Let's speculate about Polynesian some more!

[BrianLo]

Combining @aka Charles post from last September with existing PVB room count.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/the-poly2-pricing-thread.3875905/page-74#post-65060506

Combined resort may have:

• 24 duo studios
• 360 longhouse studios
• 138 tower studios
• 88 tower lockoff studios
• 88 tower lockoff 1BRs
• 6 tower dedicated 2BRs
• Possibly 8 tower GVs???
• 20 bungalows

I think @ehh (or maybe someone else) found an extra set of Duo Studios and they thought its count was 36? Or 48?

But I have no idea where that post was or if I'm making it up.

 

[maui22]

I think @ehh (or maybe someone else) found an extra set of Duo Studios and they thought its count was 36? Or 48?

But I have no idea where that post was or if I'm making it up.

You are right. @aka Charles had a couple of later posts. That’s what I get for not looking further in that thread.

Here is his post about the additional duo studios.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/the-poly2-pricing-thread.3875905/page-78#post-65063869

Here is his updated room count post
https://www.disboards.com/threads/the-poly2-pricing-thread.3875905/page-78#post-65063903

Here is the corrected room count values for PVB + Tower resort may have:

• 30 duo studios
• 360 longhouse studios
• 138 tower studios
• 88 tower lockoff studios
• 88 tower lockoff 1BRs
• 6 tower dedicated 2BRs
• Possibly 8 tower GVs???
• 20 bungalows

 

[Cabius]

The VGF bedrooms have limited/modest views. I would believe that the standard PVB Tower 1/2 bedrooms will be only slightly higher than the VGF ones, but I would expect that about half of them will be “theme park view” and more than 125% of VGF 1/2 bedrooms.

Fair! I was thinking in terms of comparing room types, but the shift in room mix would result in more higher-point rooms at PVB relative to VGF.

 

[maui22]

The VGF bedrooms have limited/modest views. I would believe that the standard PVB Tower 1/2 bedrooms will be only slightly higher than the VGF ones, but I would expect that about half of them will be “theme park view” and more than 125% of VGF 1/2 bedrooms.

Might GF and Poly hotel side lake view rooms prices offer the best example?

If this article from 2021 is correct, GF costs more. I am shocked by how much more the article says.
https://www.disneytouristblog.com/polynesian-grand-floridian-hotel-comparison/

Cost: Polynesian – While these are the two most expensive resorts in all of Walt Disney World when comparing standard rooms, the Grand Floridian is significantly more expensive.


While rates vary by season and room category, you can expect to pay about 20% more for a comparable room at the Grand Floridian.

 

[Amyunder]

Everything I've seen about poly tower really reminds me of VDH with 2 bath 1 bedrooms and majority lockoffs. I wouldn't be the least surprised if the tower was predominantly 5 sleeping studios because the price point of those studios is going to be right at the 150-200 points which is exactly where most buyers are. The few and far between point rich people will be booking those dedicated two bedrooms but they are similar to the bungalow and GV population and not the bulk of buyers.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

For those who followed along last year, when did they release all the details (room breakdown, floorplan, concept art/theming, etc) about VDH? I know it went on sale in May and opened at the end of September but just curious what that timeline looked like and what we might expect here for the Poly Tower.

I believe the projected date still says late 2024 so if we go by Dec 21st to follow the VDH template, sales should start by August. Are we still months away from potential details or did the VDH details get revealed months before sales started?

 

[Wedgeout]

W

For those who followed along last year, when did they release all the details (room breakdown, floorplan, concept art/theming, etc) about VDH? I know it went on sale in May and opened at the end of September but just curious what that timeline looked like and what we might expect here for the Poly Tower.

I believe the projected date still says late 2024 so if we go by Dec 21st to follow the VDH template, sales should start by August. Are we still months away from potential details or did the VDH details get revealed months before sales started?

We had good 12 story floor plans with the rooms back in March 2022 for VDH.

 

[Cabius]

For those who followed along last year, when did they release all the details (room breakdown, floorplan, concept art/theming, etc) about VDH? I know it went on sale in May and opened at the end of September but just curious what that timeline looked like and what we might expect here for the Poly Tower.

I believe the projected date still says late 2024 so if we go by Dec 21st to follow the VDH template, sales should start by August. Are we still months away from potential details or did the VDH details get revealed months before sales started?

Looks like VDH room details were released in March 2023, a couple of months before they went on sale. If PVB|T| goes on sale in August, then a similar timeframe would lead one to expect a ~June release of room details.

Might GF and Poly hotel side lake view rooms prices offer the best example?

If this article from 2021 is correct, GF costs more. I am shocked by how much more the article says.
https://www.disneytouristblog.com/polynesian-grand-floridian-hotel-comparison/

Pricing is weird, but I think cash-rate demand patterns are different, and there are other anchoring factors.

