Poll: What will happen with Grand Floridian Resale prices?

[Ruttangel]

Of course if we all bite then these listings disappear and price will go up.

 

[happythoughts & pixiedust]

Average resale prices for VGF were in the mid 190s in the past couple months. I'd say we will see a 10% correction, with average resale prices falling into the low 170s, which is in line with Polynesian and Bay Lake, and slightly above Copper Creek. Small contracts will retain value better as they won't be competing against incentives. Fully loaded 100 pt and lower contracts are competing against an effective direct price of $220 pp (since direct doesn't include 2021 points). I think somewhere between $30-$50 spread between resale and direct is a reasonable assumption....which would put fully loaded 100 pt. and lower resale contracts in the 170-190 range, around an average of 180.

Sure, there may be deals to be had at lower prices from distressed/motivated sellers. Large contracts (300+) may well drop down into the $150s. Will be interesting to see if Disney ROFRs anything this low, as they were doing prior to the recent run up in prices considering they have new VGF points to sell. I'm guessing Disney will ROFR anything under 150, and may even ROFR sales under 160.

VGF2 direct sales will probably also keep resale prices on all the Magic Kingdom area resorts from appreciating very quickly, keeping them in pace with each other until VGF2 sells out. There isn't any reason why VGF should have been trading so much higher than BLT or PVB except for the fact that the supply was so limited. Supply is much closer to equalizing now and with so many more studios available, people who want to stay at VGF may be able to do it at 7 mo on SAP, thus not having to buy there anymore for home resort advantage.

A year from now I see VGF, BLT, PVB all in the low 180s. I think it's reasonable to assume there may be smaller spreads between resale and direct pricing in the future if blue card benefits continue to be devalued.

 

[mustinjourney]

Based on that, would you recommend breaking up a direct contract into 50,75,100 points if buying more than 200 points? Is the potential added value enough to cover the additional closing costs?

yes -- that's what I did on my RIV contract.

 

[SleeplessInTO]

This was posted by DVC Resale Market earlier today:


"Hey does anyone know if there's been any 'Grand' DVC news recently?"

With all the excitement surrounding the Grand Floridian today it goes without saying that we at the DVC Resale Market have been very busy - many of you may be wondering (and many have already asked us directly) --- "So I'm looking at the Grand Floridian on resale and with the Disney news, are the prices of resale going to stay the same as I see some of them that are close to or even a little more expensive than buying direct now with the new promotions?"

The answer to that is ....GET READY! We have been reaching out to many of our Grand Floridian sellers all morning and are working on close to 10 awesome Grand Floridian listings that have been or will be reduced to as low as the $160's per point! That is not a typo - this is your chance to buy the Grand Floridian in the 160's per point!

You can now roll back the clock and buy Grand Floridian at almost the same price it originally went on sale for and don't have to say "Sigh....I wish I would have done this sooner"

At these prices in the $160's these Grand Floridian listings are definitely not gonna last long so make sure you stay tuned to our page and the Grand Floridian listings (link below) for additional details and reach out to us with any questions!

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/listings/grand-floridian/

 

[davidl81]

This assumes that the downward pressure wouldn't spill out to SSR (and AKV and OKW) too.

It’s unlikely that there would be enough VGF contracts on the market to actually put significant downward pressure on the other resorts. VGF1 was a very small resort. And by the time VGF2 sells out direct pricing may be much much higher. This will be just a temporary blip on the resale radar I think. I would expect some VGF sellers to maybe pull their contracts off of the market though since in the near term they are most likely going to sell for 85% or so of what they had planned for.

 

[DonMacGregor]

This was posted by DVC Resale Market earlier today:


"Hey does anyone know if there's been any 'Grand' DVC news recently?"

With all the excitement surrounding the Grand Floridian today it goes without saying that we at the DVC Resale Market have been very busy - many of you may be wondering (and many have already asked us directly) --- "So I'm looking at the Grand Floridian on resale and with the Disney news, are the prices of resale going to stay the same as I see some of them that are close to or even a little more expensive than buying direct now with the new promotions?"

The answer to that is ....GET READY! We have been reaching out to many of our Grand Floridian sellers all morning and are working on close to 10 awesome Grand Floridian listings that have been or will be reduced to as low as the $160's per point! That is not a typo - this is your chance to buy the Grand Floridian in the 160's per point!

You can now roll back the clock and buy Grand Floridian at almost the same price it originally went on sale for and don't have to say "Sigh....I wish I would have done this sooner"

At these prices in the $160's these Grand Floridian listings are definitely not gonna last long so make sure you stay tuned to our page and the Grand Floridian listings (link below) for additional details and reach out to us with any questions!

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/listings/grand-floridian/

So far it looks like they've had a grand total of 4 takers on their pricing reduction efforts.

 

[sethschroeder]

which is in line with Polynesian and Bay Lake, and slightly above Copper Creek.

I think you see those contracts also going lower as people opt for VGF instead when prices are "in line" as opposed to different.

A year from now I see VGF, BLT, PVB all in the low 180s.

I don't think VGF is sold out by then. That would be 160k points per month.

 

[MinnieSueB]

yes -- that's what I did on my RIV contract.

That's what I did with our RIV contracts too plus it helps to leave it to our 2 DDs.

 

[mustinjourney]

That's what I did with our RIV contracts too plus it helps to leave it to our 2 DDs.

