Which site is more accurate, Kenny the Pirate or Touring Plans?

[MegMouseketeer]

Kenny only one who is predicting high crowds for Jersey Week (first in November)-all the others have 4-6 level crowd predictions. From everything I have seen and read so far, and based upon last year, I'm guessing he will be the only one who was right about that week.

Yep, I think Touring Plans tends to predict on the low side. I would rather have predictions be on the high side and end up pleasantly surprised. Touring Plans predicted this week to be low-moderate. KTP predicted insane crowds. Apparently, it was insane crowds at MK yesterday... He got it way more correct than TP. KTP has this whole week at Insane. I am anxious to see if it continues!

 

[jerseyjersey]

Yep, I think Touring Plans tends to predict on the low side. I would rather have predictions be on the high side and end up pleasantly surprised. Touring Plans predicted this week to be low-moderate. KTP predicted insane crowds. Apparently, it was insane crowds at MK yesterday... He got it way more correct than TP. KTP has this whole week at Insane. I am anxious to see if it continues!

Agree, and I agree with you about TP being on the low side. On one visit to DL, TP predicted 4 or 5 level crowds, and the actual crowd level ended up at a 9 once they looked at the actual numbers. It was our first DL visit in a long time, and we were thinking "wow, if this is a 4-5 crowd, I can't imagine a 9 or 10!"

 

[kennythepirate]

Yep, I think Touring Plans tends to predict on the low side. I would rather have predictions be on the high side and end up pleasantly surprised. Touring Plans predicted this week to be low-moderate. KTP predicted insane crowds. Apparently, it was insane crowds at MK yesterday... He got it way more correct than TP. KTP has this whole week at Insane. I am anxious to see if it continues!

Comparing today to last Thursday. Both were party days.
Last Thursday rated at a 624 on my scale
Today rated at a 904 on my scale.
If my fuzzy math is correct, that's a 45ish% increase over last week for a party day.
Normal party days run 600-700 on the KtP scale.
Haunted Mansion, for example, went from 21 minute avg wait to 34 minute avg wait.
7DMT went from 65 to 85 avg

I won't speak for anyone else's site. I just try to provide info based on my predictions and try to help people plan their days effectively. Especially those who wish to incorporate character meets and shows along with rides.

 

[patty57]

@kennythepirate...looking forward to your May 2018 Crowd Calendar to help with my planning. for all your efforts.

 

[DanielNYC]

I don't use crowd calendars .. I don't see the point as there is just too many unknown factors to accurately determine crowds unless you are WDW itself and knows how many Fast Passes have been scheduled for any particular day and/or how full the resorts are.

I just pick a "general" good time of year (aka . .not a holiday, not Spring Break, etc.) and just go with the flow. Just plan when YOU want to go and go with it. There is no "perfect" time to go anymore I feel.

Same here. We just rope drop and try to schedule fast passes that make sense and take it from there. On this last trip I even made the rookie mistake of going on a morning EMH day at Epcot after no longer being a on-site resort guest. It was not at all the disaster I was led to believe it would be.

 

[Duck143]

@kennythepirate...looking forward to your May 2018 Crowd Calendar to help with my planning. for all your efforts.

Me too! I can't wait! Kenny, will you send an email when you release the May 2018 calendar?

 

[kennythepirate]

Me too! I can't wait! Kenny, will you send an email when you release the May 2018 calendar?

Yes

 

[lovethesun12]

I used TP for our Easter trip this year. They were spot on. I almost cancelled because everywhere else said it was going to be crazy crowded. I followed TP days & we were fine! A most enjoyable trip.

I have to agree. I was scared but went to MK Easter Saturday and it was not too bad at all.

I found EMH days at the other parks brutal though (even though the EMH hour was good). I might try to mix it up a bit this time.

I think all the sites do a really good job of predicting though I have to say. They all come very close to the crowd level.

 

[lovethesun12]

Are you going over Easter 2018? Which park would you recommend for Easter Sunday?