Given that PVB Standard Studios cost more than VGF Standard Studios, it's hard for me to imagine that they will price the PVB|T| Studios at 80% of the VGF rate. That would make them significantly cheaper than the existing PVB Longhouse studios, signaling that it is an inferior product. The units may be smaller and have less bathroom space, so it's possible they'll go in that direction, but I can't imagine that's how they really want to market their shiny new tower.

More importantly, how often does DVD roll out a smaller point chart for such a premiere piece of real estate?

Now, 1BR / 2BR patterns don't have to follow the ratios, and could theoretically be relatively cheaper.

But I'd be surprised if their fancy new tower was any kind of bargain!

 

[Cabius]

Everything I've seen about poly tower really reminds me of VDH with 2 bath 1 bedrooms and majority lockoffs.

Do you mean the majority of 1BRs are lock-offs, or the majority of units overall?

My understanding is that VDH is overwhelmingly studios, with relatively few LOs. (Even then, there are more dedicated 2BRs than there are LOs!)



I'd be surprised if this was the new normal for DVC in Florida. WDW guests tend to stay for longer. Being locked into the Disney Bubble makes having a full kitchen more valuable; there are a lot more convenient/cheap dining options in Anaheim. Plus, the tax situation in Anaheim makes stays in those larger units a lot more expensive, above-and-beyond the cost of DVC.

I'd be fairly surprised if any WDW resort ended up with a room mix that was so heavily tilted toward Studios. That's what they did with PVB, but they haven't repeated it so far.

 

[Amyunder]

Do you mean the majority of 1BRs are lock-offs, or the majority of units overall?

My understanding is that VDH is overwhelmingly studios, with relatively few LOs. (Even then, there are more dedicated 2BRs than there are LOs!)

View attachment 848127

I'd be surprised if this was the new normal for DVC in Florida. WDW guests tend to stay for longer. Being locked into the Disney Bubble makes having a full kitchen more valuable; there are a lot more convenient/cheap dining options in Anaheim. Plus, the tax situation in Anaheim makes stays in those larger units a lot more expensive, above-and-beyond the cost of DVC.

I'd be fairly surprised if any WDW resort ended up with a room mix that was so heavily tilted toward Studios. That's what they did with PVB, but they haven't repeated it so far.

Majority of 1 and 2 bedrooms are lockoffs. It's all studios

 

[Amyunder]

Do you mean the majority of 1BRs are lock-offs, or the majority of units overall?

My understanding is that VDH is overwhelmingly studios, with relatively few LOs. (Even then, there are more dedicated 2BRs than there are LOs!)

View attachment 848127

I'd be surprised if this was the new normal for DVC in Florida. WDW guests tend to stay for longer. Being locked into the Disney Bubble makes having a full kitchen more valuable; there are a lot more convenient/cheap dining options in Anaheim. Plus, the tax situation in Anaheim makes stays in those larger units a lot more expensive, above-and-beyond the cost of DVC.

I'd be fairly surprised if any WDW resort ended up with a room mix that was so heavily tilted toward Studios. That's what they did with PVB, but they haven't repeated it so far.

I like @ehhs breakdown of balanced resorts where all the rooms book evenly and adding all those studios to vgf made it more balanced. I think the point chart is going to be really high for this tower and those who would normally opt for a kitchen to get costs down won't have that luxury because the points that a 1 and 2 bedroom demand outweigh the cost savings. I think Disney knows this and is targeting studios for this build mug like the VDH tower. I'm not an expert on anything but I think this tower is ratcheting down to meet the buyers who are going in for studio price points. The days of $87 points are over where you bought DVC for the two bedroom. 350 point contracts are big bucks now and I really think Disney knows their buyers are at the 150 point level which would be a week in studio (maybe.... 200 for some weeks).

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

W

We had good 12 story floor plans with the rooms back in March 2022 for VDH.

2022? Wow that’s so much earlier than we have here. It’s funny how differently they treat each project.

Looks like VDH room details were released in March 2023, a couple of months before they went on sale. If PVB|T| goes on sale in August, then a similar timeframe would lead one to expect a ~June release of room details.

Ok this makes sense. I think this is when they told us when it would go on sale and opening date, too, right? Still, June feels soooo far away (as someone who has a Poly trip at the end of June it really is so many days away haha). And this timeline is if the tower really does open by the end of this year.

You’d think they would at least release floor plans since the shell is built and the rooms have likely been delineated now, so no going back on room counts and floor plans. Thanks for the info!

 

[CastAStone]

2022? Wow that’s so much earlier than we have here. It’s funny how differently they treat each project.

July 2020 actually.

But it’s because they had to submit detailed plans to the city of Anaheim who posted them for public comment.

No such requirements in Lake Buena Vista and Bay Lake, Florida.

 

[maui22]

Anyone know how Disney treats the points for studio/1BR lockoffs?
Do they sell 50% of the points for these combinations using the 2BR discount and the other 50% using the studio + 1BR point charts?

 

[maui22]

July 2020 actually.

But it’s because they had to submit detailed plans to the city of Anaheim who posted them for public comment.

