Winter '23-'24 Incentives Poll - will we see a month with Riviera 100K direct sales?

[DanCali]

Now that VGF base price is $230/pt and has no sales incentives, Riviera is truly the cheapest WDW resort by far. Riviera's base price remained at $217, and the purchase price for 150-500 points is $195-$200. While a $30+ per point difference is substantial, if VGF is also now ineligible for MB and Riviera buyers get a $20/pt rebate in exchange for first-year points (bringing the initial cash outlay to $175-$180/pt after the rebate), this potentially makes Riviera even more attractive relative to VGF's $230/pt price to some buyers. And, as the cheapest resort, salespeople will presumably be pushing it hard...

This gives us the opportunity to test the various theories about whether Riviera's relatively lower monthly sales volumes over the summer were due to VGF competition, or perhaps due to potential buyers being turned off by the resale restrictions.

So here's the poll - with current incentives, who thinks we'll see a month with over 100,000 Riviera direct points sold? (poll closes December 5)

For reference, based on dvcnews data, direct sales in June, July, August and September were as follows:

	Riviera​	Grand Floridian​
June	40,025​	75,687​
July	43,969​	128,117​
August	48,472​	133,058​
September	49,781​	180,536​

Sources:
https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...in-strong-grand-floridian-surges-in-june-2023
https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...r-off-as-walt-disney-world-rises-in-july-2023
https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...ngthen-disneyland-sales-weaken-in-august-2023
https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...s-continue-on-a-robust-pace-in-september-2023

 

[mamaofsix]

I'm sure we'll see at least 1 or 2 months of RIV above 100K - because it's now the only WDW property in active sales.

VGF is higher priced, but it's also technically 'sold out' with limited points available for purchase. Even those who want to pay $230 may be out of luck.

 

[ark101]

I picked "resale restrictions are just a minor factor" but really, I don't think they are minor or necessarily the primary reason. They are one of the main reasons along with pricing, difference between direct and resale prices etc. In other words if pricing was much lower or they did something unthinkable like open another gate to Epcot directly accessible from Rivera, people would overlook the restrictions.

 

[DanCali]

I picked "resale restrictions are just a minor factor" but really, I don't think they are minor or necessarily the primary reason. They are one of the main reasons along with pricing, difference between direct and resale prices etc. In other words if pricing was much lower or they did something unthinkable like open another gate to Epcot directly accessible from Rivera, people would overlook the restrictions.

I would argue that the pricing difference between resale and direct is also attributable to the resale restrictions, and I expect it to get worse over time. I view the resorts themselves generally very comparable in terms of luxury, sleeping capacity (only 2 DVC resorts with both studios and 1BRs which sleep 5), and convenience/location. But, even with 10 extra years on the deed, you can't expect a resale buyer to pay the same for Riviera and VGF given how different the resale products are in functionality.

 

[CastAStone]

What about “no, winter is a slow time for DVC”

 

[sethschroeder]

Flaw in the poll based on what I understand (been a while since I tracked it closely) is that "November" direct sales actually account for a good amount of actual October sales.

So you really have to look at December to February as the months impacted by the current sales incentives.

I said all 3 but I suspect the reporting will possibly be off for the November month but we will see.

 

[Sandisw]

I can’t take the poll because none fit. I think we will see an increase in numbers but not the 100K mark mainly because of pricing and the current economy. Not to mention thjs time of year is when sales slow down.

And, if you take the data from prior to the summer incentives, even VGF didn’t hit about the 80K mark.

I just believe that DVD has a different model and isn’t as concerned about individual resorts vs total sales.

These incentives are worse for RIV…which indicates DVD is obviously content with its sales at this point.

 

[sethschroeder]

What about “no, winter is a slow time for DVC”

RIV/VGF still combined for 100k+ points every month over the winter last year. So without another active selling resort most of those points will be scooped into RIV since most people are not buying because of VGF but simply buying DVC happening to choose one or the other.

Now what could cause a slowdown is the economy and people waking up to the future outlook.

 

[intamin]

I picked "resale restrictions are just a minor factor" but really, I don't think they are minor or necessarily the primary reason. They are one of the main reasons along with pricing, difference between direct and resale prices etc. In other words if pricing was much lower or they did something unthinkable like open another gate to Epcot directly accessible from Rivera, people would overlook the restrictions.

Ditto. I think it definitely hurts RIV sales somewhat. But I think what may be more telling is how RIV performed against VGF during the fall incentives now that it's base price per point is less than VGF. If VGF still outperformed RIV then I think it says something about the resort/potentially resale restrictions.

 

[cbailey1616]

The resale restrictions are going to cause Riv to have the most depreciation. I wouldn't touch it for that reason personally. Who knows what will come up and you need to exit the contract.

 

[DanCali]

What about “no, winter is a slow time for DVC”

100,000 would be a substantial drop when you consider those 2 resorts combined accounted for over 150,000 points in July, August and September and now VGF will be at near zero.

 

[DanCali]

Just to confirm my suspicion - is MB not available anymore for VGF, making the difference about $50-$55/pt (albeit at the expense of an extra use year)? Or is it still available for both which would make the difference around $30-$35/pt?

 

[DanCali]

I just believe that DVD has a different model and isn’t as concerned about individual resorts vs total sales.

These incentives are worse for RIV…which indicates DVD is obviously content with its sales at this point.

For what it's worth, last December VGF was at 52K and Riviera was at 59K. So, combined those two were over 110K and about 90% of total WDW sales (all other WDW resorts combined were less than 15K). It would definitely be interesting to look at the year-over-year change as well in December with the benchmark being around 125K for WDW in total.

