When Will the US Reach 100,000 COVID deaths?

[BuckeyeBama]

Two part answer - As a part of this wave - never - I don't think it will get near 100k. But we will eventually hit that number if the virus is not wiped out as it will recycle in our population just like other coronavirus variants have - hopefully years from now.

 

[spiders]

Your use of the pejorative is noted. But why stoop so low? As I have said before:
Fear>behavior modification>better health outcomes
In this case, I am afraid so I take precautions which are considered normal. But putting numbers to the reality is a way of sobering people up to the fact that we are up against something which is truly horrific. I have seen the other way around on the disboards. Downplaying, minimizing, lack of empathy.

I am not downplaying, minimizing or showing a lack of empathy. The number of cases appears to be going down but you think the death toll is going to increase 5x.

Maybe it will, maybe it won’t but you are intentionally asking for an answer to a hypothetical question to a group of people who are neither doctors nor scientists...hence, why I said you’re fear mongering.

 

[RamblingMad]

We will have a 100 thousand deaths. Flattening the curve spreads those deaths over a longer period of time, so that our healthcare system can keep up. It doesn’t stop the virus. We need community herd immunity or a vaccine to do that.

 

[hopemax]

In Europe, attempts to count how many people have died at home, care facilities or anywhere without official test results, have resulted in way higher than currently reported numbers. Same for NY, and other places that admit people have died but weren't tested.

We will have 100,000 deaths by the time the graphs max out in July, but the official count will not say it. It will only be after all the deaths are tallied and compared to previous averages that they will be revised upwards.

 

[JimMIA]

We will have a 100 thousand deaths. Flattening the curve spreads those deaths over a longer period of time, so that our healthcare system can keep up. It doesn’t stop the virus. We need community herd immunity or a vaccine to do that.

I wouldn't put a whole lot of faith in "herd immunity."

First of all, scientists haven't even established that exposure to the virus creates immunity. That's an assumption people make, but there have been numerous cases where people have been sick, got better, and then got sick again.

Also, exposure to the virus creates antibodies to the virus, but the levels of those antibodies vary hugely from patient to patient. It is not yet known what level of antibody, if any, creates immunity. There have been no studies -- much less proof -- that the antibodies give immunity to this particular virus.

We'll have a vaccine long before we'll achieve "herd immunity."

 

[kdonnel]

As long as we maintain social distancing we should hit 60k plus at the beginning of June.

If however we reopen things before there is a vaccine or herd immunity, I can see the US exceeding 100k deaths well before year end.

 

[Farro]

As long as we maintain social distancing we should hit 60k plus at the beginning of June.

If however we reopen things before there is a vaccine or herd immunity, I can see the US exceeding 100k deaths well before year end.

As long as we don't overwhelm hospital systems - as said previously by a poster, we will definitely hit 100,000 at some point w/out a vaccine. But if it's spread out, what's happening today at (some) hospitals won't happen. Even with gradual reopening.

 

[shelemm]

What we have here are the latest talking points:

'Fear-mongering'
'You are actually enjoying this.'
'The numbers are getting better!'

But just because they are getting better, doesn't mean you subtract deaths. Not adding as fast, hence the original question!!!

The numbers are getting better because we have done what epidemiologists said we should do after our anemic reaction to the crisis.

Talking/warning people about realistic numbers should be fearful, but it is only mongering if it doesn't have a rational basis.

I find it interesting that the ultimate talking point is silence. No empathy shown for those ER doctors and nurses who don't have enough medical supplies. Silence about the lack of testing and tracing. The need for ventilators.

Remember when COVID was scoffed at because it was not as deadly as the flu? Why? Number of deaths. So now that things are getting scarier, number of deaths is now 'only a number' There is now, suddenly, so much more to understand. I see how this works now.

 

[shelemm]

As long as we don't overwhelm hospital systems - as said previously by a poster, we will definitely hit 100,000 at some point w/out a vaccine. But if it's spread out, what's happening today at (some) hospitals won't happen. Even with gradual reopening.

You are sweet for saying that, I sure do hope you're right. But I would feel a lot better with testing and tracing at the levels we see in Korea and distribution and production of medical supplies on a massive, national level.

 

[Farro]

What we have here are the latest talking points:

'Fear-mongering'
'You are actually enjoying this.'
'The numbers are getting better!'

But just because they are getting better, doesn't mean you subtract deaths. Not adding as fast, hence the original question!!!

