Rumor: Disney Vacation Club Sold-Out Resort Prices on the Rise

$245 for BCV and $210 for BWV... are not "rational" prices with only 20 years left on those contracts. Even if you maximized the use of every purchased point, you'd be unlikely to save any significant money.
Here is the thing with supply/demand of sold-out resorts: There is always healthy supply on the re-sale market. So Disney is in complete control over the "direct" supply by use of the ROFR. Any time they want, they can pick up a BCV contract, currently for $140 for less. While "flipping" has some costs, they can still easily turn a nice profit even if they were selling that contract for $180-$190, or even less.

I also don't believe most of those prices are reflective of real demand: Yes, BCV is in demand. But I suspect the "direct purchase" demand for BCV is quite low at $245.. and would remain quite low at $225 or $205.

So what remains.... Disney is basically saying that BCV and BWV are extremely limited supply -- Disney doesn't really intend to be active on the ROFR market. For the small number of irrational buyers, willing to pay $245 for a resort with only 20 years left, Disney will be happy to accommodate you and grab a huge profit margin on the flip.

But rational buyers are being pushed towards the newer resorts that aren't sold out yet.

Of course, for Disney, there is the "danger" that rational buyers will also be pushed into the resale market. As we get closer to 2042, those resale prices will really fall.
And right now, there are very few blue card perks even in effect, to push people towards direct.
So likely Disney is expecting the recent resale restrictions to discourage more and more people from resorting to resale. (For now, if you buy re-sale, you can't use Riviera... But soon, it will be that you won't be able to sue Riviera or the new DL tower... and more exclusions will be added to the list over time).
 
$245 for BCV and $210 for BWV... are not "rational" prices with only 20 years left on those contracts. Even if you maximized the use of every purchased point, you'd be unlikely to save any significant money.
Here is the thing with supply/demand of sold-out resorts: There is always healthy supply on the re-sale market. So Disney is in complete control over the "direct" supply by use of the ROFR. Any time they want, they can pick up a BCV contract, currently for $140 for less. While "flipping" has some costs, they can still easily turn a nice profit even if they were selling that contract for $180-$190, or even less.

I also don't believe most of those prices are reflective of real demand: Yes, BCV is in demand. But I suspect the "direct purchase" demand for BCV is quite low at $245.. and would remain quite low at $225 or $205.

So what remains.... Disney is basically saying that BCV and BWV are extremely limited supply -- Disney doesn't really intend to be active on the ROFR market. For the small number of irrational buyers, willing to pay $245 for a resort with only 20 years left, Disney will be happy to accommodate you and grab a huge profit margin on the flip.

But rational buyers are being pushed towards the newer resorts that aren't sold out yet.

Of course, for Disney, there is the "danger" that rational buyers will also be pushed into the resale market. As we get closer to 2042, those resale prices will really fall.
And right now, there are very few blue card perks even in effect, to push people towards direct.
So likely Disney is expecting the recent resale restrictions to discourage more and more people from resorting to resale. (For now, if you buy re-sale, you can't use Riviera... But soon, it will be that you won't be able to sue Riviera or the new DL tower... and more exclusions will be added to the list over time).
What’s truly amazing is that the cash price for BW is higher than for BC most days. So when you isolate to just BCV it’s like pure insanity.
 
It’s cheaper to rent points than buy direct!

That’s the thing. Doesn’t matter how great the pool is, the best location, etc.
It’s simple math. You can rent points for $18-21 per point.

At $245 for just 20 years — that’s $12.25 per point per year. (Even more if you consider time value of money). $7.44 in annual dues— that’s $19.69.

No reason to buy direct instead of just renting points.
 
That’s the thing. Doesn’t matter how great the pool is, the best location, etc.
It’s simple math. You can rent points for $18-21 per point.

At $245 for just 20 years — that’s $12.25 per point per year. (Even more if you consider time value of money). $7.44 in annual dues— that’s $19.69.

No reason to buy direct instead of just renting points.
If you bought today you’d get 21 years of points but yes it’s insane.
 
That’s the thing. Doesn’t matter how great the pool is, the best location, etc.
It’s simple math. You can rent points for $18-21 per point.

