VDH resale prices are lower than I expected.

[Red Dog Run]

I noticed a nice handful of VDH is already selling. I was a bit surprised at the average resale prices of the contracts, but maybe that's because of the high tag of VGC.

 

[MyDogTink]

Could it be because of the resale restrictions?

 

[bbeagle]

When you sell VDH, you’re not really selling a DVC contract, just a VDH contract. Prices should be a LOT lower. I wouldn’t pay more than $75 a point for them.

 

[aammtt20]

A combination of the resale restrictions, the nightly taxes, the dues, and the fact there are more rooms, so it lacks the scarcity of grand Californian - all of that would be my thinking.

 

[CWTC]

A combination of the resale restrictions, the nightly taxes, the dues, and the fact there are more rooms, so it lacks the scarcity of grand Californian - all of that would be my thinking.

We’ve been spoiled by our 15+ years of being DVC owners - that ToT tax makes it a hard no for us. There’s just something about having the room “prepaid.” We’d probably feel differently if we’ve been paying hotel taxes and tourist taxes all these years at Disney.

I do wonder if after a few years it will be hard to book at 7 months and maybe that would make a restricted VDH contract more attractive to people.

 

[CastAStone]

I noticed a nice handful of VDH is already selling. I was a bit surprised at the average resale prices of the contracts, but maybe that's because of the high tag of VGC.

That’s interesting. I feel kind of the opposite, that the price is surprisingly high when you can get a new one for only maybe 20% more. I can’t help but notice they’re all just sitting.

I think we’re going to see VDH in the $130s as soon as 2025. But I also expect VGC to keep falling in price some too.

 

[AstroBlasters]

That’s interesting. I feel kind of the opposite, that the price is surprisingly high when you can get a new one for only maybe 20% more. I can’t help but notice they’re all just sitting.

I think we’re going to see VDH in the $130s as soon as 2025. But I also expect VGC to keep falling in price some too.

Just wait until the refurbishment…..

 

[Red Dog Run]

That’s interesting. I feel kind of the opposite, that the price is surprisingly high when you can get a new one for only maybe 20% more. I can’t help but notice they’re all just sitting.

I think we’re going to see VDH in the $130s as soon as 2025. But I also expect VGC to keep falling in price some too.

I didn't think about all of the "extras" that go with the resort. I'd hate to have a bill for taxes AND be paying dues along with the purchase price. When I take that into account, I'd significantly lower my offer, too. s

 

[SpicyMcHaggis]

It definitely feels bad to me to have the separate taxes for a stay plus any dues - it's a primary reason I'm not interested in buying points there. With the recent agreement stating that this tax scheme will be required going into the future, I don't see this going away for any future offerings at Disneyland either.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I don’t think the VDH target market is WDW DVCers, I think it’s people who are paying cash at the Disney or neighbor hotels in Anaheim who are already paying the TOT on the hotel room.

 

[DanCali]

I noticed a nice handful of VDH is already selling. I was a bit surprised at the average resale prices of the contracts, but maybe that's because of the high tag of VGC.

And just remember that asking prices are not resale prices. Even the "resale prices" listed on various websites and aggregators are just asking prices. In reality, average sales price would be lower.

Whatever the prices are now, they will be a lot lower in 5 years, when supply increases to a "steady state". Right now, it's probably just a handful of sellers.

 

[superlarz]

I don’t think the VDH target market is WDW DVCers, I think it’s people who are paying cash at the Disney or neighbor hotels in Anaheim who are already paying the TOT on the hotel room.

I think it is a mix, but you are absolutely right - as some one who is a WDW DVC member, and someone who paid cash at the hotels in Anaheim and always hated the "Good Neighbor" hotels, I dont mind the ToT that much, but it does add up. Still, id rather pay for it on a say than to have that number added to my dues. If I use the points elsewhere someone else is on the hook to pay the taxes. The meeting with Anaheim city council last night also basically confirmed that and future DVC (in Anaheim) is going to have ToT added to it as well

 

[NorCalFanatic]

All those contracts are sitting there as the sellers refuse to negotiate and one of them is completely MIA….i know as we’ve tried.

With the projected sellout date of around 2030, likely around the time we’ll see the first part of Disneyland forward opening, I’m sure the resale prices will increase a bit when VDH gets its own park entrance. $165-$175 resale will seem like a bargain when the next DVC Hotel opens at $300ish in 7+ years.

I also agree that VDH isn’t targeting the WDW crowd. They’re targeting people like us, who were previously paying $$$ in cash every year staying on property. This year alone we’ve saved about $20K over a cash stay with the 2 trips we’ve done so far to VDH on points. I’ll happily pay the TOT (which is still less than cash stay).

 

[AstroBlasters]

All those contracts are sitting there as the sellers refuse to negotiate and one of them is completely MIA….i know as we’ve tried.

With the projected sellout date of around 2030, likely around the time we’ll see the first part of Disneyland forward opening, I’m sure the resale prices will increase a bit when VDH gets its own park entrance. $165-$175 resale will seem like a bargain when the next DVC Hotel opens at $300ish in 7+ years.

I also agree that VDH isn’t targeting the WDW crowd. They’re targeting people like us, who were previously paying $$$ in cash every year staying on property. This year alone we’ve saved about $20K over a cash stay with the 2 trips we’ve done so far to VDH on points. I’ll happily pay the TOT (which is still less than cash stay).

