Upcomming announcement speculation thread

[stopher1]

"Only" 50 villas says to me they wanted it sold out quickly and to be done with it since other projects were coming out. I do agree though that selling DL to Californians is a vastly different undertaking, even as other timeshares in general have done well in CA (spoken as someone who grew in So. Cal.).

I'll echo these statements! I grew up there too, and a) Disneyland is a very different destination than the more "long-term" vacation kingdom found in Florida given the much, much larger day tripping AP base or the 2-day semi-local or neighboring state visitors and b) yes, so many other timeshare properties throughout the state have done well, quite well, through the years. Unfortunately for DVC - given the longer preliminary phases of planning and then actual development - just like BLT did, VGC opened in a down economy and sales have been slower than they more than likely anticipated. Between all of the schmaltzy advertising pieces about it being the first DVC next to the first Magic Kingdom, etc and only putting in 50 units (while at the same time building 200+ regular hotel rooms) says to me that the company wanted the best of both worlds - more cash guests for the hotel, and a quick sell out for DVC. Even if that quick sell out meant 6 months or a year to DVC, it still hasn't happened. And in order to move the inventory like so many other sellers, whether real estate, electronics, cars or clothing - they'll discount some of it in order to do so. They're still making a large profit, even if it is diminished somewhat thanks to the discounting.

 

[photobob]

Is it just me, or do you have to be crazy not to buy resale? If you do not now what I mean click on the TIMESHARE STORE logo at the top of the screen and scroll through their listings.

If I were buying right now resale would most definitely be my route.

 

[MommyBell08]

RESALE FOR LIFE!

 

[Brian Noble]

This says to me they expected a huge demand

...or they were trying to create a sense of scarcity amongst the die-hard fans.

 

[oct2014]

Maybe luxury= high interest rates in your world, but not in mine. $120 for BLT is the price of luxury, not 10.75% interest. Would you expect your bank to charge you a higher interest rate for a MERCEDES loan than for a FORD? I hope not.

Unfortunately, they do charge higher rates on second homes than primary residences. I think that is where the luxury comes into play. Many people need a car to live, but they don't need a vacation (or at least not in the same way).

Caroline

 

[DVCGeek]

I have no way to know what % has been sold, but I agree with you, I think it will make selling Aulani more possible and easier all around once they have one less active resort in the mis.

Especially an active resort that is relatively close to the new one, at least on the nearest mainland coast. FL vs. Hawaii is a LOT longer travel wise; so there could be a geographical component. In fact, my guide mentioned when I bought VGC that it would be a great place to springboard a night or two before going to Hawaii! Just speculating...

 

[tjkraz]

I see what you're saying. However, they initially had limits on the number of points you could buy, as well as who and when people could buy at the outset. This says to me they expected a huge demand and were trying to spread out the sales. It didn't take long before they lifted all that, I assume in response to lower demand than expected.

The initial restrictions were part of a contractual guarantee given to people who had purchased SSR and AKV points through the Disneyland sales center. Those buyers were guaranteed a 60-day window in which they could purchase points at the Grand Californian.

The 60-day window was upheld.

As for the minimum, my understanding is that was necessitated by the number of individuals who were given this guarantee. Even though they suspected the vast majority of buyers wouldn't take advantage of the 60-day window, they still had to be prudent and afford equal rights to every eligible member. In other words, they couldn't allow 5000 people (speculative) to purchase 500 points each simply because there aren't 2.5 million points available at the Grand Cal.

Once the 60 day window ended that cap no longer applied.

Selling the entire resort within a couple of months was a pipe dream. There's a reason it took 18 years for DVC to build its first resort in CA and for it being only 50 units.

 

[RickinPA]

DVC packaged these "securitized" loans and sold them to other lenders for a nice fee. When the banking industry collapsed these loans stayed with Disney, thus creating a huge profit loss. Increasing rates is what happened industry wide , not just with Disney. Mortgage rates and timeshare loan rates are not the same. There are reasons why the rates are different.

Umm, don't mean to be smart but this is not accurate. If Disney packaged and sold the "at risk loans," they were sold at a discount. If after the sale there was a default, or as you say collapse, it does not default back to Disney.

 

[RickinPA]

Maybe luxury= high interest rates in your world, but not in mine. $120 for BLT is the price of luxury, not 10.75% interest. Would you expect your bank to charge you a higher interest rate for a MERCEDES loan than for a FORD? I hope not.

There is a reason why Disney applies a 10.75% interest rate to their loans. RISK.

10.75% is the price you pay for risk not for luxury.

 

[Maistre Gracey]

There is a reason why Disney applies a 10.75% interest rate to their loans. RISK.

10.75% is the price you pay for risk not for luxury.

I don't think 10.75 is outrageous once you factor in the tax deduction.
For many people it comes out to 8% or less..

