$245 for BCV and $210 for BWV... are not "rational" prices with only 20 years left on those contracts. Even if you maximized the use of every purchased point, you'd be unlikely to save any significant money.
Here is the thing with supply/demand of sold-out resorts: There is always healthy supply on the re-sale market. So Disney is in complete control over the "direct" supply by use of the ROFR. Any time they want, they can pick up a BCV contract, currently for $140 for less. While "flipping" has some costs, they can still easily turn a nice profit even if they were selling that contract for $180-$190, or even less.
I also don't believe most of those prices are reflective of real demand: Yes, BCV is in demand. But I suspect the "direct purchase" demand for BCV is quite low at $245.. and would remain quite low at $225 or $205.
So what remains.... Disney is basically saying that BCV and BWV are extremely limited supply -- Disney doesn't really intend to be active on the ROFR market. For the small number of irrational buyers, willing to pay $245 for a resort with only 20 years left, Disney will be happy to accommodate you and grab a huge profit margin on the flip.
But rational buyers are being pushed towards the newer resorts that aren't sold out yet.
Of course, for Disney, there is the "danger" that rational buyers will also be pushed into the resale market. As we get closer to 2042, those resale prices will really fall.
And right now, there are very few blue card perks even in effect, to push people towards direct.
So likely Disney is expecting the recent resale restrictions to discourage more and more people from resorting to resale. (For now, if you buy re-sale, you can't use Riviera... But soon, it will be that you won't be able to sue Riviera or the new DL tower... and more exclusions will be added to the list over time).
Here is the thing with supply/demand of sold-out resorts: There is always healthy supply on the re-sale market. So Disney is in complete control over the "direct" supply by use of the ROFR. Any time they want, they can pick up a BCV contract, currently for $140 for less. While "flipping" has some costs, they can still easily turn a nice profit even if they were selling that contract for $180-$190, or even less.
I also don't believe most of those prices are reflective of real demand: Yes, BCV is in demand. But I suspect the "direct purchase" demand for BCV is quite low at $245.. and would remain quite low at $225 or $205.
So what remains.... Disney is basically saying that BCV and BWV are extremely limited supply -- Disney doesn't really intend to be active on the ROFR market. For the small number of irrational buyers, willing to pay $245 for a resort with only 20 years left, Disney will be happy to accommodate you and grab a huge profit margin on the flip.
But rational buyers are being pushed towards the newer resorts that aren't sold out yet.
Of course, for Disney, there is the "danger" that rational buyers will also be pushed into the resale market. As we get closer to 2042, those resale prices will really fall.
And right now, there are very few blue card perks even in effect, to push people towards direct.
So likely Disney is expecting the recent resale restrictions to discourage more and more people from resorting to resale. (For now, if you buy re-sale, you can't use Riviera... But soon, it will be that you won't be able to sue Riviera or the new DL tower... and more exclusions will be added to the list over time).