Coronavirus and DCL Megathread - Suspension of Departures for the fleet until early November. Booking only available from early December.

[T & R]

First question for the CDC: What other legal/licensed business has to meet and negotiate with your agency in order to be open?

 

[tee11]

Here's the response from two other physicians in the area:
"Dr. Larry Wilson, chief medical officer at Midland Memorial Hospital, said there have been no studies showing a benefit in using inhaled steroids to treat COVID-19."
"Odessa Regional Medical Center’s chief medical officer also addressed budesonide (inhaled steroid) treatment in a report from KOSA-TV. Dr. Rohith Saravanan said blind, controlled studies, rather than anecdotal evidence, are needed to prove any effectiveness. If they say, ‘Oh, five cases, all solved. Magic pill. Silver bullet’ – well, that’s not how science works."

Our treatment options have definitely improved compared to March (proned oxygenation and ventilation, plasma... etc.), but it's still *symptomatic treatment*.

None of our current options will help the cruise industry.. A vaccine that confers immunity for at least one year... that would help. Here's to hope...

Hey, all successful treatments have to start somewhere! It’s at least a glimmer of hope, which I don’t think should be immediately discounted. And, it has been approved by the FDA for asthma treatment for decades.

eta: I think we will have a vaccine, and we will have more and more treatment options as well, but we need to be patient... the cruising industry is far more complicated than many other industries, including other travel based industries. It's not up to one country's laws alone.

 

[T & R]

It's unfortunate that people keep using the word vaccine with cruising. No other high risk industry has had this done to it. The more this is done, the more it gets burned into people's way of thinking that there must be a vaccine prior to the resumption of cruising. If this keeps up, people are going to make it a self fulfilling prophecy. The same rationale used to qualify cruising with a vaccine could be done to schools, air travel, hospitals, prisons, trains, busses, daycares, mining or many other businesses where people spend days at a time in close proximity. I have seen nobody on this board say that we shouldn't send our kids back to school until there is a vaccine. Nobody is equating schools with a vaccine. For some reason the people really drank the CDC cool aid about cruising and gave all the other high risk industries a pass. There is no evidence to support that banning the cruise industry has had any positive effect on Covid spread. No other industry received a CDC ban during these trying times. We currently have multiple states with 10k+ positive test cases per day, if the CDC was truly serious about preventing the spread of Covid, then there are clearly other industries that are contributing to the spread far worse than the cruising theory. The CDC cruising ban rationale no longer makes sense and is a clear abuse of power to single out a sole industry and ban it with endless options for a ban renewal. No other industry on the planet received this kind of treatment. Release the cruise ships!

 

[_auroraborealis_]

1. Many court cases have occurred that solidly establish the legality of regulating different industries by different standards based on a variety of factors.

2. Comparing cruising (a for-profit, luxury industry) to education (generally a public good, non-luxury, tax supported) is pretty silly, across the board. Gets into the "factors" mentioned above, which can include the relative necessity of an industry, relative risks, physical location, demographics served, etc.

3. Additional factors in the regulation of cruises over many other industries are the registrations of the ships, which are done expressly to avoid taxation and regulation from the US. However, if ships are docking at US ports and largely carrying US passengers from those ports, the costs of issues are borne by state and federal agencies (like the Coast Guard). They are also harder to inspect on a day to day basis. Health inspectors can show up at a restaurant on land by surprise. Less so at the buffet at sea to see if they're letting passengers touch all the stuff.

4. Significant regulation is also being done in shipping and in fishing operations. Some of the regulation is more rigorous with cruising because you're dealing with more people, and fewer shipping containers or cod.

5. A fair number of industries could use a hella more regulation right now.

6. Of course cruising isn't contributing to spread right now, because it is largely shut down in regions still ih Phase I of pandemic.

 

[DisneYE]

It's unfortunate that people keep using the word vaccine with cruising.

And its silly too.
If the cruise industry and others are waiting for a vaccine to reopen, then might as well shut down everything and let the world collapse.
Even if there's a vaccine, there will still be millions of ppl getting sick each day.
I've only had the flu vaccine once in my life about 15 years ago and I become so sick right after I almost died.
So I'm skeptical about vaccines.

People get a malaria vaccine when traveling to Africa or the amazon and many still get sick when they come back
But when they come back real sick they get treated (there is an effective treatment against malaria) and the vast majority recover

So, key word is treatment - Until there is one, I seriously doubt DCL or others will ever cruise again.
What happens if someone gets sick with CV on the ship, despite a vaccine?
If someone gets sick with the flu, they give them something to treat them and eventually there's a good chance they'll get better. Not the case now with CV.

