Marathon Weekend 2023

[Kerry1957]

OK - To all my fellow Marathon Weekend conspiracy theorists. It has now been a week since the registration debacle. Do any of us find it odd that there has yet to be one peep from anyone on here or the other social media groups/outlets about any of the races opening up - even for a few minutes?? Usually by now there would be a few "Hey, the 5K is open" or "the Full is open", etc. and then it is gone almost as soon as it opened. But I find it interesting that we haven't seen any posts about any of the races being open at all. Thoughts?

I'll share with you the real story. I got it from a part-time Disney bus driver so I know it's absolutely spot on!

OK, so nobody really knows anything, but here is my guess. runDisney is purposely keeping a low profile until they figure out what to do. We don't know what options are even available but could include:

1. Do nothing; all the bibs available have been sold
2. Release some of the bibs they held back on registration day (if they did), either a few at a time, or all at once
3. Increase the field by perhaps 5,000 for each race and have a supplemental registration. I can't imagine their IT system is capable of identifying who was in the original queue and started registration when the sell-out occurred, or that runDisney would even attempt to even if possible
4. Open up spots for new and renewing platinum Club runDisney folks who have not already signed up for a race
5. Other options or variations on these options

My guess is most likely #1, or maybe #2. It would be very interesting to see the response to #4, both from the Clubbers and the non-Clubbers

 

[jpeterson]

I'll share with you the real story. I got it from a part-time Disney bus driver so I know it's absolutely spot on!

OK, so nobody really knows anything, but here is my guess. runDisney is purposely keeping a low profile until they figure out what to do. We don't know what options are even available but could include:

1. Do nothing; all the bibs available have been sold
2. Release some of the bibs they held back on registration day (if they did), either a few at a time, or all at once
3. Increase the field by perhaps 5,000 for each race and have a supplemental registration. I can't imagine their IT system is capable of identifying who was in the original queue and started registration when the sell-out occurred, or that runDisney would even attempt to even if possible
4. Open up spots for new and renewing platinum Club runDisney folks who have not already signed up for a race
5. Other options or variations on these options

My guess is most likely #1, or maybe #2. It would be very interesting to see the response to #4, both from the Clubbers and the non-Clubbers

I think it's going to be #1. Unless they were still restricting the field for COVID restrictions and decide to expand it, but I doubt it.

It would be nice if they addressed the issue though, just so we could all stop speculating.

 

[Ariel484]

I'll share with you the real story. I got it from a part-time Disney bus driver so I know it's absolutely spot on!

OK, so nobody really knows anything, but here is my guess. runDisney is purposely keeping a low profile until they figure out what to do. We don't know what options are even available but could include:

1. Do nothing; all the bibs available have been sold
2. Release some of the bibs they held back on registration day (if they did), either a few at a time, or all at once
3. Increase the field by perhaps 5,000 for each race and have a supplemental registration. I can't imagine their IT system is capable of identifying who was in the original queue and started registration when the sell-out occurred, or that runDisney would even attempt to even if possible
4. Open up spots for new and renewing platinum Club runDisney folks who have not already signed up for a race
5. Other options or variations on these options

My guess is most likely #1, or maybe #2. It would be very interesting to see the response to #4, both from the Clubbers and the non-Clubbers

time (or tinfoil hat time?):

My guess is (1), and *if* something changes - they release additional bibs or whatever, which I sort of don’t expect they will - they won’t do that until Princess registration is done in mid-June or whatever.

Princess weekend is popular and 2023 will be the 15th anniversary of the half (and I assume the 5K) and the 10th anniversary of the challenge (thus also the 10th 10K). So assuming anniversary weekends really do have an effect on registration numbers, they’re going to get slammed again, albeit on a slightly smaller scale with one less race and one challenge available instead of two. I would hope they’re focusing on making registration for that event go a lot more smoothly before potentially re-opening anything for Marathon Weekend.

 

[camaker]

OK - To all my fellow Marathon Weekend conspiracy theorists. It has now been a week since the registration debacle. Do any of us find it odd that there has yet to be one peep from anyone on here or the other social media groups/outlets about any of the races opening up - even for a few minutes?? Usually by now there would be a few "Hey, the 5K is open" or "the Full is open", etc. and then it is gone almost as soon as it opened. But I find it interesting that we haven't seen any posts about any of the races being open at all. Thoughts?

My unsophisticated and over-simplified thought on this is that they opened registration, got swamped with unanticipated demand and sold out all the bibs they had for general sale. Nothing has come back open because there isn't anything left to sell. As a general rule, when shorter distances have reopened in the past for most any race weekend there have been unsold challenge bibs available to split up or, much closer to the race weekend, charities have been allowed to return some of their unsold allotment for general sale. I think the flooding of charities with demand for bibs both confirms the unprecedented (of late) interest in the weekend and is a sign that there likely won't be many, if any, bibs returned for sale later.

I think it's going to be #1. Unless they were still restricting the field for COVID restrictions and decide to expand it, but I doubt it.

It would be nice if they addressed the issue though, just so we could all stop speculating.

I doubt they see a need to address anything. They opened registration and it sold out. End of story. They're not going to get involved in trying to stamp out conspiracy theories.