At $245 for just 20 years — that’s $12.25 per point per year. (Even more if you consider time value of money). $7.44 in annual dues— that’s $19.69.

No reason to buy direct instead of just renting points.

That assumes one holds through the length of contract though. Another way to look at is is it costs $20/pt to rent, - $8 in dues = $12 difference to own. As long as you use it more than your depreciation, then it would make sense to buy it IF you let go of it before expiration at a reasonable price.

My AKV contract as an example lost 35% of it's value in one year ($176 direct vs $116 resale). Assuming I can resell it at the average of $116 in 5 years, I would breakeven on the spread if I used it for 5 years instead of renting. Less if the resale price climbs, more if the resale price drops.

It's possible, but of course it doesn't touch resale at all. My PVB contract's value is up 20% and CCV is up 10% based on avg selling prices and I can only assume these price hikes will eventually help support at least the PVB value. With resale there are many who have used their contracts while making money on it at the same time.
 
That assumes one holds through the length of contract though. Another way to look at is is it costs $20/pt to rent, - $8 in dues = $12 difference to own. As long as you use it more than your depreciation, then it would make sense to buy it IF you let go of it before expiration at a reasonable price.

My AKV contract as an example lost 35% of it's value in one year ($176 direct vs $116 resale). Assuming I can resell it at the average of $116 in 5 years, I would breakeven on the spread if I used it for 5 years instead of renting. Less if the resale price climbs, more if the resale price drops.

It's possible, but of course it doesn't touch resale at all. My PVB contract's value is up 20% and CCV is up 10% based on avg selling prices and I can only assume these price hikes will eventually help support at least the PVB value. With resale there are many who have used their contracts while making money on it at the same time.

But resale value will depreciate very quickly as you get closer to 2042.
Depreciation will accelerate quickly as you get closer to the point where the contract will truly have no value.
You can’t compare it to contracts with 30-40 years left.

Let’s say you buy that BCV for $245 per point now, and keep it for 10 years.

So your paid $310 per point, including annual dues, over 10 years. Including closing costs, more like $315 per point.

With only 10-11 years left in 2031, you’d be lucky to get $100 per point.

So you paid a net $215 per point... $21.50 per year. When you can typically rent points for $20 or less.

So no... don’t expect resale to save you.
 
I think it’s obvious what Disney’s intentions are with BWV and BCV. Let the resorts expire, refresh both and resell directly. If people are willing to pay in the 130-150’s for 20yrs on resale, they’d pay up for a full life contract of either resort. I wouldn’t see either having a problem selling out. I’d be willing to bet if they both expired tomorrow and we’re new resorts selling directly, they’d sell out before RIV which has been on market for a couple years now. The proximity alone to EP and HS is what really sells those properties.

Yes, BCV might have the best pool on property, but AKV and CCV’s pools would be runners up and putting either of the those pools where SAB is would equally entice people to buy there if their main reason were the pool. To be able to walk to either EP or HS trumps any other amenities IMO.
 
I think it’s obvious what Disney’s intentions are with BWV and BCV. Let the resorts expire, refresh both and resell directly. If people are willing to pay in the 130-150’s for 20yrs on resale, they’d pay up for a full life contract of either resort. I wouldn’t see either having a problem selling out. I’d be willing to bet if they both expired tomorrow and we’re new resorts selling directly, they’d sell out before RIV which has been on market for a couple years now. The proximity alone to EP and HS is what really sells those properties.

Yes, BCV might have the best pool on property, but AKV and CCV’s pools would be runners up and putting either of the those pools where SAB is would equally entice people to buy there if their main reason were the pool. To be able to walk to either EP or HS trumps any other amenities IMO.

The location value is extremely high, but still comes down to price.

If a “new” BCV/BWV was priced the same as Riviera, likely the BCV/BWV would sell out faster. If BCV/BWV was priced at double the price, probably not.
 
But resale value will depreciate very quickly as you get closer to 2042.
Depreciation will accelerate quickly as you get closer to the point where the contract will truly have no value.
You can’t compare it to contracts with 30-40 years left.

Let’s say you buy that BCV for $245 per point now, and keep it for 10 years.

