Covid And The Rest of Us

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Wave 2 coming to the uk in 3..2...1... šŸ™

1813 cases yesterday to an alarming 2959 today!!

They can't even blame schools yet.
 
https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-CA&mid=/m/01n7q&gl=CA&ceid=CA:en
This is a VERY interesting chart that compares Cases-Per-Million population for every nation on the globe. I had not seen it compiled in exactly this form before. Click on a country on the map then scroll down to where the numbers are and click the ā€œcases per millionā€ button. Itā€™s absolutely shocking to see how huge this problem is in the US compared to any other country on earth. :eek:
No wonder most USA leaders want people to use the more dubious measure of % positive instead!
 
One problem with comparing ā€œdeath ratesā€ is that places hit hard early last spring did not yet have the benefit of treatment protocols. Most of the NY deaths were from the spring, while most FL and TX deaths occurred over summer. Unfortunately those early cases became the guinea pigs who gave us the more accetable protocols now in use to start treatments. If FL and TX didnā€™t have the benefit of NYā€™s experience (experiments?) with treatments, the deaths would most likely have been much higher in those locations.
I think a decent portion of the deaths are still tied for long-term care facilities IIRC which in some ways was more understandable earlier on when safety measures and protocols weren't the same but that helps out on the spreads aspect. Unfortunately that doesn't necessarily correlate to treatment measures since many who live in long-term care facilities are susceptible to complications under normal circumstances.

I tried finding some news sources that gave more context to our numbers but none since late June where the death rate at that point said 41% of our death rate as a country was related to long-term care facilities when at that same time period those only represented 8% of the cases. Maybe someone is able to locate more current information in the breakdown of just where those deaths occur in our present situation.
 
Oh my, Mackenzie, I don't mean this with any sarcasm at all but your first paragraph seems so indicative of the general US attitude, which stands in stark contrast to many other places. The words "fighting hard" seem to describe practically everything Covid-response related, don't they?
And I don't take offense to your comment either :flower3: It's quite true when you really think about it. Just about nothing mandated or strongly suggested has been adopted without some push back.
For the record, education is a provincial jurisdiction here in Canada. Each province is responsible for determining it's own path forward. School started here in Alberta last week with 3 options; in-person classes at every level from pre-school to grade 12, on-line learning led by board-certified teachers using the exact same curriculum as in-person and "independent learning" (which is the official term here for home-schooling) which must be done according to an approved curriculum under the oversight of a school district. The choice is up to parents and perhaps the fact that there is a choice is what has kept the issue from becoming contentious.
I think that has a large part of it.

In my county that's what most of the parents want. They want the ability to access the situation and decide what works best for their child. In my area at least they do get a choice on whether they are virtual or in-person BUT that choice for in-person can and has been removed for the beginning of the school year for at least most students due to gating criteria for at least a time. And the school districts in my county keep going back and forth between following the County's gating criteria for learning modes or the state's guidance as they include different things.

There's been protests, even a lawsuit now regarding golf, to allow students to be in fall sports and that has worked to change the school districts' minds. Just Friday one of the districts that previously announced no fall sports now will allow fall sports (it's also one named in a lawsuit regarding the golf). Mind you school starts Tuesday (which was already pushed back from mid-August)!

I appreciate the information about Alberta. I do like that the exact same curriculum is being used. It makes it much simpler for everyone. It just sounds like things are going much smoother overall in Canada even across the multiple provinces (and other countries already mentioned by a few other posters) regarding instructional learning. Here it feels like a pinball machine :sad2:
 
And I don't take offense to your comment either :flower3: It's quite true when you really think about it. Just about nothing mandated or strongly suggested has been adopted without some push back.
I think that has a large part of it.

In my county that's what most of the parents want. They want the ability to access the situation and decide what works best for their child. In my area at least they do get a choice on whether they are virtual or in-person BUT that choice for in-person can and has been removed for the beginning of the school year for at least most students due to gating criteria for at least a time. And the school districts in my county keep going back and forth between following the County's gating criteria for learning modes or the state's guidance as they include different things.

There's been protests, even a lawsuit now regarding golf, to allow students to be in fall sports and that has worked to change the school districts' minds. Just Friday one of the districts that previously announced no fall sports now will allow fall sports (it's also one named in a lawsuit regarding the golf). Mind you school starts Tuesday (which was already pushed back from mid-August)!

