Covid And The Rest of Us

[MommyinHonduras]

think it's obvious that NZ, like every other place on the planet has continued to have asymptomatic carriers and undiagnosed cases. The virus was not eradicated, simply undetected, as I believe it is and will continue to be everywhere.

Agreed that is not a question for me either, but what media and countries verbally say is what matters most in this world as present. So still looking forward to what is said and how they chose to then handle it in what is required by the population there.

Currently here on the island they are opening slowly because they are saying nothing will make them close again as this has been so devistaing, it will be what it is and we can not afford to go backwards. I don't believe it based in the past 5 months but at least they are saying their "why" for staying locked down so long and opening so slowly.

Meanwhile in the news here, 250,000 PCR test kits donated in April from Germany sat in a warehouse and are ruined......this is the stuff that is SOOOO frustrating to me.

 

[ronandannette]

Agreed that is not a question for me either, but what media and countries verbally say is what matters most in this world as present. So still looking forward to what is said and how they chose to then handle it in what is required by the population there.

Currently here on the island they are opening slowly because they are saying nothing will make them close again as this has been so devistaing, it will be what it is and we can not afford to go backwards. I don't believe it based in the past 5 months but at least they are saying their "why" for staying locked down so long and opening so slowly.

Meanwhile in the news here, 250,000 PCR test kits donated in April from Germany sat in a warehouse and are ruined......this is the stuff that is SOOOO frustrating to me.

That is kind of shocking but maybe not all that unusual? When you say Honduras is re-opening, what does that look like? What's your take on what people will do to start generating income again? Admittedly, I know next to nothing about the Honduran economy, the political climate or why it's do gosh-darn hard for a Honduran to get into Canada.

 

[penn19]

Agreed that is not a question for me either, but what media and countries verbally say is what matters most in this world as present. So still looking forward to what is said and how they chose to then handle it in what is required by the population there.

Currently here on the island they are opening slowly because they are saying nothing will make them close again as this has been so devistaing, it will be what it is and we can not afford to go backwards. I don't believe it based in the past 5 months but at least they are saying their "why" for staying locked down so long and opening so slowly.

Meanwhile in the news here, 250,000 PCR test kits donated in April from Germany sat in a warehouse and are ruined......this is the stuff that is SOOOO frustrating to me.

So a couple years ago we cruised to Roatan. Not sure if that’s where you are. I can’t imagine how their economy is right now. I know back then it was heavily dependent upon cruise ships coming in.

 

[MommyinHonduras]

That is kind of shocking but maybe not all that unusual? When you say Honduras is re-opening, what does that look like? What's your take on what people will do to start generating income again? Admittedly, I know next to nothing about the Honduran economy, the political climate or why it's do gosh-darn hard for a Honduran to get into Canada.

Unfortunately not unusual at all, it is the norm.

On Monday the 17th, commercial international flights can start landing. There have be repatriate flights the whole time but few and far between and often cancelled. They have released only a small part of what that actually means. One had to fill out on an online portal their information, a health survey and upload a covid negative test that is done within 72 hours of the flight. We are still on lock down and no information has been given about the current 14 or 21 day quarantine requirement or the fact that we are still on red alert and borders are closed to everyone but citizens and residents. We are expecting more news at some point, but nothing anyone can plan with yet. Also the airlines can not plan yet either so there are only a few flights on Spirit showing scheduled to even book at the moment from Houston.

So a couple years ago we cruised to Roatan. Not sure if that’s where you are. I can’t imagine how their economy is right now. I know back then it was heavily dependent upon cruise ships coming in.

Yes I am on Roatan but have also lived on the mainland for many years. There is no economy. It is 80-85% tourism based here on the island. Opening and people choosing to travel here again feels like life and death for many here.

 

[sam_gordon]

Click on the link and slide the graph over
View attachment 517919

The problem with using worldometers chart to come up with percentage is it's the total. So without tracking it for a couple of days on your down and doing math to find out how many tests each day vs how many positive each day, you don't see what the trend is doing.

