Marathon Weekend 2020

[JulieODC]

I know this has been discussed - but how many water stations do we expect in the full??

QOTW: thankful for knowledgeable runners who can answer all my random questions - and have the expertise to nearly predict the course!!

thankful to have made it to this point in my training without issue - and to be running virtually injury free. And to have overcome some health issues in getting here.

thanks to @DopeyBadger for making such an approachable training plan!

thankful to have returned to running and found amazing communities of people here and in “real life”! Runners are the best!

 

[bananabean]

I know this has been discussed - but how many water stations do we expect in the full??

According to last year's map there were 19 water stops during the full (same in 2018). It will probably a similar amount this year.

 

[JulieODC]

19 is great! More than I expect!

 

[BigEeyore]

Not feeling very thankful today. 7 mile easy taper run and my hamstring grabs at 5.5 miles. Scrambling to get into a dry needling session before Thanksgiving while working around an unexpected board of health audit at work that’s already cancelled my vacation days Monday and Tuesday. Space Coast is looming next Sunday. So many emotions right now. #snakebit.

Hope you are doing better and it's just a minor thing!

Which is related to my SAFD answer: After years of running, and my fair share of injuries along the way, I am truly thankful to be able to run. And like many of you, I am thankful for rD because I don't know that I would have gotten into endurance events without that 2011 Princess half race that motivated me to train for a half marathon. Now most of my friends are training buddies I have met along the way, and this community on the Dis is amazing.

 

[camaker]

I have a feeling the opening miles will be more crowded than people are used to. When they ran the old course, there were two different starts which took different routes through Epcot before joining together once outside the park around mile 4. Unless they do this again, funneling all 20-25000 people through Epcot will cause crowding, slowing, and frustration for the runners.

It will depend heavily on the number of participants, though. Based on my unscientific gut feel looking at the numbers from the marathon last year and the speed at which all the races sold out this year, I'm thinking we may be looking at a marathon field closer to the 12-15,000 range. There will probably still be some early crowding, but I'm guessing not nearly as much as there would have been in the 20-25,000 participant "golden age".

 

[PrincessV]

I have a feeling the opening miles will be more crowded than people are used to. When they ran the old course, there were two different starts which took different routes through Epcot before joining together once outside the park around mile 4. Unless they do this again, funneling all 20-25000 people through Epcot will cause crowding, slowing, and frustration for the runners.

Yep, if the field is as big as it's been in the past few years, this could feel a whole lot like the inaugural Dark Side 10K and Half, where the congestion was nothing less than extraordinary.

The only incline looks to be the underpass before getting to Magic Kingdom, and even that is quite short.

I'm seeing two long, but not particularly steep, overpasses: the first is what has previously been roughly mile 1, where we head up the overpass leaving EP before going down the exit ramp onto World Dr., and the second is on Buena Vista after exiting BB and where BV goes over World Dr. before we hang a right into DHS. And then, yes, that short, steep-ish underpass heading toward MK, a couple little spots in AK, and maybe a couple in BB, depending on where they send us in there. But nothing like that cloverleaf toward the end in previous courses!

It will depend heavily on the number of participants, though. Based on my unscientific gut feel looking at the numbers from the marathon last year and the speed at which all the races sold out this year, I'm thinking we may be looking at a marathon field closer to the 12-15,000 range. There will probably still be some early crowding, but I'm guessing not nearly as much as there would have been in the 20-25,000 participant "golden age".

I think it'll depend, too, on corral and how they divvy up the crowd. If they stick 8,000 - 10,000 people in one corral again, and don't really spread that out in waves, it could be ugly.

 

[FFigawi]

Course crowding aside, the worst news I heard today is that the bartender from Thirsty River has a new gig. She’s moving to a new bar in Epcot next month. We might not be able to get beer in AK this time around.

 

[rteetz]

Course crowding aside, the worst news I heard today is that the bartender from Thirsty River has a new gig. She’s moving to a new bar in Epcot next month. We might not be able to get beer in AK this time around.

 

[DopeyBadger]

I think it'll depend, too, on corral and how they divvy up the crowd. If they stick 8,000 - 10,000 people in one corral again, and don't really spread that out in waves, it could be ugly.