Let's hope someone finds a treatment soon rather than, or on top of, a vaccine.

 

[DCLDVC1]

And its silly too.
If the cruise industry and others are waiting for a vaccine to reopen, then might as well shut down everything and let the world collapse.
Even if there's a vaccine, there will still be millions of ppl getting sick each day.
I've only had the flu vaccine once in my life about 15 years ago and I become so sick right after I almost died.
So I'm skeptical about vaccines.

People get a malaria vaccine when traveling to Africa or the amazon and many still get sick when they come back
But when they come back real sick they get treated (there is an effective treatment against malaria) and the vast majority recover

So, key word is treatment - Until there is one, I seriously doubt DCL or others will ever cruise again.
What happens if someone gets sick with CV on the ship, despite a vaccine?
If someone gets sick with the flu, they give them something to treat them and eventually there's a good chance they'll get better. Not the case now with CV.

Let's hope someone finds a treatment soon rather than, or on top of, a vaccine.

Bingo!

 

[ladyofthetramp]

Unfortunately I do not believe there will be a vaccine. At least one that is effective enough (more than 70%) and with enough people willing to be vaccinated, to create herd immunity and lessen the restrictions we are all under. The latest I heard, the virus has mutated, making it less deadly, but more contagious. Additionally, I have also heard that those with immunity because they have been exposed, have immunity that is not permanent, in fact it is quite short-lived. Another problem for vaccine creation. We seem to be hanging our hat on resuming our lives on a vaccine that may just not happen. We do need, however, effective treatments. We, as a country, a world, need to figure out how to live with this virus that allows us to go back to living. We can not hide or shut down forever. I do not know what the answer is, nor do I pretend to have one. I wish I had a treatment. I do agree though that cruising can not be shut down until there is a vaccine. Because that would be just too long, if ever.

 

[o&smom]

Unfortunately I do not believe there will be a vaccine. At least one that is effective enough (more than 70%) and with enough people willing to be vaccinated, to create herd immunity and lessen the restrictions we are all under. The latest I heard, the virus has mutated, making it less deadly, but more contagious. Additionally, I have also heard that those with immunity because they have been exposed, have immunity that is not permanent, in fact it is quite short-lived. Another problem for vaccine creation. We seem to be hanging our hat on resuming our lives on a vaccine that may just not happen. We do need, however, effective treatments. We, as a country, a world, need to figure out how to live with this virus that allows us to go back to living. We can not hide or shut down forever. I do not know what the answer is, nor do I pretend to have one. I wish I had a treatment. I do agree though that cruising can not be shut down until there is a vaccine. Because that would be just too long, if ever.

Totally agree. My family tested positive after the WBPC cruise, so we have felt slightly protected in the short term. The question has been for how long. I have been very interested in information about mutation of the virus, and had been happy to hear that it had been very minimal. New information shows that it has now mutated to be less deadly, but more contagious. This could be a good thing because less people could get extremely ill or die. This does not bode well for acquired immunity for the long run since eventually your body will not recognize it as the same virus and you could get reinfected. This also does not bode well for a vaccine. If scientists are already seeing that much of a change in the virus and it keeps mutating, it very well could be obsolete by the time a vaccine is created from the original virus because it will essentially be a new virus.

 

[Sleepyluke]

We don't more regulations, more government oversight, we need common sense. I 100% would rather be on a cruise ship with the ability to open the doors and literally turn over the indoor air in a matter of minutes if not seconds, instead of being on an airplane germ tube for extended periods of time.

I am not there at all in person, so can only go by the "facts' as I can find them, but in most large cities, none of the public transportation was ever shut down and no one will ever convince me they even come close to the poor versions of sanitation on a cruise ship.

The whole mask debate has turned ugly, but people seem to forget that it was NEVER designed for you not to get it. At the end of the period (whatever period the bright idea club designates) the same number of people get the virus. The spikes are getting closer to some area capacity, but as a whole, we still have lots of hospital space.

Most of the news seems to be opportunistically forgetting to report the mortality rates are falling dramatically. Yes it is still deadly, yes it is still bad for a lot of people, including people I know, but overall the death rate of the country has not changed to the extent that the media wants us to believe. Alot will never know they have it, another bunch will have symptoms that dont require much, some will need help, a few will need intensive care and recover, and a very small percent will succumb to the disease (usually not on its own, co morbidity has a huge factor).

BUT we are destroying entire industries. No cruise company can survive for 1-2 years of no operations. I have argued the entire time, yes it is a vacation for people going, but it is essential for the thousands of people in the industry. It is mortgages, food, clothing and we have now decided as a group of experts who admittedly used bad models filled with bad data to make the original assessments, and now can't or won't back track on them.