 

[Weedy]

The problem with using worldometers chart to come up with percentage is it's the total. So without tracking it for a couple of days on your down and doing math to find out how many tests each day vs how many positive each day, you don't see what the trend is doing.

I’ll give you numbers I do know
Orlando Health is the largest hospital in Central Fl. They have multiple hospitals throughout the area.
A friend works at the hospital and they get the daily number of patients in the hospital because of the Coronavirus.
Orange Country Fl has a population of 2.3 million
The end of June numbers started going up. Quickly!!
6/11 44 patients
6/16 53
6/25 112
6/28 172
6/30 201
7/6 307
7/7 350
7/9 362
7/15 396
7/17 412
7/22 394
7/23 381
7/27 358
7/28 331
We’re now on a quick downward trend
8/5 256
8/7 217
8/11 215
8/12 181
8/13 171
Hopefully this continues

 

[bavaria]

Almost all the cases in Atlantic Canada since June have been travelers or their first-generation contacts. We do not have access to the kind of testing you do. From all I can tell though, the accuracy of that kind of testing is spotty. Is it actually relied on? From what I read online, travelers to Germany from hot spots are required to quarantine on entry but travelers from areas with low Covid infection rates are not. So am I correct that I would be able to enter Germany and not quarantine or test (unless the airline required it?)

Yes, you could have travelled to Germany already in the last two months with no quarantine, no testing. The RKI publishes a regular list of 'unsafe' countries/regions (The list is updated every few days but the link in English shows 1st July, so it outdated)
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ...ebiete_01072020_en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
The frustrating thing is that every country is making its own rules. For Iceland, for instance,
'As of July 16, 2020, passengers from Denmark, Finland, Norway and Germany are not required to go into quarantine or be tested upon arrival (or later), if they have stayed in these countries for 14 days or more before arrival in Iceland.'
https://www.icelandair.com/en-ca/support/covid-19/faq/
But things are always changing which makes planning very difficult. As we are seeing, cases are rising in (non-US/India/Brazil/Mexico) areas mostly due to younger people gathering and partying, or people just fatigued from restrictions. Yet despite rising cases, hospitalizations, ICU usage, deaths are not increasing. Those are critical measures.

Do you ever look at this site? I think it may be someone from Reddit who was posting graphs there, but now just created a website. https://covid-19-status.ca/ Germany uses current cases/100,000 to determine the 'risk' zones.

It's also frustrating that there is not one universal set of stats. RKI publishes a 7 day rolling R0, which is considered a critical factor to determine the rate of spread and future trends. But I rarely see that anywhere else.

Ultimately, I had to take a break from numbers. We were actually tracking Worldometers from the first day it appeared in Asia, and every night analyzed figures. From a mental health perspective, it just became too much to review global figures daily and try and understand what the future may hold.

 

[bavaria]

Since I don't think it was mentioned, please consider the recent Air India Express crash. It was a 'repatriation' flight from the UAE to India. At least 14 people died in the crash.

South Asians make up a large population of the low skilled, low paid workers in the UAE (especially in Dubai) They often live 6-12 people in a dorm room, and often only eat 1-2 meals/day based on what food is offered by their employer. Dubai law requires that all leftover food from the expansive restaurant and hotel buffets is turned to garbage every night ie cannot be given to the poor, or served in the restaurant or hotel canteen. Usually these workers send every spare penny home and do not spend on themselves. Many lost their jobs already back in February or March.

Well, India closed its airspace in March. That meant that travellers inside India could not get home, and Indians outside India who had lost their jobs, or wanted to get back to family, could not get home.

Just very recently the government began repatriation flights. So these workers from the UAE could finally get home to their families, after months of not making any money, trying to subsist on charity handouts. And then the plane crashed on landing....

It's just one more horrible story of what this has done to people around the world.

 

[bavaria]

I think that this is an interesting article, worth using the translate to English function: https://www.welt.de/wissenschaft/ar...Lage-in-den-Krankenhaeusern-ruhig-bleibt.html I included some snippets below, but it includes a lot of interesting figures about the illness now, vs a few months ago:

The number of new corona infections has been rising again for three weeks. It usually takes nine days from the illness of Covid-19 to the transfer to the intensive care unit. So where are the intensive care patients?