And whether with a reduced field if they send them out at the same rate (~375-425 bibs per minute) or the same timeframe (45-60 min). Because if we get a field of say 13000 bibs, then we could be looking at a release time schedule of 30-35ish minutes from the first person to the balloon lady if they use the same rate as both 2018 and 2019 even though those two years had vastly different bib counts (27000 vs 18000).

Course crowding aside, the worst news I heard today is that the bartender from Thirsty River has a new gig. She’s moving to a new bar in Epcot next month. We might not be able to get beer in AK this time around.

That's a bummer for sure! Maybe the new person there would be just as willing to open early?

My past data says they opened TR at 7:30am and it occurred at Mile 13. So let's run some math scenarios to see whether the early start + distance change to TR makes any difference if the TR opened a bit later.



If someone started in Corral D in 2019, they were estimated to start around 5:41am.

-To reach TR at opening (7:30am) they would have run 13 miles in 1:49 or 8:23 min/mile pace.
-To reach TR at normal operation hours (9am) they would have run 13 miles in 3:19 or 15:18 min/mile.

Now using the earlier start time (5:00am), the same release timing for corrals as 2019 (which may or may not occur), and assuming the TR location will be around mile 17 allows us to project out theoretical timing.

-In order for the same Corral D person to reach TR at 7:30am, they would need to run 17 miles in 2:19 hrs or 8:11 min/mile pace. So in 2020, they would be projected to have to run faster to reach TR than in 2019. Thus, making it potentially harder to do so. The person in corral D is a projected 4:30-5:00 POT marathon (10:18-11:27 min/mile marathon runner).
-In order for the same Corral D person to reach TR at normal operation hours (9am) they would have run 17 miles in 3:49 or 13:28 min/mile. So in 2020, they would be projected to have to run faster to reach TR than in 2019.

So the potential changes would seem to hurt those who would want to be first to TR (because you'd need to run faster to get there (8:23 vs 8:11)), but would potentially help those who are intentionally slowing their pace or enjoying the course, characters, rides, etc. to reach TR if it didn't open until 9am (because they wouldn't have to slow as much (15:18 vs 13:28)) if they didn't want to. The golden gap is an early open for TR because then even more people are likely to pass it when it is open.

Since the time gap of race start from 2019 to 2020 is 30 min (5:00am to 5:30am), and the distance of TR/AK changed from 13 to ~17 miles, then that means there is a net gain of 34 extra minutes before the balloon ladies would come through. This potentially means even more people could enjoy TR and EE without the fear of being swept even with a 9am opening. 2019 balloon lady arrival at TR/EE was 9:43am, but projected in 2020 to be around 10:17am.

 

[rdelar01]

And whether with a reduced field if they send them out at the same rate (~375-425 bibs per minute) or the same timeframe (45-60 min). Because if we get a field of say 13000 bibs, then we could be looking at a release time schedule of 30-35ish minutes from the first person to the balloon lady if they use the same rate as both 2018 and 2019 even though those two years had vastly different bib counts (27000 vs 18000).



That's a bummer for sure! Maybe the new person there would be just as willing to open early?

You're doing great work here, @DopeyBadger!

 

[FFigawi]

And whether with a reduced field if they send them out at the same rate (~375-425 bibs per minute) or the same timeframe (45-60 min). Because if we get a field of say 13000 bibs, then we could be looking at a release time schedule of 30-35ish minutes from the first person to the balloon lady if they use the same rate as both 2018 and 2019 even though those two years had vastly different bib counts (27000 vs 18000).



That's a bummer for sure! Maybe the new person there would be just as willing to open early?

My past data says they opened TR at 7:30am and it occurred at Mile 13. So let's run some math scenarios to see whether the early start + distance change to TR makes any difference if the TR opened a bit later.

View attachment 454921

If someone started in Corral D in 2019, they were estimated to start around 5:41am.

-To reach TR at opening (7:30am) they would have run 13 miles in 1:49 or 8:23 min/mile pace.
-To reach TR at normal operation hours (9am) they would have run 13 miles in 3:19 or 15:18 min/mile.

Now using the earlier start time (5:00am), the same release timing for corrals as 2019 (which may or may not occur), and assuming the TR location will be around mile 17 allows us to project out theoretical timing.