The only thing I have seen about the bib release issue comes from one person I've seen regularly on social media who seems to have inside info (consistently over the years, not just now) who has said that his sources tell him that the entire allotment of bibs was released as normal for registration. A portion was not held back.

I think the only way we see any significant number of new bibs hitting the streets is if RunDisney decides to expand the size of the field, which I think they'll be reluctant to after the crowding feedback they got after this past Marathon Weekend.

 

[huskies90]

From my data, 2018 HM had 27663 assigned bibs, 2019 HM had 25145 assigned bibs, 2020 HM had 26513 assigned bibs, and 2022 HM had 16400 assigned bibs.

Based on this information, my guess is that they are probably holding back capacity since they clearly did in 2022 for whatever reason. Now, whether they release it or not is a different story. I don't believe they will. This is just the new trend with Disney right now: to control supply and increase demand. I get that there is tremendous post Covid pent-up demand but just looking at the new park reservation system, we are seeing parks "sell out" seemingly every week. Does that mean they are at capacity all the time? I don't think so. Before the park reservation system we would MAYBE see Magic Kingdom hit capacity here and there like at a holiday. It just doesn't make sense that now it happens almost every day - post Covid built up demand or not.

 

[huskies90]

The only thing I have seen about the bib release issue comes from one person I've seen regularly on social media who seems to have inside info (consistently over the years, not just now) who has said that his sources tell him that the entire allotment of bibs was released as normal for registration. A portion was not held back.

Does this person have any insight as to why there were 10,000 less half marathon bibs in 2022 compared to 2018-2020? The half marathon did "sell out" in 2022, remember?

 

[jpeterson]

Based on this information, my guess is that they are probably holding back capacity since they clearly did in 2022 for whatever reason. Now, whether they release it or not is a different story. I don't believe they will. This is just the new trend with Disney right now: to control supply and increase demand. I get that there is tremendous post Covid pent-up demand but just looking at the new park reservation system, we are seeing parks "sell out" seemingly every week. Does that mean they are at capacity all the time? I don't think so. Before the park reservation system we would MAYBE see Magic Kingdom hit capacity here and there like at a holiday. It just doesn't make sense that now it happens almost every day - post Covid built up demand or not.

I assume the 2022 numbers were lower because of COVID restrictions. Maybe that means that 2023 was still restricted as well and that's why they sold out so fast (increased demand plus fewer bibs equals big mess). But unfortunately we don't know number of registrations until after the race when the results are released (as far as I know).

 

[camaker]

Does this person have any insight as to why there were 10,000 less half marathon bibs in 2022 compared to 2018-2020? The half marathon did "sell out" in 2022, remember?

I'm not sure what RunDisney selling a reduced field size for the 2022 half marathon has to do with how quickly they sold out the 2023 half marathon. I think it was pretty widely speculated here at the time that Marathon Weekend 2022 probably wasn't a 100% full field because there was still a lot of COVID uncertainty. We don't know how many bibs were allocated for sale for the 2023 race. The only information I got was that they sold all the bibs they planned to offer for the 2023 races. Is that a full pre-COVID sized race? Have they standardized on the smaller field size due to construction constraints on course capacity? Were they asked to limit the size to some extent because things are already crowded at the parks in general with the 50th? We don't have the answer to any of those questions.

 

[fatmanatee]

Worth noting that the NYC Marathon was capped at 30k participants last year, I think it's usually 50-60k (and I think it's back to that level this year). So this isn't just a RD thing.

 

[nekonekoneko]

So I'm booked for Dopey but was also thinking of signing up for the Disney Wish cruise right after the races. However, it looks like the Castaway Cay 5K is already sold out? Has it sold out in previous years? What are the chances they will open up more slots for the Castaway Cay 5K?

The only reason for any kind of expanded demand for the CC was it wasn't there this year. I was on that cruise, and was rather disappointed that the challenge wasn't being offered. That might be the only reason there's more demand for the upcoming cruise. But the challenge never ever sold out until MW23.

 

[Barca33Runner]

I’m also of the opinion that there is no conspiracy to embrace. They sold out everything they intended to sell, there are no challenge bibs to break up, and unless they decide to expand the field at a later date (which we can only speculate on the plausibility of or their inclination toward) there will be no further bibs available.

I’m pretty cynical about all things Disney but I think this is what it looks like.

 

[The Expert]

4. Open up spots for new and renewing platinum Club runDisney folks who have not already signed up for a race

My guess is most likely #1, or maybe #2. It would be very interesting to see the response to #4, both from the Clubbers and the non-Clubbers

Due to the weirdness of how the Club rD membership year works, this couldn't happen until at least October. Let me 'splain. The Club membership year is Oct 1 to Sept 30, meaning you get registration benefits for registrations happening during that period regardless of when the race weekend is. You get in-person race weekend benefits for any races happening in that period, regardless of your status during registration.

Hence, a new member who joins May 3 or someone who recently upgraded to a level with guaranteed or early registration would not realize any of those benefits until October 1. So they could not take advantage of spots opening up for them until then.

