WOW DVC Prices !!!

[DonMacGregor]

You are saying renting is tight.

Where do you get this stuff? I said absolutely no such thing. For the third time, I wondered aloud (a regret in hindsight) whether the dramatic drop in rental rates will be felt by those who rent points to subsidize annual dues. Nothing more, nothing less.

In simple terms, someone who relied on renting 100 points at $18 per point to pay $1,800 in annual dues just 6 months ago, would only see $1,200 in rental proceeds based on current rates being offered (based on the board sponsor). Some on here rent 10 times that number to pay their dues.

That's literally all I'm saying.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Where do you get this stuff? I said absolutely no such thing. For the third time, I wondered aloud (a regret in hindsight) whether the dramatic drop in rental rates will be felt by those who rent points to subsidize annual dues. Nothing more, nothing less.

In simple terms, someone who relied on renting 100 points at $18 per point to pay $1,800 in annual dues, would only see $1,200 in rental proceeds based on current rates being offered. Some on here rent 10 times that number to pay their dues.

you might need to explain it a few more times . For what it's worth, I got you the first time.

 

[DonMacGregor]

you might need to explain it a few more times . For what it's worth, I got you the first time.

Thanks, but Rainbows are still better and OOFOS are for Aunties...

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Thanks, but Rainbows are still better and OOFOS are for Aunties...

ok. I WAS on your side, but now it's on like donkey kong! OOFOS are NOT for Aunties! Even though my aunty wears them. So does my MIL. Krap.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Where, exactly, did I say anything about a glut of points? I specifically referenced those individual owners who purchase extra points with the express purpose of renting them out to offset member dues. It's not a hypothetical, it's a stated fact that many have made on Facebook, this forum and others. My post related to the effect on those individuals should the rental market drop, and had nothing to do with their effect on the rental market itself.

I made no mention of professional renters, because those are debated ad nauseum. That is why I specifically said "an area that I don't think gets enough attention".

Look at the post you quoted for a bit of an explanation.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Look at the post you quoted for a bit of an explanation.

I did, that's sorta why I asked. The post I quoted begins with "Where are you seeing this glut of points?". I made no representation that there was a glut of points.

MY original post wondered aloud about what possible effect a declining rental market could have on individuals who purchase additional points for the sole purpose of renting those points out to pay for dues. I didn't ask or comment on professional renters, intermediaries, or Disney, and the post obviously wasn't directed at the vast majority of people who don't rent points, It simply asked for those that DO (whether its 1 or 100 or 1,000), I wonder how it will affect them. That's literally all I wondered about.

I'm not saying any of the other stuff isn't possible, likely, or currently happening, but to start off the response with "Where are you seeing this glut of points" is just right out of left field.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

And that’s why I think it will be a separate association. They’ll need sales of direct points to pay for construction of the new Poly (in addition to marketing and sales costs, of course). They won’t want people buying cheaper resale old Poly to have the same 11 month booking advantage as the new Poly direct buyers. And it will probably be the third DVC resort with resale restrictions (after RIV and VDH), normalizing that as part of DVC too.

I disagree, with the economy changing, placing poly tower under resale restrictions will prolong sales. They are already bleeding, hence the layoffs. They will want to sell as fast as possible.

 

[Sandisw]

I disagree, with the economy changing, placing poly tower under resale restrictions will prolong sales. They are already bleeding, hence the layoffs. They will want to sell as fast as possible.

They can also slow down the build so that sales are farther out. There just isn’t evidence that restrictions have an impact on sales to the degree that DVD will abandon them for thst reasons….proactive pricing and incentives is what will motivate buyers and the last 5 months if sales of 2022 proved that.

 

[Genie+]

I’m seriously considering adding Poly resale now. It’s fine no matter what happens with Poly2. Still get the benefit of close proximity to whatever shops and dining. And the prices are sweet right now. VGF is also looking swell

 

[Nabas]

They can also slow down the build so that sales are farther out.

Like most construction projects, slowing down Poly Tower construction probably will lead to increased construction costs. There tends to be a certain pace where costs are optimized. I'm not sure Disney wants to do that unless they were short of cash.

There just isn’t evidence that restrictions have an impact on sales to the degree that DVD will abandon them for thst reasons….proactive pricing and incentives is what will motivate buyers and the last 5 months if sales of 2022 proved that.

DVC buyers are becoming increasingly knowledgeable. It doesn't take much nowadays to do a quick search on your smartphone to see what people are saying about the pros and cons of buying DVC. Online chatter about the DVC product feels more negative than it did a few years ago.

