How is it more proven? Has Caribbean Beach done bad historically (although moderate)? I think the bigger strike is REF will be neighbors with a campground.... Not a moderate.... A campground.....
How many more boats can you make space for? Will REF share boats and busses with the campground or WL/CC? It will be very interesting.
My perception of CB is that it doesn't have the same sort of following that other resorts do. Yes ppl seem to like the resort, but I think most ppl actually prefer others. I hear a lot more ppl raving about POFQ and CS (especially now that it has GD), than I ever have about CB. When you compare to WL/CC/BR just about everyone who stays there LOVES this resort. Like REALLY LOVES this resort, which I don't see happening with CB.
Now maybe my perception is incorrect - this is all anecdotal on my part. Also, CB is a moderate, not a deluxe brand, whereas Ref has a the Deluxe of WL/CC/BR to compare against. Also, while Ft. W has a campground it also has RV pads and its version of 'cabins' which I do believe need an upgrade, but that's another discussion.
The RV pads in particular are worth paying attention to, because there's a lot of people that definitely have the income to purchase DVC that like to travel in an RV. I personally know several folks that are both RV owners and DVC owners. An RV owner often wants the sense of wilderness they would get from camping, but want some modern conveniences like a bed, kitchen and a toilette they don't have to walk to in the middle of the night. The point here being that there's already a significant chunk of RV owners that def have the income/desire to purchase DVC, and absolutely would do so if it was attached to a wilderness property like Ft. W which is really beautiful.
Transportation is a very good point, and not one I had yet considered, especially since Ref is supposed to have 900 rooms. I looked up room totals and WL, BR and CC combined are 1,083. Ft W is at 409 so when added to Ref, it will be a total of 1309.
Assuming a shared bus line, which I def agree is the likeliest thing, the comps are as follows (numbers were all sourced from Touringplans):
Reflections + Ft. Wilderness = 1309
Poly + PV 1,227
BC, BCV and YC altogether are 1,495
AKL Jambo and Kidani total 1,430
Dolphin 1,500 Swan 758 for a total of 2,258
SS 1,250 (an extremely sprawling resort)
POR 2,048 POFQ 1,008 for a total of 3,056 - also sprawling when taken together
CS 2,384 (sprawling)
CB 1,536 (sprawling)
Pop 2,880
AoA 1,984
All Star Resorts range between 1,604 at Music to 1,920 at other two for a total of 5,444.
Given the numbers, especially when looking at other deluxe resorts like the Poly, BC/YC and AKL properties, I don't think that bus service is going to be any bigger issue for ppl than it already is on the rest of property, especially since Ref shouldn't be sprawling the way the mods are. Yes you can argue that Poly is a Monorail property, but that's only relevant to getting to MK, and the boats they use are significantly smaller as a result.
If recall correctly, the boats used for WL and Ft W are like the ones they use on that whole Boardwalk area which serves YC/BC, BW/BWV, and Swan and Dolphin. Now that line isn't a good comparison for transportation to EPCOT, since a lot of people walk from those resorts, but it's a very relevant comparison when looking at boat service to the Studios from those resorts. That line is handling three major resorts which would add up to a total of 4,663 rooms. In comparison, the 1,309 of Ref/Ft. W plus the WL/BR/CC at 1,083 would be a total of 2,392 which is about half of what the Studios line is serving.
In short, Disney should be capable of handling those numbers on both boat at bus at no worse level than they already do throughout the rest of property. Not saying transportation couldn't be better, but when it's no worse than anywhere else, the factor of transportation ceases to become a factor on the desireability of the property.
That was kind of fun to look at those room numbers - makes for an interesting resort comparison in general, and def interesting points to look into.