Buying Aulani

[DisneyMimiUSMC]

My husband and I are looking to buy an Aulani contract and I'd like some guidance. Am I right in prioritizing a subsidized dues contract? Is there a price point that you'd consider an unsubsidized contract? Ideally we'd travel in October or November biannually, so am I right in choosing and October or December use year? Any opinions are appreciated!

 

[LittleBitGoofy]

Probably wouldn't want a December UY if you're traveling in October/November. Sept/Oct would work better as a UY for Oct/Nov trips.

We travel October through May, so an October UY was perfect for us. I would recommend reading up on banking deadlines to learn more on why it typically works best to not have your prime travel months in the last four months of a UY.

 

[DisneyMimiUSMC]

Thank you for that!

 

[AwfulWaffle]

Subsidized dues are the dream but very few come up and when they do they don’t hang around long if they are priced correctly. The sweet spot is 115 to 125 from what I have seen for the past six months of trying to find one. Mostly just luck and actively checking site regularly because they are gone within an hour of posting usually. If you don’t mind the dues then aulani resale is a cheap buy atm and can pick it up anywhere from 90 to 100. Best of luck either way! We are going this summer for the first time and can’t wait!

 

[DisneyMimiUSMC]

Subsidized dues are the dream but very few come up and when they do they don’t hang around long if they are priced correctly. The sweet spot is 115 to 125 from what I have seen for the past six months of trying to find one. Mostly just luck and actively checking site regularly because they are gone within an hour of posting usually. If you don’t mind the dues then aulani resale is a cheap buy atm and can pick it up anywhere from 90 to 100. Best of luck either way! We are going this summer for the first time and can’t wait!

Thank you!

 

[CarolynFH]

As above, for October and November visits, you do not want a December UY. You want to travel early in your UY, not at the end. This thread can help you understand why - https://www.disboards.com/threads/understanding-use-year-updated-february-10-2021.1942668/

 

[CarolynFH]

Also, while a subsidized contract would be ideal, there are very few, and I’m not sure that all UY were sold. Sales of Aulani were halted shortly after they began, for reasons explained here: https://dvcnews.com/resorts/aulani-villas/news-46018/1717-aulani-dues-error-leads-to-33-increase

 

[NorCalFanatic]

I’m sure it’ll ruffle some feathers but I think people make a bigger deal out of subsidized contracts than necessary. Trading point cost for subsidized dues. It’s a unicorn and you could be searching for awhile for the perfect subsidized contract. We recently added on more Aulani points at about $90 a point. Took a few months to find the use year and size we wanted and then negotiated a price. If we had held out for a subsidized contract we’d still be looking. But, everyone has different priorities!

 

[DisneyMimiUSMC]

I’m sure it’ll ruffle some feathers but I think people make a bigger deal out of subsidized contracts than necessary. Trading point cost for subsidized dues. It’s a unicorn and you could be searching for awhile for the perfect subsidized contract. We recently added on more Aulani points at about $90 a point. Took a few months to find the use year and size we wanted and then negotiated a price. If we had held out for a subsidized contract we’d still be looking. But, everyone has different priorities!

Do you think there is a price point that makes it worth buying unsubsidized? Below $90?

 

[NorCalFanatic]

Do you think there is a price point that makes it worth buying unsubsidized? Below $90?

I can’t answer that as everyone has different priorities. Our priority was getting the best price for the number of points and the use year we wanted.

 

[intamin]

The most common subsidized use year is March which would actually still work for you. That being said even though I own a subsidized Aulani contract, consider how much of a difference in price between nonsubsidized and subsidized. If you're planning to own Aulani until expiration in 2062, then yes likely the subsidized contract would be the better option, if you're only planning to keep it less than 15 years, there's an argument to be made for the nonsubsidized contract in terms of lower buy in cost and opportunity cost. I would try to aim for low 80s or lower if you're trying to go with unsubsidized. If not I'd probably do subsidized.

Very basic calculation but 2024 dues for Aulani is 9.76, sub dues Aulani is 7.34

Assuming 40 dollar per point difference between sub dues and unsub, 40/2.42 = 16.5 years before the sub dues beats out the unsub; however, if the dues continue to increase at a higher rate, the 25% discount in dues will make the sub dues Aulani contract break even faster but again this does not factor in opportunity cost which is why IMO a greatly discounted unsub contract can be just as good as a subsidized contract.