I’ve got two kids and two riviera contracts (50/100). They’ll have to fight for supremacy!!!

 

[RoseGold]

There it is. Listing in the 150s! We are back to peak Covid.

 

[nuhusky123]

There it is. Listing in the 150s! We are back to peak Covid.

That was fast. I doubt we have seen the floor then if prices shot down to $156

prices might go into $140 territory for a while and then come back up

 

[JGINPL]

There it is. Listing in the 150s! We are back to peak Covid.

Wow this will be interesting on what will happen with all points and prices in the near future.

 

[pianomanzano]

An update from my endeavors. A lot of sellers out there refusing to budge from the 180-190 price range for 100-150 pt contracts. Some brokers have already talked to sellers about adjusting their listings and I think we're starting to see that now. Baffling though that one broker agent I spoke to thought that the direct pricing at $207/point was only if you bought 200+ points. Have one contract that we might be close to agreeing on a price point today, keeping my fingers crossed!

 

[RamblinWreck]

An update from my endeavors. A lot of sellers out there refusing to budge from the 180-190 price range for 100-150 pt contracts. Some brokers have already talked to sellers about adjusting their listings and I think we're starting to see that now. Baffling though that one broker agent I spoke to thought that the direct pricing at $207/point was only if you bought 200+ points. Have one contract that we might be close to agreeing on a price point today, keeping my fingers crossed!

I don’t blame them.

If they don’t care about moving the thing quickly, they could just keep using it for a couple of years or even rent out the points.

But I don’t anticipate anyone actually buying at those prices until it’s sold out again.

 

[kboo]

Based on that, would you recommend breaking up a direct contract into 50,75,100 points if buying more than 200 points? Is the potential added value enough to cover the additional closing costs?

Yes!

I’ve got two kids and two riviera contracts (50/100). They’ll have to fight for supremacy!!!

You should probably change your screen name to "KingLear" now...
We did 2x125 at Riviera, and now I wish we'd bought 2x150, or 2x200... (this is what happens when you tour a GV)

It works out to around $6k more for the blue card which is tempting.

Although we had a blue card and grandfathered points, we were considering adding on BLT or buying RIV direct, and it was a $5000 difference to get a new home resort, have a resort closer to EP/HS, and not have to deal with ROFR, etc. It was SO worth it.

Small contracts will retain value better as they won't be competing against incentives. Fully loaded 100 pt and lower contracts are competing against an effective direct price of $220 pp (since direct doesn't include 2021 points). I think somewhere between $30-$50 spread between resale and direct is a reasonable assumption....which would put fully loaded 100 pt. and lower resale contracts in the 170-190 range, around an average of 180.

I was just about to say that there will still be a reasonable market for fully loaded contracts. And those are the buyers most susceptible to addonitis because they had 1-2 years of "double points" and when they have used up their banked points and start borrowing to fund their DVC lifestyle ...

I have a friend who is in ROFR on 100 pts at $195. I suggested to them to wait for VGF2 pricing since they love VGF, but ... they didn't want to buy 150 points.

Even if she could have gotten 150 points at $197, that's still a total price difference of $10,000; not sure I would have paid $10,000 extra for more points (that I think I don't need*) and a blue card.

*Believe me, I tried. I was like - look at the point charts, your kid isn't in school yet, but it will happen before you know it; every time we have bought a new home resort we have upped the base # of points we bought and still don't think it's enough, etc ...

 

[CarolMN]

There are still several listings for contracts under 150 points that are actually more than $207pp. I see contracts for 60 points listed at $210pp with no points coming until 2023.

A non-Member is obviously the only market for those contracts. But IMO, he/she would have to really want VGF to pay that.

 

[Sandisw]

That was fast. I doubt we have seen the floor then if prices shot down to $156

prices might go into $140 territory for a while and then come back up

It is possible because now that we are back to active sales, if it follows the same trend, they won’t ROFR no matter the price.

 

[DKZB]

I think this is a bit of wait and see. With the Intro Promo you are at $186 @ 200pts / $185 @ 250pts / $179 @ 300 pts etc.
Come 3/31 those go up to $190 @ 200pts / $189 @ 250pts / $183 @ 300 pts etc. with new members prices expected about $5 higher.
If we assume resale is 80% of New Member Pricing that puts a 200 pt contract at $156 but sellers will need to be willing to sell that low and there will be a limited supply of willing sellers for some time. My guess is we see prices settle in in the high $150s to low $160s - Similar to CCV and BLT pricing

 

[RamblinWreck]

I think this is a bit of wait and see. With the Intro Promo you are at $186 @ 200pts / $185 @ 250pts / $179 @ 300 pts etc.
Come 3/31 those go up to $190 @ 200pts / $189 @ 250pts / $183 @ 300 pts etc. with new members prices expected about $5 higher.
If we assume resale is 80% of New Member Pricing that puts a 200 pt contract at $156 but sellers will need to be willing to sell that low and there will be a limited supply of willing sellers for some time. My guess is we see prices settle in in the high $150s to low $160s - Similar to CCV and BLT pricing

My gut says this is about the right range.

But with Disney likely not actively ROFR'ing these contracts while in sales mode, there's a potential for many to sell lower than that.

 

[RoseGold]

Poly is listing in the 150s now. Big shift from the 180s it was holding at. I expect it to go lower. I don't think that's low enough to move against this VGF2 pricing.