Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[bookwormde]

Again, the ones I'm perusing I'm not seeing it If you'd like you can PM them to me

I think the issue is your UY for the past 4 days only 1 f the new contracts was AUG.

 

[heynowirv]

I think the issue is your UY for the past 4 days only 1 f the new contracts was AUG.

That's what I've been sayin'

 

[mcgils]

Oh, I had my eye on that one. When you posted that you got a deal for $88, I went directly to that listing and intended to work on $88/pt. Now I know why it was no longer available.

 

[mcgils]

Again, the ones I'm perusing I'm not seeing it If you'd like you can PM them to me

I think that it's the June contract for 200 points at $93. I was going to offer on it, but it went under agreement. It is no longer under agreement.

 

[heynowirv]

I think that it's the June contract for 200 points at $93. I was going to offer on it, but it went under agreement. It is no longer under agreement.

Wrong post mcgils.LOL

 

[mcgils]

Wrong post mcgils.LOL

No, I was pointing out the contract that DisMomKY cancelled. That is what you were asking, isn't it?

 

[RanDIZ]

I am far from an economist (I'm a lawyer which means I pretend to know everything instead of actually knowing anything), but something happened over the weekend that made me a little nervous - my neighborhood Starbucks announced it would not be reopening after the quarantine. Other than meaning I have to go further out of my way for "meh" coffee I pay too much for, it made me wonder if there will indeed be long-term economic effects of Covid-19 even if things soon start opening up significantly. I don't know if it would have closed regardless, but it's certainly concerning.

You’re going to see more and more store closures to cut costs and bankruptcies for the less fortunate businesses. The unemployed will trickle back to work slowly as openings increase. Using Disney as an example, they’re starting at 30% capacity in Shanghai and gradually increasing. And even Chapek said he’d start below 30% at first. Whether or not they’ll be fully staffed is to be seen. But how can they be profitable at 30,40 or even 50% capacity? Local businesses doing be same will not be at full employment to handle limited customers. It’s gonna get worse before it gets better.

 

[MJ NH]

Yep. I think if we look at this in the microcosm of what is happening with DVC prices we are missing the macro problem of travel itself. The statements being made by the airlines regarding significant pilot layoffs are troubling.

I think travel will be a huge factor. Will international travel be allowed into the states? That could cut foreign buyers down. Or does the reduction in international travel increase demand because Americans don’t want to leave the country?

 

[CastAStone]

You’re going to see more and more store closures to cut costs and bankruptcies for the less fortunate businesses. The unemployed will trickle back to work slowly as openings increase. Using Disney as an example, they’re starting at 30% capacity in Shanghai and gradually increasing. And even Chapek said he’d start below 30% at first. Whether or not they’ll be fully staffed is to be seen. But how can they be profitable at 30,40 or even 50% capacity? Local businesses doing be same will not be at full employment to handle limited customers. It’s gonna get worse before it gets better.

The parks operate in aggregate at 50% capacity on an average day.

 

[Lorana]

The parks operate in aggregate at 50% capacity on an average day.

I feel like I have a different perspective on "capacity," because if the recent crowds are only 50% capacity, someone has an unrealistic expectation of how many people you can crowd into a park. ;-)

 

[heynowirv]

No, I was pointing out the contract that DisMomKY cancelled. That is what you were asking, isn't it?

Actually no,I was talking to bookwormde

 

[CastAStone]

I feel like I have a different perspective on "capacity," because if the recent crowds are only 50% capacity, someone has an unrealistic expectation of how many people you can crowd into a park. ;-)

The parks this year were nuts before it closed but the 2018 average attendance for the entire year was almost exactly 50% capacity for the resort; higher that 50% at MK and AK, lower at Epcot and DHS. They've done such a good job of Spreading out crowds over the year with pricing that the parks essentially never have capacity closures that last more than a few hours anymore, and even those are basically just a prohibition on off site one day ticket entry.

Believe it or not, it can be a LOT busier! That’s why capacity limits are more realistically going to start around 15-20%. And they’ve said they don’t expect to make money at first, just to lose less than they’re losing now.

 

[Lorana]

The parks this year were nuts before it closed but the 2018 average attendance for the entire year was almost exactly 50% capacity for the resort; higher that 50% at MK and AK, lower at Epcot and DHS. They've done such a good job of Spreading out crowds over the year with pricing that the parks essentially never have capacity closures that last more than a few hours anymore, and even those are basically just a prohibition on off site one day ticket entry.

Believe it or not, it can be a LOT busier! That’s why capacity limits are more realistically going to start around 15-20%. And they’ve said they don’t expect to make money at first, just to lose less than they’re losing now.

Oh, I know! We've done Disney over New Years when parks get closed for capacity several years ago. Hubbie claims that was a "one and done" because that press of bodies was more than he ever wants to deal with again, but I tell him that we have to do it once more once the kids are grown and we go ourselves. though admittedly maybe a room at BLT and watch it from there to avoid the crowds...

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I feel like I have a different perspective on "capacity," because if the recent crowds are only 50% capacity, someone has an unrealistic expectation of how many people you can crowd into a park. ;-)

And what I don't understand is when they speak of having reduced attractions. The reduced capacity should be at full operations or they're just crowding everyone in to the fewer operating attractions which is not achieving what they need to do in spreading the attendance out within the park. I haven't listened to any detailed info provided yet so maybe there's an explanation?

 

[spunkylouamanda]

here is the longer term trend from this reseller
View attachment 482441

I think that 2016 price point is likely the ROFR breaking point.

 

[Brianstl]

I think that 2016 price point is likely the ROFR breaking point.

We have already had the 2016 price average broke or matched at a few resorts that have cleared ROFR.

 

[spunkylouamanda]

We have already had the 2016 price average broke or matched at a few resorts that have cleared ROFR.

Not averaging it though.

 

[pirate33]

I think that 2016 price point is likely the ROFR breaking point.

Why 2016?

 

[bookwormde]

5/12 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 90% of average

 

[IndyToThere]

5/12 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 90% of average

Along with the avg amount of newly posted contracts, are you able to post avg % drop (or rise) in Per Point costs? (not sure what the best comparison is... maybe a Month over Month change and/or Week over Week change). I see you have the per point cost in the opening post but was thinking it might be cool to see the pct drop on your updates that you post here with the number of contracts listed.