When Will the US Reach 100,000 COVID deaths?

[MillauFr]

You do realize that’s from a mathematical model and not realistic.

I should have mentioned this was the projections for Washington State.

You are right. Based on their constant overestimation of the number of deaths the models are flawed. The number of deaths will be down to zero per day here sooner than May 16.

 

[RamblingMad]

I should have mentioned this was the projections for Washington State.

You are right. Based on their constant overestimation of the number of deaths the models are flawed. The number of deaths will be down to zero per day here sooner than May 16.

They won’t go down to zero. They will trickle in as this virus starts to spread again once everything is open again.

 

[RamblingMad]

I haven't seen that study, but if it applies to humans, it would certainly be helpful.

It does. It’s early. But it’s promising. I’m trying to have some optimism. I have to fill the glass at least half full from somewhere.

 

[JimMIA]

Florida appears to be peaked and starting to decline in new cases, but deaths lag new cases and are still increasing.

My county has the most cases and deaths in the state. A few days ago, we had no reported deaths for one day, but in the last two days we've had 25 or more.

 

[MillauFr]

They won’t go down to zero. They will trickle in as this virus starts to spread again once everything is open again.

But the experts who model this for a living say it will go to zero.

 

[godisney14]

There was a study done with monkeys that I posted well over a week ago that showed they gained immunity.

Just want to note that there are numerous and countless examples of how primates and humans differ when it comes to medical research.

I haven’t read your prior post regarding the study you mention, but I assume it is the one from China, where they did an experiment with 4 monkeys. It is a promising study, but as someone who’s worked in the labs before, some of my thoughts before making any conclusions from it would be:
1. It’s not a peer-reviewed article
2. Were the same exact strains of the virus used to reinfect the same exact monkeys?
3. Viral load clearance from the test monkeys was faster than what is observed in human patients.
4. Only 2 of the 4 monkeys were re-exposed, they presented different reactions upon reinfection, and one was euthanized just 5 days after re-exposure. So, we only really have 1 monkey to make any conclusions from past the study point.
5. No long-term follow-up to see how long the 1 remaining monkey could be immune for from a future re-exposure.

 

[godisney14]

But the experts who model this for a living say it will go to zero.

What “experts” are you referring to? Have you spoken with an epidemiologist or physician to know whether 0 deaths is a realistic number?

 

[sam_gordon]

Herd immunity depends on the body's ability to generate antibodies to the virus, but there is no research that shows that covid-19 antibodies prevent the disease. If antibodies do NOT protect the herd, there is no herd immunity.

More important, antibodies generated in response to exposure are not the only way to create immunity. If they were, obviously we would have just used antibodies and had a vaccine long ago.

If antibodies don't protect you from it, I'm not convinced a vaccine is a viable solution. That's what I'm saying.

 

[wvjules]

It will never go to zero. That seems like a statistical improbability.

 

[MillauFr]

It will never go to zero. That seems like a statistical improbability.

SARS deaths went to zero. Why wouldn't Covid 19 as well?

 

[MillauFr]

What “experts” are you referring to? Have you spoken with an epidemiologist or physician to know whether 0 deaths is a realistic number?

University of Washington researchers developed the model. They are constantly overestimating the number of deaths so I would be shocked if they are underestimating the numbers now.

 

[Farro]

SARS deaths went to zero. Why wouldn't Covid 19 as well?

SARS was much deadlier and easier to trace and contain. Patients didn't live long with SARS and symptoms were more severe and therefore not able to spread it as easily. Covid people can be out and about and not know they have it.

 

[MillauFr]

If you are into statistics and regression analysis the following article is interesting.

https://covid.idmod.org/data/Physic...ill_needed_to_prevent_COVID-19_resurgence.pdf
Brings back fond memories of my Applied Regression Analysis INDE 595 class taught by Dr. Linda Boyle at the University of Washington.

 

[RamblingMad]

Just want to note that there are numerous and countless examples of how primates and humans differ when it comes to medical research.

I haven’t read your prior post regarding the study you mention, but I assume it is the one from China, where they did an experiment with 4 monkeys. It is a promising study, but as someone who’s worked in the labs before, some of my thoughts before making any conclusions from it would be:
1. It’s not a peer-reviewed article
2. Were the same exact strains of the virus used to reinfect the same exact monkeys?
3. Viral load clearance from the test monkeys was faster than what is observed in human patients.
4. Only 2 of the 4 monkeys were re-exposed, they presented different reactions upon reinfection, and one was euthanized just 5 days after re-exposure. So, we only really have 1 monkey to make any conclusions from past the study point.
5. No long-term follow-up to see how long the 1 remaining monkey could be immune for from a future re-exposure.

It’s the best we have at the moment. This is really new. If we don’t get immunity, then we’re screwed.

 

[godisney14]

It’s the best we have at the moment. This is really new. If we don’t get immunity, then we’re screwed.

As mentioned, we could get a vaccine, which is a higher probability IMO than reaching herd immunity.

We could also get a treatment of some sort either through anti-virals or plasma donations, although these won’t stop someone from becoming infected or hospitalized, just less dead.

 

[godisney14]

SARS deaths went to zero. Why wouldn't Covid 19 as well?

Don’t give up your current job.

SARS is also a coronavirus, but the similarities end there.

 

[MillauFr]

It’s the best we have at the moment. This is really new. If we don’t get immunity, then we’re screwed.

We are not screwed. The biggest problem with the current situation is people will look back in a year and shrug their shoulders. It will be much harder to control the next pandemic because people won't take it seriously enough. If they believe the government and media completely overreacted to Covid 19 situation we are in trouble.

 

[shelemm]

It's the same story as ever. Social distancing while we kickstart a nationally coordinated program of testing/tracing/and distribution of medical supplies and equipment. Then gradual openings. We need(ed) to buy ourselves time until a vaccine is developed.

 

[shelemm]

We are not screwed. The biggest problem with the current situation is people will look back in a year and shrug their shoulders.

Right now I think our biggest problem is that the COVID can't be controlled and is killing people. But I might be misreading the situation.

It's very challenging to claim what lessons people might learn. What lesson did Germany learn from World War 1? I mean, they hardly bothered us since then.

 

[sam_gordon]

It's the same story as ever. Social distancing while we kickstart a nationally coordinated program of testing/tracing/and distribution of medical supplies and equipment. Then gradual openings. We need(ed) to buy ourselves time until a vaccine is developed.

"Same story as ever"? When was the last time we had a world wide pandemic?

How's the "nationally coordinated program of testing/tracing/and distribution of medical supplies and equipment" going?

umm, a vaccine won't be ready until 2021. Have we bought that much time by the lockdown?