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program/fin...cember-2022-direct-sales-and-year-end-wrap-up

 

[intamin]

The resale restrictions are going to cause Riv to have the most depreciation. I wouldn't touch it for that reason personally. Who knows what will come up and you need to exit the contract.

It really just depends on how you want to approach it. If I were forced to sell my contracts I would gladly sell my resale AUL/AKV contracts first and the RIVs would be the last to go but I'm approaching it as a whole that the money put into this stays there until expiration. Lets be real here this isn't an investment, it's a vacation. Obviously I'd prefer to have a better exit strategy as insurance but we also would rather own at RIV and am willing to accept that risk to stay at somewhere we enjoy more. Now if all things were equal between RIV and VGF then obviously I would pick VGF but they're not. RIV is the only near Epcot area resort that lasts past 2042 compared to the MK area where there are a lot of options to pick from that all last well into the 2060s. If I wanted to pick up a resale VGF down the road I can and will still be able to stay at the majority of WDW resorts whereas if I decided to get a resale RIV down the line although it's a lot cheaper the product is not close in comparison to an unrestricted direct RIV contract.

 

[cbailey1616]

It really just depends on how you want to approach it. If I were forced to sell my contracts I would gladly sell my resale AUL/AKV contracts first and the RIVs would be the last to go but I'm approaching it as a whole that the money put into this stays there until expiration. Lets be real here this isn't an investment, it's a vacation. Obviously I'd prefer to have a better exit strategy as insurance but we also would rather own at RIV and am willing to accept that risk to stay at somewhere we enjoy more. Now if all things were equal between RIV and VGF then obviously I would pick VGF but they're not. RIV is the only near Epcot area resort that lasts past 2042 compared to the MK area where there are a lot of options to pick from that all last well into the 2060s. If I wanted to pick up a resale VGF down the road I can and will still be able to stay at the majority of WDW resorts whereas if I decided to get a resale RIV down the line although it's a lot cheaper the product is not close in comparison to an unrestricted direct RIV contract.

Its kinda like a car, you don't buy it as an investment but if you know it's going to depreciate fast or hard to sell it's going to play into your purchase decision.

 

[intamin]

Its kinda like a car, you don't buy it as an investment but if you know it's going to depreciate fast or hard to sell it's going to play into your purchase decision.

Sure is but if you have a strong preference for one of the cars and won't be content with the other then does it matter? Don't pick your second choice based on what may or may not happen. If you prefer VGF then obviously like I've said before it's a no brainer. We were one of those people who hadn't stayed there but was swept up by the lobby. We almost picked VGF because of no resale restrictions. However, having stayed in both RIV and VGF we're glad we picked RIV and can guarantee saving 20% off preferred view by booking standards at the resort we enjoy more personally. For the record, I drive my cars into the ground but anyways to each their own

 

[DanCali]

Lets be real here this isn't an investment, it's a vacation.

It would be a stretch to buy a timeshare from a developer assuming capital appreciation, but those who bought VGC, BWV, BCV and even BLT 15+ years ago did ok on that front too.

I try to approach both a direct and resale purchase thinking "where am I likely to lose the least if/when I need to exit?" Given this, I can't envision buying Riviera direct because the delta with resale is already too large imo (~$50/pt) and may even get worse. I can't argue with your resort preferences given Epcot location and such but, based on this criterion, the $161 for VGF in the summer was a no-brainer, and it also shows in the summer sales numbers. Definitely having some buyer remorse about not buying more VGF direct when I had the chance!

 

[intamin]

It would be a stretch to buy a timeshare from a developer assuming capital appreciation, but those who bought VGC, BWV, BCV and even BLT 15+ years ago did ok on that front too.

I try to approach both a direct and resale purchase thinking "where am I likely to lose the least if/when I need to exit?" Given this, I can't envision buying Riviera direct because the delta with resale is already too large imo (~$50/pt) and may even get worse. I can't argue with your resort preferences given Epcot location and such but, based on this criterion, the $161 for VGF in the summer was a no-brainer, and it also shows in the summer sales numbers. Definitely having some buyer remorse about not buying more VGF direct when I had the chance!

I think VGF is a great resort, but we do prefer staying in the all in one tower buildings. With Poly tower looming we didn’t want 2 MK resorts, otherwise VGF would probably have been it. Our favorite parks by far are Epcot and AK so walking to TTC to go to Epcot from Poly and still be able to take the monorail to MK makes it our personal preference but if you’re not a fan of towers or just like the Victorian style theming of VGF it’s hard to argue against the deal they had this past summer.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Its kinda like a car, you don't buy it as an investment but if you know it's going to depreciate fast or hard to sell it's going to play into your purchase decision.

This is how I feel, but also I recently bought BCV and I’m fairly confident that RIV will be worth a lot more than by BCV points 20 years from now…so I am the last to judge anybody who is willing to risk (likely) long-term value loss to buy in at the resort they love the most.

 

[Unclelude]

Regarding totals for November ...

We ended up doing the delay thing for VGF summer incentive .. as other have stated, we could have spread our payments out till December, but ended up paying in full in Oct. After we finished paying we had a nice call from our Guide (mid/late Oct). I asked how VGF sales were going (I was curious about when it might sell out), he said he hadn't sold a single VGF contract since the summer incentive!

I'm guessing most if not nearly all of the remaining VGF contracts to hit the books are hangovers from the summer incentives.

So IMO I don't think VGF 'stole' many contracts from RIV in October and forward. Not sure how the delayed closings and lags could impact the numbers... ( i.e. RIV could have a bunch of delayed closings too )

All that being said, outside of a Black Friday sale, I'm in the less than 100k camp... resale restrictions have some role, but I think it will be more pricing/demand ... they just sold a sh*t load of points closing out Big Pine Key...

Have fun!