Magic Key Passes

[StormyCA]

The problem with letting them expire with no renewals is that they will lose a ton of money. They need APs.

IDK. APs say they do, non-APs say it ain't necessarily so. All I know is that Disney has never (to my knowledge) released any financial data to either definitively prove or disprove either argument. Bits and pieces are out there, but not real hard data for a long enough period of time to say "Yes, this is the definitive answer".

At any rate, I have a feeling that TPTB have multiple iterations of potential AP programs based on different scenarios/decisions ready to go at the drop of a hat judgement, IF that's what they're waiting for. I just can't think of any other reason why they're waiting. They already HAVE all the data telling them what makes financial and PR sense, why bother to wait unless there's 'some other reason'?

 

[DLgal]

Is it? When was it certified by the judge as a class action? Last I heard the judge allowed the suit by the individual plaintiff to proceed, but I didn't hear he'd classified it as a class action.

I've googled and can't find anything. If you have a source I'd like to read about it.

It hasn't yet been certified as a class action, but that is still the goal of the plaintiff's lawyers. The suit has been filed "on behalf of all magic key holders." This is likely why Disney stopped selling the magic keys.

 

[StormyCA]

It is actually classified as a class action lawsuit.

It hasn't yet been certified as a class action, but that is still the goal of the plaintiff's lawyers. The suit has been filed "on behalf of all magic key holders." This is likely why Disney stopped selling the magic keys.

So at this point in time it is NOT a class action then. Not saying it won't be, but with so many MKeys on this forum, we want to be accurate, right?

 

[DLgal]

IDK. APs say they do, non-APs say it ain't necessarily so. All I know is that Disney has never (to my knowledge) released any financial data to either definitively prove or disprove either argument. Bits and pieces are out there, but not real hard data for a long enough period of time to say "Yes, this is the definitive answer".

At any rate, I have a feeling that TPTB have multiple iterations of potential AP programs based on different scenarios/decisions ready to go at the drop of a hat judgement, IF that's what they're waiting for. I just can't think of any other reason why they're waiting. They already HAVE all the data telling them what makes financial and PR sense, why bother to wait unless there's 'some other reason'?

I still believe it's a psychological game. They want MK holders whose passes are expiring soon to start panicking. Then, ANYTHING they offer will be gobbled right up.

 

[DLgal]

So at this point in time it is NOT a class action then.

It's neither a class action nor a single plaintiff. It has not been certified either way, but is most likely to end up as class action. A $5M lawsuit on behalf of one angry passholder makes no sense.

 

[StormyCA]

I still believe it's a psychological game. They want MK holders whose passes are expiring soon to start panicking. Then, ANYTHING they offer will be gobbled right up.

A tried and true business tactic. Create a 'shortage' to drive up prices and create demand.

It's neither a class action nor a single plaintiff. It has not been certified either way, but is most likely to end up as class action. A $5M lawsuit on behalf of one angry passholder makes no sense.

It's either one or the other at this point. It may seem to 'make no sense' but until the judge certifies, it IS on behalf of one plaintiff. A lot of individuals file multi-million dollar lawsuits for events that affect more than just themselves. Some end up in class actions, some don't.

I'm currently waiting on a decision by a judge on a consumer product lawsuit that may or may not end up a class action. It's been explained by the lawyers that there are stringent requirements on certifying a class action. A number of us have been told to 'sit tight and wait' as it's more than just 'there are a lot of people this affects'.

I'm certain that Disney wants to settle this before it gets a chance to become a class action. And it may be that the plaintiff wants the same thing, too.

 

[Snap Crackle Pop]

I definitely think they may announce something on the day that the first APs expire which could be crappy for those who need to make a pretty quick decision. I'm still 5 weeks out until my pass expires so I still have a little time.

 

[elenex]

I'm firmly of the opinion Disney does not like annual passes. They know day ticket visitors spend way more at the parks than AP holders do. One night at GCH costs about the same as 1 AP. Have you walked in that place? It's packed out.

APs are probably chump change, but those pennies fill the gaps and provide a steady stream of visitors to the park.

I wouldn't be surprised if the thought, no matter how fleeting, has come up to jacking up day tickets to cover the cost of APs and see how it plays out. Obviously, this scenario will never happen but it is an interesting concept. I bet a lot of people would lay down extra coin for an improved experience.

