Marathon Weekend 2018

[courtneybeth]

@courtneybeth, was that you on raw threads Instagram post today? The girl in the pictures looked like you but I wasn't sure.

Yes! That was me.

I was surprised they opted to repost my entry into their contest.

 

[FelisLachesis]

Stupid question: The monorails will be open pre-race to take passengers, right?

 

[rteetz]

Stupid question: The monorails will be open pre-race to take passengers, right?

For the half and full usually yes. The 5K and 10K they haven't been in the past couple years.

 

[FelisLachesis]

For the half and full usually yes. The 5K and 10K they haven't been in the past couple years.

So they'll have a bus?

 

[rteetz]

So they'll have a bus?

Yes.

 

[Keels]

@Dis_Yoda is correct. The relationship of the actual race times is not linear. Thus, you can't take mile PR time and multiply by 26.2 to get an estimated marathon finish time.

I think the confusion stems from this comment I made:



So this use of "linear" was not in description of the of the race times multiplied by a linear number, but rather the relationship when looking at the times on a race equivalency look up chart.

This is an example of a race equivalency chart (Daniels VDOT):

View attachment 242264

If the relationship were linear, then your race times would look like this:

View attachment 242263

This person can run a 5:56 mile, a 20:18 5k, and a 3:14:06 marathon. This is not common among recreational runners (I'll get back to this).

More common is a non-linear relationship like this:

View attachment 242262

This person runs a 6:17 mile, but they don't run a 3:24:39 marathon. Instead, they run a 4:34:59 marathon. Thus, the line connecting all of the data points is not linear, but shows a fade as the distance gets longer.

So, if a linear relationship is not common among recreational runners when using a race equivalency calculator, then where did the race equivalency calculator come from?

One of the first running calculators that I am aware of (and most commonly used today) was published in Runner's World in 1977 by Peter Reigel.

Reigel's formula is: t2 = t1 * (d2 / d1)^1.06
t= time
d= distance

So, as the distance increases by double, the pace declines by 6%.

Other formulas:
Reigel #2:
x = (av)^(1/(1-b))

Cameron:
a = 13.49681 - (0.000030363 * old_dist) + (835.7114 / (old_dist^0.7905))
b = 13.49681 - (0.000030363 * new_dist) + (835.7114 / (new_dist^0.7905))
new_time = (old_time / old_dist) * (a / b) * new_dist

Purdy:
P = A(Ts/Tp - B)
where P - is purdy points
Ts - Standard time from tables + time factor
Tp - Performance time to be compared
A, B - the scaling factors.

VO2max:
percent_max = 0.8 + 0.1894393 * e^(-0.012778 * time) + 0.2989558 * e^(-0.1932605 * time)
vo2 = -4.60 + 0.182258 * velocity + 0.000104 * velocity^2
vo2max = vo2 / percent_max

All of these formulas have something in common, they were written some time ago before the latest running boom. Which means much of the data used to generate these formulas was based on well trained athletes at the faster end of the pace spectrum. Sometimes based off world records.

Vickers made an attempt using real-world current data to come up with a better calculator. He takes into account training (using miles per week) as a first attempt at reworking the calculator at the crux of where most calculators fail: the marathon. In most cases, the race equivalency calculator assumes you are under ideal conditions and ideally trained. But for a portion of the running community, they are not well trained for the marathon and thus the calculator will fail in giving them a realistic goal/pacing strategy. Vickers attempted to fix that error in the calculators with his calculation based on several thousand self-reported results. I reviewed his paper back in November last year in my journal (link).

His forumla is:

Model 1:

View attachment 242286

Model 2:

View attachment 242288

This was my final conclusion on Vickers based on my interpretation of his paper:

There are 310 data points in their model 1 prediction (one other race) and 171 data points in the model 2 prediction. The data is further broken down into percentiles of 5%. So for model 1 that means 15 data points and for model 2 9 data points. Getting a lot smaller, right. So when evaluating the actual data I would conclude that the new model (1 and 2) is better than Riegel for everything in the top 67% of their data set, when evaluating the data as raw data. For model 1 that means everyone faster than a expected marathon of 3:52 should use the new calculator and for model 2 a 3:53. However, if you are slower than a 3:52 or 3:53, then the classic Riegel calculator is still better. If you want to say that avoiding a too fast start is the absolute paramount then the time cutoff is more like 4:11-4:14 (faster use the new calc, and slower use the classic calc). Now remember the NYC and Running in the USA averages? They were roughly 4:11-4:38. So essentially, the average runner should still use the classic calculator because the new calculator isn't as good at predicting average to slower times based on those completed in NYC or Running in the USA. Looks like to me they missed the mark with the original data set, and thus when they created a calculator it badly misjudges the times of those in the bottom 50% of marathon runners (but the classic can do those better, or at least according to the limited data set available in their original values).

But I do urge you to read the full synopsis I did because there was definitely some great things about the paper.

So, what is McMillan (as that was the original questions right? Ugh DopeyBadger and is really long winded answers...)

To determine, what he uses I did the following. I entered two random marathon times to see what HM output was generated. One generated output could be correct by chance, but having two match means they're very likely the same calculator.

McMillan -
3:00 marathon = 1:25:32 half marathon
5:25:36 marathon = 2:34:43 half marathon

Daniels VDOT -
3:00 marathon = 1:26:20 half marathon
5:25:36 marathon = 2:36:10 half marathon

Hansons -
3:00 marathon = 1:26:20 half marathon
5:25:36 marathon = 2:36:10 half marathon

Reigel -
3:00 marathon = 1:26:20 half marathon
5:25:36 marathon = 2:36:10 half marathon

From this, it shows that he uses a unique formula. This article (link) from Runner's World in 2014 confirms that it is his own proprietary calculation based on data from real-world samples (not world class).

Hope this helps!

NOW Y'ALL KNOW WHY I REALLY QUIT THIS BOARD!!!

#NoMath

 

[FelisLachesis]

NOW Y'ALL KNOW WHY I REALLY QUIT THIS BOARD!!!

#NoMath

Hey @DopeyBadger , have they ever found a use for the double integral of velocity, which I think is still the integral of displacement?

Also, what would the proof that double, triple, and quadruple derivatives of acceleration, also known as Snap, Crackle, and Pop, resperively, all being positive have any affect on the jerk of the runner?

 

[Anisum]

NOW Y'ALL KNOW WHY I REALLY QUIT THIS BOARD!!!

#NoMath

Taking the time to comment that I'm so impressed with your tri progress. Good luck in your Half Ironman since I probably won't see too much of you on the boards!

 

[VAfamily1998]

Spectators for the half marathon:
At Dopey last year, we stayed at BWI and it was really nice for my Dh to be able to just walk out and see me on the race course near the end, without having to mess with buses or other transportation.

For 2018, the whole family (me, Dh, and our 4 kids ranging in age from 11-17) is going down.
My 17 year old will be running the half with me. If being able to do that again (view the runners on the course by just walking around the hotel, and not messing with transportation) is important to us--which hotel should we stay at?
I think Poly, GF, and Shades of Green (we qualify) would be the only options? How difficult would it be from Wilderness Lodge or the campground--would boats be running by that time? If timing matters, based on previous years corrals, I think my son and I will both be assigned corral D or E and we will probably average about a 10-11 minute mile, since we will stop for photos...

 

[dzak1717]

Stupid question: The monorails will be open pre-race to take passengers, right?

For our last two halves we stayed at the poly and that was one great perk. The monorails last year for Princess were a little more crowded but they had a cheer squad greeting us as we boarded in the morning. And the ride back is definitely easier then waiting on the buses if you are trying to get back to the MK area.

 

[dzak1717]

Spectators for the half marathon:
At Dopey last year, we stayed at BWI and it was really nice for my Dh to be able to just walk out and see me on the race course near the end, without having to mess with buses or other transportation.

For 2018, the whole family (me, Dh, and our 4 kids ranging in age from 11-17) is going down.
My 17 year old will be running the half with me. If being able to do that again (view the runners on the course by just walking around the hotel, and not messing with transportation) is important to us--which hotel should we stay at?
I think Poly, GF, and Shades of Green (we qualify) would be the only options? How difficult would it be from Wilderness Lodge or the campground--would boats be running by that time? If timing matters, based on previous years corrals, I think my son and I will both be assigned corral D or E and we will probably average about a 10-11 minute mile, since we will stop for photos...

