Wow - @DopeyBadger - thank you. That was way more analysis than I expected and it's appreciated. I definitely need to ask about walking - at this point, until surgery, I'm pretty limited on what I can do because of the type of fracture and where it is in relation to my eye.I say in choosing what to do, do what will make you happiest with the experience. So if that means walking the races, character photos, drinks, and rides will make you happy with the experience, then do that. If having to defer to the next year (if allowed) will make you happier because the experience will be different, then do that.
As for whether you will be physically capable, I'd say it's definitely doable. A 2:16 POT is likely Corral D which means an estimated buffer of 35-45 min for the HM and 25-35 minutes for the marathon on the balloon ladies (we'll have a better guess when the bib #s come out). I'll use the low end for both:
HM - 35 min extra over 13.11 miles is 2:40 min/mile extra. So 16+2:40 = 18:40 min/mile walking pace minimum average.
M - 25 min extra over 26.22 miles is 57 sec/mile extra. So 16+57 sec = 16:57 min/mile walking pace minimum average.
Let's assume worst case scenario on recovery:
12/2 - See Dr.
12/9 - Surgery
12/16 - Recovery
12/23 - Recovery
12/30 - Recovery
1/6 - Race Week
So with this time window there's little time to actually resume training. So one of the first questions I'd ask the surgery team/Dr. is how much walking you would be allowed to do post-surgery and when you could start. Maybe 3-4 weeks off running, but what about a casual walking pace? If the casual walking pace is allowed, then I'd start that up as soon as you feel good and as soon as is allowed by the team.
As for where your fitness would be, we can use the Daniels Loss of Fitness calculation to get a rough idea. It's for VO2max so it is not perfect, but it's a reasonable estimate.
View attachment 455131
The calculation says if you were in 2:16 HM shape entering NYC and you did:
-Some training after NYC and were allowed to start walk training 1 week after surgery then fitness would be 2:22:00 HM estimate.
-Some training after NYC and not allowed to start walk after surgery then fitness would be 2:33:00 HM estimate.
-No training since NYC then fitness would be 2:42:30 HM estimate.
In all of these cases, the estimates show that is feasible for you to be able to complete the races. Walking definitely uses the muscles differently, so the more walking you can get in before the Disney races the better.
Hope that helps and everything works out ok with the surgery!
Thanks for the kind thoughts - definitely still making the Disney trip. Just figuring out how to make the best of it.