In the end APs are probably necessary and will always be around. Just like this current situation. I'm still confident MKs will come back and I wouldn't be surprised if there are no changes other than blackout dates and some more air tight language regarding reservations.

Well I'm from NorCal, and I stay at the Grand every time we come down, and buy genie+, and eat at their restaurants, buy their merchandise, all the stuff they want us to do.

We've done that 3 times for 4-6 days at a time on these magic keys with 2 more trips booked before they expire. That number 5 will drop to maybe 2 times a year if they cut APs. We save on the hotel as most of our stays have been on dvc points, but to add an additional $400-500pp per trip for tickets and to then also be limited to a 5-day ticket is my breaking point. So yes, they do need APs.

What they easily can, and probably will do is increase the prices, and increase the buy-in by eliminating the cheapest socal-only pass as well as the monthly payment option. The demographic they don't like is the local, more budget-conscious crowd. Which is absolutely awful, because they are the reason DLR and frankly, WDW and all the other parks exist.

 

[dieumeye]

I'm firmly of the opinion Disney does not like annual passes.

…but not real hard data for a long enough period of time to say "Yes, this is the definitive answer".

Well, they’ve been selling an annual pass to Disneyland since the 1980s. I’d say that’s fairly good proof that they are OK with selling annual passes.

 

[StormyCA]

Well, they’ve been selling an annual pass to Disneyland since the 1980s. I’d say that’s fairly good proof that they are OK with selling annual passes.

Just being 'OK' with something up to now doesn't necessarily mean that it still makes the best business sense going forward. DL in the '80s is nothing like DL today. Maybe they'll offer APs similar to the 'old programs' or maybe they'll take this chance to either do away altogether (doubtful) or drastically limit/change terms to better suit 'today's DL' and ALL the people who visit, not just APs and not just 'ticket guests'.

Whatever Disney does, rest assured it that it will be in their best interests, regardless of whether or not it makes the rest of us happy.

 

[Aurora0427]

Well I'm from NorCal, and I stay at the Grand every time we come down, and buy genie+, and eat at their restaurants, buy their merchandise, all the stuff they want us to do.

We've done that 3 times for 4-6 days at a time on these magic keys with 2 more trips booked before they expire. That number 5 will drop to maybe 2 times a year if they cut APs. We save on the hotel as most of our stays have been on dvc points, but to add an additional $400-500pp per trip for tickets and to then also be limited to a 5-day ticket is my breaking point. So yes, they do need APs.

What they easily can, and probably will do is increase the prices, and increase the buy-in by eliminating the cheapest socal-only pass as well as the monthly payment option. The demographic they don't like is the local, more budget-conscious crowd. Which is absolutely awful, because they are the reason DLR and frankly, WDW and all the other parks exist.

Same. We are in Orange County and we have annual passes, do staycations on-site, and every time we go we buy 3 meals a day, multiple snacks, parking, and even souvenirs. What we spend at Disneyland annually is probably a trip to The Maldives. If they do away with APs, we’ll maybe go once in the summer, once at the Holidays, once in the spring, and we’ll really enjoy our platinum passes at Universal and give them our money.

This whole idea that AP holders don’t spend money is silly…. You aren’t going to replace even half of the AP holders with out of towners on a daily basis.

 

[Aurora0427]

I still believe it's a psychological game. They want MK holders whose passes are expiring soon to start panicking. Then, ANYTHING they offer will be gobbled right up.

Probably.

Also, if they’re so worried about the lawsuit, couldn’t they scratch the Magic Key program and revamp the entire system and come out with something new?

 

[DLgal]

Probably.

Also, if they’re so worried about the lawsuit, couldn’t they scratch the Magic Key program and revamp the entire system and come out with something new?

They could. But it's probably not necessary.

 

[brightlined]

I'm still of the mind that they're just waiting for the Enchant and/or Imagine Keys to no longer be blocked out. Enchant comes back next Monday, Imagine the week after.

It's not like Disney's known for announcing things way in advance. For example, if they announced and/or got something going on August 22nd (in line with the passes expiring on the 25th) - that would pretty much follow the norm.

(Having said that, predicting Disney moves feels like the worst game in Vegas.)

 

[DLgal]

I'm still of the mind that they're just waiting for the Enchant and/or Imagine Keys to no longer be blocked out. Enchant comes back next Monday, Imagine the week after.

It's not like Disney's known for announcing things way in advance. For example, if they announced and/or got something going on August 22nd (in line with the passes expiring on the 25th) - that would pretty much follow the norm.

