Considering CFW, first time buyer

[AstroBlasters]

Can you tell I over analyze? lol. I am a numbers person and my husband is the one that goes by simply the "emotional value." I need to see the numbers to help US make a decision about purchasing.

I’ve read that some people have purchased a 25 point resale contract and as long as they are past ROFR (i.e have not even fully closed on the contract yet) DVC has let them buy into the new resorts at the member pre-sale incentive levels….

Perhaps you could pickup a 25 point contract to bank/borrow for SAPs and then the additional member incentives would nearly cover the cost of the contract and give you some flexibility every few years to try something new….

What’s nice is if you ever want to sell the original 25 point contract it usually goes pretty quickly.

 

[Sandisw]

Since we will be first time buyers into DVC, and don't have any other points from other home resorts, if we buy CFW, then our cost per point, assuming they are $225 pp divided by 50 years remaining = $4.50 plus dues are $12.15 per points it will cost $16.65 per point to use at other DVC resorts. Below is the cost it would be if we were to stay using CFW points at other DVC resorts, again this is only for comparison purposes. So in other words it would be unwise to use the CFW points at other resorts, even though it would definitely be possible if buying DIRECT. The issue would be the point charts for other resorts if we want to stay at a 1 bedroom will require more points than at the Fort while the cost per point plus dues is higher if we were buying resale at the older DVC resorts or buying DIRECT at the newer DVC resorts like Riviera.

Resort	Points needed for a 5 night stay mid Oct 2024	cost per 5 night stay using CFW points
Animal Kingdom	148	$2,464.20
Aulani	182	$3,030.30
Bay Lake Tower	173	$2,880.45
Beach Club	183	$2,880.45
Boardwalk	145	$2,414.25
Boulder Ridge	182	$3,030.30
Cabins at Fort Wilderness	113	$1,881.45
Copper Creek	182	$3,030.30
Disneyland Hotel	206	$3,030.30
Grand Californian	204	$3,396.60
Grand Floridian	223	$3,712.95
Hilton Head	152	$2,530.80
Old Key West	146	$2,430.90
Old Key West – Ext	146	$2,430.90
Polynesian (studio)	130	$2,164.50
Riviera Resort	206	$3,429.90
Saratoga Springs	154	$2,564.10
Vero Beach	113	$1,881.45

This is where we differ. I think it’s more important to own where one wants and not worry about the rest

What is the sense of buying a less expensive resort and not being able to stay where you want? Or, for the occasional stay elsewhere?

While analysis can be good, sometimes it can also be a bit overwhelming and become a bit of a roadblock for things in the future.

If owning CFW works for the times you want to be there and owning DVC in general makes sense, then maybe that is all the really matters?

 

[AwfulWaffle]

What is the sense of buying a less expensive resort and not being able to stay where you want? Or, for the occasional stay elsewhere?

Agreed. Thus the reason we don’t buy direct this past summer and I really wanted those cheap unrestricted points, I just wish they were anywhere else other than Grand Floridian, not a knock on the resort just not our flavor. If you love this place and can see you and your family here for at least the next 10-15 years then you should hit your break even point by then and still have tons of family memories at the campgrounds before you decide to sell. You do you

 

[Sandisw]

Agreed. Thus the reason we don’t buy direct this past summer and I really wanted those cheap unrestricted points, I just wish they were anywhere else other than Grand Floridian, not a knock on the resort just not our flavor. If you love this place and can see you and your family here for at least the next 10-15 years then you should hit your break even point by then and still have tons of family memories at the campgrounds before you decide to sell. You do you

It’s also why we didn’t just pick up more. We have 300 but the more we stay, the more we realize that RIv remains tops and if I am going to buy more, it’s going to be RIV.

Waiting for the Poly tower in case it somehow ends up not part of PVB and we find we like it.

 

[AwfulWaffle]

Waiting for the Poly tower in case it somehow ends up not part of PVB and we find we like it.

