How long before DVC and all of WDW is shut again.

[MTO1971]

I live here and I don't believe you will see anything happen. They decided today that all schools must open, 5 days per week in August (they usually start the second week of August).

I don't see them shutting down anything any time soon. The governor thinks everything is fine.

It IS fine... just take some precautions and you could be one of the 99.8% who survive this and the flu every year.

 

[Ms.Minnie]

I still think a lot of the spike we are seeing is due to the protests and riots we have been seeing since the end of May. We are right in the timeline were we would be seeing those spikes from that source. Also the photos I have seen of 20 somethings at the local bars is another area of concern and probably a cause of the spikes across the country.

I know the cases are spiking but so far the mortality rate has been low, I'm hoping it stays that way. Maybe what we are seeing is the beginning of herd immunity?

 

[MTO1971]

I still think a lot of the spike we are seeing is due to the protests and riots we have been seeing since the end of May. We are right in the timeline were we would be seeing those spikes from that source. Also the photos I have seen of 20 somethings at the local bars is another area of concern and probably a cause of the spikes across the country.

I know the cases are spiking but so far the mortality rate has been low, I'm hoping it stays that way. Maybe what we are seeing is the beginning of herd immunity?

I agree and we certainly need to take care of the more vulnerable in our population. I am wishing for some herd immunity pixie dust by the 50th anniversary next year.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I don't want to stray too far from DIS, but always remember that morbidity and mortality are quite different.

 

[Chuck S]

I think Disney, if they stick strictly to their protocols, will be pretty safe overall. The problems will be caused by some guests refusing to comply with mask requirements and distancing.

People crowding to the rivers for tubing and bars has caused a lot of our problems here in Texas. The restaurants I've been to in the last few weeks have been very strict about sanitizing and distancing, as well as having employees wearing masks.

 

[siren0119]

I don't want to stray too far from DIS, but always remember that morbidity and mortality are quite different.

Yup. Those who are eventually discharged from the hospital or who "recover" don't get counted in the mortality rate, however it is becoming quite evident that the "recovery" from this virus is long, and there are indicators that it comes with some long term/possibly permanent damage. That to me is just as important when estimating the severity of this virus compared to the seasonal flu.

 

[Lorana]

Yup. Those who are eventually discharged from the hospital or who "recover" don't get counted in the mortality rate, however it is becoming quite evident that the "recovery" from this virus is long, and there are indicators that it comes with some long term/possibly permanent damage. That to me is just as important when estimating the severity of this virus compared to the seasonal flu.

This. There is growing evidence that Covid-19 has lingering long term effects. Also, herd immunity is not guaranteed and it requires a level of exposure that we aren't yet near, and to get to that level, we'd overwhelm our medical facilities and you'd see deaths spiking again. (I encourage you to look at what happened in Sweden, who tried the herd immunity approach). One of the reasons that fatality rates aren't yet spiking is earlier efforts helped flatten the curve to under the capacity of our hospitals and we've gained better understanding of how to treat patients. Also, look at the % of positive cases - yes, we are testing more, but the % of positive cases is on the rise, which indicates that it's not more testing that is the result of the increase; the virus is spreading. A recent article indicated that the strain of covid-19 in Texas is mututating into a more contagious variant.

I, for one, desperately want to visit Disney again, but will not until it is reasonably safe. The rise of numbers in Florida strongly indicate that travel to FL is not safe, as the state in general is not taking the right precautions to ensure safety. Disney may be trying, mind you, but to get to Disney, there is a lot of potential interaction with areas of high risk of exposure.

 

[dragonflymom]

Herd immunity is looking less and less likely...recent study published in medical journal The Lancet a couple of days ago shows that of those infected, very few maintained their antibodies and some lost antibodies entirely after a few weeks. From what I've read, best hope is still a vaccine, but it is also not without issues--mostly how to get millions if not billions of doses delivered quickly and safely to everyone in a cost-effective manner all the while hoping the virus does not mutate to a degree that the vaccine would miss its target.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-antibodies-study-herd-immunity-unachievable-spain-2020-7

 

[AvidDisReader]

Disney will not close. A vast majority of new cases are young. The death rate in Florida is one of the lowest in the country. It is not the number of cases to watch, it is the number of cases in ICU that is important. The real problem in Florida is they have allowed elective surgeries and the great number of catch up elective surgeries are taking up a great number of ICU beds. So if the Covid cases get worse those ICU beds are not available. How many people realize that every time you go to a Hospital for treatment of anything, they test you for Covid. People are testing positive that have no systems.

 

[sethschroeder]

You are not closing back down unless you are closing for another 6+ months.

No one is signing up for that.

People just need to be careful, wear masks, and all companies need to have proper protocols.

See about a zero chance of closing unless somehow the mortity rate (not number of deaths) starts to spike across all age groups.

