5th gate and DVC

[nuhusky123]

Starting to see investors predict impact from universals third gate and that Disney will have to respond with a fifth gate

if Disney is forced to build a new park I think dvc would want to reserve their capital to build new resorts at said new park

this has me predicting that there will be no new dvc resorts until a fifth park is built and until then only hotel room conversions like gfv

as to location seems like only logical place for the new gate would be between hollywood and animal kingdom

 

[Royal Consort]

I would anticipate Disney may continue adding lands to existing parks rather than a 5th gate. It would remain competitive but not overcapitalise.

 

[DisneyOutsider]

Laughing at the thought of Disney trying to staff an entire additional gate without it being a complete dookie-show

 

[lowlight]

I would anticipate Disney may continue adding lands to existing parks rather than a 5th gate. It would remain competitive but not overcapitalise.

Financially it probably is the best option, but it doesn’t alleviate the throughput issues. Would mean more people at gate lines, using that parks transportation etc.

 

[nuhusky123]

With epic universe I think more people will visit universal and stay in I drive area. Epic universe is going to be a wild success

disney has to respond

 

[ScubaCat]

They can't seem to fully staff or maintain the 4 parks they have already. That aside, there are massive logistical problems operating a 5th park within the existing infrastructure. I'll never say never, but I'd also be very surprised if it happened.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

Universal will dominate over Disney. I wonder how many people stay at disney but head to universal.

 

[davidl81]

Capital is never going to be an issue for DVC/Disney.

 

[nuhusky123]

Universal will dominate over Disney. I wonder how many people stay at disney but head to universal.

Interesting thought. What if universal builds timeshares within walking distance to epic universe.

Could that start to swing things even more for universal

 

[SleeplessInTO]

Good. I hope Universal does well. Competition is good for Disney and will force them to innovate and change for the better, instead of relying on nostalgia to coast by. There’s no capital problem, they’re “saving” plenty of cash through suspending dividends.

 

[Royal Consort]

Universal will dominate over Disney. I wonder how many people stay at disney but head to universal.

I don't foresee Universal 'dominating' Disney as the brand is too strong. Disney will still be the market leader but I do think it will reduce market share with guests increasingly dividing their time between both brands (including more staying onsite at Universal). This is now substantially easier with Disney's short sighted decision to cease magical express. Now the company isn't even locking its own guests on-site and they are free to explore alternatives. I know I will be.

Franchises like Nintendo and How to Train Your Dragon are a direct competitor to Disney's family market. It will be interesting times as I expect Epic Universe to be a well themed family style Magic Kingdom alternative. As a gamer, I am beyond excited with the quality of Nintendo World and I think the Donkey Kong area will make everyone feel like an 8 year old again.

 

[Jelly563]

With no magic express, I will now rent a car I can use to check out universal. That was never an option before

 

[lowlight]

Disney has the IP. That’s worth a lot. In the grand scheme of things, Disney has stated they want to have less, more spendy guests. If they lose market share to Universal, they will turn the cost dial up and get more out of each guest. If enough guests don’t come, they will turn up the discount dial and attract more. If not enough stay on site, they will turn up the on site incentive dial. I think they have spent years deciding to do this and creating the dials to manage crowds artificially, they are not afraid of losing customers, they are only scared of losing profit.

 

[RoseGold]

Im glad the Halcyon reviews seem to be good. The Halcyon experience, but Harry Potter, would be my dream theme park experience. I hope it happens.

 

[nuhusky123]

Im glad the Halcyon reviews seem to be good. The Halcyon experience, but Harry Potter, would be my dream theme park experience. I hope it happens.

I’d love a hog warts themed hotel but I have to admit the idea of cosplaying and being in a forced interaction with cast members freaks me out

i love Star Wars but I’ll never go because the idea of being locked in a windowless building for two days forced to interact with random strangers is my definition of hell

 

[Matty B13]

Yep, no magical express = my family heading to Universal this April for 3 days..... and Disney for 4 days instead of 7 days at WDW. If I'm renting a minivan then I'm definitely going to go somewhere else during our vacation week.

 

[Nabas]

With epic universe I think more people will visit universal and stay in I drive area. Epic universe is going to be a wild success

disney has to respond

Disney failed miserably when they played hardball with J.K. Rowling, ultimately resulting in the revitalization of Universal Orlando.

I agree that Disney should respond.

I don't know if Disney's leadership is able to get past their "we're Disney, people will pay a premium no matter what we do" attitude in order to effectively respond.

 

[nuhusky123]

Disney failed miserably when they played hardball with J.K. Rowling, ultimately resulting in the revitalization of Universal Orlando.

I agree that Disney should respond.

I don't know if Disney's leadership is able to get past their "we're Disney, people will pay a premium no matter what we do" attitude in order to effectively respond.

History is littered with companies who under estimate their competitors. Will universal put Disney world out of business, not even a 0.000001% chance but will universal take market share. I think that is 100% certainty especially as Disney increases prices and universal innovates

disney failing to respond with something of equal scale is at their own peril. Adding on a ride here or there isn’t going to cut it in my view. I won’t go buy a magic kingdom ticket just to go on tron . I buy a ticket for the entire mk experience. If Disney wants to upsell me I need to a new gate otherwise I view these new rides as simply maintaining the existing park

if epic universe can better match the Disney vibe then Disney is in real trouble in my view

 

[lowlight]

History is littered with companies who under estimate their competitors. Will universal put Disney world out of business, not even a 0.000001% chance but will universal take market share. I think that is 100% certainty especially as Disney increases prices and universal innovates

disney failing to respond with something of equal scale is at their own peril. Adding on a ride here or there isn’t going to cut it in my view. I won’t go buy a magic kingdom ticket just to go on torn. I buy a ticket for the entire mk experience. If Disney wants to upsell me I need to a new gate otherwise I view these new rides as simply maintaining the existing park

if epic universe can better match the Disney vibe then Disney is in real trouble in my view

Oh they will definitely take the undesirable segment Disney doesn’t want. “The people in the cheaper Universal parks, clap your hands. And the rest of you at Disney, if you’d just rattle your jewelry.”

 

[wnielsen1]

A few comments:

1. Universal is not this value play people tend to make it out to be. Have you priced the deluxe Loews hotels? How about tickets? Have you compared those prices to 5 years ago? 8 years ago? Are people really going to go into Universal for 5 days, 7 days, 10 days? Now, none of this is not meant to be a knock on Universal. They have been upping their game for years now, and the Harry Potter stuff is phenomenal.
2. Ride sharing along with Universal adding Harry Potter assisted in killing Magical Express. As much as Iger/Chapek are maligned, I don't think they woke up one morning and said, let's kill off DME. I think they woke up and said, let's look into whether DME is still providing benefits that exceed the costs. They have access to data that we cannot even fathom.
3. My ears keep telling me people are fed up with Disney. My eyes keep telling me that the Disney parks are jammed full. Disney will adjust in our favor when that is no longer the case. Until then, expect more of the same.