I still don’t see a reason to buy VDH resale over direct. You could never use it at VGC, AUL, or any other new DVC offering.

 

[NorCalFanatic]

I still don’t see a reason to buy VDH resale over direct. You could never use it at VGC, AUL, or any other new DVC offering.

If you’re only using it for DLR, why not? We spend 20+ days at the DLR resort every year split between 2 long trips and one short trip. We know several other locals who make multiple trips to DLR a year, and have never been to WDW.

We’ll only likely make one trip to WDW down the line as we have little interest in WDW and we can use our direct points for that. We’ve got 1000+ AUL points for AUL. We’re interested in resale VDH to pad our VDH direct points. So every stay can be in a 2 BR instead of alternating 1BR/2BR. We’ve stayed at the grand California, and while its lobby and location are nice, not fans of the rooms (old and busted) much prefer the DLH or VDH. Plus the amount of points we’d need there for 20 days out of the year in a 1 or 2 BR is insane. VDH is a better fit for us.

I expect once more Disneyland Forward stuff comes out that’ll be a big marketing push as well.

 

[AstroBlasters]

If you’re only using it for DLR, why not? We spend 20+ days at the DLR resort every year split between 2 long trips and one short trip. We know several other locals who make multiple trips to DLR a year, and have never been to WDW.

We’ll only likely make one trip to WDW down the line as we have little interest in WDW and we can use our direct points for that. We’ve got 1000+ AUL points for AUL. We’re interested in resale VDH to pad our VDH direct points. So every stay can be in a 2 BR instead of alternating 1BR/2BR. We’ve stayed at the grand California, and while its lobby and location are nice, not fans of the rooms (old and busted) much prefer the DLH or VDH. Plus the amount of points we’d need there for 20 days out of the year in a 1 or 2 BR is insane. VDH is a better fit for us.

I expect once more Disneyland Forward stuff comes out that’ll be a big marketing push as well.

I just don’t think it makes any sense to limit yourself to one option when there really isn’t much of a price difference.

Will you only want to go to VDH every year for 49 years or will you ever want to try somewhere else at the new DLand DVC offerings?

The resale contracts are all ridiculously overpriced, IMO.

 

[NorCalFanatic]

I just don’t think it makes any sense to limit yourself to one option when there really isn’t much of a price difference.

Will you only want to go to VDH every year for 49 years or will you ever want to try somewhere else at the new DLand DVC offerings?

The resale contracts are all ridiculously overpriced, IMO.

Well....I don't plan to live another 49 years, but who knows, maybe I can go on my 101st BD! Reality is at our ages, we're hoping to get 20-25 years of visits, at that point we'll be pushing 80. When the kids our out of the house, we're already planning a month at Aulani. Zero interest in spending a month in Florida....

We have 900ish VDH direct points. We can use them at any new DLand DVC offering if we want, or the 500ish Direct points we have have at Aulani (balance is resale).

Again, we'd like to add on resale VDH if it hits $150 (or below) to pad our direct balance. Then every stay can be in a 2BR (or maybe one trip with extended family in a grand villa for a week plus).

We've already got plenty of Direct points between VDH and Aulani for anything else we'd like to do. This is to pad our existing points to upgrade our stays.

 

[CastAStone]

I still don’t see a reason to buy VDH resale over direct. You could never use it at VGC, AUL, or any other new DVC offering.

At $400-$600 per night for a 1 bedroom just in dues and TOT, there’s no price I would buy at, direct or resale. There’s far, far too many good suite options nearby that cost that or less than that, with no real on site benefits, and if I can luck into a VGC 1 bedroom at 7 months again, that’s about 25% less (on average) too.

Ultimately that’s why my expectations for resale value are so pitiful for the property.

 

[DanCali]

I still don’t see a reason to buy VDH resale over direct.

It seems like this sentence should end with "...at these prices"

Will you only want to go to VDH every year for 49 years or will you ever want to try somewhere else at the new DLand DVC offerings?

The resale contracts are all ridiculously overpriced, IMO.

You kind of implied that here.

I think most people may have a price at which they would probably buy a resort with these resale restrictions, if they were interested in that resort. Would you buy VDH resale it if it was $120/pt? 100/pt? 80/pt? 60/pt? Maybe it will get to that price, and maybe it won't - that all depends on where other buyers stand on the issue. I would probably pull the trigger on Riviera if it ever got to "my number" - at least I love the resort enough to consider it.

In the meantime, there are plenty of other resorts to play with in my lifetime that are not restricted, and about 1/3 of our points have access to all resorts at 7 months, so I can watch the market opportunistically and not stress about it too much.

 

[nalababybear]

$130 resale MAY get my attention to use for VDH. ToT and high MFs that's already gone up this year are going to be big drags on this as much as the resale restrictions.

ToT is not going away. With the city council presentation a key brag was the ToT arrangement with VDH and that's going to be replicated with future timeshares. Disney has 2600 rooms authorized to build -- they already show a Pixar tower on the DisneyForward specs.

Don't anticipate ANY significant DisneyForward land to open prior to 2028; and that would probably be DCA first as DCA desparately needs more rides to pull into its area.

Sellout of VDH maybe 2030 at current pace unless significant incentives pull that shorter.

VDH certainly will become more enticing if/when DisneyForward back entries are announced -- It's not like Riviera got one for Epcot, so be mindful of that.