There are two explanations for this phenomenon. For the first, it is worth comparing the death statistics with the proportion of positive tests. On average, 4.2 percent of all confirmed Covid 19 patients in Germany died, that is 9,207 people (as of August 12). This number is largely driven by the values from April, when the proportion of deceased was the highest at up to seven percent. The mortality rate has been below 1.8 percent since the last week of May and even below one since mid-June.

At the same time, fewer and fewer corona tests are positive. The positive rate was highest at nine percent at the beginning of April, seven weeks later the rate slipped below 1.5 percent and since then has fluctuated between 0.6 and 1.1 (with an outlier of 1.4 in June due to the Tönnies outbreak is). In the last two weeks the rate was again comparatively “high” at 1.0.


The figures suggest that more tests are carried out and that people with mild or asymptomatic illnesses are recorded more frequently. That depresses the death rate.

 

[kimblebee]

Here in Friendly Manitoba we are having a strong second wave although we escaped very easily from our first wave so maybe this is our real first wave.


We have 218 active cases right now, for the province, and that’s higher than our first wave. We had one active case and no hospitalization when the numbers started rising. Part of it is from Hutterite colonies, some is from a cluster at a Maple Leaf plant in our second biggest city, and some is from travel.

 

[FigmentSpark]

Here in Friendly Manitoba we are having a strong second wave although we escaped very easily from our first wave so maybe this is our real first wave.


We have 218 active cases right now, for the province, and that’s higher than our first wave. We had one active case and no hospitalization when the numbers started rising. Part of it is from Hutterite colonies, some is from a cluster at a Maple Leaf plant in our second biggest city, and some is from travel.

I'm worried this IS your first wave. Almost no numbers before this (which makes me happy, because my family was safe). But I worry that people have gotten used to no cases and not worrying about it. Sure, they mostly wear masks, but my mom has said she's had to ask a few people to step back when they've come too close.

Then again, I also wonder if that crazier than anyone else winter "flu" season that Winnipeg had might not have actually been the start of Covid and no one knew it.

 

[kimblebee]

I'm worried this IS your first wave. Almost no numbers before this (which makes me happy, because my family was safe). But I worry that people have gotten used to no cases and not worrying about it. Sure, they mostly wear masks, but my mom has said she's had to ask a few people to step back when they've come too close.

Then again, I also wonder if that crazier than anyone else winter "flu" season that Winnipeg had might not have actually been the start of Covid and no one knew it.

It’s funny you mention that because I had a nasty chest cold at the end of January/most of February that I wonder wasn’t some form of COVID. My dr said I had bronchitis and a puffer eventually helped but it was a few weeks before I saw him and my lungs hurt and I had a fever and I could barely do anything without having to stop and catch my breath.

I do agree also that people have eased up on their own personal restrictions. I have stayed isolated as much as I can and I’m really debating whether or not to go to my dads birthday dinner next weekend. It’s only going to be immediate family and we’ll keep our distance, but I just don’t think the potential risk is worth it to me.

 

[ford family]

I think it's obvious that NZ, like every other place on the planet has continued to have asymptomatic carriers and undiagnosed cases. The virus was not eradicated, simply undetected, as I believe it is and will continue to be everywhere.

Not necessarily.
The new Kiwi outbreak now appears to have been a different strain to the existing virus in that country. The authorities think it came in on a commercial shipment of frozen food to the place where the first person worked. Last indications are 29 new infections, all traceable to this source.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-h...p-out-coronavirus-outbreak-idUKKCN2593AZ?il=0
Coincidentally, two places in China are reporting similar frozen food sourced infections. The WHO says it is not a problem which in itself is more concerning.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-h...ts-who-downplays-infection-risk-idUKKCN25932U
ford family

 

[ronandannette]

