Winter '23-'24 Incentives Poll - will we see a month with Riviera 100K direct sales?

[sethschroeder]

this isn't an investment, it's a vacation.

I am normally going to avoid the I word but I will take it on here.

Investment is anything you expect to increase in value long term. I just want to call out people normally forget to account for the annual withdrawal of the base investment (points being used) as well as the "dividends" (cost difference between base+mfs compared to renting/cash for the same room).

Its a little like a vacation home that people view as an "investment".

I just thought I would call it out because I haven't seen the counterpoint recently talked about on here as to why people Freudian slip and say investment in posts.

 

[DanCali]

Looking pretty good so far for the 80% who said "No"



They need to convert another VGF building because those 180K VGF points from September are not really swinging to RVA despite its current pricing advantage... Or maybe just remove the silly resale restrictions already????

 

[intamin]

Looking pretty good so far for the 80% who said "No"

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They need to convert another VGF building because those 180K VGF points from September are not really swinging to RVA despite its current pricing advantage... Or maybe just remove the silly resale restrictions already????


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You're probably right, they do need to convert another building at VGF to DVC more because they still can't fill those rooms for cash despite DVC taking an entire building.

 

[Sandisw]

Looking pretty good so far for the 80% who said "No"

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They need to convert another VGF building because those 180K VGF points from September are not really swinging to RVA despite its current pricing advantage... Or maybe just remove the silly resale restrictions already????


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We need to wait to another few month to see data from the newest incentives.

I agree that we won’t see RIV sell that many but I also do not think it would even if it had no restrictions.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

Looking pretty good so far for the 80% who said "No"

View attachment 818822

They need to convert another VGF building because those 180K VGF points from September are not really swinging to RVA despite its current pricing advantage... Or maybe just remove the silly resale restrictions already????


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I think VGF has a few things going for it that go beyond not having restrictions. The fire sale over the summer that created intense FOMO (like many have pointed out, prior to the summer sale VGF sales lagged behind RIV for many months), it’s the DVC and WDW flagship location, it’s on the monorail/Magic Kingdom Loop, inarguably the most desirable location on property second to BLT.

Maybe my expectations have been lowered but in this economy, with the bad rep RIV constantly gets for either being ugly, having high point charts or having restrictions, I think it’s actually impressive that it’s done 70K.

I’m hoping when Poly goes on sales they do another fire sale over the summer but for RIV, I’d definitely pick up some more points. I was tempted by the VGF sale but I already have enough points there and it’s not my favorite home resort so for once I had patience

 

[DanCali]

I think VGF has a few things going for it that go beyond not having restrictions. The fire sale over the summer that created intense FOMO (like many have pointed out, prior to the summer sale VGF sales lagged behind RIV for many months), it’s the DVC and WDW flagship location, it’s on the monorail/Magic Kingdom Loop, inarguably the most desirable location on property second to BLT.

Maybe my expectations have been lowered but in this economy, with the bad rep RIV constantly gets for either being ugly, having high point charts or having restrictions, I think it’s actually impressive that it’s done 70K.

I’m hoping when Poly goes on sales they do another fire sale over the summer but for RIV, I’d definitely pick up some more points. I was tempted by the VGF sale but I already have enough points there and it’s not my favorite home resort so for once I had patience

Resale restrictions aside, the resorts are somewhat comparable. They both have expensive points charts (VGF more expensive actually, and that didn't stop it from selling). They are the only DVC resorts that sleep 5 in both studios and 1BRs. And they both have convenient access to a major park (RIV actually easy access to 2).

I do agree that there was FOMO in the summer, but I'd argue that the FOMO for some was probably also about missing out on the last non-restricted resort. And while it may have been a "fire sale" in hindsight, I don't think they expected to sell it that fast... RIV was priced only at about $5-$7 higher at the 150 point level if I recall correctly, but sold less than a third of VGF in Sep. Those resale restrictions are a major turnoff to a subset of potential direct buyers. I just don't know how large that pool of potential buyers is.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

Resale restrictions aside, the resorts are somewhat comparable. They both have expensive points charts (VGF more expensive actually, and that didn't stop it from selling). They are the only DVC resorts that sleep 5 in both studios and 1BRs. And they both have convenient access to a major park (RIV actually easy access to 2).

I do agree that there was FOMO in the summer, but I'd argue that the FOMO for some was probably also about missing out on the last non-restricted resort. And while it may have been a "fire sale" in hindsight, I don't think they expected to sell it that fast... RIV was priced only at about $5-$7 higher at the 150 point level if I recall correctly, but sold less than a third of VGF in Sep. Those resale restrictions are a major turnoff to a subset of potential direct buyers. I just don't know how large that pool of potential buyers is.

All fair points. I still think it helps that the hotel name is the very recognizable Grand Floridian but yeah it’s clear resale restrictions are a hindrance for DVC sales, annoyingly, not enough to get them to change directions :/

I’d be curious to know how many points were sold to existing members v. new members, for the summer sale at VGF but also in general. Existing members would realize the benefit of buying more points at the last unrestricted resort but I feel like new members, less so. Do those numbers exist anywhere?

 

[DanCali]

Do those numbers exist anywhere?

Not as far as I know. That would involve taking each deed/contract and then cross referencing prior ownership.

DVD would certainly have that info, but it's not in the public domain without a lot of manual labor.

 

[Cfabar1]

We picked VGF for the location, the history/legacy of the resort, theming/environment, and lack of resale restrictions.

We found the shorter expiration disappointing, but worth the trade off.

We were not comfortable with the prices of DVC until the summer incentives came out, and they dovetailed with a time that financially made sense for us to put such a large sum of money into DVC, and we felt comfortable knowing that since we paid less, if we had to sell at some point, we would “lose” less money than if we had paid more.

 

[tidefan]

All fair points. I still think it helps that the hotel name is the very recognizable Grand Floridian but yeah it’s clear resale restrictions are a hindrance for DVC sales, annoyingly, not enough to get them to change directions :/

I’d be curious to know how many points were sold to existing members v. new members, for the summer sale at VGF but also in general. Existing members would realize the benefit of buying more points at the last unrestricted resort but I feel like new members, less so. Do those numbers exist anywhere?

I wonder how much the sales falling off of a cliff at VDH factors into things. I know that a good bit of the problem at VDH is actually the TAT, but I can't imagine DVD didn't think sales would be better. I also think a restricted CFW (especially if the points charts are unfriendly) would be a very hard sell. It will be an interesting few years for DVD.

I've got my popcorn!

 

[RichVIII]

I wonder how much the sales falling off of a cliff at VDH factors into things. I know that a good bit of the problem at VDH is actually the TAT, but I can't imagine DVD didn't think sales would be better. I also think a restricted CFW (especially if the points charts are unfriendly) would be a very hard sell. It will be an interesting few years for DVD.

I've got my popcorn!

And toss in Poly2 (if it is actually unrestricted), it seems like DVC has a LOT of inventory across three locations. I agree with many others that places like Aulani, RIV and VDH is still getting filled with cash enough. I could see Poly2 even fill ing better with cash that VGF.

 

[BrianLo]

The points DVC sells direct are not restricted. That’s the whole point.

Now I do suspect direct VGF dipping below the actual resale average represented a massive buying opportunity. Direct points at essentially no value loss driving out of ‘the developers lot’. RIV didn’t have that and was still priced higher during the sale.

The factors were somewhat intrinsic to VGF flipping its resale-direct differential. If SSR (or Aulani) were suddenly offered at the same firesale direct price I doubt there would be such a strong response.

We can add in the sense of FOMO that VGF we could tell was selling out.