Yes, ANOTHER new Disney park rumor

[AshleyMWC]

Ok, I know there are a million theories going on about where the next Disney park will be, yadda yadda yadda. My in-laws live in the western part of Virginia, and they said someone told them Disney is definitely building a park out there "really soon." I don't believe the rumors, but I told my husband I wold ask. I guess no one ever knows for sure what Disney is planning, but I think the rumor would have leaked out if they were going to break ground in the coming months, as they say they were told! Anyone got anything on this one?!

 

[mitros]

I just can't imagine Disney spending that kind of money right now. They are still offering all kinds of perks to get the WDW parks and hotels filled up. I do not think their business is back in full swing just yet to have them building another park in the USA

 

[nytimez]

I won't say it's impossible. But it's pretty close to it. Certainly, if they were about to break ground on something big in the coming months there would be lots of rumors flying -- before a single shovel enters the ground, permits would have to be filed, real estate purchased, environmental studies done, etc. etc. All that stuff can take years, and all that stuff tends to be very public.

 

[doconeill]

Disney TRIED to build a park in Virginia already...and got told to pound pixie dust.

They could have made a serious bid for BG-W if they wanted it, but didn't.

I don't think they are in any hurry to try again.

I'm still waiting for the New England park my dad said they were planning 35 years ago...

 

[Faldred]

The Front Royal, VA project is essentially dead. Disney and state/local governments couldn't come close to agreements.

 

[KYMickey]

Unfortunately this rumor is just as baseless as the others!

 

[Figment632]

100% false! No plans for Virginia since Disney America was canned.

 

[skier_pete]

Agree. This one is untrue. If they were "breaking ground" within the next year - there would be already public records of transactions. (They could NEVER get away with what they did for "The Florida Project" in this day and age.) Also permits for construction would have to be well underway.

And I will state that Virgina will never happen. Honestly, I don't think you will see Disney build another resort destination in the continental US...all it would do is take away guests from Florida and/or California.

 

[CandyMandy]

I don't think you will see Disney build another resort destination in the continental US...all it would do is take away guests from Florida and/or California.

I agree; the closest we will ever see Disney coming to this is possibly doing seasonal home-porting of some of the (still very small) DCL fleet to ports outside Florida or CA. I.e. have one of the ships do sailings from a Northeastern embarkation point during the summer (Texas may also be a possibility, although I'd bank on the Northeast first).

The big growth in the cruise industry after 9/11 was in that direction, as it found there's a large market of people who are more than willing to cruise...if they can get to the pier without having to fly.

Frankly, that's the main reason the European cruise market hasn't completely folded in this economy; while fewer Americans can pay the big premiums those sailings demand, you can still send ships over there and snag a bunch of foreign passengers who aren't going to fly to Florida to cruise.

 

[pilferk]

Could this have ANYTHING to do with the National Harbor purchase (which is actually in Maryland) about a year ago?

It's the only thing in that geographic region I can think of that could POSSIBLY be in any way related.

 

[CandyMandy]

Could this have ANYTHING to do with the National Harbor purchase (which is actually in Maryland) about a year ago?

It's the only thing in that geographic region I can think of that could POSSIBLY be in any way related.

As far as a park, no. Even if there was a business reason for a park there (which there isn't), not enough room.

As far as a stand-alone Disney resort destination, a DVC variant has been the primary speculated potential use for that site. I rate the likelihood of that as highly questionable at best; Disney has yet to open any resort away from a Disney Park that isn't in a beach resort area -- and preferably a year round one. National Harbor meets neither criteria.

And as far as some sort of stand alone seasonal cruise ship pier facility, I'd also say no. Beyond no adequate space for a terminal and berth, the location doesn't make business sense: the market for home port sailings out of the "D.C. metroplex" is apparently limited, given only a few lines do Baltimore sailings, using smaller ships over a relatively short season.

The serious money in "home port" embarkations as you move up the East Coast is sailing from either the West Side or Brooklyn cruise terminals in NYC or out of "Port Liberty" (the vanity name given to the cruise terminal in Bayonne, New Jersey). If Disney decides to give home porting a try I'd be very surprised if they didn't notice the fact that RCI, HAL, Celebrity, Princess and NCL have all deteremined it's more than worth their while to serve that market with some of the biggest and best of their fleets.

