weather obsession

[tenneycjt]

Just want to add I’m from pdx and there at the same time too! It honestly doesn’t bother me what the weather is, I’m in DL!

Im from there too, except ill have my mom in a wheelchair, so unrainy weather makes it easier for me

 

[asumom]

This is what i find annoying beautiful the week before and after.

 

[asumom]

I am doing the same. I check all the weather sites and go with the one most favorable to me...lol. But, not happy to see the possibility of rain now extended to Wednesday. Hoping it starts trending away from rain.

 

[DLgal]

I heard it doesn't lower the crowd levels anymore like it used to.

Well, as a local, I most certainly don't go when there's so much as a hint of rain in the forecast. Don't you know we all melt in the rain?

 

[tenneycjt]

I am doing the same. I check all the weather sites and go with the one most favorable to me...lol. But, not happy to see the possibility of rain now extended to Wednesday. Hoping it starts trending away from rain.

LOl that's what I do too, although I seem to like accuweather, that one doesn't sound bad/ But how can they even make a forecast that far out?

 

[Going2DisneyAZ]

LOl that's what I do too, although I seem to like accuweather, that one doesn't sound bad/ But how can they even make a forecast that far out?

If you go to NOAA and look at the satellites you can see weather swirling in the Pacific. That leads them to estimate how long it will last and where it is going. It's a crap shoot this far out but they base it on historical models using a bunch of data points. Plus I think there is a santa ana factor (dry warm air from the East) ATM in So Cal. It will be a battle between onshore and offshore flow for the next week or so.

 

[Going2DisneyAZ]

 

[SteveH]

Were you in Florida or California? There’s no real need to plan for rain or to keep ponchos with you if there’s no rain in the forecast in California. In Florida I agree the rain is much more unpredictable.

I've been at both in the past year. I agree, but if it's the rainy season at Disneyland I'd keep with me me as they can get random rain storms but you're right tend be more predictable.

 

[Katiebird]

I've been at both in the past year. I agree, but if it's the rainy season at Disneyland I'd keep with me me as they can get random rain storms but you're right tend be more predictable.

I dunno, I’ve lived in Southern California for the last 20 years and I’d say I could count random rainstorms on my fingers. It does rain, but it’s generally forecasted, not random.

Bring ponchos on the trip, sure, but I wouldn’t carry them around the parks unless there’s rain in the forecast.

 

[Aurora0427]

what was it like last year?

Last year isn’t accurate this year.... at least here in San Diego we seem to be having a warmer and drier spring. Last year it was much cooler and much wetter. I think it rained almost every day in February, with highs in the 50s a lot. Today was supposed to be a high of 85 and sunny due to Santa Anna winds. It’s currently cloudy and maybe in the 70s. They just have no idea! Anaheim is a little more predictable because you don’t have the ocean right there, but I still check the weather when we head up to DLR up to the day before because it can change on a dime. And I always bring a jacket unless it’s August.

 

[Diznygrl]

I heard it doesn't lower the crowd levels anymore like it used to.

This has been my experience. Honestly I think it has to be raining pretty hard and for a lengthy amount of time before people will really start to leave. During a more moderate rain it seems like most people tough it out these days thinking that everyone else will leave, but then nobody does, LOL. Especially during more touristy times like Spring Break.

 

[theluckyrabbit]

... We were there in Oct 2018 and had torrential downpours (like monsoon style rain) during the Halloween party. The best part of that night was my boyfriend was saying there is no rain in the forecast on the weather app as I am looking up and seeing storm clouds rolling in saying no, that is a thunderstorm coming. So the weather app was wrong in real time...

We were there that night, too. That storm was forecast by the local NWS office and other weather sites, but everyone thought it would come in around 11 pm. NO ONE thought it would roll in around 6 pm! DH read the forecasts, believed them, but also knew that the margin of error was large enough that we should pack rain gear in a locker. Sure came in handy that night!

What is frustrating me is Accuweather online is giving me one forecast and the Weather Channel app is giving me another...

Use a local weather forecast -- much better information for you. See this recent thread: Most accurate Anaheim weather forecaster? and try https://abc7.com.

 

[Ladyslug]

For weather forecasts, I always recommend getting the info straight from the National Weather Service (Put in the zip code for Disneyland — 92802 — to be as precise as possible). They’re not perfect (and if you’re looking at more than a week out then nothing is going to be terribly useful), but in my experience they are worlds better that what one usually gets from your average default phone weather app.

 

[tenneycjt]

Looks like march 8-12th is trending a little better today, sure wish i was going nxt week, but u have to plan these trips months in advance

 

[asumom]

Looks like march 8-12th is trending a little better today, sure wish i was going nxt week, but u have to plan these trips months in advance

Really? I see a 40% to 50% chance from monday to thursday. Starting to stress now.

 

[MillauFr]

The predicted accuracy of the long term forecast is currently very low...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Well below average, 2 out of 5,
due to a predicted change in the circulation pattern during the forecast
period, large ensemble spread, and differences in forecast tools over the
CONUS.


https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXPMDMRD&wfo=SEW

 

[tenneycjt]

Really? I see a 40% to 50% chance from monday to thursday. Starting to stress now.

Well on my forecast 15 day and accuweather both have improved since yesterday, fingers croseed

 

[tenneycjt]

The predicted accuracy of the long term forecast is currently very low...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Well below average, 2 out of 5,
due to a predicted change in the circulation pattern during the forecast
period, large ensemble spread, and differences in forecast tools over the
CONUS.


https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXPMDMRD&wfo=SEW

I read this is this for the whole country or anaheim specifically and what is CONUS

 

[MillauFr]

I read this is this for the whole country or anaheim specifically and what is CONUS

It is the whole country. Basically what they are saying is all of the computer models are predicting conflicting weather forecasts and they have no clue what is going to happen two weeks out.

CONUS = Continuous United States aka the lower 48 states.

 

[Indiana Scott]

We're in the PNW too. The rain in Anaheim isn't like ours. Generally, It rains for a short time and stops (I know, wierd huh?). It's not the all day (week, month..) soakers we have here.
So don't worry if there's some showers predicted. They're problably short lived and the humidity is so low that everything dries up quickly.