Edit: Just wanted to add for others who already own other contracts the other benefit of doing an unsub contract is obviously there are far more use years to pick from if you're trying to match

 

[NorCalFanatic]

The most common subsidized use year is March which would actually still work for you. That being said even though I own a subsidized Aulani contract, consider how much of a difference in price between nonsubsidized and subsidized. If you're planning to own Aulani until expiration in 2062, then yes likely the subsidized contract would be the better option, if you're only planning to keep it less than 15 years, there's an argument to be made for the nonsubsidized contract in terms of lower buy in cost and opportunity cost. I would try to aim for low 80s or lower if you're trying to go with unsubsidized. If not I'd probably do subsidized.

Very basic calculation but 2024 dues for Aulani is 9.76, sub dues Aulani is 7.34

Assuming 40 dollar per point difference between sub dues and unsub, 40/2.42 = 16.5 years before the sub dues beats out the unsub; however, if the dues continue to increase at a higher rate, the 25% discount in dues will make the sub dues Aulani contract break even faster but again this does not factor in opportunity cost which is why IMO a greatly discounted unsub contract can be just as good as a subsidized contract.

I hope I live long enough for our Aulani to expire but honestly I doubt we’ll be traveling there as I’ll be pushing 90 at that point. We bought in at VDH as well and I’ll be 101 when that expires. Obviously we don’t plan on holding that long. We’ll break even on Aulani in 5 more years and 7 for VDH. We figured 15-20 years of vacations and then sell or pass to the kids. I’ll be 70ish in 20 years so ant that point we’ll just see what happens. The bulk of our contracts are in 150-175 increments for easier selling down the line or passing off to the kids (or both). Having immediate access to points to travel was more important, which is why we bought direct and then added on resale.

At the time we bought we wanted to book Aulani in 3 months which dvc helped us do. That wouldn’t have happened buying resale, waiting for rofr, points to transfer etc. After that initial trip we loved it and then decided to add on A Lot more resale. Now we go for 10 days and take extended family in their own room once a year.

 

[AstroBlasters]

How many points are you trying to build up to?

 

[intamin]

I hope I live long enough for our Aulani to expire but honestly I doubt we’ll be traveling there as I’ll be pushing 90 at that point. We bought in at VDH as well and I’ll be 101 when that expires. Obviously we don’t plan on holding that long. We’ll break even on Aulani in 5 more years and 7 for VDH. We figured 15-20 years of vacations and then sell or pass to the kids. I’ll be 70ish in 20 years so ant that point we’ll just see what happens. The bulk of our contracts are in 150-175 increments for easier selling down the line or passing off to the kids (or both). Having immediate access to points to travel was more important, which is why we bought direct and then added on resale.

At the time we bought we wanted to book Aulani in 3 months which dvc helped us do. That wouldn’t have happened buying resale, waiting for rofr, points to transfer etc. After that initial trip we loved it and then decided to add on A Lot more resale. Now we go for 10 days and take extended family in their own room once a year.

Yeahh I’m hoping to still be alive when Aulani expires. I like being able to book it whenever I need to but on the other hand I’m tempted to swap to more WDW points just because of the dues increasing at a faster rate but we’ll see.

 

[DanCali]

My husband and I are looking to buy an Aulani contract and I'd like some guidance. Am I right in prioritizing a subsidized dues contract? Is there a price point that you'd consider an unsubsidized contract? Ideally we'd travel in October or November biannually, so am I right in choosing and October or December use year? Any opinions are appreciated!

We own a several subsidized contracts. As others have mentioned, they are relatively hard to find and a lot of them will come stripped of points for the next 1-2 years. With that said, it can be shown that the subsidy is worth $60-$90 per point so, in theory, a buyer can pay up to that amount more for a subsidized contract relative to an identical unsubsidized contract and still some out ahead. That's all academic though because in practice the premium for the subsidized contract is lower and so, in my view, they should be favored by a buyer unless we're looking at a very cheap unsubsidized contract or a very expensive subsidized contract. A very loaded unsubsidized contract versus a very stripped subsidized contract can also potentially tilt the scales the other way.