 

[GusGus77]

No, I will be OK. But how so very nice of you to ask. I am so impressed. Thank you. You are a shining example of what this country needs right now.

Glad you are ok- SL6827. But don’t be afraid to reach out if you need to!

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

Herd immunity is looking less and less likely...recent study published in medical journal The Lancet a couple of days ago shows that of those infected, very few maintained their antibodies and some lost antibodies entirely after a few weeks. From what I've read, best hope is still a vaccine, but it is also not without issues--mostly how to get millions if not billions of doses delivered quickly and safely to everyone in a cost-effective manner all the while hoping the virus does not mutate to a degree that the vaccine would miss its target.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-antibodies-study-herd-immunity-unachievable-spain-2020-7

There are scientists who dispute this. Apparently the antibody tests referred to in the article you posted do not look for T-cell immunity which appears to be much more prevalent. It is mind blowing to me how this article from a reputable publication does not mention this topic, even in an attempt to dispute it. This T-cell discussion has been around for awhile too. Here is an article about it.
https://reason.com/2020/07/01/covid...han-antibody-tests-suggest-say-2-new-studies/

 

[CLE2WDW]

My prediction: never again. Disney and countless other businesses are learning how difficult it is to reopen after a lengthy closure. You can’t close an entire economy for really any reason... the long term financial harm is far too dire.

 

[TiggerBouncy]

Herd immunity is looking less and less likely...recent study published in medical journal The Lancet a couple of days ago shows that of those infected, very few maintained their antibodies and some lost antibodies entirely after a few weeks. From what I've read, best hope is still a vaccine, but it is also not without issues--mostly how to get millions if not billions of doses delivered quickly and safely to everyone in a cost-effective manner all the while hoping the virus does not mutate to a degree that the vaccine would miss its target.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-antibodies-study-herd-immunity-unachievable-spain-2020-7

They are concerned about how viable a vaccine is too now. It may require boosters quite often (yearly like the Flu shot? More? Unknown at this point). But it looks increasingly like a measles-type vaccine is unlikely.

 

[moericus]

We'll be fine in either November or January depending on other things.

 

[CLE2WDW]

We'll be fine in either November or January depending on other things.

Hey hey now there’s no room for a logical post in these boards!
That being said it’s such a shame how little the media reports on therapeutics and antibody producing therapeutic cocktails. We are at most 2-3 months away from the mass production/availability of these products. That’s a game changer. My prediction is that by Thanksgiving most of this will be behind us and only international travel bans (especially from China) will remain for most of 2021.

 

[pmaurer74]

I don't think they will shut down again.

 

[MonkeyKnifeFight]

Hey hey now there’s no room for a logical post in these boards!
That being said it’s such a shame how little the media reports on therapeutics and antibody producing therapeutic cocktails. We are at most 2-3 months away from the mass production/availability of these products. That’s a game changer. My prediction is that by Thanksgiving most of this will be behind us and only international travel bans (especially from China) will remain for most of 2021.

Really the recent increase in positive tests in the south could turn out to be a blessing in disguise. Either they will follow a pattern of NYC with disastrous amount of deaths and then with everyone getting exposed and it will go away. I don't expect this to happen.

Or they won't and only have a small upticks in death at a fraction of the level of infections. This could be because treatments are better, they've shielded nursing homes, or the virus has mutated, or the people testing positive now are low risk and just about anyone can get a test. Any of these or all of them could contribute to this result. This is what I'm expecting to happen.

Either way it ends faster now, because without a vaccine people are going to eventually get it and staying shutdown until a vaccine would cause more deaths and destruction than the virus. We are far beyond any chance of eradication until herd immunity of some flavor comes along.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Remember: Mortality and morbidity are different.

 

[kboo]

elective surgeries and the great number of catch up elective surgeries are taking up a great number of ICU beds.

Most elective surgeries don't take up ICU beds.

Either they will follow a pattern of NYC with disastrous amount of deaths and then with everyone getting exposed and it will go away.

Far from "everyone" got exposed. I know countless friends who got exposed and very sick, who are counted in the total counts for NYC, but - 222,000 confirmed cases out of a population of 8M - is still only about 3% infected. And now about 1.1% of tests are coming back positive. It's not like you can get exposed once and then you're never going to get exposed again. 97% of the population didn't get infected or sick, and we'd still like to keep it that way.

Getting back on topic: I also don't think WDW will close again, unless they can't keep their guests and CMs safe. This would require operating at low enough volumes that surfaces can be cleaned, and that everyone *can* maintain social distance and follow their rules. But I think at this point, they're going to let the guests self-select whether to go or not. Decision is made for me because of the quarantines going in both directions; in some ways it makes it easier for me, because then I don't have to rationalize going or not going. Am I sad about it? Yes. I hope the CMs are able to work and feel safe at work.