Various thoughts, in no particular order:
- I'm quite sure that Disney is overstating standby wait times. If not deliberately, they've at least made the conscious decision to not bring back the tap card system which continuously updated wait times before Covid. There's always been some element of ambiguity--standby times rely a lot on the number of FP/G+ users who enter the queue while you're waiting. But as a general rule, it's safe to assume a posted 40 minute wait is probably closer to 25-30.
- Based upon my own experiences and observations, most standby lines today are shorter than in the FP+ era. Prior to 2020, so much of ride capacity had been dedicated to FP+ that standby became truly oppressive. Even rides like POTC and Star Tours frequently had 45+ minute waits with FP+. Now those wait times are more of the outlier.
- The reduced standby time mostly benefits second and third tier attractions.
- For top tier attractions, wait times seem to be more a case of "water finding its own level." The Disney community has collectively decided that 60-90 minutes is the maximum acceptable wait time for things like 7DMT, RNR, TOT, FOP, etc. Despite the fact that less capacity is dedicated to G+ / LL, there are more people getting in Standby which keeps those wait times around that same level.
- I don't really buy the idea that Disney trips have "gotten more complicated" with respect to
Genie+. Pre-Covid, people had to start thinking about dining reservations 6 months in advance and rides 2 months in advance. FP+ had 3 per day limit, tiered attractions, etc. There are certain aspects of Genie which are worse than FP (and some which are better), but overall they're just different flavors of ice cream.
- Things like Park Pass and the 2pm park hopping restriction do actually complicate things. (Though, under the old system everyone was taking about meals 6 months out and rides 2 months out--I don't really see where park planning is all that cumbersome. It's just an extra step in the process.)
- Like many systems, FP+ benefitted those who best understood how it worked. Those who were on their computers at 6am 60 days out could book Slinky, RNR and Runaway Railway without a problem. Those who didn't understand FP+, were staying off-site or had the gall to make a spur of the moment decision to visit the parks found themselves left with the likes of Star Tours, Alien Saucers and Muppetvision.
- Similarly, Genie+ works best if you have some understanding of which rides are most popular, how quickly they sell, out, etc. You can't expect to open the app after 2pm and find a pass for Remy or Slinky.
- Genie+ makes most sense to purchase on a day when you specifically plan to load-up on attractions. It's not unrealistic to get 8 or 10 or 12 Genie attractions in a single day. Do that once or twice over the course of a trip, and take a more laid-back approach to the non-Genie days.
- FP+ was much better if you prefer to consume theme parks in small bites. And especially if you wish to arrive later in the day. Genie+ practically forces people to arrive at opening to make the most of their day.
- FP+ seemed to do a better job of spreading out crowds throughout the day. Someone who schedules their three FP rides for 4, 5 and 6PM has no great reason to arrive before that. With Genie+, crowds seem more slanted toward the morning and early afternoon. Within the last 3-4 hours of any park's operating day, 5-10 minute waits seem commonplace for second and third tier attractions.
- Business at the theme parks now is certainly slower than 2022. But it's impossible to gauge how that translates with regard to profitability. Bounce back offers, "free dining", AP discount and more were all commonplace in 2019 and before.
- Would Disney be doing "better" if prices were lower? I guess that depends on your measure. They'd get more people in the parks. But lower prices means less profit margin on every unit sold. This isn't a precise equation but if you charge 20% less and attract 20% more customers, you're basically expending extra effort to make the same amount of money.
- Right now it's en vogue to say "I'm reducing my visits to the Disney Parks because of reasons X, Y and Z." What we don't know is if there are other people who are increasing their visits because of similar factors (Disney politics, low crowds, hotel discounts, dining plans returning, etc.)
- Disney went out of its way to get fat off the spike in travel demand that occurred in 2021 and 2022. And it worked. Discounting when things are slow is nothing new. It remains to be seen if this slow period will be any different than others, prompted by Disney alienating too many "core customers."
