Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[BruinEd03]

But, how do they ensure that someone doesn't borrow more to book a stay in those 21 days and then goes in and changes it to later to work around the rule?

People are going to lose points whether its now or in a few years. I agree that if they could find a way to let someone book a short term trip that can’t be changed, itd be nice,

But then you are talking potentially major changes to many rules that may or may not be legal. At least now, the rule is consistent and applies to everyone.

Under 21 days, aren't the points put in holding? I would think that that would be a huge deterrent. I'm sure people could gamble that Disney waives it, but that's a huge risk.

 

[lovethesun12]

They should let members borrow all of their points if the stay is within 21 days. It might get people to add on days at the end or beginning of their stay. This would reduce the impact for most members as the only ones really booking 21 days out are people who already have reservations. Also, with airlines generally allowing flexibility for changing dates this would allow for many to take advantage of this. This can help reduce the pent up points.

These are my thoughts too. What difference would lifting the restriction entirely make? That article makes complete sense to me; I think 2022 will be the year of the point problem.

People outside the USA cannot visit until border restrictions are lifted, which will probably happen when a vaccine is available. So far, best case scenario is it's widely available by spring in the USA, it will be later in Canada (by a few months). But that is too short a time for people who have to book trips far in advance and also want to see how everything unfolds rather than jumping into travel. You will see those people banking points to 2022.

The fact WDW has been laying off so many just makes me think they are also skeptical about 2021. So it just makes sense to me that if attendance is weaker than usual now (I could book a week over Easter in a boardwalk studio) it's time to lift borrowing restrictions until that changes.

 

[Dean]

They should let members borrow all of their points if the stay is within 21 days. It might get people to add on days at the end or beginning of their stay. This would reduce the impact for most members as the only ones really booking 21 days out are people who already have reservations. Also, with airlines generally allowing flexibility for changing dates this would allow for many to take advantage of this. This can help reduce the pent up points.

I also suspect they don't want full capacity at the present time. We're here now and talking to several of the guides I get that sense. Those with points into the future will have opportunities to use them later, those with points that will expire soon, not so much. They could have restricted borrowing completely. I suspect they were trying to strike a balance. But if it's important, I'd talk to member services and if necessary, corporate.

 

[davidl81]

I also suspect they don't want full capacity at the present time. We're here now and talking to several of the guides I get that sense. Those with points into the future will have opportunities to use them later, those with points that will expire soon, not so much. They could have restricted borrowing completely. I suspect they were trying to strike a balance. But if it's important, I'd talk to member services and if necessary, corporate.

I think you are right. They very much do not want full DVC capacity right now. But they have to keep all of the rooms open to book. I would love to see how many points are just being lost right now by people who are less involved than people on this board.

 

[Dean]

I think you are right. They very much do not want full DVC capacity right now. But they have to keep all of the rooms open to book. I would love to see how many points are just being lost right now by people who are less involved than people on this board.

Probably a lot.

 

[E2ME2]

I think you are right. They very much do not want full DVC capacity right now. But they have to keep all of the rooms open to book. I would love to see how many points are just being lost right now by people who are less involved than people on this board.

Probably a lot.

I agree - & thinking that contributed to us getting our wait-list at BWV.
We have never gotten a wait-list request fulfilled before, so it was exciting and we are tickled,
but I hope it did not come at the expense of someone else forfeiting their points.

 

[Dean]

I agree - & thinking that contributed to us getting our wait-list at BWV.
We have never gotten a wait-list request fulfilled before, so it was exciting and we are tickled,
but I hope it did not come at the expense of someone else forfeiting their points.

The reality is that with all the down time and reduced occupancy, that time is lost forever and since DVC is designed to run at full capacity, it is inevitable that a proportional amount of points will be lost. Owning a timeshare is exactly like owning a condo in many ways including the fact that owners pay for the management and upkeep even when closed as well as the fact that downtime cannot be recovered. Thus it's inevitable that a lot of points will be lost and those owners still have to pay the fees on those points as they should.

 

[CarolMN]

The reality is that with all the down time and reduced occupancy, that time is lost forever and since DVC is designed to run at full capacity, it is inevitable that a proportional amount of points will be lost. Owning a timeshare is exactly like owning a condo in many ways including the fact that owners pay for the management and upkeep even when closed as well as the fact that downtime cannot be recovered. Thus it's inevitable that a lot of points will be lost and those owners still have to pay the fees on those points as they should.

