Why?

[pryncess527]

It also lives on surfaces, cardboard boxes, etc.

 

[DeniseJH]

Found it: From MIT Technology Review

"Munster (NIH) and his coworkers say spreading via the air likely explains 'super spreader' events like the one that appears to have occurred in Boston, where more than 70 people are believed to have been infected at a conference held by the biotechnology company Biogen."

"Swished around in the air chamber, the germs remained for about three hours."

 

[sam_gordon]

You’re not happy to learn. You are dismissing every explanation to your questions. You are not actually meaningfully responding to anything beyond reiterating your belief that the mortality rate is probably lower than people say it is and ignoring everyone trying to explain that it’s not just purely about mortality rate. The overconfidence and arrogance is rightfully annoying to a lot of people. Who cares that you think it’s an overreaction even after people have patiently explained why it’s not? You are not an expert!

So skip the thread.

Yes, this is a description of the R naught factor that is spoken of. For anyone interested in learning about the science and educating themselves on the facts - this is discussed very well in the article that I already linked on the first page of this thread.

https://arstechnica.com/science/202...ensive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/
There it is again in case you missed it. It contains a lot of solid facts and information that is quite helpful to understand.

Thank you.

Your last sentence says it all. Lots of Americans are just unwilling to do that. Indeed OP's original premise is that if we wash our hands and don't touch our face, we can't get it. Therefore, if you do, it's your fault and you deserve what you get. That is implicit in this discussion from OP's point of view. It's all about what happens to OP personally, and the rest of us, including the most vulnerable, well, too bad for them. Stop touching your face. Eyeroll.

The "wash hands and don't touch your face" is not mine. It's been all over the news and press conferences for the last week or more. And no, I don't believe anyone "deserves" what they get if they don't do that. I think if someone gets sick, they're unlucky.

If reading my posts make you upset, then feel free to put me on ignore. Honestly, this is what I thought would happen when I started the thread... "you're ignorant", "you don't care about others", etc.

 

[snappy]

Found it: From MIT Technology Review

"Munster (NIH) and his coworkers say spreading via the air likely explains 'super spreader' events like the one that appears to have occurred in Boston, where more than 70 people are believed to have been infected at a conference held by the biotechnology company Biogen."

"Swished around in the air chamber, the germs remained for about three hours."

Thanks for posting.

 

[wilbret]

Really? Out of the 1.4 BILLION people in China, only 80K have caught it. But you believe everyone will catch it?

I'm not saying don't take precautions. I just think the precautions being taken (at least some of them) are extreme.

So you believe China’s numbers?

 

[BuckeyeBama]

If reading my posts make you upset, then feel free to put me on ignore. Honestly, this is what I thought would happen when I started the thread... "you're ignorant", "you don't care about others", etc.

Saying a person is ignorant (which I have not done) is not an insult. It suggests that the person is not aware of the facts. In this thread you have demonstrated that you were unaware of many of the relevant facts. For instance, you were not even aware of the R0 factor of this virus, and why that proves that this spreads far more easily than the flu.

There is no shame in ignorance. How can we know what we have not been exposed to? And how can we correct our ignorance without asking questions, which you have also done.

This is a meaningful thread. It asks an important question. Why should we be worried about this virus? I wonder, though - will people who enter the thread ignorant of these facts accept the facts which fill that void in their knowledge, or will they continue to just believe that this is no more dangerous than the flu?

 

[sam_gordon]

Yes, this is a description of the R naught factor that is spoken of. For anyone interested in learning about the science and educating themselves on the facts - this is discussed very well in the article that I already linked on the first page of this thread.

https://arstechnica.com/science/202...ensive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/
There it is again in case you missed it. It contains a lot of solid facts and information that is quite helpful to understand.

I said "thank you" earlier, but this is a very interesting article, regardless of your thoughts on the virus.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

On the flip side there could be elderly people who have died and it was attributed to old age. But they may have contracted the virus. The mortality rate may also be higher then what is being reported.