I appreciate the information about Alberta. I do like that the exact same curriculum is being used. It makes it much simpler for everyone. It just sounds like things are going much smoother overall in Canada even across the multiple provinces (and other countries already mentioned by a few other posters) regarding instructional learning. Here it feels like a pinball machine :sad2:
Maybe the idea of "choice" is what makes the difference, although I do believe we are much less aggressive in assessing what does and does not violate our individual rights.

Take church for example - here there is no "official" separation of church and state such as you have; it's just a deeply entrenched value that while all religious expression is respected and protected under law, none in particular will have undue influence on public policy. Because of that, people of faith didn't feel specifically victimized when restrictions (as applied to all public gatherings) curtailed our normal practises. Instead, we adapted to the rules, taking whatever latitude is available. The church I go to now has 3 "options"; attend in person in a strictly social distanced environment with mandatory masking, attend in person to a video broadcast outdoors with strict social distancing but no masking (as per our local rules) or view the services on-line. And yes, before anybody asks...the outdoor services will soon be coming to an end as the weather dictates but for now at least, everybody is happy.
 
I do find it a very positive thing that a person with public authority has the latitude to publicize a decision like this, made for his own reasons. Not being forced to "toe the company line" as it were. Did he make this announcement in a critical way as a dire warning against the back-to-school plan though I wonder? Or more just as a suggested framework for how parents might evaluate their own situations?

I communicated poorly Annette. He is a doctor -an infectious disease specialist -and does regularly provide information about the virus, but in no official capacity. A hire for CTV - Dr. Sharkawy.

He was asked on air if he personally was sending his kids, and I must have played a very bad game of telephone. :sad2: I just found an article about it all. He is only keeping his youngest home, who is only four (unless he changed his mind recently and I caught a late on air interview)

https://www.google.com/amp/s/beta.ctvnews.ca/national/coronavirus/2020/8/25/1_5078420.html
He also offers up a very measured interview about schools opening up and the challenges -

https://www.google.com/amp/s/beta.ctvnews.ca/national/coronavirus/2020/8/18/1_5068510.html
**** Interesting information - in one of the articles he states that at this time we have no evidence of outdoor transmission of the virus.*****

I have heard many experts suggest that, but not in such definitive terms.
 
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Bavaria says 'QuƩbƩcois' and the family on left says AHHHH!

:rotfl2::thumbsup2
Bavaria is smart AND handy.

-------
I went to school in Quebec. And my French professor was from France. She was so snooty about the language that she would pretend that she didn't hear a student trying to clarify a Quebecois/french term.

She would literally turn away. :rotfl2:With a subtle look of disgust.
 
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So yesterday was a big day here in Victoria, Australia with the Premier announcing the road map for the next few months. It is a lot to process and a lot of people aren't happy. However, the modelling showed that if we open too early there is too great a risk (60% risk) that we would be back in lockdown by Christmas. This plan is really to ensure that we can have a normal Christmas and summer and be allowed back into the other states and hopefully even into an international bubble ASAP.

This is the plan for metropolitan Melbourne (regional Victoria will reopen a bit faster), although we were told today that the dates could be brought forward if the numbers drop faster than predicted:

Current restrictions:
Curfew: 8pm to 5am
4 reasons to leave home: Exercise (for a max of 1 hour with only 1 other person within 5km from home); essential shopping (by yourself within 5km from home or the closest store; most retail stores are required to be closed); medical care or caregiving; working if you have a permit.
No religious services are permitted; funerals are capped at 10 people (excluding infants under 12 months and those required to conduct the funeral); weddings only permitted for compassionate grounds with up to 5 people.
Schools all closed
Childcare only available for permitted workers

First step: From 11:59pm on 13 September
Curfew changed to start at 9pm (remember, we are going into summer so the days are getting longer)
People who live alone or single parents can nominate 1 person to be in their 'bubble' and can have them to visit and visit them (even if their nominated person lives with others)
Exercise increased to 2 hours (and can be taken in 2 sessions)
Households or 2 people from different households can gather outside for other recreation for up to 2 hours
Playgrounds to open

Second step: From 28 September provided average daily case rate over 14 days is below 50
Up to 5 people from 2 households can gather outside
Childcare available for everyone
Staged return to school for prep to grade 2 and year 11 and 12 (plus any year 10 students doing a year 11 subject) and specialist schools