It is a moving target, but until someone (and I dont know who that someone is) decides what the end goal is, we will continue to bankrupt industries, bankrupt businesses, destroy families, and do way more harm than the continued lockdowns are causing, including the massive spike in opioid overdose deaths since this started, as an example.

 

[T & R]

Per the CLIA, the cruise industry supports over 421,000 jobs in the United States, with every 30 cruisers from U.S. ports supporting one American job. EACH DAY of the suspension of cruise operations in the U.S. results in a total loss of approximately $110 million in economic activity and up to 800 American jobs

 

[tee11]

Where to start.... There wasn't ever a vaccine against malaria in the past (there's a first implementation of one now in Africa).
Malaria is a parasite, and there are several very different types of malaria. Some are very serious, and despite available medicines, have a high rate of mortality, even under the best ICU level care. It is certain medicines that people take (for weeks) before (and after) traveling to a malaria area, I have taken them. They all have possible side effects, some have very severe side effects. Like everything in medicine it is a risk-benefit decision making process.

On that note, I'm sorry you are skeptical about vaccines. I have worked in Africa and other places, and I've seen people die of the diseases we don't see in America or Europe anymore. We are too sheltered here to imagine what it would be like completely without any vaccines. In general, you *might* get ill from live vaccines, not from "dead" vaccines. The flu vaccine is a "dead" vaccine, the Covid vaccine(s) will be "dead", too. When I say "dead" I mean it does NOT contain a live ("weakened") virus. However, one thing to keep in mind is that for any active vaccine, it usually takes 2-3 weeks to fully work ('active' meaning that your body has to do the actual work). You are not protected immediately after receiving it.

Also, we have no causative treatment against influenza, the flu. We also only have *symptomatic treatment* against the flu. However, the flu does not wreak havoc on as many different organ systems, and it does not have the unpredictable long term effects. The once a year flu vaccine is by no means perfect; but it does confer enough immunity to people that combined with our immune system's memory of past years of exposure against similar flu viruses, it is not the scourge that Covid is.

And for the record, we LOVE DCL. Most of us wouldn't be reading and posting on this forum, if we wouldn't root for DCL, and rather be cruising.

And its silly too.
If the cruise industry and others are waiting for a vaccine to reopen, then might as well shut down everything and let the world collapse.
Even if there's a vaccine, there will still be millions of ppl getting sick each day.
I've only had the flu vaccine once in my life about 15 years ago and I become so sick right after I almost died.
So I'm skeptical about vaccines.

People get a malaria vaccine when traveling to Africa or the amazon and many still get sick when they come back
But when they come back real sick they get treated (there is an effective treatment against malaria) and the vast majority recover

So, key word is treatment - Until there is one, I seriously doubt DCL or others will ever cruise again.
What happens if someone gets sick with CV on the ship, despite a vaccine?
If someone gets sick with the flu, they give them something to treat them and eventually there's a good chance they'll get better. Not the case now with CV.

Let's hope someone finds a treatment soon rather than, or on top of, a vaccine.

 

[jcbftw]

IMO we shouldn't let our love of cruising/DCL get in the way of common sense. Beyond the issue with the vaccine, the R0 for coronavirus is somewhere between 2-3 (according to ABC News); the common flu is something like 1. Regardless of fatality rate, if hospitalization is required, *that* is the major issue for cruise lines. According to the CDC, the hospitalization rate for coronavirus is almost double that of influenza.

So, if one infected person can infect 2-3 people *and* the rate of hospitalization is twice that of the common flu...you can understand why a leisure industry that does not have quick access to hospitals would be hard hit by regulations.

Additionally: yes, coronavirus is mutating. There are regional variations in the virus, which explains why some areas were hard hit at first (NYC, Italy) while places like Houston are only getting slammed now. Mutation in disease is very common; the flu vaccine you get every year is calibrated to work against the predicted most prevalent strands in that particular season. This is where we need to get with coronavirus, or get at least get a treatment that reduces hospitalization and long-term damage to the body.

 

[T & R]

IMO we shouldn't let our love of cruising/DCL get in the way of common sense. Beyond the issue with the vaccine, the R0 for coronavirus is somewhere between 2-3 (according to ABC News); the common flu is something like 1. Regardless of fatality rate, if hospitalization is required, *that* is the major issue for cruise lines. According to the CDC, the hospitalization rate for coronavirus is almost double that of influenza.