 

[AshleyMWC]

According to my FIL, Disney has surveyors on the ground there now. (This is nowhere near the previously proposed Front Royal location) A contractor told him directly that Disney was the one paying the contractors directly. TAke it for what you will, but it seems a pretty odd thing for this contractor to dream up

 

[nytimez]

According to my FIL, Disney has surveyors on the ground there now. (This is nowhere near the previously proposed Front Royal location) A contractor told him directly that Disney was the one paying the contractors directly. TAke it for what you will, but it seems a pretty odd thing for this contractor to dream up

There are about a million people who watch Disney's every move, from fans on message boards to analysts who need to get an edge on its stock movements.

I don't mean to sound harsh here, but do you really think something this big is happening with loose-lipped contractors and surveyors, and yet somehow your FIL is the only one who knows about it?

 

[doconeill]

We've heard stories from contractors, some posted directly by them on these boards, that claimed work was already being done on things that were totally false.

Contractors like to tell stories it seems...

 

[pilferk]

As far as a park, no. Even if there was a business reason for a park there (which there isn't), not enough room.

As far as a stand-alone Disney resort destination, a DVC variant has been the primary speculated potential use for that site. I rate the likelihood of that as highly questionable at best; Disney has yet to open any resort away from a Disney Park that isn't in a beach resort area -- and preferably a year round one. National Harbor meets neither criteria.

And as far as some sort of stand alone seasonal cruise ship pier facility, I'd also say no. Beyond no adequate space for a terminal and berth, the location doesn't make business sense: the market for home port sailings out of the "D.C. metroplex" is apparently limited, given only a few lines do Baltimore sailings, using smaller ships over a relatively short season.

The serious money in "home port" embarkations as you move up the East Coast is sailing from either the West Side or Brooklyn cruise terminals in NYC or out of "Port Liberty" (the vanity name given to the cruise terminal in Bayonne, New Jersey). If Disney decides to give home porting a try I'd be very surprised if they didn't notice the fact that RCI, HAL, Celebrity, Princess and NCL have all deteremined it's more than worth their while to serve that market with some of the biggest and best of their fleets.

No, I know there's no park (15 acres just isn't enough space).

But you know the 'telephone game' nature of rumors. Given WHERE National Harbor is...it's the only KNOWN thing in relative geographic proximity that MIGHT fuel this type of rumor.

And the National Harbor site has GOT to be a resort, I'd think, of some type. I mean that's even what the developer announced in the press release. Maybe the first of one of those "destination resorts" that Iger talked about a few years ago. But it has to be SOMETHING, since Disney has already bought the land....or else they'll sell it (which, to date, they haven't done). It'll probably be mixed use, sort of like the complex out in Hawaii.

 

[tjkraz]

As far as a stand-alone Disney resort destination, a DVC variant has been the primary speculated potential use for that site. I rate the likelihood of that as highly questionable at best; Disney has yet to open any resort away from a Disney Park that isn't in a beach resort area -- and preferably a year round one. National Harbor meets neither criteria.

Don't necessarily agree with your conclusions. Disney has every intention of growing the DVC brand to compete with the likes of Marriott Vacation Club, Wyndham and many others...assuming they can aggressively market DVC outside of the parks. Due to ambitious long-term goals, I doubt Disney will limit its growth to beachfront locales with high 365 day/ year demand.

We know that Disney purchased the land and we know that the intended build-out will include some form of lodging. From a financial perspective, it only makes sense for a DVC component to be included. Washington DC is certainly a viable vacation destination for many Americans. Even a relatively small DVC component like 50-75 villas would serve the dual purpose of funding the construction project and growing the DVC brand ("If you buy into the Bay Lake Tower, you can use the points for Disneyland, Walt Disney World, Hilton Head Island, Hawaii, Washington DC...")

Of course, whether a hotel/timeshare is even constructed remains to be seen. Corporate philosophy on such things does tend to change over time. Jay Rasulo was head of Parks & Resorts when the land was acquired. Current head Tom Staggs may not share Rasulo's vision for regional hotels scattered across the US. The success (or otherwise) of Aulani will undoubtedly play a large role in determining how Disney proceeds in other non-park destinations.

