Why are prices going up

[longboard55]

Caribbean is out, even Mexico's nice areas are seeing problems, places like Cabo San Lucas that were considered safe, Europe has had a lot of bad press, Vegas is not family friendly anymore, those cruises are not looking so great with hurricane possibilities and ports that are a mess. Orlando Disneyland and Hawaii will do very well in the next few years. We can add Winnebago which reached new highs

 

[Cyberc1978]

I don’t agree with you on vegas, yes there have been a few incidents, that doesn’t mean it’s not,family friendly. Same goes for Europe, some cities has had their fair share of “problems” that doesn’t mean all of Europe have problems.

Those who want to go to Paris, will go either way. Those who want to go to Vegas will go regardless. That been said the new lands at wdw will draw bigger crowds in the future.

 

[Ben E N]

I think people are thinking a little more long term when they buy into a timeshare. These prices have been climbing since well before the most recent hurricanes, and it is not like people are saying to themselves "Should we commit $20,000+ to Disney World over the next 25+ years, or $2,500 on a trip to Vegas for the weekend?" Most people who are spending cash on a timeshare can afford both. Also, if there was a direct correlation to recent news and Disney World attendance, then they would have had record attendance numbers this past summer, not relatively flat ones compared to previous years.
I believe prices are rising, and will more or less stay this high, for two reasons. One is that the economy is finally pretty strong again, and people feel comfortable spending a good chunk of their savings on leisure. People who are smart enough to buy resale are typically also smart enough to know when it feels safe to commit that much money to a purchase. A better economy means that more people have that sort of money, so demand has gone up.
Also, the strength of Disney World, and DVC, has only been growing over the past few years. The theme park division is becoming a bigger and bigger piece of the Disney corporation's pie, and they are starting to invest some of that back into the parks. This is adding to the excitement of what is to come over the next few years, and beyond. Also, Aulani opened since the most recent economic downturn, and now that more people have more money now, multiple vacation options, even if they are still relatively limited, add to the overall value of DVC.

 

[mustinjourney]

I don't have any specific evidence -- but I'd be willing to bet DVC resale prices track the overall health of the economy. Prices really started moving up once the Dow Jones blew up...that and the announcement of Star wars land, toy story land, tron, etc.... Disney is investing more into the parks than at anytime since animal kingdom was built. This has probably led some owners that were on the fence and normally would have sold by now to hold on to their contracts for a few more years. This has led to lower supply. Meanwhile, with the economy on the up and up and interest in new park features, demand is shifted to the right. So you have a shift to the left in supply and a demand shift to the right -- both of those actions cause a large increase in pricing.

 

[PasadenaJacket]

I don't have any specific evidence -- but I'd be willing to bet DVC resale prices track the overall health of the economy. Prices really started moving up once the Dow Jones blew up...that and the announcement of Star wars land, toy story land, tron, etc.... Disney is investing more into the parks than at anytime since animal kingdom was built. This has probably led some owners that were on the fence and normally would have sold by now to hold on to their contracts for a few more years. This has led to lower supply. Meanwhile, with the economy on the up and up and interest in new park features, demand is shifted to the right. So you have a shift to the left in supply and a demand shift to the right -- both of those actions cause a large increase in pricing.

That's true. If you look at historical prices, you see that DVC prices have averaged about 6% increase per year, with smaller drops during the recession. So, comparable to the S&P 500, but less extremes (smaller overall growth, but less volatility). The graph is actually pretty consistent with the Case Shiller Home Price Index.