Will this end up being the pandemic that cried wolf?

[goodeats]

What is the source of the 0.4% anything I am seeing globally is above 10%

You aren't including mild and asymptomatic cases in the denominator. When you do it drops the fatality rate by a lot. Although I don't believe known deaths/known cases is at 10% globally still. I think it's more like 5%.

 

[LSUmiss]

Much like predicting the weather, predicting the death rate for Covid-19 in the beginning was an inexact science. As more data has poured in the death rate has dropped from 10% to perhaps as low as .04%. Still deadly for sure, especially for those with specific contributing factors but significantly less deadly then first reported.

There is often a resistance to evacuate from hurricanes after multiple bad forecasts that had people evacuate for what turned out to be a minor event. This basically had the entire country in effect evacuate and for a much longer period of time then a hurricane.

Watching the people protest against social distancing in many states and seeing people flock to the Florida beaches has me wondering if the next time in the near future there is another potential pandemic will people comply and social distance?

I hope so we can get back to normal sooner than later. BUT much like the hurricane situation, it’ll make the next one more dangerous b/c ppl will be even more hesitant to comply. That’s what made Katrina so bad. Many ppl had just evacuated for Ivan the year before for what ended up being absolutely nothing. So when Katrina came many ppl refused to leave.

 

[amcnj]

I don’t think we will ever really know what might have been. We can just hope whatever we did was the best way to go.

There was a severe flu back in the late 1960’s, and I don’t recall anything special being done back then, though maybe I was too young to really notice. But I have read that it killed 100,000 in the US and a million worldwide. I don’t know how that virus compares to the current one so far as deadliness or contagiousness. And the world population is over double what it was back then too.

As with any decision, you just make the best choice based on the information at hand and hope it was the correct one.

It’s ironic that if these efforts were the best choices and greatly lessened the effects of the virus, then people will feel it was all unnecessary, and be more inclined to not want to take precautions the next time.

 

[Minniesgal]

You aren't including mild and asymptomatic cases in the denominator. When you do it drops the fatality rate by a lot. Although I don't believe known deaths/known cases is at 10% globally still. I think it's more like 5%.

TO BE HONEST I think the data is too obscure to tell either way. Here in the UK they are simultaneously over counting and under counting deaths and not doing enough testing. It's hard to know what the actual percentage is.,

 

[Jrb1979]

Yes people will cry wolf cause if it didn't affect them it didn't happen. You already see it on this board, they want their Disney magic so bad they keep dismissing how bad this is Its not just about how many dies, its the fact it spreads so quick and how there is now way to treat it.

 

[KayMichigan]

Let's check back on the Florida numbers in a few weeks and see how this reopening of the beaches worked out for them.

Based on what I've been hearing from doctors and nurses in New York, Detroit and other hot spots, if anything people aren't frightened enough by this. They're pleading for people to take this virus seriously because they've seen so many people of all ages and health descriptions die from it and there wasn't anything they could do.

 

[Jrb1979]

Let's check back on the Florida numbers in a few weeks and see how this reopening of the beaches worked out for them.

Based on what I've been hearing from doctors and nurses in New York, Detroit and other hot spots, if anything people aren't frightened enough by this. They're pleading for people to take this virus seriously because they've seen so many people of all ages and health descriptions die from it and there wasn't anything they could do.

I know first hand what this virus does to people. My wife has it. She has a hard time breathing. Doing little things makes her out of breath. The worst part is there is nothing they can do to help her as there is no cure. Why so many think this is no big deal is beyond me.

 

[mjkacmom]

What is the source of the 0.4% anything I am seeing globally is above 10%

In my town there are 300 positive cases and 25 deaths. In 3 days NYC had more deaths than a normal entire flu season. Sheltering in place did what it was supposed to do. Once it gets to an area where people are together it will infect many, overwhelming hospitals. I personally know several who have died recently, one was a 53 year old funeral home director, one was a 60 year old family doctor, both from my town. We are losing those on the front line who otherwise would still be alive.

 

[Heather07438]

Much like predicting the weather, predicting the death rate for Covid-19 in the beginning was an inexact science. As more data has poured in the death rate has dropped from 10% to perhaps as low as .04%. Still deadly for sure, especially for those with specific contributing factors but significantly less deadly then first reported.

There is often a resistance to evacuate from hurricanes after multiple bad forecasts that had people evacuate for what turned out to be a minor event. This basically had the entire country in effect evacuate and for a much longer period of time then a hurricane.