We should remember that a lot of the lost points belonged to Disney/DVD. They decided not to use points they owned so that members could have extra time to use banked points from 2018. Some were allowed to bank 2019 points past the usual deadline. They didn't have to do that. Without that decision, many more if us would have lost (will lose ) points.

It's going to take a few years to squeeze out the excess points now in the system. I think we will see it more at the 7th month window as more members book their homes during the priority period. 2022 will e worse than 2021, IMO.

 

[Dean]

We should remember that a lot of the lost points belonged to Disney/DVD. They decided not to use points they owned so that members could have extra time to use banked points from 2018. Some were allowed to bank 2019 points past the usual deadline. They didn't have to do that. Without that decision, many more if us would have (will have ) lost points.

It's going to take a few years to squeeze out the excess points now in the system. I think we will see it more at the 7th month window as more members book their homes during the priority period. 2022 will e worse than 2021, IMO.

On a % basis I suspect the DVD numbers are relatively small but they will certainly help some. I too suspect 2022 will be worse unless they limit banking as well.

 

[CarolMN]

On a % basis I suspect the DVD numbers are relatively small but they will certainly help some. I too suspect 2022 will be worse unless they limit banking as well.

Don't think they will limit banking as that will help to spread the glut over a longer period of time and that would be less onerous to Members than trying to get the glut over with quickly. JMMO. YMMV.

 

[Cabius]

Don't think they will limit banking as that will help to spread the glut over a longer period of time and that would be less onerous to Members than trying to get the glut over with quickly. JMMO. YMMV.

So you’re saying they are trying to Flatten the Curve?

(I’ll see myself out.)

 

[gisele2]

So you’re saying they are trying to Flatten the Curve?

(I’ll see myself out.)

This idea seems to be fashionable at the moment.

 

[Dean]

Don't think they will limit banking as that will help to spread the glut over a longer period of time and that would be less onerous to Members than trying to get the glut over with quickly. JMMO. YMMV.

I doubt they will but it would likely be a good choice. Personally I'm a rip the bandaid off type of person but the reality is that spreading this out likely lessens the total blow when looked at in total.

 

[RoseGold]

Disney/the finance companies will be in much better shape when they can foreclose all these delinquent accounts. They might be over a year delinquent by the time they can foreclose again. That's why ROFR is just out of control right now.

When Disney starts foreclosing again, that's when I'll be looking.

 

[AvidDisReader]

Disney/the finance companies will be in much better shape when they can foreclose all these delinquent accounts. They might be over a year delinquent by the time they can foreclose again. That's why ROFR is just out of control right now.

When Disney starts foreclosing again, that's when I'll be looking.

I am in the mortgage industry for over 35 years. No finance company makes out when they foreclose, it is ALWAYS a losing proposition. So it you think that Disney is some how licking there chops at the thought of getting a lot of properties/contracts back thru foreclosure, you would be totally off target.

 

[MICKIMINI]

Disney/the finance companies will be in much better shape when they can foreclose all these delinquent accounts. They might be over a year delinquent by the time they can foreclose again. That's why ROFR is just out of control right now.

When Disney starts foreclosing again, that's when I'll be looking.

I just have to repeat over and over "I don't NEED anymore DVC"...no more, none! That's what I told DH today, anyway!

 

[RoseGold]

No finance company makes out when they foreclose, it is ALWAYS a losing proposition. So it you think that Disney is some how licking there chops at the thought of getting a lot of properties/contracts back thru foreclosure, you would be totally off target.

I’m not really sure what you are saying. Obviously there are a lot of properties delinquent in dues and/or payments, even if this were a normal economy. You think they don’t want to foreclose and sell them?

Of course foreclosing is cheaper than ROFR, Disney does it all the time. This is one of the reasons ROFR is so high right now. It’s the only source of sold out points right now.

I know when your dues are delinquent, Disney freezes your points, but I’m not sure that’s true for financing. You bet they want to foreclose now.

 

[Dean]

I am in the mortgage industry for over 35 years. No finance company makes out when they foreclose, it is ALWAYS a losing proposition. So it you think that Disney is some how licking there chops at the thought of getting a lot of properties/contracts back thru foreclosure, you would be totally off target.

Can't DVC can foreclose in house now with just admin paperwork and some basic filing?

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

DVC resale market ROFR and price updates for October:
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-october-2020/https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-october-20-report/
ROFR of a BLT contract at $161.

 

[RoseGold]

ROFR of a BLT contract at $161.

IKR? SSR at 103? Crazy.

Hope you got your buys in during the summer slump.