How bad could availability for 1BRs at VGF get, really? Trying to decide BLT or VGF2 direct

[DonMacGregor]

500 * $207pp = $103,000. That's a big hunk of cash or some pretty hefty monthly payments if one finances. We can agree to disagree how many potential buyers there are who would consider that reasonable.

200 is too small and 500 is too large. Pick a Goldilocks number. No matter what it is, there are going to be 2,000,000 more points floating around and since there are already owners with enough points to book larger units, it is a logical assumption there will be some cadre of new owners purchasing similarly sized contracts who will opt for larger units as well.

 

[DVCsloth]

VGF 1BR is pretty open right now at 6-7 months, and that includes some Fall Frenzy in there. 14M points of SSR would work fine for that. That's with the 60M or so points in circulation. I don't see how 1.8M VGF2 points matters mathematically.

The highest demand room at VGF is the studio hands down. This addition is good for room balance for VGF and for O14 as a whole. I don't see why buying VGF for 1BR wouldn't work, except the most peak times, which always have a lot of pressure on all categories.

Right at 7 months, 6 nights available LV 1-night available SV. This is usually a pretty low demand time. I checked for 1 week 9/18-9/25

 

[Ssplashhmtn]

Of course the parents are, but most want a resort their kids will enjoy. I just don't see the GF itself being that resort. It doesn't draw nearly as many families with young kids as WL, CR or Poly.

Having stayed at all of the monorail resorts, my experience has been the opposite of this. There were at least as many if not more young children at the Grand Floridian, a reasonably short walk to Teacups, Carousel, and Cinderella’s Castle. Our little kids don’t want to stay anywhere else.

I think the renderings of the Resort Studios look beautiful, and the rooms will provide an upgraded experience for families with young children at a huge discount compared to cash rates for non-refurbished rooms in the next building over. We plan to move our stays from 1- bed villas to adjoining Resort Studios when they open.

 

[Bing Showei]

I'm not sure what sort of bizzaro world I'm walking back into here, but having spent a long time looking very closely at VGF 1BR availability, I can confidently say that those projecting doom and gloom around 1BR and 2BR availability are grossly underestimating the crippling lack of studios against an overwhelming demand for them. This disparity in turn affects other category availability in the current system.

Every single room at VGF is part of a 2BR. There are no standalone studios or 1BRs. As soon as a studio books up a 2BR comes out of circulation and is immediately made unavailable.

VGF, uniquely, is one of maybe two resorts in the entire system where 1BRs are in greater demand than 2BRs. Booking patterns follow the distinct pattern of demand as:

studios>1BR>2BR

This is a departure from most other Disney timeshare buildings where the pattern is mostly:

studios>2BR>1BR

This is largely by virtue of 1BRs being a completely ****ty value proposition, and if I didn't know, I would've guessed the V in DVC stood for Value-obsessed; with Damn and Cheapskates rounding out the trio. Owners love their cheap rooms.

One week in October in a ST: 158pts
One week in October in a 1BR: 317pts
One week in October in a 2BR: 443pts

My sense as to how booking at VGF goes is that people go for the cheap rooms first. When those are gone, they go for the next cheapest thing that keeps them at the resort, namely 1BRs. Those who REALLY want 2BRs will book those at the same time as the studio booking folks. The only time you may not get a 2BR when you want it is when the damn near most value-obsessed, cheapskate weeks of the Disney timeshare system rolls around: the first two weeks of December.

Whatever facebook observations are being made, those remain under the current booking system where there is a dearth of studios against an insatiable desire to stretch points. No one can say with certainty yet how the new studios will affect that, but if history suggests anything, it's that cheap will win out every time for a rabid Disney fan who loves the mouse so much as to commit 50 years of it; that they will choose two days of spinning tea cups and fake castles in a studio over one in a 1BR.

There's an old saying in VGF... well I know it's in SSR... probably at VGF... that says you can take the owner out of the cheap... but you can't... you can't take the cheap out... of the... you can't change a cheapskate owner.

 

[RoseGold]

VGF, uniquely, is one of maybe two resorts in the entire system where 1BRs are in greater demand than 2BRs. Booking patterns follow the distinct pattern of demand as:

studios>1BR>2BR

This is a departure from most other Disney timeshare buildings where the pattern is mostly:

studios>2BR>1BR

Well sort of, you left off the 2BR lockoffs, which are also instantly gone. Taking pressure off the studios with new, shiny studios, might actually make 2BRs easier to get. VGF GV is also a surprisingly high demand room. Plenty of people who are VGF 3BR or bust, I guess.

 

[Brian Noble]

VGF, uniquely, is one of maybe two resorts in the entire system where 1BRs are in greater demand than 2BRs. Booking patterns follow the distinct pattern of demand as:

studios>1BR>2BR

Interesting. I was only going by the availability charts that others track elsewhere, but I was under the impression it was S>2BR>1BR, but with a narrower gap between 2BR and 1BR than most other resorts. Looking at the charts more closely, I'm thinking I got it wrong and they might be flipped.

 

[Mumof4mice]

I'm excited about the addition of VGF2.

I don't see VGF2 buyers with smaller contracts consistently competing for the larger rooms. They would be more likely to switch to a lower point chart resort when they need 1 and 2BRs (as Poly owners do), than drastically shortening their stay to book the larger VGF rooms.

If competition for 2BRs does increase, from new owners buying larger contracts, the slight inconvenience is still offset by the ability to secure studio more easily when we invite friends/family. We also own PVB points. The ease of booking PVB rooms is a real luxury.