Cases rising or dropping by you?

[JimMIA]

I've bolded, italicized and underlined the simple solution. Our country is failing it's citizens in a phenomenal and historic way.

I think you actually erased what you were trying to emphasize. You may want to go back and edit.

But what you're talking about is a deliberate, politically-motivated decision in an election year.

To the question of reopening or not reopening schools, there are no simple answers. There are risks and rewards to all of the alternatives.

I don't envy the governors and school boards making these decisions -- they're in a tough spot, and they're all just trying to do what's best for their communities.

If there are any political heroes in these troubled times, it's the thousands of mayors, governors, city and county commissioners, and school board leaders (of all parties and persuasions) who have simply tried to do what's right at the local level.

 

[penn19]

There are huge challenges for those children you describe, even in the classroom setting. My area schools are providing meals (Breakfast and Lunch) and have been during the entire Covid crisis. As school began, they passed out Chromebooks and have set up wi-fi hotspots for those disadvantaged children.

The underlying medical conditions that they are seeing in children is #1 Obesity, #2 Chronic Lung Disease and #3 Prematurity. The CDC estimates there are about 13.7 million obese children between the ages of 2 and 19 in this country.

If you look at the statistics generated by the American Academy of Pediatrics each week, you will see that children are becoming increasingly more susceptible to Covid and it's because they are now out of their homes more, especially since some schools have restarted. Back in May, 28 children died a week from Covid. Their 2 most recent weekly reports, show over 100 children died each week. There are many, many schools home studying virtually and if they weren't, I wonder what the number would be? Perhaps we will find out how many children we are willing to sacrifice in the next 3-4 weeks.

To think there is no other way to educate our children rather than send them to a school building that may be inadequate to protect them from a harmful disease, is incredible to me in a technologically advanced society in 2020.

There are solutions that don't require putting children in harms way, but our society would rather look to the most simple ones that require minimum effort.

100 kids a week?! From the CDC I got this information and it was updated as of September https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

 

[wombat_5606]

I think you actually erased what you were trying to emphasize. You may want to go back and edit.

But what you're talking about is a deliberate, politically-motivated decision in an election year.

To the question of reopening or not reopening schools, there are no simple answers. There are risks and rewards to all of the alternatives.

I don't envy the governors and school boards making these decisions -- they're in a tough spot, and they're all just trying to do what's best for their communities.

If there are any political heroes in these troubled times, it's the thousands of mayors, governors, city and county commissioners, and school board leaders (of all parties and persuasions) who have simply tried to do what's right at the local level.

I meant to emphasize Congress, which appears to me to be emphasized. If they had passed any meaningful financial assistance and instruction to it's citizens, we would be in a far better shape. Many other countries have done it.

You and I can agree that there are no simple answers.

I agree that there are local politicians that are doing right. There are many that are not, but there is no excuse at all for putting our children in a vulnerable position.

Those children that "only" get sick, come home at the end of the school day and interact with their parents and/or grandparents. Those people go to work and they interact with large numbers of people. Meanwhile the low paying single parent all of a sudden has her child home with Covid and if she doesn't get it herself, she has to stay home from that low paying job to take care of that child. Meanwhile the low paying job where she is employed decides he can't put up with her constant absence due to either her child being sick and needing to QT or every time her child comes into contact with another classmate with Covid and now has to QT again (which forces another QT), decides to fire her. If she is in Florida, she is in dire straits once again. What has been accomplished?

No simple answers but not enough people are trying hard enough to come up with sensible ones.

 

[wombat_5606]

100 kids a week?! From the CDC I got this information and it was updated as of September https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

The CDC is politized.

Go to the American Academy of Pediatrics.

https://downloads.aap.org/AAP/PDF/A...d COVID-19 State Data Report 9.3.20 FINAL.pdf

 

[Colleen27]

To the question of reopening or not reopening schools, there are no simple answers. There are risks and rewards to all of the alternatives.

I don't envy the governors and school boards making these decisions -- they're in a tough spot, and they're all just trying to do what's best for their communities.

If there are any political heroes in these troubled times, it's the thousands of mayors, governors, city and county commissioners, and school board leaders (of all parties and persuasions) who have simply tried to do what's right at the local level.

That's very true... but there's also a profound disconnect between the lived reality of the people who are making these decisions at all levels and the lives of those who lose the most from schools remaining closed. And while classroom teachers and building principals are often very aware of that disconnect, too many of the superintendents and mayors and governors very clearly are not. They're making rules from their upper middle class urban/suburban perspective and too often failing to account for those coming from places without internet, without stability, without reliable food or shelter. And I think that spans all levels, from the locals making decisions based on the assumption that online learning is more inconvenience than actual hardship to our Congress feeling no apparent urgency to address the intersection of financial crises that the virus has caused.