-In order for the same Corral D person to reach TR at 7:30am, they would need to run 17 miles in 2:19 hrs or 8:11 min/mile pace. So in 2020, they would be projected to have to run faster to reach TR than in 2019. Thus, making it potentially harder to do so. The person in corral D is a projected 4:30-5:00 POT marathon (10:18-11:27 min/mile marathon runner).
-In order for the same Corral D person to reach TR at normal operation hours (9am) they would have run 17 miles in 3:49 or 13:28 min/mile. So in 2020, they would be projected to have to run faster to reach TR than in 2019.

So the potential changes would seem to hurt those who would want to be first to TR (because you'd need to run faster to get there (8:23 vs 8:11)), but would potentially help those who are intentionally slowing their pace or enjoying the course, characters, rides, etc. to reach TR if it didn't open until 9am (because they wouldn't have to slow as much (15:18 vs 13:28)) if they didn't want to. The golden gap is an early open for TR because then even more people are likely to pass it when it is open.

Since the time gap of race start from 2019 to 2020 is 30 min (5:00am to 5:30am), and the distance of TR/AK changed from 13 to ~17 miles, then that means there is a net gain of 34 extra minutes before the balloon ladies would come through. This potentially means even more people could enjoy TR and EE without the fear of being swept even with a 9am opening. 2019 balloon lady arrival at TR/EE was 9:43am, but projected in 2020 to be around 10:17am.

Now that’s some useful math!

 

[StarGirl11]

Sort of off-track but apparently Epcot put in a little bit about the famous Marathon Des Sables into their gallery at the Morrocco pavilion. Planning to check it out on my December trip and thought I would mention it in case anyone wants to see it when we're all down there in January.

 

[Sleepless Knight]

SAFD: Thankful for runDisney because this whole crazy journey allowed me to sort of realize a childhood dream. Being on a major league baseball field. When I realized that I would not be a major league baseball player in my childhood, I moved on. But through runDisney I had the experience just in a way I never would have expected.

Also thankful for what the entire endurance race experience has taught me about myself and my ability to do difficult things, including those I once thought impossible.

And certainly, like many others for this community. When I was having second thoughts about the marathon, you helped me to understand my reasons for attempting the distance. When I was having a serious crisis of confidence during marathon training, you helped me work through my fears and realize that I would get through it. In some respects running has been a series of accomplishing the impossible for me. And this community especially has taught me so much about how to get there.

 

[rteetz]

Gauging some interest on a marathon weekend meetup. Keep at Hurricane Hannahs or move somewhere else? If moving elsewhere where? Disney Springs? Somewhere near MK? Obviously probably best to keep out of a park and/or best to make it a more central location. Just throwing out some ideas. More than happy to keep it as is.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Gauging some interest on a marathon weekend meetup. Keep at Hurricane Hannahs or move somewhere else? If moving elsewhere where? Disney Springs? Somewhere near MK? Obviously probably best to keep out of a park and/or best to make it a more central location. Just throwing out some ideas. More than happy to keep it as is.

I prefer HH on Fri at 2pm mostly because my entire day is scheduled around it being there. But I can always figure out otherwise if the group prefers elsewhere.

 

[FawnJD]

In a bit late on SAFD:
-Thankful for my husband who wrangles our girls during my long weekend runs
-Thankful my knees are doing well this year
-Thankful for Lapu Lapus

 

[jennamfeo]

Thankful for Lapu Lapus

Amen

 

[lhermiston]

Gauging some interest on a marathon weekend meetup. Keep at Hurricane Hannahs or move somewhere else? If moving elsewhere where? Disney Springs? Somewhere near MK? Obviously probably best to keep out of a park and/or best to make it a more central location. Just throwing out some ideas. More than happy to keep it as is.

Like @DopeyBadger, I've built my Friday around a Hurricane Hannah's meetup. I welcome the excuse to get over to the Boardwalk area and we were treated to a gorgeous sunset after this year's meetup.

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[rteetz]

Like @DopeyBadger, I've built my Friday around a Hurricane Hannah's meetup. I welcome the excuse to get over to the Boardwalk area and we were treated to a gorgeous sunset after this year's meetup.

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You guys have a lot of faith in someone hosting a meet up at 2PM on Friday. What if it was at 3PM or on Saturday?

 

[lhermiston]

You guys have a lot of faith in someone hosting a meet up at 2PM on Friday. What if it was at 3PM or on Saturday?

I mean, without Splash Mountain, this trip is meaningless. I am taking a completely nihilistic approach to the entire trip. I can be anywhere, at any time, to drown my sorrows.

JK?