But if Disney does move forward with a hotel project at National Harbor, I cannot imagine that DVC villas would be completely excluded from the project.

 

[CandyMandy]

Don't necessarily agree with your conclusions. Disney has every intention of growing the DVC brand to compete with the likes of Marriott Vacation Club, Wyndham and many others...assuming they can aggressively market DVC outside of the parks. Due to ambitious long-term goals, I doubt Disney will limit its growth to beachfront locales with high 365 day/ year demand.

As you stated later on in your post, a lot of that hinges on the success of existing investments. When DVC started, the thought was the program would readily support resorts away from the parks, hence Vero and Hilton Head.

Both ended up being much slower sellers than the WDW properties and also (particularly Hilton head) have large seasonal swings in attendance. Those two resorts are only hard to book in late spring through early summer.

That was likely main big reason Disney then fell back for over a decade to only building park sited properties.

Yes, that finally changed with Aulani, albeit the timing of that resort going live is woefully off given the current economy (Hawaii tourism has been in decline for years and was falling even before economic crisis that started in fall of '08). Also, the last issue of the DVC magazine proved the theory I and others have been promoting for a while now, which is Disney is clearly betting a big piece of the Aulani farm on the Japanese market.

If that pans out, here's a prediction: a big chunk of the Japanese one will see at that resort will be groups of single women in their 30s.

If you want to know why, google the term "parasaito shinguru."

 

[tjkraz]

As you stated later on in your post, a lot of that hinges on the success of existing investments. When DVC started, the thought was the program would readily support resorts away from the parks, hence Vero and Hilton Head.

True but there is not much value in comparing the decision to add Vero and HHI circa 1993 with the DVC of 2010 and beyond.

Both ended up being much slower sellers than the WDW properties and also (particularly Hilton head) have large seasonal swings in attendance. Those two resorts are only hard to book in late spring through early summer.

Attendance patterns are not of primary concern to the developer. They do play a role in the appeal of a given destination to buyers. But every buyer makes the purchase with the intention of being able to use the destination during his/her preferred dates.

The most relevant questions are how long will it take to sell the points (ROI) and is the developer comfortable with that time frame.

Again we are looking at a much different DVC than existed 17 years ago. Regardless of whatever internal estimates Disney has for Aulani sales, they WILL eventually sell all of the points. It may not be in the time frame the original envisioned nor at the price they project, but that's part of the risk.

And Aulani has been gradually moving forward throughout the economic upheaval of the last 2+ years. I doubt that Disney has any lofty sales expectations based upon a 2007 economy.

Disney's choices are twofold--either they accept the fact that DVC will never grow beyond the parks or they continue to gradually grow the program under prevailing economic circumstances. I suspect they will opt for the latter.

Yes, that finally changed with Aulani, albeit the timing of that resort going live is woefully off given the current economy (Hawaii tourism has been in decline for years and was falling even before economic crisis that started in fall of '08).

Overall tourism may be falling but the volume of guests staying in timeshare accommodations has been steadily rising.

And regardless of the trends, Hawaii IS still a prime tourism destination. Sure it helps to be entering a growth market. But there is no reason to think that Disney will be unable to capture a portion of the existing travel market.

Also, the last issue of the DVC magazine proved the theory I and others have been promoting for a while now, which is Disney is clearly betting a big piece of the Aulani farm on the Japanese market.

Nothing wrong with opening up the product to new markets... :confused

But getting back to National Harbor, there is little doubt in my mind that DVC could support a resort in that area. I wouldn't put 400 units there nor would I expect it to sell at the same pace as something like the Bay Lake Tower. However all of the other major timeshare players have been successful in the DC area. Wyndham just opened their second DC area resort--right in National Harbor.

It's a great area to have on the books, if for no other reason than to increase the appeal of the entire DVC program.

The main question is whether Disney want to operate a hotel in National Harbor. These aren't decisions to be made lightly so I would expect Disney to take its time--particularly with a new boss in charge.