(Having said that, predicting Disney moves feels like the worst game in Vegas.)

What do blackout days have to do with passes that can't even be renewed until Aug 25 at the earliest? Unless you also think they will start selling these passes again too?

 

[brightlined]

What do blackout days have to do with passes that can't even be renewed until Aug 25 at the earliest? Unless you also think they will start selling these passes again too?

My belief (when it happened) was that they paused Imagine and Enchant to stop people from evading the blockouts on those passes by upgrading from tickets. They wanted all of the ticket revenue they could get. (I still don't think the lawsuit had anything to do with it.)

Assuming they don't want to kill the MK program for something else or significantly change it, I do think they'll still want to sell those passes. If that's the case, and I'm right about blockout evasion, there's no reason to announce anything (including renewals) until those passes are clear of the blockouts. It becomes simple - they can just turn them back on, and the messaging is easy.

For me, the lack of renewals to this point suggests to me that there's either a technical reason they can't process them while they're off-sale, or they're changing/killing the program.


At this point, I feel like everything they've done suggests the latter. For example, they've removed almost everything about renewing from the T&Cs - what's left is just the stock explanation of a renewal. If they're not allowing renewals - ie, if there's a new system instead - then there's no reason to explain how renewals will work ahead of the announcement of the new system. (And there would be no reason to rush the announcement of that system.)

But the change in the renewal text could just mean, for example, that they won't let people renew one of the existing passes (read: Dream Key).

Honestly, I have no idea. I can think of a dozen plausible possibilities of what's going on.

I might just be gently frustrated by the constant speculation - it's been weeks of "I think it'll be this Friday / next Monday / Sunday week", and I haven't seen anything that tells me they won't wait as long they can. (Even the few blog posts of "they're close to figuring it out!" could be entirely unsourced and based solely on the fact that we're 17 days from the 25th - those are good odds that they're close to figuring it out.)


(If we're lucky, my saying this means they'll announce something tomorrow.)

 

[MonocularVision]

This whole idea that AP holders don’t spend money is silly…. You aren’t going to replace even half of the AP holders with out of towners on a daily basis.

I think most folks are guessing the average ticket holder spends more than the average AP holder.

We’ve had AP’s in the past and live in Phoenix. When we visited, I would guess we fit the profile of the standard ticket holder as well. From folks outside of the local area, many AP holders probably look a lot like normal tourists.

But many locals that hold APs probably spend less than tourists on average. At least I would guess that to be true. As mentioned, Disney doesn’t release those numbers so we really can’t know but I don’t think the theory is way out there.

We have local AP holders in this forum that plan extensive onsite stays at the GCH and spend a ton each time they go. We also have local AP holders on this forum who only get a free cup of hot water for their tea. I am not sure if folks who come here are representative.

Anyway, all this to say is that the argument isn’t that zero AP holders spend a lot, but more about the averages. And even then we don’t really know.

 

[bwvBound]

Hi. Just letting everyone know I moved this to the Community Board.

May I ask why this is moved to the Community Board? This thread is directly related to Disneyland ... whereas the description of the Community Board is, "A place for those who love Disneyland to talk about everything else under the golden sun." (Seems, in my read, that the thread fits the Disneyland forum and not Community??) Thank you for considering the request.

 

[DontSpamMe]

Well I'm from NorCal, and I stay at the Grand every time we come down, and buy genie+, and eat at their restaurants, buy their merchandise, all the stuff they want us to do.

We've done that 3 times for 4-6 days at a time on these magic keys with 2 more trips booked before they expire. That number 5 will drop to maybe 2 times a year if they cut APs. We save on the hotel as most of our stays have been on dvc points, but to add an additional $400-500pp per trip for tickets and to then also be limited to a 5-day ticket is my breaking point. So yes, they do need APs.

What they easily can, and probably will do is increase the prices, and increase the buy-in by eliminating the cheapest socal-only pass as well as the monthly payment option. The demographic they don't like is the local, more budget-conscious crowd. Which is absolutely awful, because they are the reason DLR and frankly, WDW and all the other parks exist.

On that note I'd bet good money the top 10-15% of MK holders spend more than the bottom 85-90% combined.

 

[DLgal]

On that note I'd bet good money the top 10-15% of MK holders spend more than the bottom 85-90% combined.

That is probably true of day ticket guests as well.