Poll: What will happen with Grand Floridian Resale prices?

[DKZB]

Agreed that a lower price would be extra savings, but one can recoup that 2500 easily in blue card discounts (although to me the unrestricted points is worth paying extra for me if we’re talking about a 17/pt price difference because who knows what’ll happen in 2042).

I’m in the camp that things sellers are irrational and that brokers aren’t doing their job. And after VGF2 started selling, it was really easy to tell which brokers just simply aren’t informed. I had a broker scoff at my low offers for VGF resale, even telling me that the 207/pt price for VGF2 was only if you’re buying 200+ points. Another told me a contract in the 160/pt range would never pass ROFR (the 125pt I got for $158 did). The main benefit—that brokers advertise—to going resale is the savings versus going direct. So the price has to appeal enough in order to warrant going resale versus the current rate. Contracts for VGF at 190 and up (even ones at 180) are too overpriced, but then again that’s just my opinion but I’m sure most buyers share those sentiments since the majority of the ones priced 190 and up have been sitting on the market for months.

I offered $150 on a contract yesterday. The broker said Disney had ROFR’d one as high as $160 spring 2021. I chose not to respond but spring 2022 with VGF as an active selling resort and spring 2021 are lightyears apart. I HIGHLY DOUBT they would ROFR $160 now!

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I offered $150 on a contract yesterday. The broker said Disney had ROFR’d one as high as $160 spring 2021. I chose not to respond but spring 2022 with VGF as an active selling resort and spring 2021 are lightyears apart. I HIGHLY DOUBT they would ROFR $160 now!

Did the broker present your offer? Original selling price of VGF was anywhere from $140/pt( early w/ incentives) to $165/pt. Doubt ANY owner is going to sell below $165/pt and Disney will surely take it if so.

 

[Sandisw]

Say a listing is for 60-65 pts..You can bank and go every couple years for a week in Sept., or 5-6 days other times of the year. Pretty good bang for your buck and minimal dues. It’s all in how you plan to use it. VGF will sell out then one is back to $255+ for a small add on. Gotta think past the present.

The other option could be buying the 150, and renting or transferring the extra and make your money back fairly quickly and end up not needing to add on later.

But if someone truly wants or needs to start small, then it is a foot in the door. Then they can add on smaller amounts direct.

 

[pianomanzano]

Did the broker present your offer? Original selling price of VGF was anywhere from $140/pt( early w/ incentives) to $165/pt. Doubt ANY owner is going to sell below $165/pt and Disney will surely take it if so.

The ROFR thread is showing that there are sellers selling well below 165 and that they’re passing ROFR. The board sponsor even advertise VGF resale for as low as 160/pt when VGF2 started.

 

[hglenn]

The other option could be buying the 150, and renting or transferring the extra and make your money back fairly quickly and end up not needing to add on later.

But if someone truly wants or needs to start small, then it is a foot in the door. Then they can add on smaller amounts direct.

This is what we are looking at. DH doesn’t even like GF. And I know they wouldn’t be considered the best SAP, however, as previously noted, it’s def a highly desirable resort and thinking long-term I think it’s a good option. And, as you noted, it gets us in the door for future member pricing for upcoming resorts which I think we will prefer over GF and for small-point direct add-ons for RIV.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Agreed that a lower price would be extra savings, but one can recoup that 2500 easily in blue card discounts (although to me the unrestricted points is worth paying extra for me if we’re talking about a 17/pt price difference because who knows what’ll happen in 2042).

I’m in the camp that things sellers are irrational and that brokers aren’t doing their job. And after VGF2 started selling, it was really easy to tell which brokers just simply aren’t informed. I had a broker scoff at my low offers for VGF resale, even telling me that the 207/pt price for VGF2 was only if you’re buying 200+ points. Another told me a contract in the 160/pt range would never pass ROFR (the 125pt I got for $158 did). The main benefit—that brokers advertise—to going resale is the savings versus going direct. So the price has to appeal enough in order to warrant going resale versus the current rate. Contracts for VGF at 190 and up (even ones at 180) are too overpriced, but then again that’s just my opinion but I’m sure most buyers share those sentiments since the majority of the ones priced 190 and up have been sitting on the market for months.

I bet there will be some short term price adjustment downward for VGF resale. But, long term, incentives will diminish, the resort will sell out, and I think prices will bounce back. One could argue that currently sellers are being unrealistic, but if contracts are sitting there for months and sellers aren’t going down, and if buyers have to look harder for what they believe are reasonably priced contracts, buyers are just going to have to live with it, no?

 

[hglenn]

I bet there will be some short term price adjustment downward for VGF resale. But, long term, incentives will diminish, the resort will sell out, and I think prices will bounce back. One could argue that currently sellers are being unrealistic, but if contracts are sitting there for months and sellers aren’t going down, and if buyers have to look harder for what they believe are reasonably priced contracts, buyers are just going to have to live with it, no?

Agree. I think it comes down to how badly sellers need/want to sell and how badly buyers want to buy. If the seller isn’t desperate to get rid of the contract then it could pay off to just wait it out.