 

[lifesavacation]

The CDC is politized.

Go to the American Academy of Pediatrics.

https://downloads.aap.org/AAP/PDF/AAP and CHA - Children and COVID-19 State Data Report 9.3.20 FINAL.pdf

Your link shows cumulative child deaths at 103. That’s very different than 100 a week.

 

[wombat_5606]

Your link shows cumulative child deaths at 103. That’s very different than 100 a week.

My bad, I misread it. Thanks! I'll edit my post.

 

[Pyotr]

Sigh. If only this were true.

https://downloads.aap.org/AAP/PDF/A...d COVID-19 State Data Report 9.3.20 FINAL.pdf
I stand by my comment.

 

[JimMIA]

Here are the most recent numbers for Florida. Same story, different day -- the cases continue at a low level, positivity rates are good...but still a long way to go to zero.

The one big spike shown below on Aug 31 was Quest Diagnostics reporting 75,000 test results going back to APRIL! A crazy bit of incompetence by one of the biggest labs in the US.

 

[TJA]

We've been in a very cold covid-hit area of New York State this whole time....until right before school started when we suddenly had 2 breakouts. However, one has already been dealt with. It's a factory where approx 52 tested positive plus 21 positive family members. It only took a week and now only 4 are still positive and all at home waiting for a negative. From what I understand, none of them are sick with symptoms. We had something similar happen here about 2 months ago where all factory employees were tested so they could return to work after the shut-down and an overwhelming amount tested positive and nobody had symptoms. Long story short, they all ended up back at work but some had a tough time getting 2 negative tests in a row and kept flip-flopping positive to negative to positive to negative, etc. I think the rule has since changed and now only one negative test is needed.

Our other breakout is a college. Still several positives there. I don't have first-hand knowledge on this one, but I've read the kids were having Covid parties to see who could catch it first. Then the winner was given a certain amount of cash.

No hospitalizations due to all that. In fact, no reported symptoms either.

Our entire county has 2 current hospitalizations, both had scheduled health procedures and had to have a Covid test before and both tested positive (without symptoms), so they are in a separate part of hospital waiting to get a negative reading. Hope their health doesn't deteriorate in the meantime before they get a negative test!

 

[JimMIA]

The Orange County numbers also look good.

Two things in particular surprise me. One is that there has been no big surge with the local colleges reopening in late August. Most of them resumed classes on August 24, and UCF alone has almost 70,000 students.

The other is, not only did the new cases not jump, the age of new patients has increased. 4-6 weeks ago, Orange County's median new patient age was 29. Looks like the college kids aren't contributing that much to the mix.



And the positivity rate looks very good:

 

[TJA]

Here are the most recent numbers for Florida. Same story, different day -- the cases continue at a low level, positivity rates are good...but still a long way to go to zero.

The one big spike shown below on Aug 31 was Quest Diagnostics reporting 75,000 test results going back to APRIL! A crazy bit of incompetence by one of the biggest labs in the US.

View attachment 525753

View attachment 525750

So Florida has to be very close to coming off New York's list. The list is updated every Tuesday so each week I jump to the site to see if Florida is off. There are 2 criteria and Florida has to be below the 10% positivity rate, so it must be the other one Florida can't seem to surpass (the one about 10 per 100,000). 7-day rolling average.

 

[JimMIA]

So Florida has to be very close to coming off New York's list. The list is updated every Tuesday so each week I jump to the site to see if Florida is off. There are 2 criteria and Florida has to be below the 10% positivity rate, so it must be the other one Florida can't seem to surpass (the one about 10 per 100,000). 7-day rolling average.

Yes, Florida has been well below 10% positivity for a long time...even with the big Quest Diagnostics mess.

I don't know what the 10/100,000 metric even means, but I assume the NY website explains it.

 

[DisneyOma]

For schools it is far more complicated. Not every child has access to a computer and internet. There are many children who are poor and struggle getting meals. How do you expect these children to learn? How do you expect the parents of these children to help them learn when a) they don’t understand the material, or b) they’re unavailable to help?

It it easy for someone to say “keep the kids home and distance learn,” when they don’t see things from a different perspective.

Children, unless they have severe underlying medical conditions, are not in danger from the coronavirus.

First of all, that's a terribly stark choice that probably very very few parents would have to make.

I'll give you a much more common predicament parents face.

Single mom, low job skills, just getting by before Covid.

She's been out of work for six months, and has subsisted only on her unemployment and the $600 supplement the federal government provided. That $600 payment has now expired, and Congress is not even negotiating to replace it. The President created a temporary $300 supplement by executive order, but that was only for 6 weeks and that's expiring now as well.

The mom has no income, no savings, and can't return to work or get a job because she has nobody to take care of the kids.

