The math on this is so perplexing because it feels like it is ever-changing. Appreciate the work you put into this for us.
That said... a 2:24 looks much more achievable than a 2:22 for the next level of corral. That's only an additional 9 mins I have to shave off - so no pressure.
Thank you so much for doing this! That is a very detailed response and is very helpful.
I believe this is how it goes:
-25,000+ runners sign up for marathon, goofy, or dopey. All of these entires are pooled together.
-Everyone is ranked by estimated finish time: 4 hrs or less, 4:10, 4:20, 4:30, 4:40, 4:50, 5:00, 5:10, 5:20 (these all require POT), then 5:30, 5:40, 5:50, etc. This is submitted at registration and can be changed up to Oct 3rd POT deadline
-Everyone with an estimated finish time of less than 5:30 has their POT standardized. Whether it is a 10 miler or HM, it is converted to a marathon estimate using McMillan. Since most people's race times are not linear based on the mcmillan race equivalency calculator, this is why running a 10 miler is usually the most advantageous.
-Once all POT have been standardized to marathon estimates, then within each estimated finish time block the runners POT are ranked from best to worst.
-At this point or sometime around this, runDisney may choose to use the link provided at registration to verify the authenticity of your POT. If verified, then nothing happens. If invalidated, then they may move you into the last corral.
-Now everyone is first sorted by estimated finish and then within finish is sorted by submitted POT. Now runDisney uses the predetermined cutoffs (A=500, B=1000, C=1000, F=2500, etc again made up) to seed the runners into these corrals. Hence, runner ranked #500 will be in corral A and runner #501 will be in corral B. Now whatever POT that separated runner #500 and 501 is then determined to be the "cutoff" for corral A. So if #500 was 3:20:04 and #501 was 3:20:05, then runDisney prints 3:20 as the cutoff for corral A.
-All runners without a POT and an estimated finish time less than 5:20 are now also seeded into corrals. But purely based on estimated finish time. Thus, this is why there is a glut of 5:30 marathoners. There isn't really that many people who can run a 5:30. Even someone who will run a 7:00 could put a 5:30 and be seeded in a faster corral. The corralling is meant to keep people of similar pacing together on the race course (or at least in the beginning, because well characters and rides to be ridden and all).
Now once the marathon is seeded, they go back and figure out the half marathon. They keep all of the goofy and dopey in their assigned marathon corrals. Then they backfill all the corrals with half marathoners. Then based on wherever the half marathoners fall as #500 and #501 is determined to be the cutoff for corral A of the HM.
One explanation for beating a corral cutoff and yet being placed behind it, might have to do with the estimated finish time. If you slightly undersold yourself, you might self seed yourself in a slower corral.
This is why each year is different in terms of the cutoff for an individual corral. It's based on the POT submitted by that pool of people, and by runDisney determining how many people they want in each corral. If they suddenly choose to have different corral sizing then the corral letter to POT may suddenly change. But the important part is to see how many people are in front and behind you when the corrals come out, not necessarily the letter. In the end, that's all that really matters when it comes to corral placement.
