Coronavirus will become insignificant in a month

[trmiv]

Those areas you mentioned actually did something to reduce their numbers. They weren’t acting like this was a hoax and opening up for all the world. Come walk around central Florida for a few days then tell me this will “just go away.” A lot of people here don’t give a single crap and are operating like its business as usual. On top of it we’re sending kids back to school next month! An entire new disease vector among a population that has largely been protected so far. What could possibly go wrong?

 

[cabanafrau]

This. Are you planning on wearing your mask the rest of your life every time you leave your home? I can't name a single person that I know who is going to get the vaccine.

It always takes me by surprise here how many people post about how everyone they know happens to think one certain way about a topic. Of course it always aligns with the poster's viewpoint.

I either know far too many different types of people or I have too many odd ideas (entirely plausible), because aside from everyone I know thinking axe murdering and kicking puppies being bad I can't think of another topic I could claim everyone I know agrees on.

 

[MikeNamez]

If you look at any chart of countries or states that has had a surge of covid, such as New York, Italy, or Sweden, you will notice that their surge (bump on the curve) lasts no more than 2 months, counting from the beginning of the wave to the end. In fact, Sweden, the country that never locked down, had only a one-month-long bump. Once the bump is over, no country or state has had a second surge.

So right now, the US has being going sharply up for a month. That means we are at the top of the curve and should be heading downward soon, and by the middle to end of August, cases will have fallen to before surge levels. Schools will be able to open on time.

Most importantly, Disney World needs to hang tight for month. Then they will be able to resume normal capacity and operations.

I am a mathematician. Earlier this year, I calculated that at least 3 million people will be dead from the coronavirus by the end of 2020, based on the death rate of 3.4% by the WHO. I told DH that 50 people he knows will be dead from covid by the end of the year (assuming he doesn't die first). Recently, however, the US CDC has stated that the death rate is actually 0.26%. That is a huge reduction and tremendous news. I just asked DH if he knows anybody dead from covid yet? He says he doesn’t even know anyone who is sick from covid.

And the Skyliner reopened yesterday! Almost nobody is riding it, but at least it’s open. Too bad I won’t be able to ride it. I might never go to Disney World or Disneyland again -- I want to die at home. But if things get back to normal, I might brave it.

 

[kdonnel]

For anyone who remembers seeing the CDC report that had the IFR originally this low, they revised their numbers last week.

Now the range is .5%-.8% with a "best guess" of .65%. You can see the new numbers in the table on this link.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

The overall planning numbers did not have a best guess of .26%

The prior numbers ranged from .2% - 1% with a best guess of .4%.

The new numbers range from .5% - .8% with a best guess of .65%.

The prior report is linked to on the current page.

The new report no longer breaks it out by age bracket, only giving the overall number, but I imagine for those 64 and younger the risk is still several orders of magnitude lower then the overall number.

 

[John VN]

Gee, do I detect some magical theme of agreement permeating through this thread? Well done OP.

 

[fly girl]

I only read OP's post for Skyliner to be mentioned.

Never disappoints!

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

I noticed the op and didn't read. But I deserve a third party face palm just for clicking.

It always takes me by surprise here how many people post about how everyone they know happens to think one certain way about a topic. Of course it always aligns with the poster's viewpoint.

Never trust anyone that agrees with you all the time.

Agreed

I see what you did there. Go Jets!!!

 

[Boardwalkbrats]

I think we're still in the first wave. We had over 71,000 new cases yesterday, very close to the all time high.

The cdc reported 67,404 new cases in the United States total yesterday. Where are you getting your numbers?

 

[Searc]

I only read OP's post for Skyliner to be mentioned.

Never disappoints!

 

[tvguy]

Well if your theory is correct, since we are setting records every day, we are two months away from even starting to think about your theory. So NO, not a month, not two months, but many months away

 

[Debbie Jean]

She never comes back to the thread she creates. You can search her post history and see it.

There’s medication for that...

 

[kimblebee]

I noticed the op and didn't read. But I deserve a third party face palm just for clicking.


Never trust anyone that agrees with you all the time.

Agreed

 

[focusondisney]

This is one of the strangest posts I've seen.

All the OPs threads are strange.

 

[focusondisney]

Someone else said the virus was gonna just flow over us & be gone by April. That wasn’t true either.......

 

[barkley]

That assumes that the antibodies against COVID last long enough.

yes-this is a concern. there was a young man on the news the other evening who had covid a few months ago-symptomatic and a positive test, seemingly recovered. over july 4th weekend he started feeling symptomatic again so he was retested-positive. an english study that followed 65 covid positive patients for 90 days found a dramatic drop off in antibodies after a month including almost imperceptible levels. other studies have found that mild cases have lower antibody counts than more severe cases so what does that say about asymptomatic cases?

this isn't going to be a one and done virus for people, they will be able to be reinfected and infect others repeatedly unless/until an effective vaccine is developed.

 

[HeatherC]

The curb in those countries went down, when they took strong measures to prevent spreed. It did not go away on it's own. In fact it never did go away. Most countries experience raising numbers after a few weeks of low numbers.
I don't know where you got these numbers, but we are all experiencing a second surge.

I think we are still in the first surge. It is just slowly working it’s way through the country.

 

[I_love_Cruising]

I think we are still in the first surge. It is just slowly working it’s way through the country.

Yes,USA is.
Here in Europe, we are experiencing raising numbers again. We were kind of hopeful that the worst was over, but that turned out as an illusion.

 

[clutter]

Actually it will be insignificant in a month. Already, the data is disappearing, so if there is no information about it - does it exist?

 

[Karin1984]

Yes,USA is.
Here in Europe, we are experiencing raising numbers again. We were kind of hopeful that the worst was over, but that turned out as an illusion.

I don't agree with that fully. We are seeing hotspots, like Lisbon, Leicester, in Spain and in Germany. In Eastern Europe there are some countries where the situation gets worse, like Bulgaria, but I wouldn't say that for the entire continent it is going bad with rising numbers. It is more on local level than full countries.
That countries like Belgium implement obligatory masks in all public indoor spaces is more to prevent a second wave, not that they are already in it.

In NL we only get weekly figures since 2 weeks, yes 100 more infections than last week, but deaths went down from 19 to 8 and we are down to 18 Covid Patients in the ICU.

 

[sam_gordon]

I wonder how people decide who to ignore.

Assuming this question isn't facetious, each person would have their own reasons to put someone on ignore. And each person can go on an ignore list for a different reason.

yes-this is a concern. there was a young man on the news the other evening who had covid a few months ago-symptomatic and a positive test, seemingly recovered. over july 4th weekend he started feeling symptomatic again so he was retested-positive. an english study that followed 65 covid positive patients for 90 days found a dramatic drop off in antibodies after a month including almost imperceptible levels. other studies have found that mild cases have lower antibody counts than more severe cases so what does that say about asymptomatic cases?

this isn't going to be a one and done virus for people, they will be able to be reinfected and infect others repeatedly unless/until an effective vaccine is developed.

And if antibodies don't last long, I'm REALLY not putting a lot of hope in a vaccine.