Winter/Spring 2019 Training: Part 2
So a few weeks ago I presented my training schedule from January through April (
here). So since then, I've been running training load calculations to try and forecast where I'll be in certain weeks (
here). I then took all the information I've gathered over the last few weeks and instead of forecasting by weeks I was able to come up with a rough idea of a daily forecasting. The goal was to create a training plan that was balanced using proper run fundamentals and mesh it with the training load calculations from biking and 80DO. The hope was to create a training plan where I'd be in the "optimal" training zone for about 60-70% of the time between now and the May 25th Brat Fest 5k (and June 15th Hot2Trot HM). The plan from April 15th through June 15th is written, but since I don't know where my fitness is the timing of it won't make sense yet. I've got to find out my fitness relative pacing over the next few months, and then I can update that portion of the plan that actually has real workouts in it.
So let's start with what I've done to this point to get where I am:
10/7/18 - Chicago Marathon (last run)
10/10/18 through 11/24/18 - Indoor Biking on simple bike trainer
11/17/18 - Start 21 Day Fix
11/25/18 - Indoor Biking on Wahoo Kickr Core and began structured cycling workouts/training plan
12/18/18 - Start 80 Day Obsession
So that has yielded this training load graph.
The TrainerRoad workouts in combination with 80DO have meshed well using training load calculations. The 5 weeks of building/peaking in TrainerRoad is almost always in "optimal" and then the recovery week + 1st week of next cycle pushes me down into "neutral". I spent about 73% of the time from 11/25/18 through 2/17/19 (the TrainerRoad timeframe) in "optimal" training. So the goal of developing the next step of training was to emulate that while sticking to my running fundamentals.
Here's the big picture from the last two years. As you can see, I'm on the precipice of moving into a new training load area. But since cycling is far less demanding/damaging then running, and since cycling training loads can be much higher, than this kind of makes sense. High level cyclists are in the CTL (Fitness) range of 105-120. Even a moderate cyclist is in the 85-90 CTL area. Whereas, the marathon training plan for a sub-3 written in CTL seemed to suggest the peak was closer to 70-75 for that plan. This jives as well with the Selier paper I read from a while back which I believe stated elite runners do about 15 hours of running per week in training, whereas elite cyclists do 25-30 hours of cycling per week.
For the first 8 weeks of running, I'm only doing easy running with some strides mixed in. Since I've got little idea where my fitness is, then I'm going to maintain focus on effort, but more so my HR. I've scoured over my HR data since I got a HRM in Fall 2015. I've settled on the idea that my maxHR is somewhere around 172-177. But when I look at the ranges, the effort lines up better with 172, than it does 177. Thus, my goal is to keep my HR under 130 bpm for all easy runs (excluding when the strides occur).
Here are the last three weeks of training.
Just around 11-11.5 hours of training. The TSS has averaged 81.1, 84.7, and 63.1 in the last three weeks. I've been tracking my daily forecast and the actual data, and they're close. Not perfect, but very close. But there's going to be small differences based on the 80DO workouts and whether I nailed the bike 100%. Moving forward the run TSS will be another moving target of it's own.
Here are the next three weeks of training. Steph is gone on another work trip later this week so I had to play with the schedule a bit. Unfortunately we're scheduled for another 2-5 inches of snow on Wednesday, so that run may become an equal bike day. That remains to be seen. These three weeks will be 12.75-13.5 hours of training. But the intensity is being kept relatively low at the outset. The cycling starts the Build Phase of training. Everything since November has been in the Base Phase. It's modeled after the "Short Power - Mid Level" plan with the idea that it should improve my cycling VO2max prior to entering April's run VO2max training. Two plans to hopefully achieve a similar goal.
The three weeks after that have a recovery week, a rebuild week, and then start to get back into peak work.
Originally, I planned to take a week off of 80DO between each time I restarted it. But after running the numbers, the removal of it didn't make sense from a timing perspective anymore. So instead, we'll do a "Little Obsessed" which is a slightly lesser load for a week, and then jump back in from the beginning. The plan is since Phase 1 is simpler than Phase 2/3, that I'll likely move up in weights. But we'll see what happens when the time comes. Steph's cousin is visiting in mid-March, but I don't anticipate any needs for changes.
Lastly, the plan wraps up in April.
Peaking at just around 14 hours for the last three weeks of training with the extra 3 hours from what I'm doing now coming from running (as the biking and 80DO are roughly the same as before). Then starting April 15th is the real run workouts.
Here's the data in stress score form (date, day, daily stress, CTL, ATL, Form, date, form):
The last 85 days have had a ramp rate (amount of increase of training load from one week to the next) around 3-4 (seen in red numbers). On the recovery weeks, it tends to hold steady or even go slightly negative. So the goal was to emulate that same ramp rate which seemed to be tolerable thus far. Additionally, the total time spent in optimal (-10) was at 63% and 71% of the time was spent at -9 or lower (going through May 25th). So there are quite a few fringe days, but I'd rather err just on the side of training slightly too low than end up on the other end of the spectrum with too much.
And here it is graphically:
So that's the plan at the moment. Tomorrow's run will mark 135 days since I last ran (or about 19 weeks). Now starts the process of hopefully rebuilding old fitness, and possibly pushing forward with new gains.