Poll: How will the tower at the Polynesian Village Resort become part of DVC?

[MyDogTink]

After extensive consultation with my Ouija Board, Crystal Ball, and confirmed by my Magic 8-ball, here’s what I believe will happen:

• DVC will put out a HUGE press release (attributed to Yvonne Chang, of course) announcing the roll-out of DVC 2.0 (my name, not theirs) soon.
• DVC 2.0 will offer the opportunity to purchase a home resort of one of the following: CFW, RIV (undeclared units), AUL (undeclared units), VDH (undeclared units), and the new Polynesian Tower (all units).
• In DVC 2.0, direct purchasers will have an 11-month home resort reservation priority, followed by a 9-month reservation priority for other accommodations in DVC 2.0, and lastly, a 7-month reservation ability at all DVC 1.0 resorts.
• DVC 2.0 contracts purchased via resale may only be used at the DVC 2.0 home resort but will still have an 11-month reservation priority.
• DVC 1.0 contracts purchased directly from DVC, and pre-2019 resale contracts, will have the ability to reserve DVC 2.0 accommodations at the 7-month window.
• DVC 1.0 resale contracts purchased in 2019 and later will have no access to DVC 2.0 accommodations.
• DVC 1.0 traditional “deeded” sales will continue under existing rules until available points in the remaining declared units are exhausted. Additional sales demand for DVC 1.0 will be met via ROFR.
• All future DVC resorts will be included in DVC 2.0

Thoughts?

Edited to add VDH!

Outstanding analysis and summary. DVC may plagiarize this as their talking points for guides.

Your analysis assumes DVC 1.0 resale post 2019 cannot book Poly points in DVC 2.0 (i.e. Poly2 Tower). Is that correct? If so, you think DVC doesn’t care that there will be a mutiny because of Chang’s statement? I mean I don’t think they care and I still think her phrases “right now” and “part of the same resort” don’t equal “guaranteed same association.”.

 

[BeachClub2014]

Outstanding analysis and summary. DVC may plagiarize this as their talking points for guides.

Your analysis assumes DVC 1.0 resale post 2019 cannot book Poly points in DVC 2.0 (i.e. Poly2 Tower). Is that correct? If so, you think DVC doesn’t care that there will be a mutiny because of Chang’s statement? I mean I don’t think they care and I still think her phrases “right now” and “part of the same resort” don’t equal “guaranteed same association.”.

Yes, that is my thinking. Any post-2019 resales would not be able to be booked at the Poly Tower, CFW or any other offerings in the Trust. My thinking on this is based purely on their commitment to resale restrictions and the desire to drive direct sales.

I don't think they will bat an eye at any potential backlash as a result of Chang's goofy answer at the annual meeting Q&A. I don't think they will alter or change any business decisions that hey may have made either because of her answer or the potential for a few disgruntled DVC'ers. Remember, the majority of their sales go to new customers, or so I've read here on the DIs.

 

[Sandisw]

Outstanding analysis and summary. DVC may plagiarize this as their talking points for guides.

Your analysis assumes DVC 1.0 resale post 2019 cannot book Poly points in DVC 2.0 (i.e. Poly2 Tower). Is that correct? If so, you think DVC doesn’t care that there will be a mutiny because of Chang’s statement? I mean I don’t think they care and I still think her phrases “right now” and “part of the same resort” don’t equal “guaranteed same association.”.

I am also going to add that I bet there are many DVC owners who have no idea what happened at the meeting and that while the group was happy, thst was still a very small audience who heard it.

I think the bigger issue will be the sites that posted it with the words confirmed. Confirmed to me is offical. And nothing offical has ever been done.

 

[zavandor]

I think it can too but the hurdles to do that, after doing my research, don’t give DVD any benefit.

So, I think it will be part of the trust association or it will be added to be part of the PVB system.

The advantage would be to sell add-ons to existing PVB members who want to buy more points direct at the Poly, to use either at the longhouses, at the Tower to upgrade the room size they book or for flexibility.
I don't know how big that potential market is, if it's worth the hassle for Disney. If I have to guess, it might be a good size in general, but especially so at the Poly where many owners might have outgrown the "studios only" phase of their life.

Also, they don't really know how successful the idea of a Trust is, so having a mixed use property to test the waters might be better. If potential buyers are diffident (as they should be) of the Trust, maybe a deeded Poly might sell better. The only thing they would have to do i declare more deeded units than Trust units and then re-evaluate

 

[eticketplease]

The advantage would be to sell add-ons to existing PVB members who want to buy more points direct at the Poly, to use either at the longhouses, at the Tower to upgrade the room size they book or for flexibility.
I don't know how big that potential market is, if it's worth the hassle for Disney. If I have to guess, it might be a good size in general, but especially so at the Poly where many owners might have outgrown the "studios only" phase of their life.

I agree as many original purchasers from 2015 have outgrown the studios and the bungalows are out of the budget.

With a combination of kids getting bigger and wanting to bring friends the 1 and 2 bedrooms are certainly a need for the poly and hopefully it will be added to the existing association so that PVB owners will be able to book the larger accommodations at 11 months. More and more families are having to search for the larger accommodations at the 7 month window.

 

[Sandisw]

The advantage would be to sell add-ons to existing PVB members who want to buy more points direct at the Poly, to use either at the longhouses, at the Tower to upgrade the room size they book or for flexibility.
I don't know how big that potential market is, if it's worth the hassle for Disney. If I have to guess, it might be a good size in general, but especially so at the Poly where many owners might have outgrown the "studios only" phase of their life.