Not necessarily.
The new Kiwi outbreak now appears to have been a different strain to the existing virus in that country. The authorities think it came in on a commercial shipment of frozen food to the place where the first person worked. Last indications are 29 new infections, all traceable to this source.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-h...p-out-coronavirus-outbreak-idUKKCN2593AZ?il=0
Coincidentally, two places in China are reporting similar frozen food sourced infections. The WHO says it is not a problem which in itself is more concerning.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-h...ts-who-downplays-infection-risk-idUKKCN25932U
ford family

I hope much clearer information emerges on this very soon because:
a) If we’re dealing with a new strain of virus we’re basically screwed on vaccine development; and
b) There has, prior to now, been no conclusive evidence (or even serious suggestion) that this respiratory disease can be contracted by ingesting contaminated food. The second article itself does downplay the possibility but then circles us back to the idea of Covid origins at the Wuhan wet market.

 

[MommyinHonduras]

b) There has, prior to now, been no conclusive evidence (or even serious suggestion) that this respiratory disease can be contracted by ingesting contaminated food. The second article itself does downplay the possibility but then circles us back to the idea of Covid origins at the Wuhan wet market.

Is it from the box, as in it was touched and the person touched their face? Was it from eating the food in the boxes? This definitely needs more info, it feels like everyday adds more questions without previous questions even being answered, or contradicted. We know that heat. soap and UV kills these respiratory viruses and their fatty covering, so the fact that it is being linked to frozen food does say something right?

Then we get to, if this is a different strain is it leading to a lot of hospitalizations and deaths or just infections. I mean we can not stop all infections for viruses We need a risk analysis here not just lock downs are king and no further dialog and no choices by smaller groups other than cities and counties and countries.

 

[TeresaNJ]

This thread has been very interesting, and I've enjoyed reading everyone's thoughts.

 

[ronandannette]

While I support the current Canada/US border closure, there needs to be some common sense applied. This is pretty ridiculous:
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/cana...19-border-closure/ar-BB17XdPI?ocid=spartanntp

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

While I support the current Canada/US border closure, there needs to be some common sense applied. This is pretty ridiculous:
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/cana...19-border-closure/ar-BB17XdPI?ocid=spartanntp

That is def. interesting. I'm not sure on all the rules but it almost sounds like some of it is coming down to semantics--

~Crossing vs traveling non-stop (isn't that what the U.S. boats were/would be doing too?)
~Commercial vs recreational activity and type of license the boat has (aren't both boats carrying passengers on tours?)

I agree on the risk factor highlighted in the article--if no one is stopping/docking where's the risk in spread between the countries?

 

[Aladora]

While I support the current Canada/US border closure, there needs to be some common sense applied. This is pretty ridiculous:
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/cana...19-border-closure/ar-BB17XdPI?ocid=spartanntp

So here is a problem with not allowing Canadian boats/ships to pass into and out of US waters...The blue line between Swartz Bay and Tsawwassen is the ferry route between Victoria and Vancouver. That grey line with the 2 dots and 1 dash? That is the Canada/US border. Every single time a ferry goes between Victoria and Vancouver, it passes through US waters. Really, there needs to be some common sense applied.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

So here is a problem with not allowing Canadian boats/ships to pass into and out of US waters...The blue line between Swartz Bay and Tsawwassen is the ferry route between Victoria and Vancouver. That grey line with the 2 dots and 1 dash? That is the Canada/US border. Every single time a ferry goes between Victoria and Vancouver, it passes through US waters. Really, there needs to be some common sense applied.

View attachment 518364

But the issue isn't the U.S NOT allowing Canadian boats, it's the opposite that Canada is not allowing U.S. boats to cross into Canadian territory. But both being discussed in the article are tour boats, they aren't talking about ferry boats. A ferry boat as a means of connecting people from place to place would not be considered recreational (and thus non-essential). The issue being discussed is recreational but the differences with how each country is defining/handling that.

In the article: "Ontario-based tour boat companies — Gananoque Boat Line and Rockport Boat Line — take Canadian passengers on tours multiple times a day along the U.S. side of the St. Lawrence River."