This storm in the Gulf… now Hurricane Idalia

[deannaf87]

What are the chances the parks will close?

Could go either way depending on where it hits. Right now it is looking more like it will hit Tallahassee area but that can def change. Models range from tropical storm to Cat 4 hurricane currently, so there is just no telling. I bet by tomorrow evening it will be a little clearer.

 

[2vets]

I think they closed it last year due to the difficulty probably getting the cast back and forth in tropical storm conditions and because the portion where they have an "excursion" to Batuu would be impacted. The statement last year said they cancelled because of the impact on the guest experience.

That makes sense. Such a CM-heavy resort experience.

What are the chances the parks will close?

Pfft. It’s not even a named storm yet. It hasn’t moved, though NHC now gives it a 90% chance of development in 48 hours. No way to know. Others may be familiar with historical closures and when they’re more likely. I know there have been blog posts about it, so google might help.

 

[deannaf87]

That makes sense. Such a CM-heavy resort experience.

Pfft. It’s not even a named storm yet. It hasn’t moved, though NHC now gives it a 90% chance of development in 48 hours. No way to know. Others may be familiar with historical closures and when they’re more likely. I know there have been blog posts about it, so google might help.

I'd be curious to know how many times (if ever) a storm that hit the panhandle of Florida caused the parks to close.

 

[2vets]

I'd be curious to know how many times (if ever) a storm that hit the panhandle of Florida caused the parks to close.

There are multiple models. Some of them track farther east. There was at least one this morning that was very similar to Ian (it was an outlier, thankfully). I don’t think it’s worth speculating until it starts moving.

 

[deannaf87]

So I did some surface level research and the only storm I found that hit panhandle area and closed WDW was Elena in 1985. Parks closed at 5pm and opened the next day. The storm made landfall in Mississippi but was a big one (size wise). Current models for Invest 93L are not showing it to be nearly that large.

 

[deannaf87]

There are multiple models. Some of them track farther east. There was at least one this morning that was very similar to Ian (it was an outlier, thankfully). I don’t think it’s worth speculating until it starts moving.

Speculating is my fav hobby though.

 

[deannaf87]

Latest spaghetti model.

 

[2vets]

View attachment 788198
Latest spaghetti model.

I was just screenshotting that - that’s Panama City/Tallahassee-centric, right? I came from NE FL, it’s awful, but I’m really unfamiliar with the panhandle. Jeez, every time I think about moving back to FL, I just get an ulcer thinking about hurricane season. Then again, we just had a tropical storm impact San Diego.

 

[deannaf87]

I was just screenshotting that - that’s Panama City/Tallahassee-centric, right? I came from NE FL, it’s awful, but I’m really unfamiliar with the panhandle. Jeez, every time I think about moving back to FL, I just get an ulcer thinking about hurricane season. Then again, we just had a tropical storm impact San Diego.

Yes - Tallahassee is basically right where most of the lines are converging on landfall. Panama City a bit to the west (right around the red and orange line).

 

[shosh1530]

If the storm does track more easterly making landfall in the panhandle, would it still likely cause flight disruptions on Wednesday for MCO? We are flying from Arizona (with a stop in Dallas) and it seems like it would be hard go around a big storm (but I know really nothing about hurricanes).

I've been looking at flight options all morning. We can move to Monday but it basically doubles our costs.

 

[deannaf87]

If the storm does track more easterly making landfall in the panhandle, would it still likely cause flight disruptions on Wednesday for MCO? We are flying from Arizona (with a stop in Dallas) and it seems like it would be hard go around a big storm (but I know really nothing about hurricanes).

I've been looking at flight options all morning. We can move to Monday but it basically doubles our costs.

There could definitely still be outer bands affecting MCO. What time is your flight on Wednesday?

 

[fla4fun]

If the storm does track more easterly making landfall in the panhandle, would it still likely cause flight disruptions on Wednesday for MCO? We are flying from Arizona (with a stop in Dallas) and it seems like it would be hard go around a big storm (but I know really nothing about hurricanes).

I've been looking at flight options all morning. We can move to Monday but it basically doubles our costs.

If there is landfall in the panhandle, the impact on MCO should be minimal. Perhaps there might be occasional closures if a storm band goes right over the airport, but temporarily halting flights due to a thunderstorm is normal here in the summer.

At this point, it is all just wait and see. Our local weather said at noon that we may not get a good idea of the track and severity until Monday, depending on how long it hangs out over the Yucatan. It’s going to be a very last minute forecast, without a lot of time to evacuate, if necessary.

 

[shosh1530]

There could definitely still be outer bands affecting MCO. What time is your flight on Wednesday?

We are supposed to land at 5:15 pm. If we switch flights to Monday we could get in by 7 pm.

 

[OKW Lover]

The potential tropical depression seems to be stalled off the coast of Mexico near the Yucatan Peninsula. Until it begins moving again it's going to be very difficult to forecast its path.

 

[georgina]

I am a worrier, high anxiety person, and am refusing to worry this far ahead. It's too soon. I land at MCO at 8 AM on Wednesday (hopefully). Have to watch grandson Tuesday evening so can't go early, have a non-cancellable DVC rental so not planning to go late. I am basically burying my head in the sand, with a few peeks out here & there.

 

[john7994]

 

[shosh1530]

It is now officially Tropical Depression Ten, expected to be a tropical storm by tomorrow.

 

[dachsie]

We are supposed to land at 5:15 pm. If we switch flights to Monday we could get in by 7 pm.

The latest forecast said it would be in Georgia by 1pm so your 5:15 flight should be ok i would think

 

[2vets]

We are supposed to land at 5:15 pm. If we switch flights to Monday we could get in by 7 pm.

I moved my Tues arrival to Mon. Also coming from the West, similar concerns about (at least) flight paths. And I figured it would be a far more pleasant in-air experience Monday. Good luck making a call.

 

[shosh1530]

I moved my Tues arrival to Mon. Also coming from the West, similar concerns about (at least) flight paths. And I figured it would be a far more pleasant in-air experience Monday. Good luck making a call.

Yep. I'm a nervous flyer to begin with and don't relish the idea of flying anywhere near a tropical storm or hurricane.

We went ahead and moved our flight to Monday. I'm sure this will guarantee that our original flight will make it on time just fine and I can kick myself over the money wasted. At least we are now flying from our home town rather than driving two hours to begin our journey.

Now to go cancel/reschedule a bunch of other park plans!