Marathon Weekend 2023

[DopeyBadger]

Hey @DopeyBadger, do you want to start a prediction thread on what the T+D will be for Marathon Weekend? See who can guess closest at 6 months out?

Sounds like a good idea for a SAFD game for @Baloo in MI. Although I can pitch in and help with the rules, tallies, details and such if desired. I got some ideas on how to make it feasible and interesting.

 

[accm]

When people say that it is impossible to know, they aren't being difficult. They are being 1000% honest. Some Marathon Weekends have had literally freezing temperatures and some have been in the 80's. And it can (and usually does) change from day to day. You cannot plan on anything other than it probably won't snow (much). Everything else is probably possible.

I was maybe just hopeful someone had their crystal ball polished recently

If you need to be ready that far in advance, I'd suggest you take a layered approach to your costuming. I've run 6 Marathon Weekends at WDW and they've ranged from exploring the Antarctic (for me from my central NC perspective) to running somewhere near the surface of the sun. I'd say experiences have been roughly 2 weekends on the cold side, 2 on the hot side and 2 somewhere in the middle.

Also, the forecast can be considered fairly unreliable up to a couple of days out so you're either going to have to guess and hope or plan for all eventualities. When I pack for Marathon Weekend I ensure I'm covered for anything from the 20s to the 80s plus humidity.

The thing with my "costume" is that it's really just normal running clothes, but sewn with themed fabric. So I might just be looking at sewing long sleeve and short sleeve options. I'll also be bringing lots of throw away clothes for the waiting in the corrals, since I think that'll be the worse part if it's cold.

You are correct. In terms of racing performance for the large majority of runners, the weather can be ideal racing conditions or bad racing conditions. Below is a chart of all the T+Ds (Temperature + Dew Point, like a 80F temp and 50F dew point would be T+D=130) from 6:50am to 11:30am for the Orlando area from Jan 6th to Jan 12th. The 2023 race dates are Jan 5th - 8th.

View attachment 677981

I categorized the different weather conditions by how much it would impact the large majority of runner's performances. Based on these different categorizations, you have almost an equal chance of ideal (23%), good (19%), ok (19%), not great (21%), and bad (19%) conditions during the Marathon Weekend races. This year's edition is earlier in January though, and you can see over the last eleven years that the slightly earlier days in January have a higher probability of good days than do the later Jan dates. Despite only being separated by six days.

Just to get a general idea as far as effect on performance, this is the chart I use (this is for a 2:30 HM runner):

View attachment 677984

Under different conditions this runner could do:

Ideal - 2:29:54
Good - 2:31:24
OK - 2:32:54
Not Great - 2:34:24
Bad - 2:38:11 (used T+D 152 since that's the highest T+D in Orlando during those dates at 11:30am, but we've seen slightly higher towards the tail end of the marathon)

So an 8-minute swing for someone who is presumed to be heat acclimated. Someone who is less heat acclimated is probably going to see an even slower performance under those conditions.

The crazy part about MW weather is that year to year is hard to predict, but also within a year it's all over the place too. Look at 2015. It was not great, then ideal, ideal, and bad in a span of six days. So you really don't know what you're going to get when it comes to MW. Be prepared for everything, and for it to change quickly. So in preparation for an outfit make it useable at freezing cold and boiling hot (so something that is flexible).

Thank you for all this information. I should be well acclimated to the heat since I'll have spent the 3 weeks beforehand in Brazil, and hopefully won't have lost my cold tolerance in that time.

Guess I should also budget to pay for extra baggage for all the extra clothes I'll have to bring

 

[sandam1]

I was maybe just hopeful someone had their crystal ball polished recently

My crystal ball is in the shop. Sorry!

I'll also be bringing lots of throw away clothes for the waiting in the corrals, since I think that'll be the worse part if it's cold.

I got myself a pack of Mylar emergency blankets from Amazon before my first Disney race and swear by them. Plus they are very small and packable. If it's cold, Disney gives out something similar at the end of the race, but the ones that I got are longer and cover my legs better.

Note: you need to ditch the Mylar before you cross the start line or it will mess up the timing chip so this isn't a great plan if you think you are going to need something warmer once you start moving.

 

[mmm_texas]

You are correct. In terms of racing performance for the large majority of runners, the weather can be ideal racing conditions or bad racing conditions. Below is a chart of all the T+Ds (Temperature + Dew Point, like a 80F temp and 50F dew point would be T+D=130) from 6:50am to 11:30am for the Orlando area from Jan 6th to Jan 12th. The 2023 race dates are Jan 5th - 8th.