Third step: From 26 October provided average daily case rate over 14 days is below 5 and there are less than 5 cases of unknown origin over the last 14 days
No curfew
No restrictions on reasons to leave home
Public gatherings up to 10 people
Can enter a 'household bubble' with another household and have up to 5 visitors (excluding infants) from that household
Potential staged return to school for remaining students
Retail and hairdressing (but not other beauty) reopens
Hospitality re-opens, primarily outdoors, with group limits of 10 and density limits
Outdoor sport permitted, skate parks reopen
Outdoor religious services for up to 10 people, weddings capped at 10, funerals capped at 20
Outdoor entertainment venues and events permitted (with an approved plan)
Accommodation allowed
Private real estate inspections and outdoor auctions

Last step: From 23 November provided no new cases for 14 days
Public gatherings up to 50 people
Up to 20 visitors to your home
Hospitality with group limits of 20 and cap of 50 indoors with density limits outdoors
Beauty and personal care open
All real estate services as normal with record keeping and safety measures
Weddings and funerals capped at 50 people (20 if at a private residence), religious services subject to density limits
Indoor and outdoor entertainment venues open subject to density limits; large events treated on an individual basis

COVID normal: No new cases for 28 days
No restrictions, but various safety measures and record keeping requirements
 
@elphaba91 that is quite a plan, do you think the numbers will be as desired on the deadlines?

And how is the mood in Australia, mass protests or the majority sticking it out?
 
@elphaba91 that is quite a plan, do you think the numbers will be as desired on the deadlines?

And how is the mood in Australia, mass protests or the majority sticking it out?

I think seeing the way most other states have managed to reach elimination (or at least elimination of community transmission) has made it clear that it is achievable. Plus, I think seeing how big of a fire a small spark of a handful of cases caused has made the health authorities and government very hesitant to risk making the same mistakes as last time. I really donā€™t think there will be any leeway in terms of the case numbers, although the premier did say today that there may be on the dates if things are looking good. We had under 50 new cases today, which is a good sign for the first target.

For most Australians, life is actually back to normal. We have a population of 25.5 million. NSW (population 8 million) has restrictions on large gatherings and then Victoria (population 6.5 million) has the above. There are even crowds at sporting events in the other states (the AFL Grand Final is going to be played outside of Victoria for the first time ever)!

I think a lot of people in Vic are feeling a bit down, but resigned to it. There was a protest on Saturday (before the plan was announced) and approximately 200 people attended (17 arrested and 160 fined $1600). I think there was also a protest in Sydney, but with a much smaller turnout. There are also a few people who take issue with wearing masks, but most people have embraced that.
 
Love the picture! and the mask to me works with the outfit especially with having the ears :) Hope you had a good time out there! Our closest amusement park (about 40-45mins away but still within our metro) is closing tomorrow for the season. Normally it would have Halloween, then close again then reopen around Thanksgiving through Christmas/New Years time for Winterfest on the weekends (something started several years ago). They cited the uncertainty with respects to the pandemic for closing at Labor Day for the season. But I don't know anyone who went to the amusement park this year so not sure how the experience was. The water park next door to it never opened for the season.

Good information in your post too, the herd immunity part something I think to really keep an eye on. I feel like that has gone back and forth from is it possible to is it not possible; seems like other countries think it's possible whereas that thought process kinda went away in the States. The percentages you quoted are very interesting, I feel like in the past the numbers were listed as needing to be much much higher if herd immunity was even possible.

Most EU themeparks have announced either cancellations of their Halloween/Christmas seasons or heavily modified. Almost all cancel their entertainment. Many have for Halloween scarezones with actors etc. but most of it is cancelled (or will be cancelled soon).

I think in NL we were always quoted 60% for herd immunity. But they don't really talk about it here. As in the very first press conference in March the prime minister and others didn't chose their words wisely and made it think that the goal was to create herd immunity. Which it wasn't. So the topic is sort of off limit

:earsgirl: Lovely picture - I hope you enjoyed yourself! We spent a single day at DLP in 2018 - fresh off the red-eye from western Canada and honestly, we were so jet-lagged I couldn't even tell you what we did or saw. :laughing:

One thing about your article that leaves me a little perplexed is the comments about herd immunity. Were we not just recently told there would be no herd immunity due to the emergence of verified cases of re-infection and the fact the virus can/might/will mutate? Also, here in Canada we've heard next-to-nothing about treatment protocols. No announcements whatsoever about promising drug therapies. I'm not sure why - it's quite frustrating, but good to be informed that there are treatments showing results.
See above for herd immunity in NL ;-)
About treatments, I don't hear a lot about it, but then again I haven't been looking for information either.