The first death in our state was a man in his 70s in a long term care facility with underlying cardiac issues. He passed away in the hospital but a test was done after his death and he was positive for COVID-19. 5 of the firefighters who helped transport him are now under self-isolation to err on the side of caution.

It's considered our first community spread as he had not traveled. They are looking into how he may have gotten it. In the midst of the investigation it was found that the long term care facility he was in is connected to the same long term care facility that had multiple deaths in Seattle. Whether that contributed, by failures on the long term care facility or some other means, isn't yet confirmed.

In any case the man was high risk of course but it does show that had that test not been done he would have not been a known case at all (of course we all know there are many unknown cases).

 

[Jen81NYC]

I think we're looking at the wrong percentage though. Compare the number who die to total population, NOT to the number who catch it. Yes, corona has a higher mortality for those who catch it, but the number who catch it is much lower.

And how is it "more contagious"?

You keep claiming you’re not saying you’re an expert but the above is mind blowing in its wrongness. Just painfully flawed thinking—it’s essentially saying that the way everyone else is thinking about the mortality rate is wrong. It is one thing for someone ask—“I don’t understand why the experts think this is so bad—can someone please explain why they think this?” and another thing to essentially say “why are experts and everyone else overreacting because to me, an unqualified person, this is not that big a deal?” You are doing the latter. And it is hard to ignore because you are part of USA society and presumably your lack of understanding and overconfidence in your flawed thinking is common to others too, and it is essential that this lack of understanding be rectified as much as possible for the benefit of all of us. I had been hopeful that some of the replies would provide some clarity to you but that doesn’t seem to be the case, unfortunately. However, I’m still hopeful this thread is useful to others who are not so wedded to their incorrect conclusions, so that’s why I’ve been contributing!

 

[sam_gordon]

Saying a person is ignorant (which I have not done) is not an insult. It suggests that the person is not aware of the facts. In this thread you have demonstrated that you were unaware of many of the relevant facts. For instance, you were not even aware of the R0 factor of this virus, and why that proves that this spreads far more easily than the flu.

There is no shame in ignorance. How can we know what we have not been exposed to? And how can we correct our ignorance without asking questions, which you have also done.

This is a meaningful thread. It asks an important question. Why should we be worried about this virus? I wonder, though - will people who enter the thread ignorant of these facts accept the facts which fill that void in their knowledge, or will they continue to just believe that this is no more dangerous than the flu?

You are correct. But one should not be surprised if calling someone ignorant is taken as an insult. The problem with message boards is everyone is an expert and no one is an expert. I don't remember if it was you who posted the R0 factors or someone else, but how do I know YOU have the right information? In this thread, the statement was made that "the incubation period is AT LEAST 14 days". That's flat out not true. I do some research and post a link where the incubation period, while it can be as long as 14 days, the average is around 5 days. Does the person who made that claim so "oops, I was wrong"? No. It's "well, it could be 14 days".

And, my original purpose for the thread is "Why panic?". The article that @wgeo linked even starts off with "don't panic". Do I think social distancing and cancelling all the various events will help mitigate the spread of the disease? Of course. Do I think all the steps that various people/companies are taking are all absolutely necessary? No. Should a building be evacuated because there's been a positive case from an employee? I don't think so. We're supposed to wipe surfaces when we walk into a meeting and when we walk out. There's a run on TP and food stuffs. These are the kinds of things I'm referring to.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

You are correct. But one should not be surprised if calling someone ignorant is taken as an insult. The problem with message boards is everyone is an expert and no one is an expert. I don't remember if it was you who posted the R0 factors or someone else, but how do I know YOU have the right information?

You shouldn't blindly accept it. You can google it in second to confirm. This article came up in the search and talks about the death rate and R0 factor, comparing the flu with this virus. How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu?

There are countless articles out there and you can compare/contrast what you read in them. But you can't just accept ignorance - you have to try to find the answers.

