Lock-off Premium: BWV vs DRR

[CarolMN]

It sure looks to me like the increase to the lock off premiums will be back with a vengeance when the L14 2021 charts are released. Lock at how much more the premium is for the Riviera than it is for the BWV:

Weekly Lock-off Premiums** BWV vs DRR

Adventure Season
Std - 4.55% vs 13.51%
Preferred - 14.87% vs 15.79%

Choice Season
Std - 5.63% vs 15.87%
Preferred - 13.07% vs 19.21%

Dream Season
Std - 10.71% vs 13.04%
Preferred - 21.41% vs 20.23%

Magic Season
Std - 8.97% vs 17.32%
Preferred - 15.14% vs 14.37%

Premier Season
Std - 7.55% vs 13.43%
Preferred - 14.26% vs 18.08%

** % Increase in points needed to book a studio and 1 bedroom separately (rather than as a 2 bedroom)

 

[crvetter]

It sure looks to me like the increase to the lock off premiums will be back with a vengeance when the L14 2021 charts are released. Lock at how much more the premium is for the Riviera than it is for the BWV (though view wise very similar I agree here):

Weekly Lock-off Premiums** BWV vs DRR

Adventure Season
Std - 4.55% vs 13.51%
Preferred - 14.87% vs 15.79%

Choice Season
Std - 5.63% vs 15.87%
Preferred - 13.07% vs 19.21%

Dream Season
Std - 10.71% vs 13.04%
Preferred - 21.41% vs 20.23%

Magic Season
Std - 8.97% vs 17.32%
Preferred - 15.14% vs 14.37%

Premier Season
Std - 7.55% vs 13.43%
Preferred - 14.26% vs 18.08%

** % Increase in points needed to book a studio and 1 bedroom separately (rather than as a 2 bedroom)

I think this is interesting, but would it not be more fair to compare against BLT Lake and TP view since that is where DVC is putting the points (very similar weekly costs for all room types)? The 2042 IG resorts are significantly underpriced all around. Perhaps DVC will move BWV that route but DRR isn't that much out of line from BLT, sometimes higher, sometimes lower, but more often similar. Also comparing standard at BWV with standard at DRR isn't nearly apple to apples because one is a very small category, BWV, while the other, DRR, is likely to be a much greater percentage of the resort when compared to BWV.

Weekly Lock-off Premiums** BLT vs DRR

Adventure Season
Std - 18.24% vs 13.51%
Preferred - 12.5% vs 15.79%

Choice Season
Std - 17.14% vs 15.87%
Preferred - 13.17% vs 19.21%

Dream Season
Std - 16.85% vs 13.04%
Preferred - 19.77% vs 20.23%

Magic Season
Std - 17.62% vs 17.32%
Preferred - 15.68% vs 14.37%

Premier Season
Std - 12.55% vs 13.43%
Preferred - 12.78% vs 18.08%

With this in mind I find it interesting that DVC if they intend to create a spread on the Lockoff premiums didn't do so a bit more with the point charts at Riviera. Considering the 2021 charts will be out after only 8 months of sales so any big movements that DVC intends on doing will upset a majority of potential direct buyers at Riviera or those that already bought. Also since DRR has dedicated Studios, 1 Bedrooms, and 2 Bedrooms the movement of the Lockoff premium is somewhat limited on the part of DVC unlike for BLT, VGF, etc.

What I think is really interesting is when comparing seasons they made Adventure, Choice, and Dream cheaper at DRR vs BLT for the Deluxe Studios, though only a small amount 10-15 points a week, but that translates to 10% about.

 

[CarolMN]

Fair points.

But BLT has no dedicated studios or dedicated 1 bedrooms (per DVC Resource Center), so premiums at BLT have no "natural limiting" factor holding increases down. OTOH, DRR has dedicated 2 bedrooms and dedicated studios and dedicated 1-bedrooms, all of which would tend to limit a premium increase. BWV seems to be in between the two as far as "limiting factors" go.

BWV - 97 Dedicated Studios - 130 Dedicated 1Bdrm - 0 Dedicated 2Bdrm - 149 Lockoffs - 7 Grand Villas = 383 Villas / 532 Max. Available

BLT - 0 Dedicated Studios - 0 Dedicated 1BR villas - 148 Dedicated 2BR villas - 133 Lockoffs - 14 Grand Villas = 295 Villas / 428 Max. Available

Not sure if this is official for DRR or just an estimate (from post by skier_pete)
24 Tower Suites
38 Dedicated Studios (up to 186 with Lock-offs)
29 Dedicated 1-BR (Up to 177 with Lock-offs)
148 2-BR Lock-offs
90 Dedicated 2-BR
12 Grand Villas

There probably isn't a true apples-to-apples comparison. That said, I still think the difference in the lock off premium percentages between the BWV and DRR is telling (as a further prediction that the premiums will be increased for the future charts L14 resorts).

 

[crvetter]

Fair points.

But BLT has no dedicated studios or dedicated 1 bedrooms (per DVC Resource Center), so premiums at BLT have no "natural limiting" factor holding increases down. OTOH, DRR has dedicated 2 bedrooms and dedicated studios and dedicated 1-bedrooms, all of which would tend to limit a premium increase. BWV seems to be in between the two as far as "limiting factors" go.

BWV - 97 Dedicated Studios - 130 Dedicated 1Bdrm - 0 Dedicated 2Bdrm - 149 Lockoffs - 7 Grand Villas = 383 Villas / 532 Max. Available

BLT - 0 Dedicated Studios - 0 Dedicated 1BR villas - 148 Dedicated 2BR villas - 133 Lockoffs - 14 Grand Villas = 295 Villas / 428 Max. Available

Not sure if this is official for DRR or just an estimate (from post by skier_pete)
24 Tower Suites
38 Dedicated Studios (up to 186 with Lock-offs)
29 Dedicated 1-BR (Up to 177 with Lock-offs)
148 2-BR Lock-offs
90 Dedicated 2-BR
12 Grand Villas

There probably isn't a true apples-to-apples comparison. That said, I still think the difference in the lock off premium percentages between the BWV and DRR is telling (as a further prediction that the premiums will be increased for the future charts L14 resorts).

That is true but I don't think the lockoff premium differences between BWV and DRR is telling, because the resorts are wildly different in composition, room size, and features. But the bigger point is BWV and DRR can never have parity point charts because simply all rooms were made more expensive (more points declared for the resort), which is my main reason to think this doesn't show much for the expectation of where BWV will move to. This was my reason to comparing the resort to BLT which is the parity resort both in the room configuration breakdown (aside from the few dedicated studios and 1 bedrooms), total point counts (when adjusted for DRR being slightly larger), similar maximum reallocation numbers, and now very on parity point charts.

My main point to show was that they set the resort up similar to BLT with size, so I would expect it to be reasonable to compare with BLT, which is what I thinking. That showed similar lockoff premiums which surprised me because if they intend on doing this I would have thought they lower the cost of 2 bedrooms at DRR and increase the studio and 1 bedrooms with the 2020 point chart. But then again that would be showing their hand, which I don't expect them to do. So who knows they may increase the lockoff premium again (only an issue at resorts without dedicated studios and 1 bedrooms) or simply increase studios and decrease 1 beds instead, which seems to be the right move.

Also those numbers are correct and are same as reported by drusba (about 1-2 months ago ), which I believe were from the state regulatory fillings.