She is now facing eviction from her apartment, and that federal protection is now also expiring and Congress isn't even talking about a solution.

Her employer wants her to come back to work, and is at the point where they will replace her if she can't return. They need her back; their business is suffering because they have a lot of employees in the same boat. The business could fail, putting many more people out of work.

She and her children are going to be homeless in a few weeks.

This example is not one Mom. This is millions of real people, and this is why these problems are not as simplistic as we sometimes think.

People were complaining before that the low skills people working minimum wage jobs were getting a windfall with that extra $600 a week. What happened to that windfall, or was that not true? A friend's son got that $600 on top of the $375 of his regular unemployment, and banked quite a nice amount. So now I'm confused. Unemployment gives you about half of your usual income, so that $600 would only be less than a full paycheck if you made more than $1200 a week, or about $62K a year. I know it wasn't for a full year, but it was more than some people made weekly. But I do get that it is not simple. People have to work in order to fuel the big capitalistic society we've created. That's how it's done here. I feel like we could do this differently, but politics are not allowed to be discussed. Sometimes I feel like a sacrificial lamb to the altar of capitalism though. I know I can quit if I don't like it, but I've always loved my job. Just hoping not to die because of it.

 

[ReddOchtober]

I live in a continuing hotspot because the residents feel the masks are an intrusion on their rights and your health is your problem not theirs. Right now the area is recovering from hurricane Laura, and almost no one is masking, social distancing, there isn’t even potable water and 3/4 have no power; more have died from CO poisoning in the last few weeks than anything else. We came to Disney because it felt safer to be here from CO and COVID. We have friends who came after opening, and they did not get ill. Doesn’t mean it can’t happen. But tracing has not show a large outbreak according to the interviews and articles I’ve read. I work in OR, we intubate people all day; either I’m lucky or masking with distancing (there is no personal space in nursing or medicine) and hand hygiene protects you.

Maybe I’ve missed it, but I haven’t seem anyone report on the boards becoming ill from Disney after the reopening?

A friend works at WDW, and the people he knows working at WDW that became ill with COVID-19 did so from outside sources. Much the same with us at the hospital unless they were in ED or working directly with COVID patients all day, and even some of those haven’t become infected.

 

[anthony2k7]

Cases in UK spiralling out of control again. Definitely in wave 2. People just don't care. Complete outrage at new lockdown measures coming in tomorrow banning mixing in peoples homes over 6 people. Seems most will ignore it. Gov are apparently preparing letters to 4.5 million people telling them to shield (stay home indefinitely with no visitors).

Same occuring throughout a lot of Europe again as well.

 

[*DisneyDreamer]

In Wisconsin daily cases have exploded. Four days in a row over 1,300. Some of it is being attributed to universities (UW-Madison closed down in-person instruction again for 2 weeks, not that it will do much if bars remain open - Madison is a notorious party school), and Milwaukee County where I am has remained relatively stable, but it’s discouraging. Hospitalization numbers are going to be important to look at the next couple weeks.

 

[DisneyOma]

Cases in UK spiralling out of control again. Definitely in wave 2. People just don't care. Complete outrage at new lockdown measures coming in tomorrow banning mixing in peoples homes over 6 people. Seems most will ignore it. Gov are apparently preparing letters to 4.5 million people telling them to shield (stay home indefinitely with no visitors).

Same occuring throughout a lot of Europe again as well.

Oh no! What do you think would happen if the powers that be there told people if they got COVID from a big gathering that your universal insurance wouldn't cover the medical costs? We've got a clause of something like that in our most recent memorandum of understanding in the district I work in. If we get COVID at work, we are covered; if we get it out partying, we are not.

 

[anthony2k7]

Oh no! What do you think would happen if the powers that be there told people if they got COVID from a big gathering that your universal insurance wouldn't cover the medical costs? We've got a clause of something like that in our most recent memorandum of understanding in the district I work in. If we get COVID at work, we are covered; if we get it out partying, we are not.

Yeah, I'd love that, but it would never happen with out health care system. I'd love it if they denied health care for smokers and drug users for example, but never gonna happen.

Its as you say, Universal, even to those who have arrived by boat illegally unfortunately.

 

[kdonnel]

So Florida has to be very close to coming off New York's list. The list is updated every Tuesday so each week I jump to the site to see if Florida is off. There are 2 criteria and Florida has to be below the 10% positivity rate, so it must be the other one Florida can't seem to surpass (the one about 10 per 100,000). 7-day rolling average.

Florida's seven day average appears to be 2566 at the moment. Depending on what NY pegs Florida's population at, it should some off the list around 2147 cases per day as a 7 day rolling average.

If the colleges test aggressively, it will be months and months and months and months before Florida drops off the NY list. If the colleges close one eye, turn their head, and squint, Florida might be off the list in a month or so at this pace.