Also, they don't really know how successful the idea of a Trust is, so having a mixed use property to test the waters might be better. If potential buyers are diffident (as they should be) of the Trust, maybe a deeded Poly might sell better. The only thing they would have to do i declare more deeded units than Trust units and then re-evaluate

That will surprise me, just from the standpoint of confusion…..which is why I am even leaning against them adding rooms from RIv, AUL to it

VDH is early enough in sales, but even that might make it a bit confusing to sell both that it started one way and then changed.

But for the tower, since they haven’t sold any, they woouldnt beed to make that property a mixed use property.

And, I do not know how hard or easy it is to classify the building as part leasehold condo and part not.

 

[WeIcomeHome]

My guess at this point is the trust is simply needed for CFW since they are not permanent buildings and all this speculation on adding in other resorts isn't even a consideration.

Having resorts with partial deeded sales and partial trust sales seems to have major downsides for trust owners. The trust has a finite number of points at these resorts in a given year available to book prior to the 7 month window. What is preventing trust owners from using all available points at say Riviera 10 months into the year with no remaining Riviera points available to book rooms in the final 2 months at the 11 month window. I don't see how a trust could allow borrowing points in this scenario (similar to how deeded owners do currently) thereby decreasing the following years available points to book at 11 months and creating more scarcity of those points.

 

[Sandisw]

My guess at this point is the trust is simply needed for CFW since they are not permanent buildings and all this speculation on adding in other resorts isn't even a consideration.

Having resorts with partial deeded sales and partial trust sales seems to have major downsides for trust owners. The trust has a finite number of points at these resorts in a given year available to book prior to the 7 month window. What is preventing trust owners from using all available points at say Riviera 10 months into the year with no remaining Riviera points available to book rooms in the final 2 months at the 11 month window. I don't see how a trust could allow borrowing points in this scenario (similar to how deeded owners do currently) thereby decreasing the following years available points to book at 11 months and creating more scarcity of those points.

I have mentioned this but it’s about the resort property the trust owns which is what it would have access to, not inventory not part of the trust.

I know some think that they can just put in points and if this was a big rental company, I’d agree.

But they are selling access under a timeshare estate so they have to have the property to back that up. They can’t just add points.

So, any actual units or rooms that are added from something like RIv would be the ones not yet bookable by current owners.

That is how the trust would work fine as they have their own set of rooms

 

[GoingSince1990]

After extensive consultation with my Ouija Board, Crystal Ball, and confirmed by my Magic 8-ball, here’s what I believe will happen:

• DVC will put out a HUGE press release (attributed to Yvonne Chang, of course) announcing the roll-out of DVC 2.0 (my name, not theirs) soon.
• DVC 2.0 will offer the opportunity to purchase a home resort of one of the following: CFW, RIV (undeclared units), AUL (undeclared units), VDH (undeclared units), and the new Polynesian Tower (all units).
• In DVC 2.0, direct purchasers will have an 11-month home resort reservation priority, followed by a 9-month reservation priority for other accommodations in DVC 2.0, and lastly, a 7-month reservation ability at all DVC 1.0 resorts.
• DVC 2.0 contracts purchased via resale may only be used at the DVC 2.0 home resort but will still have an 11-month reservation priority.
• DVC 1.0 contracts purchased directly from DVC, and pre-2019 resale contracts, will have the ability to reserve DVC 2.0 accommodations at the 7-month window.
• DVC 1.0 resale contracts purchased in 2019 and later will have no access to DVC 2.0 accommodations.
• DVC 1.0 traditional “deeded” sales will continue under existing rules until available points in the remaining declared units are exhausted. Additional sales demand for DVC 1.0 will be met via ROFR.
• All future DVC resorts will be included in DVC 2.0

Thoughts?

Edited to add VDH!

Has your Ouija board changed its opinion at all, following today’s CFW sales announcement?

 

[BeachClub2014]

Has your Ouija board changed its opinion at all, following today’s CFW sales announcement?

Nope, still on track. The real indicator is the Poly Tower.

 

[maui22]

Nope, still on track. The real indicator is the Poly Tower.

After reading the reported CFW dues, has the Ouija board indicated if all trust resorts will share dues? Can’t see CFW selling or maintaining value with its dues. This may work is if the lump the high dues resorts with the lower dues, but it also means the trust could have some future surprises in store.

I can’t resist…since CFW allows dogs…it’s like walking through a dog park. Beware where you step.

 

[BeachClub2014]

After reading the reported CFW dues, has the Ouija board indicated if all trust resorts will share dues? Can’t see CFW selling or maintaining value with its dues. This may work is if the lump the high dues resorts with the lower dues, but it also means the trust could have some future surprises in store.

I can’t resist…since CFW allows dogs…it’s like walking through a dog park. Beware where you step.

I don't see "shared" dues in the future of DVC 2.0. Madame Leota chimed in through the Crystal Ball and said that dues will be assessed for each home resort, as is currently the case in DVC 1.0. For CFW, the very attractive points chart will overcome any concerns about dues.

 

[nlenguyen]

DVC loves to announce news on Tuesdays, I would assume next month on a Tuesday if Cabins are not getting the sales they want, we will get announcement of Poly