Watching the people protest against social distancing in many states and seeing people flock to the Florida beaches has me wondering if the next time in the near future there is another potential pandemic will people comply and social distance?

I don't think so. Give it a year and look back both stateside and internationally.

Yes. Projections have been inconsistent and wrong. We hope the projections are wrong with over-estimates. That can just as easily be some numbers too low due to insufficient data or bad methods or too low for certain regions.

Judging by first hand accounts from front line workers who recognize this in a league of its own, I don't see this playing out as a false alarm. I cannot find 1 account of a hot zone frontline worker saying the threat was over stated, and these are generally pretty jaded people. This might be what better prepares us for something worse later. We'll know better what calls to make when, how and where. Better data to help everybody understand more clearly. And I may turn into a rainbow aardvark but I think our capability excedes what is needed to do that.

We control the outcome. Working together we make the difference. Let's figure out how to best balance going about life and minimizing risk/spread. Even in the worst hit region, the NY epicenter at best only has 5-10% exposure and possibly as little as under 3%. How many counties in the US have way less than .1%? The population naive to this severe virus is still anywhere from 90-99.9%. It's only the beginning. Our best hope to manage is by controlling the rate of spread while we develop treatment.

 

[okeydokey]

No.

 

[FlightlessDuck]

pan·dem·ic | \ pan-ˈde-mik \
Definition of pandemic
(Entry 1 of 2)
: occurring over a wide geographic area and affecting an exceptionally high proportion of the population


I don't see anywhere that says the death rate has to be high.

 

[queenofthehive]

Almost at 40,000 people have died. Does not seem crying wolf at all....

 

[Forevermarypoppins]

The next big one might happen after WE are long gone. Hopefully the millennials remember and do good. The best news we can have is < projected #'s. Those of us do-gooders will know it was because we did our part and stayed home and socially distanced. Those bears of VERY LITTLE BRAIN will never consider that and believe we were are hoodwinked into believing this "pandemic".

 

[fatmanatee]

Ive mentioned this in other threads but i live down the street from a hospital and i’m literally hearing ambulance sirens right now. It’s been this way for over a month. I think 80 percent of all hospital patients here are for corona and nearly all ventilators are in use (at one point all of them were). If your town is doing ok then but there is no “crying wolf” about this.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Nah cried wolf implies it wasn't a real crisis but rather just repeated calls for one that never panned out. This was a real crisis and there are at least some of the measures taken that appear to have helped, significantly in certain areas..I say some because we don't understand fully if everything worked or was truly necessary....yet that is.

However, should another pandemic occur in our lifetimes and future ones beyond that we can learn more effectively how to handle it all, there will at least be knowledge backed up more. We can learn more effectively what makes more of a difference in closing down and what doesn't make as much of a difference but impacts citizen's lives negatively enough that it's more than needed to be done in the end.

I think that's why you're seeing at least some of the protests (the ones less politically motivated) as some decisions are seemingly so restrictive without much consideration toward negatives and ones that aren't necessarily high risk (certain outdoor activities for one) or ones that don't take into consideration other things (physical blockage of items deemed by so and so as non-essential).

Now will we actually utilize what we learn? Hmm..don't have the full confidence there.

 

[DLgal]

You aren't including mild and asymptomatic cases in the denominator. When you do it drops the fatality rate by a lot. Although I don't believe known deaths/known cases is at 10% globally still. I think it's more like 5%.

The global death rate as of right now (using confirmed cases as the denominator) is 6.9%

Worldometer is a good site to track data in real time.

US death rate is currently 5.3%

 

[RamblingMad]

My county is over 3% for the case fatality rate.

Basically, this thing is killing at the same rate as the flu with everything locked down.

 

[HeatherC]

I know first hand what this virus does to people. My wife has it. She has a hard time breathing. Doing little things makes her out of breath. The worst part is there is nothing they can do to help her as there is no cure. Why so many think this is no big deal is beyond me.

Sending positive thoughts for you and your wife. It is definitely a big deal.

 

[mjkacmom]

My county is over 3% for the case fatality rate.

Basically, this thing is killing at the same rate as the flu with everything locked down.

The flu is .1%

 

[fortwildernessishome]

I know first hand what this virus does to people. My wife has it. She has a hard time breathing. Doing little things makes her out of breath. The worst part is there is nothing they can do to help her as there is no cure. Why so many think this is no big deal is beyond me.

So sorry to read this..... There can be few things as scary as trying to get a good breath...…..prayers and good thoughts to both you and your wife.