But after some googling (Seriously, what did we do before Google :P ) I found several pages about the treatment, from the PCP website. It contains things not to do: Don't prescribe medication that is not proven, like hydroxychloriquine or antibiotics, etc. that for severe pneumonia & coughing they stick to amoxicilline. And a whole list of what PCP's need to think about for diabetic or pregnant patients. There is not a lot of information, but there is some information available.
 
Love the picture! and the mask to me works with the outfit especially with having the ears :) Hope you had a good time out there! Our closest amusement park (about 40-45mins away but still within our metro) is closing tomorrow for the season. Normally it would have Halloween, then close again then reopen around Thanksgiving through Christmas/New Years time for Winterfest on the weekends (something started several years ago). They cited the uncertainty with respects to the pandemic for closing at Labor Day for the season. But I don't know anyone who went to the amusement park this year so not sure how the experience was. The water park next door to it never opened for the season.

Good information in your post too, the herd immunity part something I think to really keep an eye on. I feel like that has gone back and forth from is it possible to is it not possible; seems like other countries think it's possible whereas that thought process kinda went away in the States. The percentages you quoted are very interesting, I feel like in the past the numbers were listed as needing to be much much higher if herd immunity was even possible.

Herd Immunity approach here hasn't lined up with the political agenda and doesn't make big pharma money like drugs and vaccines.
 
So yesterday was a big day here in Victoria, Australia with the Premier announcing the road map for the next few months. It is a lot to process and a lot of people aren't happy. However, the modelling showed that if we open too early there is too great a risk (60% risk) that we would be back in lockdown by Christmas. This plan is really to ensure that we can have a normal Christmas and summer and be allowed back into the other states and hopefully even into an international bubble ASAP.

This is the plan for metropolitan Melbourne (regional Victoria will reopen a bit faster), although we were told today that the dates could be brought forward if the numbers drop faster than predicted:

Current restrictions:
Curfew: 8pm to 5am
4 reasons to leave home: Exercise (for a max of 1 hour with only 1 other person within 5km from home); essential shopping (by yourself within 5km from home or the closest store; most retail stores are required to be closed); medical care or caregiving; working if you have a permit.
No religious services are permitted; funerals are capped at 10 people (excluding infants under 12 months and those required to conduct the funeral); weddings only permitted for compassionate grounds with up to 5 people.
Schools all closed
Childcare only available for permitted workers

First step: From 11:59pm on 13 September
Curfew changed to start at 9pm (remember, we are going into summer so the days are getting longer)
People who live alone or single parents can nominate 1 person to be in their 'bubble' and can have them to visit and visit them (even if their nominated person lives with others)
Exercise increased to 2 hours (and can be taken in 2 sessions)
Households or 2 people from different households can gather outside for other recreation for up to 2 hours
Playgrounds to open

Second step: From 28 September provided average daily case rate over 14 days is below 50
Up to 5 people from 2 households can gather outside
Childcare available for everyone
Staged return to school for prep to grade 2 and year 11 and 12 (plus any year 10 students doing a year 11 subject) and specialist schools

Third step: From 26 October provided average daily case rate over 14 days is below 5 and there are less than 5 cases of unknown origin over the last 14 days
No curfew
No restrictions on reasons to leave home
Public gatherings up to 10 people
Can enter a 'household bubble' with another household and have up to 5 visitors (excluding infants) from that household
Potential staged return to school for remaining students
Retail and hairdressing (but not other beauty) reopens
Hospitality re-opens, primarily outdoors, with group limits of 10 and density limits
Outdoor sport permitted, skate parks reopen
Outdoor religious services for up to 10 people, weddings capped at 10, funerals capped at 20
Outdoor entertainment venues and events permitted (with an approved plan)
Accommodation allowed
Private real estate inspections and outdoor auctions

Last step: From 23 November provided no new cases for 14 days
Public gatherings up to 50 people
Up to 20 visitors to your home
Hospitality with group limits of 20 and cap of 50 indoors with density limits outdoors
Beauty and personal care open
All real estate services as normal with record keeping and safety measures
Weddings and funerals capped at 50 people (20 if at a private residence), religious services subject to density limits
Indoor and outdoor entertainment venues open subject to density limits; large events treated on an individual basis

COVID normal: No new cases for 28 days
No restrictions, but various safety measures and record keeping requirements
OK then - we've finally got a government out-and-out saying zero cases is the only acceptable goal. :sad1: I fear other countries will not be far behind in revealing this absurd end-game and I pray Canada is not one of them.
 
