How bad could availability for 1BRs at VGF get, really? Trying to decide BLT or VGF2 direct

[RoseGold]

That's not the point. There are people who are current members that are going to buy the VGF2 points, not for the studios, but to book 1 and 2BR at 11 months. Your SSR SAP won't do that and they know it. Whether or not they have to buy the VGF2 points or not is of no consequence, as they are already saying they are going to do it.

VGF 1BR is pretty open right now at 6-7 months, and that includes some Fall Frenzy in there. 14M points of SSR would work fine for that. That's with the 60M or so points in circulation. I don't see how 1.8M VGF2 points matters mathematically.

The highest demand room at VGF is the studio hands down. This addition is good for room balance for VGF and for O14 as a whole. I don't see why buying VGF for 1BR wouldn't work, except the most peak times, which always have a lot of pressure on all categories.

 

[Sandisw]

I mean, booking two of these studios connecting is still going to be a 45-70 point per night investment, its not exactly a bargain, especially with how many new owners will buy the minimum 150. Doing this is going to be more akin to 2BRs, and really not 1BRs at all. So will there be demand for this? yeah, of course, but lets be real that many owners aren't going to have the budget for that.

Except the cost of 2 studios is the same as a 1 bedroom and there may be some who see it as having two spaces.

I like 1 bedrooms even when traveling on my own…just in case of last minute guests..so I will always book two studios if I can’t get the 1 bedrooms.

 

[stwaldman]

Except the cost of 2 studios is the same as a 1 bedroom and there may be some who see it as having two spaces.

I like 1 bedrooms even when traveling on my own…just in case of last minute guests..so I will always book two studios if I can’t get the 1 bedrooms.

yeah, my math was off, there's is some small difference depending on the "view" type i was overstating

 

[DonMacGregor]

I mean, booking two of these studios connecting is still going to be a 45-70 point per night investment, its not exactly a bargain, especially with how many new owners will buy the minimum 150. Doing this is going to be more akin to 2BRs, and really not 1BRs at all. So will there be demand for this? yeah, of course, but lets be real that many owners aren't going to have the budget for that.

+
No, but that's the argument you hear over and over and over... And the points are closer to 1BR, not 2.

 

[Her Dotness]

I mean, booking two of these studios connecting is still going to be a 45-70 point per night investment, its not exactly a bargain, especially with how many new owners will buy the minimum 150. Doing this is going to be more akin to 2BRs, and really not 1BRs at all. So will there be demand for this? yeah, of course, but lets be real that many owners aren't going to have the budget for that.

Oh, I agree most new owners won't buy enough points to book 2 Rstus OR a 1br either one. I wasn't looking at that prospect drawing anyone who can only add 150 points unless they're DVC-savvy enough to do all the finagling to acquire more than 2-3 nights at that level VGF stay, i.e. they've a few SAP points to mix in.

I disagree that trying for 2 studios will be more akin to booking a 2br. I can see 2 Rstus being very appealing to families with pre/teens who may not care they don't get connecting (in fact might even prefer they don't!); kids on another floor isn't an issue.

For instance, parents bringing college-age siblings--they're all adults. Who cares? People bringing another 2-5 member family (relatives or friends) may not care they don't get connecting; it's still the same building by booking 2 Rstus. There's no additional charge for more than 2 adults in the room--could be a very popular category for single adults with friends. None of these will necessarily care they're not in connecting. Same building with easier access than VGF1 to amenities could be their aim, as could no food-fixing amenities.

Obviously, the ones interested in 2 Rstus being close in points to a 1br who do care about connecting will be families with younger kids. And they might easily decide not to risk getting unconnecting Rstus since it's request-only. They may already be going for the 1br because of the full kitchen and washer-dryer. If not, they're likely to stay in a single studio. I think it unlikely there'll be enough such to drive 2-Rstu or 1br demand to any extent. College looming being a big motivator to hold off on buying more/some VGF points.

We also haven't factored how many families with kids won't want VGF points at all. BRV, CCV, BLT, Poly all have more kid appeal than the stuffy old GF.

And that's another factor that could mean VGF points won't necessarily fly out--how very many find VGF snooty/stuffy/too granny, etc. We encounter a lot who say politely, "Well, I'm glad you like it there," managing not to run screaming to get away from the lunatics.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

We also haven't factored how many families with kids won't want VGF points at all. BRV, CCV, BLT, Poly all have more kid appeal than the stuffy old GF.

And that's another factor that could mean VGF points won't necessarily fly out--how very many find VGF snooty/stuffy/too granny, etc. We encounter a lot who say politely, "Well, I'm glad you like it there," managing not to run screaming to get away from the lunatics.

But the parents are the ones buying and making the decision. I don't imagine they ask the kids what they want, if the kids would even know what they're talking about. The pool/splashpad is better at VGF than BLT. We don't like pools and feel the rooms at VGF a bit too granny (before the refurbishment, at least), but plenty of people think otherwise.

We'll see if VGF will sell well. I think it will, but I also don't think it will set any records either.

 

[DVChris]

With booking two connecting Resort Studios, how many people will take the risk of making this request since there is always a chance that Disney will not be able to accommodate? I'm not sure I would.

 

[Matty B13]

With booking two connecting Resort Studios, how many people will take the risk of making this request since there is always a chance that Disney will not be able to accommodate? I'm not sure I would.

This was the same thinking when Poly came out as all studios. This was also the reason why we didn't risk it buying Poly, and instead bought VGF with 1 & 2 bedroom units.

 

[Her Dotness]

But the parents are the ones buying and making the decision. I don't imagine they ask the kids what they want, if the kids would even know what they're talking about. The pool/splashpad is better at VGF than BLT. We don't like pools and feel the rooms at VGF a bit too granny (before the refurbishment, at least), but plenty of people think otherwise.