Otherwise, why did you ask the question in the first place?

 

[Skywalker]

OK, I'm sorry, I don't get it. Why is corona virus so scary? Scary enough to close schools, Disney, various businesses, sporting events, travel bans, "social distancing", etc.

I get it. The mortality rate *IF* you get it is much higher than the flu. BUT, most of the deaths are those who have underlying medical issues. Shouldn't they be used to taking extra precautions at this time of year so they don't get the flu anyway? Sure, there's a vaccine for the flu, but that doesn't mean you won't catch it. The vaccine isn't always for the correct strain.

CDC estimates 36M - 55M in the US alone will come down with the flu, resulting in 22k-55k deaths. Source
There have been 146K corona cases WORLDWIDE resulting in 5K deaths. Source
The flu kills 291k-646K worldwide each year. Source
Over 150K died world wide from H1N1 in 2009. Source

So the flu regularly KILLS more people every year than the number of corona virus cases.
H1N1 killed more people than there are corona cases. Yes, obviously the number of corona cases will increase. But why was there no panic in 2009?
Is this being blown out of proportion?

I'm sure I'll get blasted for asking the question

I don't see why it's necessary to compare it to the flu anyway. Do people say, hey well cancer kills X number of people so why even care about diabetes? That thinking makes no sense.

This is a virus that is currently spreading worldwide. It is killing people. So, experts are trying to help us contain it so healthcare systems do not become overwhelmed. People are hoarding because they are afraid of being in forced quarantine / lockdown situations. I don't like it, I hate seeing my shelves empty and people shouldn't panic, but, I mean, it's not that complicated.

 

[pryncess527]

No one should ever “panic” for any reason. No matter the situation, “panic” never helps

Which is part of why people who are planning and preparing resent others acting like it’s panic.
We are trying to answer why it’s scary. Why it’s different than epidemics in the past. Why taking steps early is critical for health systems

 

[BuckeyeBama]

I don't see why it's necessary to compare it to the flu anyway. Do people say, hey well cancer kills X number of people so why even care about diabetes? That thinking makes no sense.

This is a virus that is currently spreading worldwide. It is killing people. So, experts are trying to help us contain it so healthcare systems do not become overwhelmed. People are hoarding because they are afraid of being in forced quarantine / lockdown situations. I don't like it, I hate seeing my shelves empty and people shouldn't panic, but, I mean, it's not that complicated.

It helps people put it into context. The flu is a known, though probably not well enough understood, disease.

But you main point is valid. Even if we had no other disease with which we could compare this, it is killing people right here in America.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

I would pose a different question - what if the 15% death rate was in our youngest population instead of the oldest? What if 15% of our children aged 0-5 were dying when they caught this disease? Would anyone in America be downplaying its severity? Anyone?

 

[lifesavacation]

I think you're right. And that would make the mortality rate drop.

While you are technically right, it is speculated that the deaths in China were underreported. The underreported deaths would cancel out the underreported positive cases. Purely speculation, though. Data from other countries will help clarify the mortality rate.

 

[Farro]

I would pose a different question - what if the 15% death rate was in our youngest population instead of the oldest? What if 15% of our children aged 0-5 were dying when they caught this disease? Would anyone in America be downplaying its severity? Anyone?

That's not really a fair comparison.

Of course a disease that kills young, healthy children is going to taken more seriously by more people.
It would be devastating to almost everyone's future and quite frankly much more tragic to lose children.

I say this with my 81 year old parents on my mind but when a disease is more deadly to the old or already sick, it's easier for people to accept.
To put it bluntly, most people reason it by saying they were going to die soon anyways. Not saying that's right, but it's just human nature.

 

[DeniseJH]

But it's not just people in their 80's.

 

[Farro]

But it's not just people in their 80's.

Yes, we know.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

That's not really a fair comparison.

Yes, it is. The reality - we value children more than the elderly in America.