MG

 

[dizfan]

Link to Orlando Sentinel Article about DVC loans

 

[SpaceRangers]

So I just got off the phone with my guide, (who in the various years we've dealt with one another tends to be a very good actress playing coy when I ask very direct, pointed questions about what I read in various online sources, including here - especially when she doesn't want to answer me) and she said, in her roundabout way, that she hasn't heard anything about BCV or BWV prices going up anytime soon, but she'd certainly ask around and see if she could find anything out for me. (Yeah, whatever).

I then asked her a variety of other questions, including about VGC and what the current incentives are there since she knows that we want more points there. The fun part was when (Nunzia and any others who want additional VGC points, this is for you) - she then dropped her voice to a barely audible whisper and continued to tell me that there will be a new round of incentives coming out late next week (confirming a pp's post about new incentives later on, not this Sunday) that will include better discounts than anything they currently offer on VGC to try and get that one closer to selling out. She talked about the meeting a couple of days ago and said that the managers running that meeting indicated VGC was more than 65% sold, and they want to move it to the finish line.

Obviously only time will tell, and guides are salespeople - but I do hope what she whispered to me is true, as we'd love to get some more points there once again.

Here's hoping that indeed they are going to offer something even better for VGC. Thanks to the reallocation, we are in need of another add-on so we don't borrow our way out of a vacation.

 

[BLTSam]

We are currently holding contracts for BLT, and haven't sent them back yet based on what I have been reading here. Do we think the upoming incentives will effecrt BLT pricing/incentives? I will definitely wait to see if anything comes around Sunday, but should I wait till this new window of 3/13-3/17 for some potential announcement? We are traveling on 4/5, so I don't want to wait too long. Any advice is greatly appreciated!!

 

[RickinPA]

Link to Orlando Sentinel Article about DVC loans

Thank you for the link. Citi stopped buying the mortgages from Disney. The previously purchased martgages that subsequently defaulted did not revert back to Disney.

Legally the loss was to Citi and not Disney. Disney assumed some of the loss to maintain a relationship with Citi. This did not default back to Disney. They must have exercised pervassive constraint.

 

[dizfan]

Thank you for the link. Citi stopped buying the mortgages from Disney. The previously purchased martgages that subsequently defaulted did not revert back to Disney.

While they did not revert to Disney, it sounded like Disney had some type of deal with Citi...

"Disney has for years opted to take back defaulting loans from Citi and replace them with sounder ones. Doing so ensures Disney, rather than the bank, will handle foreclosure proceedings.

That's important because Disney does not want a nasty foreclosure process to alienate Vacation Club members, even if they are currently in financial distress. The people who buy Disney time shares, after all, are intensely loyal customers who also spend money on Mickey Mouse plushes, Pixar movies and Hannah Montana makeover kits.

Further, Disney prefers to reacquire Vacation Club time-share interests itself. That prevents a third party -- such as a bank with no interest in owning a piece of a time share -- from dumping cheap resales onto the market and potentially undercutting Disney's own sales."

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I don't think 10.75 is outrageous once you factor in the tax deduction.
For many people it comes out to 8% or less..

MG

Interest paid on most timeshare loans are not tax deductible. Only loans taken thru HELOC's or second mortgages are tax deductible. Rates advertised thru TSS are not mortgages. Unless things have changed and then I stand corrected.

 

[RickinPA]

While they did not revert to Disney, it sounded like Disney had some type of deal with Citi...

"Disney has for years opted to take back defaulting loans from Citi and replace them with sounder ones. Doing so ensures Disney, rather than the bank, will handle foreclosure proceedings.

That's important because Disney does not want a nasty foreclosure process to alienate Vacation Club members, even if they are currently in financial distress. The people who buy Disney time shares, after all, are intensely loyal customers who also spend money on Mickey Mouse plushes, Pixar movies and Hannah Montana makeover kits.

Further, Disney prefers to reacquire Vacation Club time-share interests itself. That prevents a third party -- such as a bank with no interest in owning a piece of a time share -- from dumping cheap resales onto the market and potentially undercutting Disney's own sales."

Dizfan,

Very well said. I could not agree with you more, nor could I have put it better.

With regard to the post I replied to. I just felt it was a little deceiving.

 

[Maistre Gracey]

Interest paid on most timeshare loans are not tax deductible. Only loans taken thru HELOC's or second mortgages are tax deductible. Rates advertised thru TSS are not mortgages. Unless things have changed and then I stand corrected.

The Disney financing is tax deductible for most people.
It's secured by a mortgage.

MG

 

[BWV Dreamin]

The Disney financing is tax deductible for most people.
It's secured by a mortgage.

MG

I'm not sure what Disney lent was a mortgage as it was not secured against one's home. However their loans are tax deductible and that is what is different from other lender's. No credit check, no loan against your home, tax deductible financing. It's still a draw just a more expensive one now.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

And apparently you can just give Disney back the contract if you feel it's too much to pay for. I saw this recently posted and still don't understand how the borrower escapes default when they just " give it back"?