 

[jpeterson]

Due to the weirdness of how the Club rD membership year works, this couldn't happen until at least October. Let me 'splain. The Club membership year is Oct 1 to Sept 30, meaning you get registration benefits for registrations happening during that period regardless of when the race weekend is. You get in-person race weekend benefits for any races happening in that period, regardless of your status during registration.

Hence, a new member who joins May 3 or someone who recently upgraded to a level with guaranteed or early registration would not realize any of those benefits until October 1. So they could not take advantage of spots opening up for them until then.

Yup. That calendar weirdness is the reason I don't buy into the conspiracy that this is all to sell memberships.

 

[RunWI1265]

I have the same goal as you for #4 (I already strength train, otherwise I would say that that's a goal as well - very important!). I wonder what kind of pace one would need to take a picture with every character and still make it under 5 hours. I finished at 5:18 and stopped for 22 pictures.

I did 5:10 and I only stopped for 6 pictures and 1 bathroom. My watch also said I ran 27.19 miles so I’m *very* bad at math but I’d say 10:xx would get under 5 with pictures Really narrowing it down and could be way off…I know

We are eyeballing a spring break trip with kiddo a few months, which I know will be better than a race weekend for a family trip, so it’s not like we won’t all be there together at some point.

Having another trip planned definitely helps. Also coming home with snacks and souvenirs and I’ll also add, that I was wishing they were there sometimes. But I cannot imagine attempting to get to bed early, wake early, race, etc while making sure my family’s needs were also taken care of. That would be hard.

 

[kps7795]

I did 5:10 and I only stopped for 6 pictures and 1 bathroom. My watch also said I ran 27.19 miles so I’m *very* bad at math but I’d say 10:xx would get under 5 with pictures Really narrowing it down and could be way off…I know


Having another trip planned definitely helps. Also coming home with snacks and souvenirs and I’ll also add, that I was wishing they were there sometimes. But I cannot imagine attempting to get to bed early, wake early, race, etc while making sure my family’s needs were also taken care of. That would be hard.

We might need to bring in the might of @DopeyBadger for some insight.

 

[DopeyBadger]

I have the same goal as you for #4 (I already strength train, otherwise I would say that that's a goal as well - very important!). I wonder what kind of pace one would need to take a picture with every character and still make it under 5 hours. I finished at 5:18 and stopped for 22 pictures.

We might need to bring in the might of @DopeyBadger for some insight.

I think what you're looking for is the maximal pace to be able to run sub-5 and to stop for 22 pictures. I think the answer is going to be fairly indeterminable since the amount of time it takes to stop for any one character picture is variable race to race and year to year. The best way to get a general idea would be to look at your 2022 MW data and see when you stopped for the 22 pictures and how long each stop was. Add up the stopped time and compare it to the +18 min you were from 5 hours in 2022. Use that to determine maximal goal pace.

 

[camaker]

I did 5:10 and I only stopped for 6 pictures and 1 bathroom. My watch also said I ran 27.19 miles so I’m *very* bad at math but I’d say 10:xx would get under 5 with pictures Really narrowing it down and could be way off…I know

We might need to bring in the might of @DopeyBadger for some insight.

I think what you're looking for is the maximal pace to be able to run sub-5 and to stop for 22 pictures. I think the answer is going to be fairly indeterminable since the amount of time it takes to stop for any one character picture is variable race to race and year to year. The best way to get a general idea would be to look at your 2022 MW data and see when you stopped for the 22 pictures and how long each stop was. Add up the stopped time and compare it to the +18 min you were from 5 hours in 2022. Use that to determine maximal goal pace.

I'd say your best is to leave your watch running during the character stops and monitor your overall pace. You need to run 11:27/mile to stay under a 5h marathon. I'd really call it more like an 11:00/mile pace on that course with the crowding, width and detours to the characters to be safe. Keep your overall pace around or under 11:00/mile and if you start to slip above it at some point due to the character stops you'll have to decide on the fly what's more important, the characters or the 5h time.

 

[kps7795]

I'd say your best is to leave your watch running during the character stops and monitor your overall pace. You need to run 11:27/mile to stay under a 5h marathon. I'd really call it more like an 11:00/mile pace on that course with the crowding, width and detours to the characters to be safe. Keep your overall pace around or under 11:00/mile and if you start to slip above it at some point due to the character stops you'll have to decide on the fly what's more important, the characters or the 5h time.

That's really interesting. I stopped my watch at every stop because I thought that it would be better for tracking my average pace. Thank you both for your input.

 

[PrincessV]

That's really interesting. I stopped my watch at every stop because I thought that it would be better for tracking my average pace. Thank you both for your input.

FWIW, I run a Garmin watch and the iSmoothRun app on my phone for races: the Garmin never pauses, so I know my actual elapsed time/pace including stops, while I let my phone app auto-pause so later I can see what pace I was actually moving at while moving.

 

[DopeyBadger]

That's really interesting. I stopped my watch at every stop because I thought that it would be better for tracking my average pace. Thank you both for your input.

If you stopped your watch at every stop, then compare your final time to the official final time. The difference is your character stops. You can use that to calculate what pace would have been needed minus the additional 18 minutes you were over by.