I am going! I'm planning to do MK! They really are all busy. I think I would choose anything besides Hollywood Studios (unless you plan to take full advantage of the EMH).

During Easter you really have to expect the worst and hope for the best! Easter is earlier this year than last so more likely to coincide with March breaks. I'm expecting it to be busier :/

 

[10CJ]

I am going! I'm planning to do MK! They really are all busy. I think I would choose anything besides Hollywood Studios (unless you plan to take full advantage of the EMH).

During Easter you really have to expect the worst and hope for the best! Easter is earlier this year than last so more likely to coincide with March breaks. I'm expecting it to be busier :/

Thanks! I am debating between EP and MK for Easter Sunday. I am leaning towards EP but I may not make my final decision until I have a better idea of park hours for our whole trip. I am expecting the worst for the whole trip since we have never been over a peak time before. We do have park hoppers and we are staying onsite so I am prepare to bail on our selected park if need be.

 

[kevandliz]

Kenny, Always love your site and your advice!

We're going next week, October 17 - 24. Can you comment on those particular days? Thanks to you, I was able to select all Green parks, except for Saturday the 21st (we're doing Disney Springs and Epcot), and Monday the 23rd (We're doing Epcot 'Green Park' then Magic Kingdom at night) as that was the only time we could get a Be Our Guest Dinner and see Happily Ever After.

Tues 17 - No Parks, Arrival Day
Wed 18 - Epcot
Thurs 19 - MK
Fri 20 - AK
Sat - Disney Springs & Epcot
Sun - MK & AK
Mon - Epcot & MK
Tues - Hollywood Studios

Again, could you please comment on the particular days, and do you have your scale already in place for those parks on those days? If so, could I see those numbers? Curious which ones are in the 600s and which ones are 4-digits.

Thank you again for everything you do, your character locator is invaluable to me and my now 33 month old son!

 

[lovethesun12]

Thanks! I am debating between EP and MK for Easter Sunday. I am leaning towards EP but I may not make my final decision until I have a better idea of park hours for our whole trip. I am expecting the worst for the whole trip since we have never been over a peak time before. We do have park hoppers and we are staying onsite so I am prepare to bail on our selected park if need be.

That's an awesome idea! If my kids weren't so young I would do that. Usually if we are leaving the park we are done =)

 

[debdebdebby13]

For our trip I think KtP and TP disagree on almost every day! At least from the standpoint of low crowds vs best/worst park.

 

[Runnsally]

Do pirates know C++?

 

[kennythepirate]

Do pirates know C++?

I only made a few C's in school. Usually A's

 

[stinkpickle]

Do pirates know C++?

Q. What programming language do pirates use?
A. "The C"

 

[WillowRain]

I have a question. For January 17th, Tuesday after MLK day, you have INSANE crowds. TP and Undercovertourist have it as a 4. We chose HS that day which all sites agree will be the best park, but why do you think crowds will be insane?

 

[TNBishop]

Kenny - registered to your site and have a question. I'm staying at BLT with park hopper. If leaving the parks early afternoon, would it be better to take advantage of morning MK EMH regardless of color coding?

Jan 18 (MK Green, Epcot Red)
Jan 19 (MK Red, Epcot Green) - 8:00 AM MK opening

I wanted to do MK on Jan 19 to take advantage of early hours. But your chart scared me.

 

[kennythepirate]

Kenny - registered to your site and have a question. I'm staying at BLT with park hopper. If leaving the parks early afternoon, would it be better to take advantage of morning MK EMH regardless of color coding?

Jan 18 (MK Green, Epcot Red)
Jan 19 (MK Red, Epcot Green) - 8:00 AM MK opening

I wanted to do MK on Jan 19 to take advantage of early hours. But your chart scared me.

If you're planning to leave early, then EMH on 19th is a benefit to you.

 

[kennythepirate]

Me too! I can't wait! Kenny, will you send an email when you release the May 2018 calendar?

Did you get the email?