If you can Poly/GF would be my vote since you don't have to worry about transportation and they can watch you at the TTC and then again on your way out of MK when they pass the resorts.

 

[FelisLachesis]

For our last two halves we stayed at the poly and that was one great perk. The monorails last year for Princess were a little more crowded but they had a cheer squad greeting us as we boarded in the morning. And the ride back is definitely easier then waiting on the buses if you are trying to get back to the MK area.

The reason I ask is because I found a really sweet deal on a CR room for Marathon weekend (thanks @ZellyB !) . I wanted to see if the monorail would take us down, so I wouldn't have to deal with a bus (and said bus not hitting road closures, or other people)

 

[MissLiss279]

Runner's World has a runDisney "runCation" giveaway:

http://ontherun.runnersworld.com/dr...tm_term=929724249&utm_campaign=Runner’s World

 

[jmasgat]

The reason I ask is because I found a really sweet deal on a CR room for Marathon weekend (thanks @ZellyB !) . I wanted to see if the monorail would take us down, so I wouldn't have to deal with a bus (and said bus not hitting road closures, or other people)

A sweet deal that you can share?

 

[LSUfan4444]

I have no clue if I entered a proof of time when I registered....can someone remind me of how I can check?

 

[disneydaydreamer33]

Runner's World has a runDisney "runCation" giveaway:

http://ontherun.runnersworld.com/dreamruncation?utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=Social&utm_term=929724249&utm_campaign=Runner’s World

I wasn't able to get to the "official rules" of the contest. Do you know if it's one entry per person or household? I'm sure by entering DH that will solidify our chances for winning this thing! I'm always wildly optimistic about my chances of winning these things and then of course, I do not win any of them!

 

[courtneybeth]

I have no clue if I entered a proof of time when I registered....can someone remind me of how I can check?

Go to Active and check your registration. You can view it and about half-way down it'll show you what you put as your estimated finish time and there's some open slots for your POT if you haven't done so already.

You have until 10/3 to do so... so you have awhile

 

[LSUfan4444]

Thanks ...I put it in. I just couldnt remember.

 

[MissLiss279]

I wasn't able to get to the "official rules" of the contest. Do you know if it's one entry per person or household? I'm sure by entering DH that will solidify our chances for winning this thing! I'm always wildly optimistic about my chances of winning these things and then of course, I do not win any of them!

Yeah, 'something went wrong' on the official rules page for me as well. One day you have to win something... why not now!

 

[Waiting2goback]

If you read the Marathon Investigation article, this wasn't the first time she's stolen a bib. The guy who runs the site has examples of her doing it in other races, including the 2016 Tink races (which had traditional volunteers and not the new paid temps).

I'd have to guess that this sort of thing happens more than we realize...we just don't always hear about it either because it doesn't blow up like this particular story did, or the people that do it simply do not get caught.

Some people are just shady and have no integrity. I know someone who claims to be a runner. She talks the talk. She buys all the goodies. She signs up for all the Disney races, like this year's Dopey for example. She plans "runcations". Then she goes to the race and gets swept. She did Princess weekend. Signed up for all three races and she quit/got swept at mile 3 of the 1/2. No big deal accept this is the second race she has been swept from where she posts herself with a picture of the medal and accepts congrats for having finished. She walks around the parks accepting congratulations from other runners who actually put in the work to earn the medal knowing full well the only thing she has succeeded at is not tripping up the stairs of the sweeper bus.

The running community has been a huge help for me personally and I try to give back to it whenever I can, whether it is offering encouragement to people behind the scenes or sharing info on a travel agent that can same someone money. I find I get just as much out of that as I do the running. But, some people need to lie, cheat, scam the system all for attention to make themselves feel better. And, while it can be frustrating to see someone taking advantage of other people it also explains why those kinds of people are often miserable and have no chance of ever finding happiness.

Whenever I hear these types of stories I get mad at first but I usually just end up feeling bad for them because they really have no idea what they are missing by doing things the right way. That's always more rewarding.