Of course the parents are, but most want a resort their kids will enjoy. I just don't see the GF itself being that resort. It doesn't draw nearly as many families with young kids as WL, CR or Poly.

Must disagree that "plenty of people think otherwise." One has only to observe how many more kids are running about the lobby & shop areas of the other three to realize the GF isn't all that appealing.

 

[Her Dotness]

With booking two connecting Resort Studios, how many people will take the risk of making this request since there is always a chance that Disney will not be able to accommodate? I'm not sure I would.

That's my point here: Obviously, the ones interested in 2 Rstus being close in points to a 1br who do care about connecting will be families with younger kids. And they might easily decide not to risk getting unconnecting Rstus since it's request-only. They may already be going for the 1br because of the full kitchen and washer-dryer. If not, they're likely to stay in a single studio. I think it unlikely there'll be enough such to drive 2-Rstu or 1br demand to any extent. College looming being a big motivator to hold off on buying more/some VGF points.

I think 2 Rstus might be a very popular booking for the others I mentioned, though. No kitchen, closer to GF restaurants and amenities.

If they get connecting, party's on!

 

[Sandisw]

Of course the parents are, but most want a resort their kids will enjoy. I just don't see the GF itself being that resort. It doesn't draw nearly as many families with young kids as WL, CR or Poly.

Must disagree that "plenty of people think otherwise." One has only to observe how many more kids are running about the lobby & shop areas of the other three to realize the GF isn't all that appealing.

I am not sure this is true. I have stayed at VGF and BLT and have never not seen VGF filled with as many kids as BLT.

In my experience, both resorts are chosen by families when MK is a big part of the trip.

 

[Her Dotness]

I am not sure this is true. I have stayed at VGF and BLT and have never not seen VGF filled with as many kids as BLT.

Perhaps so. I've not been in BLT itself, only CR.

In terms of location, all three monorail resorts draw families with young kids because of MK, of course, as does WL.

I just haven't observed as many kids at the GF as at the other 3 MK resorts.

 

[RamblinWreck]

I really think this depends on the time of year you are planning on booking.

1 bedrooms are not high demand accommodations. Studios are.


Obviously adding a ton of points into the pool and not adding any 1 bedrooms means that you are adding at least some non-zero number of people who want a 1 bedroom accommodation, so they should be harder to come by. I don't think anyone is going to find it challenging to book them at 11 months though.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I really think this depends on the time of year you are planning on booking.

1 bedrooms are not high demand accommodations. Studios are.


Obviously adding a ton of points into the pool and not adding any 1 bedrooms means that you are adding at least some non-zero number of people who want a 1 bedroom accommodation, so they should be harder to come by. I don't think anyone is going to find it challenging to book them at 11 months though.

Hypothetically, if they sell 2,000,000 points and we assume the average is 200 points per contract (may be low with a 150 point minimum), that’s an extra 10,000 contracts introduced with no new 1BRs. How many of those new owners booking 1BRs will it take to move the needle? Assuming also that some current owners will try for resort studios rather than 1BRs once the inventory comes on line.

 

[Her Dotness]

New owners buying 200 or less won't be in the fight for 1brs for long unless they're not interested in annual stays.

At 200 or less, they'll be learning bank & borrow real fast to get a 1 br at all.

So, no, I don't see those average buy and points-poorer newbies being that much of a drain on 1br availability.

The threat will be from current VGF owners buying more points to get a 1br and get it more often. Possibly same for current members wanting more VGF stays.

I doubt there will be enough more of those to skew availability terribly--that there may scares us, because staying up to a 1br annually is our aim.

 

[supersnoop]

I like the rooms at BLT better than VGF; especially the extra bathroom in the 1bd. And lake-view rooms are frequently available at 7 months. So, I'd recommend buying resale SSR points and booking BLT lake-view rooms.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

I like the rooms at BLT better than VGF; especially the extra bathroom in the 1bd. And lake-view rooms are frequently available at 7 months. So, I'd recommend buying resale SSR points and booking BLT lake-view rooms.

I agree with this, unless you want Theme Park View, Standard View (great value!), or are going during very busy times.

 

[DonMacGregor]

New owners buying 200 or less won't be in the fight for 1brs for long unless they're not interested in annual stays.

At 200 or less, they'll be learning bank & borrow real fast to get a 1 br at all.

So, no, I don't see those average buy and points-poorer newbies being that much of a drain on 1br availability.

The threat will be from current VGF owners buying more points to get a 1br and get it more often. Possibly same for current members wanting more VGF stays.

I doubt there will be enough more of those to skew availability terribly--that there may scares us, because staying up to a 1br annually is our aim.

The 200 point number was just a number I picked to create some metric for number of new contracts. But ok, let’s say it’s an average and there are 1,000 new owners buying 500+ point contracts. Still a reasonable assumption and although fewer in number, more likely to be looking at larger rooms.

 

[CarolMN]

But ok, let’s say it’s an average and there are 1,000 new owners buying 500+ point contracts. Still a reasonable assumption and although fewer in number, more likely to be looking at larger rooms

500 * $207pp = $103,000. That's a big hunk of cash or some pretty hefty monthly payments if one finances. We can agree to disagree how many potential buyers there are who would consider that reasonable.

 

[Her Dotness]

500 * $207pp = $103,000. That's a big hunk of cash or some pretty hefty monthly payments if one finances. We can agree to disagree how many potential buyers there are who would consider that reasonable.

I agree.

We should worry, though, if Pete is looking to add at VGF. He's said he puts visiting relatives in 1brs.

500 would be a nice little add-on for him.