View attachment 677981

I categorized the different weather conditions by how much it would impact the large majority of runner's performances. Based on these different categorizations, you have almost an equal chance of ideal (23%), good (19%), ok (19%), not great (21%), and bad (19%) conditions during the Marathon Weekend races. This year's edition is earlier in January though, and you can see over the last eleven years that the slightly earlier days in January have a higher probability of good days than do the later Jan dates. Despite only being separated by six days.

Just to get a general idea as far as effect on performance, this is the chart I use (this is for a 2:30 HM runner):

View attachment 677984

Under different conditions this runner could do:

Ideal - 2:29:54
Good - 2:31:24
OK - 2:32:54
Not Great - 2:34:24
Bad - 2:38:11 (used T+D 152 since that's the highest T+D in Orlando during those dates at 11:30am, but we've seen slightly higher towards the tail end of the marathon)

So an 8-minute swing for someone who is presumed to be heat acclimated. Someone who is less heat acclimated is probably going to see an even slower performance under those conditions.

The crazy part about MW weather is that year to year is hard to predict, but also within a year it's all over the place too. Look at 2015. It was not great, then ideal, ideal, and bad in a span of six days. So you really don't know what you're going to get when it comes to MW. Be prepared for everything, and for it to change quickly. So in preparation for an outfit make it useable at freezing cold and boiling hot (so something that is flexible).

No disrespect to @DopeyBadger (I'm sure his criteria are rooted in actual performance stats, not my personal comfort), but I'm suspicious of any chart that doesn't have a lower bound on "ideal" temperature conditions! For instance, and maybe it's just because I'm accustomed to Texas weather, but I know I didn't consider 2021 Wine & Dine weather ideal (especially Saturday morning )!

 

[DopeyBadger]

No disrespect to @DopeyBadger (I'm sure his criteria are rooted in actual performance stats, not my personal comfort), but I'm suspicious of any chart that doesn't have a lower bound on "ideal" temperature conditions! For instance, and maybe it's just because I'm accustomed to Texas weather, but I know I didn't consider 2021 Wine & Dine weather ideal (especially Saturday morning )!

That's totally fair. The coldest T+D recorded during the timeframe used was 65 at 6:50am on Jan 8th, 2015. That appears to have been a temperature of 40F and dew point of 25F. Marathon Weekend 2018 was wind chills of 24, 30, 37 and 38F. My personal best performances have almost exclusively come from the 30s. But there's definitely a point where it's too cold, and the T+D method does not account for that.

 

[kirstie101]

SAFD: I am going to do one in California Adventure . My favorite quiet place there is near the redwood creek challenge trail thing. I like to sit on the wood logs under the shade of the evergreen trees. We watch the folks coming off Grizzly River Run and see how soaked they look. We’ve sat there with napping babies many many times. There’s a churro cart and bathroom not too far which is always handy!

On the injury front the good news is I do not have hip bursitis! Just some trigger points that need to be worked out and some strengthening to be done. Did a very short easy run yesterday pain free. Feeling good about marathon weekend!

 

[Cabius]

SAFD:

My all-time favorite is at Disneyland, and it's the raised/inset porch on Main Street U.S.A. There's a little rocking chair, and it's a great place to relax and enjoy the day. (Fun fact: this storefront was originally home to 'The Wizard of Bras' -- a lingerie store on Main Street USA run by a lessee when the park opened in 1955! The raised/inset porch was build because such things required a certain amount of decorum.)

 

[pluto377]

SAFD: While not directly in the park, this past MW I didn't do any park days (I know, sacrilegious), I went over to Hollywood Studios one late afternoon and sat on one of the benches outside the security entrance near the Friendship Boat drop-off. It was completely relaxing and peaceful. I did some people watching, read a book, I could faintly hear the entrance area music loop (which is great). I enjoyed killing a few hours there.

I'm thinking about a no park trip in 2023. Did you miss not doing the parks? What did you do to fill the time? I'm afraid I'll get bored especially since I'll be solo.

 

[kirstie101]

Just booked my flight to Orlando! Was gonna do a red eye on United but decided to go in on Southwest a little earlier. I’ll be landing at 11pm so I booked all stars Music for that first night and I can have them move my bags to POFQ the next day.

 

[Baloo in MI]

Sounds like a good idea for a SAFD game for @Baloo in MI. Although I can pitch in and help with the rules, tallies, details and such if desired. I got some ideas on how to make it feasible and interesting.

