer to 0:00, will be the winner. In the event, that after removal of bonuses the unadjusted values are still tied, then it will be decided by some game decided by Gigi at a later point.
Everyone has until 48 hours prior to the race to get their prediction in. So your guess is due by Friday, January 10th at 5am.
The marathon equivalent of 88.8 miles per hour. I just can't break from my Doc Brown Back to the Future guess. "Where we're going we don't need roads."
The marathon equivalent of 88.8 miles per hour. I just can't break from my Doc Brown Back to the Future guess. "Where we're going we don't need roads."
Start at 5am and end at 8am
1/3/20 - T+D of 139-139, 71% cloudy, 33% chance of rain, 6mph SSE wind
Well, there's that. It's early for FL weather, but the trend certainly says warm weather at the moment. But maybe a cooling trend will start to occur in the days after and it leaks over into the marathon. Thankfully, the start is at 5:00am and the sun rise isn't until 7:20-7:30am. So the large majority of the race is in guaranteed darkness. If the temps hold, it will certainly be less than ideal conditions. But I remain confident that I will do the best I can regardless of the conditions. The weather is reminiscent of the 2016 Disney Marathon. Recap from about 4 years ago:
Sunday - Marathon day
All month leading up to the marathon, the big question was what will the weather be like. At no point, did it look like based on the weather forecast we would have 65-68 and near 100% humidity but that's what we got. Oh well. I felt really sore the morning of the marathon, but maybe less sore than the past two years. I went into the run with the same plan, just let my body do what it wants. I ran the first couple miles easy and was settling into a nice pace. I knew based on my goal (sub 7 hr Dopey) and my previous three race times I needed a 4:09 in the marathon. I started to get stronger around mile 10 and put in some strong miles (as low as 8:10). However, around mile 19 I was starting to feel the fatigue of the other days. My pace started to slip, but I decided to just ignore it and keep letting my effort dictate my pace. As long as I didn't start walking I knew I should finish below 4:09 and get that sub-7. I crossed the line in 3:55:35 and started crying. Months of hard work paid off and I finished Dopey 2016 in 6:45:30. It looks like I came in 160th place out of 6323 finishers. I'm very happy with this performance. As for the changes to the race course, I enjoyed doing the extra mileage in MK. I was indifferent to the added out/back before Animal Kingdom. Although, I didn't like the added mileage in Animal Kingdom because I'm not a fan of the terrain (intentionally pitted road with uneven surfaces).
Now that Dopey is over I can take 2 weeks off from running and get back into family mode. In two weeks, I'll start training again using the Hansons method for my May marathon (a re-do of the same marathon that gave me my worst finish 4:58). My true focus for 2016 though is Chicago. I ran Lakefront in 2015 and Chicago in 2016 with the hope to choose whichever course I like better for my first BQ attempt in Fall 2017. Based on an improvement of about 5-10% every 18 week training cycle I should be around a 3:00 marathon in Fall 2017. Could plateau before that, but I'm feeling more confident it will be possible.
I decided to go back to December 2017 and pull all the 10-day forecasts together to see how much it changed. Here are all the Weather Underground predictions.
My Doc Brown guess will be wrong. It's not fast enough, but I'm not changing it. I haven't yet figured out the mathematical equivalent of ludicrous speed from Spaceballs yet.
1/5/17 - 5k - 58/54 = 112
1/6/17 - 10k - 53/52 = 105
1/7/17 - HM - 72/69 = 131 *cancelled due to lightning
1/8/17 - M - 36-48F; WC of 25-35
8 days out from the HM was not even close. I don't think the temp prediction dropped for the M until 4-5 days before it happened. The 9 day out prediction "feels like" was off by 12-22 degrees from reality for the M.
Start at 5am and end at 8am
1/3/20 - T+D of 139-139, 71% cloudy, 33% chance of rain, 6mph SSE wind 1/4/20 - T+D of 140-140, 50% cloudy, 15% chance of rain, 7mph SE wind
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