It doesn't feel that Disney is selling the product they once were - this "no worries" "carefree lifetime of vacations" with the Disney brand name on it. With the added restrictions, you now have to worry about the value of your DVC purchase, something that used to not be an issue for DVC. You've got to worry about park passes. You've got to worry about airport transportation. You've got to worry about a complex ticket scheme. You've got to worry about Disney delivering that level of quality that you once used to be able to assume was always going to be there.

Surveys have shown the Disney brand name has suffered in recent years and DVC is not the same product it was even a few years ago.

I still think it's too early to say what's going on. We need to see what happens to March and April direct sales before we'll have a good idea of what's happening in the DVC market.

 

[linzjane88]

Where are you seeing this glut of points? While it may be apparent with the glut of professional rental options that now exist, I just don't see evidence with direct rentals. I would agree that there may not be enough room for so many intermediaries, but the only thing that would impact the general market would seem to be rack rates vs. rental rates. People that are willing to do some work will not likely be impacted very much. That being said, renting your points out yourself is not a cake walk. There is certainly some work to it. I also think that we here and those that rent points are a very small minority. I know so many people that own these points and could not be bothered to rent them even when they don't go. Most haven't got a clue or care of using their timeshare properly or appropriately. I run into people all the time that either fit this bill or have relatives that do. Its amazing to me that someone can drop $30,000+ grand on a whim and let it fade into oblivion.

Speaking of timeshare owners not knowing how to use their timeshare properly (not us DVC'rs obviously ) .... A coworker was complaining about their timeshare payment and how they had bought it and never used it. For YEARS, like 5-10, they had been paying dues and presumably a loan for a timeshare in Hawaii and had never stayed. I helped her log in and gently scolded her for the utter ridiculousness of what she was telling me. I'm proud to report she has booked two stays since then.

But that situation along with the listings for sale where there are unbanked points going to waste makes me think not everybody is great at maximizing their points!

 

[CVG]

Its amazing to me that someone can drop $30,000+ grand on a whim and let it fade into oblivion.

Is it similar to most people buying boats, RV's and holiday homes? But cheaper?

 

[Mai Ku Tiki]

Yes, quitclaims are still being filed now in Orange County as part of resale sales.

There was some resale for a while that was unclear, and it's unclear to me exactly where those sales would fall.

Maybe silly Q: Does someone have a copy of what that Quit Claim Deed would look like or how it would be labled in fairly recent resale Title paperwork? Thx.

 

[DonMacGregor]

The board sponsor website says they're paying up to $18/pt. Not true? The highest rate was historically for home resort reservations. If the complaints are about non-home priority rentals or distressed then that's settling back to norm vs during the travel revenge blip.

Yes, they definitely are still paying up to $18 on certain resorts/travel periods. The change is at the bottom end. Today, there are GFV, RR, BLT, and even CCV down in the $12 and $14 dollar range. That's down in the OKW/SSR range and that's something you wouldn't have seen just a few months ago. I don't want to speculate on why the market moves up or down and I don't think the movement in either direction is out of the ordinary or cause for alarm. I don't know that there are any complaints per se.

I just found it interesting that if you hypothetically bought some extra points, say last year, in order to rent them out to pay dues, you might find yourself coming up short today, especially depending on what resort you bought those points to rent out at. Logic might dictate that if you wanted to buy points you're never going to use personally, but simply rent out, that you might look to the more "traditional" SAP resorts (OKW or SSR) for your purchase, and those seem to be the ones that have been dropped down into the $12 bracket. Maybe smart money is on purchasing premium points to rent out, giving greater assurance that those points will carry a rental premium.

That's all.

 

[Spivey378]

Where is this glut? I’m not seeing a glut.

 

[Sandisw]

No more arguing about rental points!

 

[MickeyismyCat]

Yes, they definitely are still paying up to $18 on certain resorts/travel periods. The change is at the bottom end. Today, there are GFV, RR, BLT, and even CCV down in the $12 and $14 dollar range. That's down in the OKW/SSR range and that's something you wouldn't have seen just a few months ago. I don't want to speculate on why the market moves up or down and I don't think the movement in either direction is out of the ordinary or cause for alarm. I don't know that there are any complaints per se.

I just found it interesting that if you hypothetically bought some extra points, say last year, in order to rent them out to pay dues, you might find yourself coming up short today, especially depending on what resort you bought those points to rent out at. Logic might dictate that if you wanted to buy points you're never going to use personally, but simply rent out, that you might look to the more "traditional" SAP resorts (OKW or SSR) for your purchase, and those seem to be the ones that have been dropped down into the $12 bracket. Maybe smart money is on purchasing premium points to rent out, giving greater assurance that those points will carry a rental premium.