No such requirements in Lake Buena Vista and Bay Lake, Florida.

Weird part is Disney used to put out information much sooner for even Florida properties.
CFW was a significantly shorter time period on the timeshare license to opening than any property in the last 12 years.

Anxiously awaiting the timeshare license approval so we can compare it to CFW for a timeline.

 

[Sandisw]

You are right. @aka Charles had a couple of later posts. That’s what I get for not looking further in that thread.

Here is his post about the additional duo studios.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/the-poly2-pricing-thread.3875905/page-78#post-65063869

Here is his updated room count post
https://www.disboards.com/threads/the-poly2-pricing-thread.3875905/page-78#post-65063903

Here is the corrected room count values for PVB + Tower resort may have:

• 30 duo studios
• 360 longhouse studios
• 138 tower studios
• 88 tower lockoff studios
• 88 tower lockoff 1BRs
• 6 tower dedicated 2BRs
• Possibly 8 tower GVs???
• 20 bungalows

I wonder what they are going to classify the studios as because they can’t use tower studio as that exists at RIV as the duo.

Even seeing this list confused me at first. I imagine they are going to have to come up with néw names because studios in the long houses will be different than those in the tower, based on the plans.

My guess is we may even see Poly tower have its own point charts, and won’t be on one with PVB…this would keep it a lot less confusing.

 

[CarolynFH]

Anyone know how Disney treats the points for studio/1BR lockoffs?
Do they sell 50% of the points for these combinations using the 2BR discount and the other 50% using the studio + 1BR point charts?

Per timeshare law, a 2BR lockoff counts as a 2BR - in TS terminology, lockoffs and dedicated are all "2BR equivalents." Only dedicated studios and 1BR are valued at their specific point cost.

Search for "2020 points charts" here for more discussion on that matter!

 

[Cabius]

Just for fun, and to try to bring some more data into the picture, I analyzed the distribution of point values by room/view type across current DVC resorts. (All values are per-week for the sake of simplicity. I have this for all seasons, but am using Season 2 as an example below. I'm also excluding all views other than S, L, and TP, since I'm trying to find points of comparison for the Poly).



My hypothesis is that, given a Standard Studio point value, one can reasonably infer the rough price of other room/view types based on historical averages. DVD isn't required to follow a formula here, and there is variance in the data, but they set these prices for a reason, and there are reasonably consistent multipliers.

Historically, a Standard-view 1BR has been a bit more than 2x the price of a Studio. It varies by resort - from a low of 93% at BLT to a high of 134% at BWV -- but averages 107%. RIV and VGF are higher, at 114%. I think 110% is a reasonable estimate here.



2BR inventory can be measured as either a multiple of Studio pricing or as a multiple of 1BR pricing. Other than OKW and BWV, they've been reasonably consistent with 2BRs costing about 30% more than 1BRs and about 1.6x more than Studios. There is some variance -- BLT had relatively cheap 1BRs and relatively expensive 2BRs, while RIV and VGF are just painful across the board.



There's obviously some guesswork involved in even data-informed guest work, but I'd guess that a 1BR will be 110% more than a Studio, and a 2BR will be ~30% more than a 1BR (173% more than a Studio). That's based on historical data, but fairly heavily weighted toward the recent builds -- this is more like RIV than like OKW.

My other hypothesis is that Tower Studio point values will likely match existing Longhouse point values.

• If the longhouses are larger units and/or have that second shower, it's hard to justify much of a premium
• They also don't want to position the new product as inferior
• For the sake of simplicity, if it's the same association, might as well just make them match
• That's what they did recently with VGF

If we assume that is true, we can plug in multipliers and get a rough approximation of what a point chart might look like:



It's certainly possible that they'll price the new Studios differently (higher or lower) than the Longhouses, or that they will apply different multipliers for different views/rooms. (In particular, I question whether they can really offer a premium 'theme park' room when it is so far across the lagoon, or at least whether they can command the type of premium for it they could from a closer resort.)

But I think it's an interesting exercise in what it might look like, using historical data (especially from VGF, BLT, and RIV) as expectation anchor points.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

My guess is we may even see Poly tower have its own point charts, and won’t be on one with PVB…this would keep it a lot less confusing.

This is what I've been thinking as well. I think it makes sense they classify both separately.

 

[maui22]

I wonder what they are going to classify the studios as because they can’t use tower studio as that exists at RIV as the duo.

Even seeing this list confused me at first. I imagine they are going to have to come up with néw names because studios in the long houses will be different than those in the tower, based on the plans.

My guess is we may even see Poly tower have its own point charts, and won’t be on one with PVB…this would keep it a lot less confusing.

I hope they make them separate booking categories.

Otherwise people may show up at the tower desk with luggage thinking they are there, but then have to drag their luggage across the entire property to a longhouse on the complete opposite end of Polynesian.

It's similar to AKV Jambo/Kidani. Same resort, but different booking categories.