The math is relatively simple because, as alluded to by @intamin, only two things matter - the average dues growth rate and the opportunity cost. If the dues growth rate and the opportunity cost are equal (say both 4%, or both 3%, or some other number), then they cancel each other out and the benefit of the subsidy is $2.43 x 38 years or about $92.5 per point. All else equal, higher (lower) dues growth rates increase (decrease) the value of the subsidy, and a higher (lower) opportunity cost decreases (increases) the value of the subsidy since the future savings are worth less (more). One can run a sensitivity analysis on those two variables and you'd get the following when 2024 is the first subsidy year (yellow marks what I think are the most realistic assumptions):





Keep in mind that even if you don't keep the contract to expiration, a subsidized contract should always sell for more than an identical unsubsidized one, so it's not like if you sell in 5-10 years you will necessarily lose out on the subsidized contact. But if the market tends to undervalue the subsidized contracts relative to their economic value, you probably want to be careful not to overpay too much yourself.

 

[DisneyMimiUSMC]

We own a several subsidized contracts. As others have mentioned, they are relatively hard to find and a lot of them will come stripped of points for the next 1-2 years. With that said, it can be shown that the subsidy is worth $60-$90 per point so, in theory, a buyer can pay up to that amount more for a subsidized contract relative to an identical unsubsidized contract and still some out ahead. That's all academic though because in practice the premium for the subsidized contract is lower and so, in my view, they should be favored by a buyer unless we're looking at a very cheap unsubsidized contract or a very expensive subsidized contract. A very loaded unsubsidized contract versus a very stripped subsidized contract can also potentially tilt the scales the other way.

The math is relatively simple because, as alluded to by @intamin, only two things matter - the average dues growth rate and the opportunity cost. If the dues growth rate and the opportunity cost are equal (say both 4%, or both 3%, or some other number), then they cancel each other out and the benefit of the subsidy is $2.43 x 38 years or about $92.5 per point. All else equal, higher (lower) dues growth rates increase (decrease) the value of the subsidy, and a higher (lower) opportunity cost decreases (increases) the value of the subsidy since the future savings are worth less (more). One can run a sensitivity analysis on those two variables and you'd get the following when 2024 is the first subsidy year (yellow marks what I think are the most realistic assumptions):


View attachment 818481


Keep in mind that even if you don't keep the contract to expiration, a subsidized contract should always sell for more than an identical unsubsidized one, so it's not like if you sell in 5-10 years you will necessarily lose out on the subsidized contact. But if the market tends to undervalue the subsidized contracts relative to their economic value, you probably want to be careful not to overpay too much yourself.

Thank you for such a thorough response. I appreciate it!

 

[DisneyMimiUSMC]

How many points are you trying to build up to?

800 in total. I have 440 currently.

 

[AstroBlasters]

800 in total. I have 440 currently.

360 points…. You want to travel early in your UY….I’d load up on June, August, or October UY as close to $90pp as you can get. Lots of inventory available with loaded points.

 

[Jlo85]

My math is that subsidized isn’t worth the premium. You can get unsubsidized Aulani for $90/point and subsidized for $115/point. You pay basically a 25% premium upfront for about a $25% savings on dues. The problem is the time value of money. That $25 per point you spend today is worth A LOT more than any savings on dues you’ll get 10, 20, 30 years down the line. You could instead invest that upfront savings and save more down the line. Or alternatively, you could do the prudent thing and just buy more unsubsidized points .

 

[AstroBlasters]

My math is that subsidized isn’t worth the premium. You can get unsubsidized Aulani for $90/point and subsidized for $115/point. You pay basically a 25% premium upfront for about a $25% savings on dues. The problem is the time value of money. That $25 per point you spend today is worth A LOT more than any savings on dues you’ll get 10, 20, 30 years down the line. You could instead invest that upfront savings and save more down the line. Or alternatively, you could do the prudent thing and just buy more unsubsidized points .

$115pp? I’d buy it for that… everything subsidized is listed at $137pp and they won’t negotiate.