That's all.

This board isn't a great metric for the value of rental points. Generally, owners listing their points here are competing against renters that are more on top of current market rates. Also, distressed points get listed more often then not I see. Thus, suppressed overall costs per point vs FB or other social media networks audiences.

Point value is dictated by rack rate for the equivalent room and by large brokers rates. Davids, dvc resale.... (from what I see, Davids is asking 23pp now. Nice!)

Rack rate has continued to climb and resort occupancy has done nothing but climb for years now. Even during covid, the parks and resorts were at allowed capacity.

Lastly, many who rent have a fairly stable clientele base who remain loyal as repeat customers. Tons of people were burned by outfits like Davids during covid and have since branched out to independent renters. Bundling DVC rental with additional travel agent like assistance appeals to a huge demographic. People will pay for this. There uis a reason brokers buy, strip/rent, and resell contracts.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Yes, they definitely are still paying up to $18 on certain resorts/travel periods. The change is at the bottom end. Today, there are GFV, RR, BLT, and even CCV down in the $12 and $14 dollar range. That's down in the OKW/SSR range and that's something you wouldn't have seen just a few months ago. I don't want to speculate on why the market moves up or down and I don't think the movement in either direction is out of the ordinary or cause for alarm. I don't know that there are any complaints per se.

I just found it interesting that if you hypothetically bought some extra points, say last year, in order to rent them out to pay dues, you might find yourself coming up short today, especially depending on what resort you bought those points to rent out at. Logic might dictate that if you wanted to buy points you're never going to use personally, but simply rent out, that you might look to the more "traditional" SAP resorts (OKW or SSR) for your purchase, and those seem to be the ones that have been dropped down into the $12 bracket. Maybe smart money is on purchasing premium points to rent out, giving greater assurance that those points will carry a rental premium.

That's all.

That sounds like distressed reservations (even if at VGF etc if it's close in or owner can't/won't change the reservation it's distressed). Those used to garner $7-8/pt not that long ago. I'm sure people are complaining though but more likely is they aren't great at renting. I'm sure some thought the reopening blip was going to continue. I've never encouraged purchasing just for renting. The rental market has had and will have it's ups and downs and your "competition" is a large corporation who can change pricing/discounts. And using brokers - I never would personally. 1st and foremost purchase to use. It's just a plus that we have the ability to rent if for some reason we aren't using all the points.

 

[15titles]

Yes, they definitely are still paying up to $18 on certain resorts/travel periods. The change is at the bottom end. Today, there are GFV, RR, BLT, and even CCV down in the $12 and $14 dollar range. That's down in the OKW/SSR range and that's something you wouldn't have seen just a few months ago. I don't want to speculate on why the market moves up or down and I don't think the movement in either direction is out of the ordinary or cause for alarm. I don't know that there are any complaints per se.

I just found it interesting that if you hypothetically bought some extra points, say last year, in order to rent them out to pay dues, you might find yourself coming up short today, especially depending on what resort you bought those points to rent out at. Logic might dictate that if you wanted to buy points you're never going to use personally, but simply rent out, that you might look to the more "traditional" SAP resorts (OKW or SSR) for your purchase, and those seem to be the ones that have been dropped down into the $12 bracket. Maybe smart money is on purchasing premium points to rent out, giving greater assurance that those points will carry a rental premium.

That's all.

Your premise is solid. If the rental prices drop, then there will be a lot less money coming in for some folks. Who knows if that'll happen.

My personal opinion is that the rates will maintain their current level. I think Disney and DVC got through the pandemic and recession and maintained value. But if the economy does gets worse, then yes, the rental prices could drop. But I also think in that case that money in the stock market or other securities might take a similar hit. So, it's a gamble either way, especially in this economic climate.

 

[Brian Noble]

For me, that still argues against renting. Every time I look, ROI on rentals for resale points is usually at best equal to the long-term post-tax rate of return for a diversified low-fee stock index fund. Usually it's a little less. It doesn't really matter which resort. Yes, prime resorts get more annual revenue, but their cost basis is higher making it a wash.

(If you think about it, this should not be surprising. The invisible hand strikes again!)

But, renting is more work vs. the set-and-forget of an index fund. What's more, the diversified nature of the fund spreads risk, vs. DVC rentals which focus risk---and that risk is correlated with your own desire to travel. So, exactly when you might want to travel less often due to outside factors, and put more of your points up for rental, everyone else wants to travel less too.