There is no way to know the Covid hospitalization rate because a large percentage of people who test positive have no symptoms. Half of the positive cases on the Diamond Princess had no symptoms and no idea they were ill. So who knows how many have already had Covid and were never tested and didn't even know they had it(those sniffles you had back in Feb/March?) The only way to know the hospitalization rate would be to know exactly how many people have had Covid and ABC News doesn't know that figure nor does any other "expert". Also, you would have to separate out the hospitalization ones with pre-existing medical conditions, they won't give out those numbers either.

Also has nothing to do with our love of cruising, it has do to with the CDC's laser focused fixation on cruising alone. If we were using common sense then we would all be able to see that it doesn't make sense that the CDC's only Covid action during this whole ordeal is just their cruise ban. I mean, really, all the resources of their agency and all of our tax money spent on them and their big contribution to the largest pandemic in their agency's history is to stop the Disney Cruises. Wow, when do we start handing out the medals to them? Way to go champs!

 

[AquaDame]

There is no way to know the Covid hospitalization rate because a large percentage of people who test positive have no symptoms. Half of the positive cases on the Diamond Princess had no symptoms and no idea they were ill. So who knows how many have already had Covid and were never tested and didn't even know they had it(those sniffles you had back in Feb/March?) The only way to know the hospitalization rate would be to know exactly how many people have had Covid and ABC News doesn't know that figure nor does any other "expert". Also, you would have to separate out the hospitalization ones with pre-existing medical conditions, they won't give out those numbers either.

Also has nothing to do with our love of cruising, it has do to with the CDC's laser focused fixation on cruising alone. If we were using common sense then we would all be able to see that it doesn't make sense that the CDC's only Covid action during this whole ordeal is just their cruise ban. I mean, really, all the resources of their agency and all of our tax money spent on them and their big contribution to the largest pandemic in their agency's history is to stop the Disney Cruises. Wow, when do we start handing out the medals to them? Way to go champs!

This is definitely getting too far into politics for this thread/forum. I've been letting it go since most of the last few comments has been pointedly about the virus and cruising but that does not extend to taxes or debating overall efficacy of a government agency. Let's tone it down a little.

 

[tinkerone]

If there is one thing I have learned in my long lifetime it's that you can not change someone's mind. Give them your thoughts once and if they don't see your light then move on because your wasting your breath. Some people just will not see that what you have to say is valid and could possibly be correct. They will stand their ground and make silly arguments to 'prove' their point is the only real correct one.
I'm seeing this in this thread. It started as a really good read with lots of good information and has turned into a bit of a fight. 'I'm right, your not'. Let's move on. Your not going to prove your point because the other side doesn't want to be wrong. Let's get back to sharing good information and leave the politics out of it because they are not going to change their minds, it's set.
JMO

 

[Starwind]

Interesting article from Bloomberg that gives some perspective on the cruise ships [in general, not Disney specific] and what they are up to and some insight into what is required to keep them operational and then bring them back into service:


The World’s Cruise Ships Can’t Sail. Now, What to Do With Them?

Hurricanes, humidity, expired permits—they’re all costly threats to empty ships.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-what-happens-to-cruise-ships-during-covid-19

 

[AquaDame]

Cleaned up this morning's political debate... another reminder this is not the forum for that.

 

[tink2020]

Interesting article from Bloomberg that gives some perspective on the cruise ships [in general, not Disney specific] and what they are up to and some insight into what is required to keep them operational and then bring them back into service:


The World’s Cruise Ships Can’t Sail. Now, What to Do With Them?

Hurricanes, humidity, expired permits—they’re all costly threats to empty ships.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-what-happens-to-cruise-ships-during-covid-19

Ugh. What stuck out to me on the passenger end is that it will take “weeks to months” to get everything running again, even once the okay is given.

 

[Starwind]

Ugh. What stuck out to me on the passenger end is that it will take “weeks to months” to get everything running again, even once the okay is given.

Yep, the issues of CDC permission and recrewing aside, just getting the ships ready from when they get "go" will take some time. And that assumes that the months of this "quarantine idle" for want of a better term hasn't created actual problems to the ship itself (mechanical or otherwise). The article was certainly illuminating in terms of many of the things that have to be taken into consideration and that can go wrong simply by the ship existing at sea...

SW

 

[FigmentSpark]

Yep, the issues of CDC permission and recrewing aside, just getting the ships ready from when they get "go" will take some time. And that assumes that the months of this "quarantine idle" for want of a better term hasn't created actual problems to the ship itself (mechanical or otherwise). The article was certainly illuminating in terms of many of the things that have to be taken into consideration and that can go wrong simply by the ship existing at sea...

SW

So... my March 2021.... do I have any hope?