So your paid $310 per point, including annual dues, over 10 years. Including closing costs, more like $315 per point.

With only 10-11 years left in 2031, you’d be lucky to get $100 per point.

So you paid a net $215 per point... $21.50 per year. When you can typically rent points for $20 or less.

So no... don’t expect resale to save you.

For the 2042's yes. We're past the half life of the contract at this point and I'll even include AKV in that bucket despite being further out.

And to be clear I'm not arguing for those only. Just in general of buying direct may not be as terrible in some situations. So I would argue that contracts such as VGF, PVB, CCV and especially Rivera with it's subsidies would be able to recoup a good amount of that back in the next 20 years between use and resale before it hits contract half life. IIRC I believe the average resale prices for each one of those is currently selling above what the initial offerings were w/ incentives.
 
For the 2042's yes. We're past the half life of the contract at this point and I'll even include AKV in that bucket despite being further out.

And to be clear I'm not arguing for those only. Just in general of buying direct may not be as terrible in some situations. So I would argue that contracts such as VGF, PVB, CCV and especially Rivera with it's subsidies would be able to recoup a good amount of that back in the next 20 years between use and resale before it hits contract half life. IIRC I believe the average resale prices for each one of those is currently selling above what the initial offerings were w/ incentives.

I bought direct. Nothing wrong with buying direct. Over 40+ years, the difference between buying direct vs resale is pretty minimal.

But specifically as to the sold-out 2042 resort pricing.. direct purchase just doesn’t make financial sense.
 
We bought direct contracts at BCV and BWV earlier this year to get our 100 point blue card before the change. The sales guide wasn't pleased and really tried to sell us RIV or basically anything else, so I'm not surprised about this change. I'm expecting at this point that they'll only sell it direct for five more years since there are going to be so few years left in the contract.

Our primary reason for paying the extra was for blue card perks and to have first bite at buying again there or extending the contract. So I understand why people would pay more for these if RIV doesn't fit the bill. That being said, with this price increase I'm not sure we would of bought again even though we are happy with our decision. This price increase is just over the top and is just too expensive for the years remaining.
 
What’s truly amazing is that the cash price for BW is higher than for BC most days. So when you isolate to just BCV it’s like pure insanity.
Anyone know who DVC targeted buyers are? I mean the economy is booming for some and busted for others. The ones likely to buy maybe in a world of hurt.
 
Shocked that SSR isn’t on the list.

Well not sure we have an official final list do we? If it's not might just be Disney keeping price low to be able to keep flipping SSR off the resale market since it's the most likely resort to tank if they stop buying back.

Of course, for Disney, there is the "danger" that rational buyers will also be pushed into the resale market. As we get closer to 2042, those resale prices will really fall.

It won't really matter that much the math is already skewed before any price increases. Also Disney will plan on getting people to rebuy in direct after expiration that were newer resale buyers.

Also at a certain point if prices tank people might be more likely to just rent out their points instead of selling.
 
Well not sure we have an official final list do we? If it's not might just be Disney keeping price low to be able to keep flipping SSR off the resale market since it's the most likely resort to tank if they stop buying back.



It won't really matter that much the math is already skewed before any price increases. Also Disney will plan on getting people to rebuy in direct after expiration that were newer resale buyers.

Also at a certain point if prices tank people might be more likely to just rent out their points instead of selling.
I dont think SSR is going to "tank" anytime soon.
 
I dont think SSR is going to "tank" anytime soon.

If Disney completely stopped buying back contracts it absolutely would over the course of the next 12-24 months. Disney has been buying back a bunch of contracts.

Just look at a single reseller (which is one of the larger ones) and you will see between August to November:
Jan-July: 417 Sent / 1 ROFR Claimed
Aug-Nov: 284 Sent / 84 ROFR Claimed

You have almost a $10/point jump in price based on what Disney is taking back and SSR had not flattened it was still decreasing when ROFR started kicking in.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-july-20-report/https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-november-20-report/
 
I was very surprised to see the jump in cost for direct purchase.
I can't imagine paying that much with only roughly 23 years left.
I think it makes buying resale look like a steal, even if you lose the direct benefits.
 

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