 

[tidefan]

Agree. I think it comes down to how badly sellers need/want to sell and how badly buyers want to buy. If the seller isn’t desperate to get rid of the contract then it could pay off to just wait it out.

Yep. I think most would just rent out points for a few years until the market adjusts.

 

[pianomanzano]

I bet there will be some short term price adjustment downward for VGF resale. But, long term, incentives will diminish, the resort will sell out, and I think prices will bounce back. One could argue that currently sellers are being unrealistic, but if contracts are sitting there for months and sellers aren’t going down, and if buyers have to look harder for what they believe are reasonably priced contracts, buyers are just going to have to live with it, no?

Sure it’ll definitely bounce back when VGF 2 and prices return to the sold out rate.

To your second point buyers simply just don’t have to buy (or just buy direct). If that’s what you mean by living with it then sure. We only entered the market for VGF because of the low price point. Giving the trend towards a potential buyers market and active selling of VGF2 though it sounds like the pressure is on sellers to lower price or take listings off (which is what some sellers did as VGF2 started).

 

[DVCsloth]

I think VGF used to average a little higher than Polynesian resale. I think it will eventually stay slightly above Polynesian since there are more room options at VGF. With the new poly coming it could change and average around the same price.

 

[DisDad-]

Agree. I think it comes down to how badly sellers need/want to sell and how badly buyers want to buy. If the seller isn’t desperate to get rid of the contract then it could pay off to just wait it out.

That’s what im doing with my 190 point VGF contract. We current have 500 points there and are looking to sell one to buy another resort for the 11 month window.
Once VGF direct sales come to an end and direct prices settle between $275-$300 pp at VGF, resale prices will be somewhere between $200-225 range depending on the size of the contract. That’s when I’ll sell mine. Active sales should sell out in about 18-24 months.

 

[DVCsloth]

That’s what im doing with my 190 point VGF contract. We current have 500 points there and are looking to sell one to buy another resort for the 11 month window.
Once VGF direct sales come to an end and direct prices settle between $275-$300 pp at VGF, resale prices will be somewhere between $200-225 range depending on the size of the contract. That’s when I’ll sell mine. Active sales should sell out in about 18-24 months.

Don't think Direct VGF will get that high. That would require a lot of price increases, VGF should already be sold out in a couple years. Unless it is a huge success and they convert additional buildings.

 

[qwerty2k]

Don't think Direct VGF will get that high. That would require a lot of price increases, VGF should already be sold out in a couple years. Unless it is a huge success and they convert additional buildings.

How long do we think it may take to sell out the new vgf offering?

 

[BWV Dreamin]

The ROFR thread is showing that there are sellers selling well below 165 and that they’re passing ROFR. The board sponsor even advertise VGF resale for as low as 160/pt when VGF2 started.

Must be for large contracts.

 

[pianomanzano]

Must be for large contracts.

I had one pass for $158/pt for 125pts. There’s others out there for similar points and price ranges.

 

[RamblinWreck]

I offered $150 on a contract yesterday. The broker said Disney had ROFR’d one as high as $160 spring 2021. I chose not to respond but spring 2022 with VGF as an active selling resort and spring 2021 are lightyears apart. I HIGHLY DOUBT they would ROFR $160 now!

That’s a joke of a response from the broker.

 

[hglenn]

I offered $150 on a contract yesterday. The broker said Disney had ROFR’d one as high as $160 spring 2021. I chose not to respond but spring 2022 with VGF as an active selling resort and spring 2021 are lightyears apart. I HIGHLY DOUBT they would ROFR $160 now!

One of the resale shops hasn't had a single VGF contract ROFR'd in like 6 months.... The only thing keeping the price high right now is the supply/demand, not ROFR. I suspect DVD would step in if they saw one completely out of line but I don't think $150-$160 is that unreasonable for current conditions.

 

[DVCsloth]

One of the resale shops hasn't had a single VGF contract ROFR'd in like 6 months.... The only thing keeping the price high right now is the supply/demand, not ROFR. I suspect DVD would step in if they saw one completely out of line but I don't think $150-$160 is that unreasonable for current conditions.

Sounds like it may be a good time for VGF resale if the restrictions don't matter to some people.

 

[DKZB]

Did the broker present your offer? Original selling price of VGF was anywhere from $140/pt( early w/ incentives) to $165/pt. Doubt ANY owner is going to sell below $165/pt and Disney will surely take it if so.

Yes and it was a firm NO. We’ve seen a couple contracts hit the ROFR board in the $150s. I don’t need more points but I will take ‘em if I can get ‘em in the $150s

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Sounds like it may be a good time for VGF resale if the restrictions don't matter to some people.

At this point the restrictions are not a deal breaker. MLM , 10% discounts, AP’s ( oh where are they) etc are ok but worth hundreds to thousands of dollars? Hardly. So far Riviera is the only restricted resort. So one rents their points and rents points to stay there. As long as Chapek is in there will be NO real perks for direct. What current perks there are are highly overrated.