The numbers are getting better because we have done what epidemiologists said we should do after our anemic reaction to the crisis.

Talking/warning people about realistic numbers should be fearful, but it is only mongering if it doesn't have a rational basis.

I find it interesting that the ultimate talking point is silence. No empathy shown for those ER doctors and nurses who don't have enough medical supplies. Silence about the lack of testing and tracing. The need for ventilators.

Remember when COVID was scoffed at because it was not as deadly as the flu? Why? Number of deaths. So now that things are getting scarier, number of deaths is now 'only a number' There is now, suddenly, so much more to understand. I see how this works now.

There are PLENTY of us talking about the bolded on these boards.

I won't even touch the comment about no empathy...

 

[sam_gordon]

I wouldn't put a whole lot of faith in "herd immunity."

First of all, scientists haven't even established that exposure to the virus creates immunity. That's an assumption people make, but there have been numerous cases where people have been sick, got better, and then got sick again.

Also, exposure to the virus creates antibodies to the virus, but the levels of those antibodies vary hugely from patient to patient. It is not yet known what level of antibody, if any, creates immunity. There have been no studies -- much less proof -- that the antibodies give immunity to this particular virus.

We'll have a vaccine long before we'll achieve "herd immunity."

If you can't create immunity, then a vaccine won't work either, and we'll be in this lockdown mode for decades to come.

 

[MillauFr]

The number of deaths from Corona is project to drop to zero per day in mid May. It was down to 8 per day as of yesterday and dropping.

 

[godisney14]

The number of deaths from Corona is project to drop to zero per day in mid May. It was down to 8 per day as of yesterday and dropping.

You do realize that’s from a mathematical model and not realistic.

 

[godisney14]

Besides deaths, there’s also the lesser talked about ailments to different organs that many of the hospitalized patients (after recovery from COVID complications) will permanently or semi-permanently suffer. A recovery from hospitalization just means you’re not dead.

 

[chickapin parterre]

.........a theory out there is that a spread from the east coast and a spread from California will meet somewhere in the midwest and peak, then spread back to the major hot spots....folks in the midwest and here in deserts do not believe it is going to happen....we are geologically isolated ...after what I saw in Yuma Wal-mart yesterday....there is no flu. Imperial valley, California is rising really fast in relationship to the population of the area, the problem is families coming over from the LA basin to stay with families in the imperical valley and mexico. This behavior is why it is still afar.

 

[godisney14]

.........a theory out there is that a spread from the east coast and a spread from California will meet somewhere in the midwest and peak

I don’t think that’s a theory. That a fact.

Once restrictions are loosened and travel starts occurring more frequently cross state borders, the virus will spread.

 

[RamblingMad]

I wouldn't put a whole lot of faith in "herd immunity."

First of all, scientists haven't even established that exposure to the virus creates immunity. That's an assumption people make, but there have been numerous cases where people have been sick, got better, and then got sick again.

Also, exposure to the virus creates antibodies to the virus, but the levels of those antibodies vary hugely from patient to patient. It is not yet known what level of antibody, if any, creates immunity. There have been no studies -- much less proof -- that the antibodies give immunity to this particular virus.

We'll have a vaccine long before we'll achieve "herd immunity."

There was a study done with monkeys that I posted well over a week ago that showed they gained immunity.

 

[JimMIA]

If you can't create immunity, then a vaccine won't work either, and we'll be in this lockdown mode for decades to come.

Herd immunity depends on the body's ability to generate antibodies to the virus, but there is no research that shows that covid-19 antibodies prevent the disease. If antibodies do NOT protect the herd, there is no herd immunity.

More important, antibodies generated in response to exposure are not the only way to create immunity. If they were, obviously we would have just used antibodies and had a vaccine long ago.

 

[Farro]

.........a theory out there is that a spread from the east coast and a spread from California will meet somewhere in the midwest and peak, then spread back to the major hot spots....folks in the midwest and here in deserts do not believe it is going to happen....we are geologically isolated ...after what I saw in Yuma Wal-mart yesterday....there is no flu. Imperial valley, California is rising really fast in relationship to the population of the area, the problem is families coming over from the LA basin to stay with families in the imperical valley and mexico. This behavior is why it is still afar.

I'm pretty sure Detroit and Chicago realize it's happening.

 

[JimMIA]

There was a study done with monkeys that I posted well over a week ago that showed they gained immunity.

I haven't seen that study, but if it applies to humans, it would certainly be helpful.