Sounds fun and very open to your help @DopeyBadger! Still in travel mode for another week, but we could maybe get a contest going in July? How is it almost July…

 

[Sleepless Knight]

Jumping in on the medal pic convo—I like medal pics in all the parks. Some of my favorite ones from Princess 2022 were in HS

Back when they had the Millennium Falcon medal for the Kessel Run, I loved to take pictures of the medal only flying around various Disney World locations. World Showcase was particularly fun as was Animal Kingdom.

Thank you, that’s a great idea! It’s the San Francisco marathon.

After my first marathon, I looked into the San Francisco Marathon, but I'm nowhere near fast enough to meet their minimum pace.

Well, that makes me feel hopeful! I may PR but only because my first two marathons were not my best effort . At least it looks like it will be a beautiful race.

I've run 2 half marathons in San Francisco, both the SF Giant Race. They went through Fishermans Wharf, up to the Golden Gate Bridge, through Golden Gate park and along the bay and finished on the field at the Giants ballpark. Truly beautiful races.

Does anyone know what the weather is generally like for marathon weekend?

2019 was hot and brutal. 2020 made me long for the icy cold heat of 2019 as they had to cut the course short that year because of the heat. 2022 was supposed to be hot, but did not feel anywhere near as bad as 2019, let alone 2020. For what it's worth, the 2019 Half Marathon was cool so the weather can change on a dime as others have said.

I know that my prediction is going to be a cold year - simply because I went and bought a bunch of warm weather running gear. And I expect to run into some rain for either Wine and Dine and/or Marathon Weekend - again because I haven't found the perfect running raincoat.

This might be a good thing as I can now have an excuse to use my cold weather running gear that I purchased specifically for Dopey. Back in 2018 when I was training for Dopey #1.

SAFD: I tend to relax in the theme parks in places that make me happy and/or are special to me. So I can relax easily in front of Sleeping Beauty Castle in Disneyland no matter how crowded. I often sit for a spell in front of the Millennium Falcon in Galaxy's Edge. For me it's often the memories that make a place relaxing no matter how crazy they can get at times.

Honorable mention: I have found that the Frozen nap along is a great attraction for just that. I have to actually see it, but it has provided me with many a much needed nap through the years on either coast, sometimes to the point of Frozen nap along starts in 15 minutes? Perfect! I can take a nap.

 

[Marebear_runs]

I've run 2 half marathons in San Francisco, both the SF Giant Race. They went through Fishermans Wharf, up to the Golden Gate Bridge, through Golden Gate park and along the bay and finished on the field at the Giants ballpark. Truly beautiful races.

I really want to do this one! Hoping I can make it happen for the 10k with DS this year—he wants the bobble head!

 

[kirstie101]

I really want to do this one! Hoping I can make it happen for the 10k with DS this year—he wants the bobble head!

Giants race was my first ever 10k! I told my son maybe next year we can do it together!

 

[DisneyParrothead]

I’ll jump in and pose a question.

SAFD: what is your favorite non-character dining options for MW?

I ask since my cousin and I are doing Princess and she was at WDW in April with her kids. Her one stipulation for restaurants next February is no character dining .

My favorite is Wine Bar George at DS. Definitely no character dining and you can people watch.

 

[Herding_Cats]

SAFD:
Chef Art Smith's Homecomin. Specifically the weekend brunch for the blueberry mimosa. The big one. On every trip

 

[Herding_Cats]

As a side note, this question is reminding me to go check when we can make ADRs so I can put an alarm in my calendar.

 

[RuntheMouse]

SAFD: We had breakfast after the half at Wispering Canyon at WL. So much bacon! We’re staying there again this year so rinse and repeat!

 

[azrivest]

SAFD : I second WBG. I mean, dole whip mimosas and biscuits&gravy.

But those blueberry mimosas sound divine! I'll try that for W&D

 

[lookingforsunshine]

SAFD: I love Raglan Road at Disney Springs. Entertainment is available, good food— never had a bad time there!

 

[Baloo in MI]

I’ll jump in and pose a question.

SAFD: what is your favorite non-character dining options for MW?

I ask since my cousin and I are doing Princess and she was at WDW in April with her kids. Her one stipulation for restaurants next February is no character dining .

My favorite is Wine Bar George at DS. Definitely no character dining and you can people watch.

Answer to SAFD:
Thank you @DisneyParrothead! Still at the tail end of long vacation. And apologies to all for not getting this out sooner. Sadly vacation ends tomorrow, so next week I should be more timely!

My favorite non-character dining is The Blue Bayou in Disneyland. Not so much the food, but I do love the Monte Cristo! It is all about the ambiance and views of Pirates of the Caribbean. Love that place.