OK then - we've finally got a government out-and-out saying zero cases is the only acceptable goal. :sad1: I fear other countries will not be far behind in revealing this absurd end-game and I pray Canada is not one of them.
But is anyone really surprised?
 
But is anyone really surprised?
:( IKD...I guess I would have to say shocked and appalled is more the correct term and I'm not sure if that's the same as surprised. I've kind of awaited this type of announcement with dread but maybe thought/hoped it wouldn't actually ever come?

I've spent some time this morning on the Worldometer chart and when you look at the number of "serious cases" compared to the number of active cases in literally any country in the world, the number is tiny - double digits in many places. (I'm presuming serious cases mean patients in ICU but it doesn't specify). While I certainly wish Godspeed to everyone everywhere suffering at that level, to me, the Australian Solution is an untenable response.

:eek: I really don't know how I would feel or what the nation-wide reaction would be if it came to that here in Canada. We currently have 6,393 active cases, 54 of which are counted as "serious" in a population of 38,000,000 sparsely distributed over the world'd 2nd largest land-mass.
 
:( IKD...I guess I would have to say shocked and appalled is more the correct term and I'm not sure if that's the same as surprised. I've kind of awaited this type of announcement with dread but maybe thought/hoped it wouldn't actually ever come?

I've spent some time this morning on the Worldometer chart and when you look at the number of "serious cases" compared to the number of active cases in literally any country in the world, the number is tiny - double digits in many places. (I'm presuming serious cases mean patients in ICU but it doesn't specify). While I certainly wish Godspeed to everyone everywhere suffering at that level, to me, the Australian Solution is an untenable response.

:eek: I really don't know how I would feel or what the nation-wide reaction would be if it came to that here in Canada. We currently have 6,393 active cases, 54 of which are counted as "serious" in a population of 38,000,000 sparsely distributed over the world'd 2nd largest land-mass.
I think the zero case goal is an admirable one. A goal I wish Canada has strived for early on. Itā€™s probably not possible any more. For those families that have high risk individuals in them, the zero case goal would have provided great relief. Even cases that donā€™t end in death can leave people marred for life. So yes, I wish our government and population demonstrated the grit early on to aim for zero cases. Instead, we are living this half life, masking, avoiding being near each other, probably for many months to come. These public health measures currently in place may become a new reality every fall and winter. So zero case goal? I would have applauded it.

You say you wish Godspeed to those people suffering with severe cases, which is fine, but they are just words. I bet if you had a loved one or you yourself suffered at that level, the zero case goal would look more attractive. My reality is my husband will probably die if he catches Covid. I would have liked to have seen better containment early on.
 
But what future is there with a zero case goal if we donā€™t get a vaccine? Or even a vaccine thatā€™s only as effective as say the flu vaccine? Covid isnā€™t going anywhere. Itā€™s here. If you succeed at getting 0 cases, you can never allow international travel or if will be right back. It doesnā€™t make logical sense to me.
 
I think the zero case goal is an admirable one. A goal I wish Canada has strived for early on. Itā€™s probably not possible any more. For those families that have high risk individuals in them, the zero case goal would have provided great relief. Even cases that donā€™t end in death can leave people marred for life. So yes, I wish our government and population demonstrated the grit early on to aim for zero cases. Instead, we are living this half life, masking, avoiding being near each other, probably for many months to come. These public health measures currently in place may become a new reality every fall and winter. So zero case goal? I would have applauded it.

You say you wish Godspeed to those people suffering with severe cases, which is fine, but they are just words. I bet if you had a loved one or you yourself suffered at that level, the zero case goal would look more attractive. My reality is my husband will probably die if he catches Covid. I would have liked to have seen better containment early on.
:flower3: I do understand your worry - honestly I do, as best as anyone who is not directly in the situation can. And the reality is most of us are not. But zero cases at the expense of what Australia is doing? And if Canada had achieved zero cases at one singular point in time, what happens when another case emerges as is inevitable unless severe restrictions are permanent.

Although I do not have anyone of particular risk in my household (DH is 66 but statistically, that's nowhere near a Covid death sentence in and of itself), I have close loved ones in that category in various locations across Canada. To a person, they all feel extremely responsible for their own safety and are taking what they believe to be the necessary degrees of precaution. I'm positive none of them even fathom a complete eradication of the virus based on restrictions alone.

I'm asking this humbly and sincerely, without a hint of snark - what do you personally think should be happening right now?
 
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