Same. We were overly optimistic it might be at the cabins but i assumed it would be on the high end of dues because of how large the resort is and the trailers themselves but it’s okay. I love my Christmas decorations so maybe I’ll get lucky at 7 months some time with our Poly 2 points

 

[tidefan]

Agreed. Thus the reason we don’t buy direct this past summer and I really wanted those cheap unrestricted points, I just wish they were anywhere else other than Grand Floridian, not a knock on the resort just not our flavor. If you love this place and can see you and your family here for at least the next 10-15 years then you should hit your break even point by then and still have tons of family memories at the campgrounds before you decide to sell. You do you

It’s also why we didn’t just pick up more. We have 300 but the more we stay, the more we realize that RIv remains tops and if I am going to buy more, it’s going to be RIV.

Waiting for the Poly tower in case it somehow ends up not part of PVB and we find we like it.

We are a bit different... After 17 years of DVC ownership and 5 different contracts, we've pretty much decided that it doesn't really matter where you own because we like all of the resorts, especially even (gasp!) SSR!

Everyone's circumstance will be different. There are people that feel the need to stay in the same place year after year and then there are people that want to stay at a different place every time they go and everything in-between. You need to decide where you are on that continuum.

For us, we've been fortunate enough to stay at every DVC property except VDH (just haven't had time to do that one yet). And yes, we have our favorites, but we'd really be happy to stay in any of them. They are all truly wonderful resorts, and each has its own charms. We would therefore fall into the "buy where you don't mind staying" category, which to us is most any of them. Yes, we have had a few one and done's (BWV and RIV are probably one and done for us), but we really enjoy all of the resorts.

I will tell you that for us, the game changer was Aulani. We went in 2012 when the resort opened for our "once in a lifetime" trip to Hawaii. Well, we absolutely loved it. As time went on (and especially once Southwest Airlines started flying to the islands) we have been fortunate enough to take 5 more "once in a lifetime" trips there. That is the real beauty of DVC. No way we would have done that otherwise. That said, we don't own there, and up to this point, it hasn't been too tricky to get a 2-bedroom there at 7 months (but June is coming darn near close).

So, if you are like us, it just may not matter to you where you stay. We do have one that we book at 11 months (BLT on Labor Day for MNSSHP), but other than that, we just often roll the dice. In fact, even though we own at VGF and PVB, we haven't used the 11 month window at either one since 2019.

For us (again, everyone is different), we would probably be better off if all of our points were BLT and SSR (and maybe AUL), but that's just us. I guess the bigger point is, just decide how you think you would travel and purchase accordingly. If you DO need something like Copper Creek or Beach Club every time, then definitely purchase there, but if not, it doesn't matter...

 

[Genie+]

Another thing about DVC is predicting ways your preferences might change 5 or 10+ years from now. This is a very individual aspect. Our own circumstances and experiences will matter most. This added value to direct for us since that gives more options in the future than resale. We may not know exactly we’ll want but it’s nice to know new resorts give us more choice.

 

[intamin]

Another thing about DVC is predicting ways your preferences might change 5 or 10+ years from now. This is a very individual aspect. Our own circumstances and experiences will matter most. This added value to direct for us since that gives more options in the future than resale. We may not know exactly we’ll want but it’s nice to know new resorts give us more choice.

Originally our plan was just to buy the minimum direct and then buy as much resale as possible. Now I don't think I'll be buying resale again unless it's VGC. We decided if we want to stay in a GV at RIV or VDH, we don't want to use up ALL 3 years of direct points in one go and then essentially be locked out of those resorts for that whole time.

 

[10CJ]

Since we will be first time buyers into DVC, and don't have any other points from other home resorts, if we buy CFW, then our cost per point, assuming they are $225 pp divided by 50 years remaining = $4.50 plus dues are $12.15 per points it will cost $16.65 per point to use at other DVC resorts. Below is the cost it would be if we were to stay using CFW points at other DVC resorts, again this is only for comparison purposes. So in other words it would be unwise to use the CFW points at other resorts, even though it would definitely be possible if buying DIRECT. The issue would be the point charts for other resorts if we want to stay at a 1 bedroom will require more points than at the Fort while the cost per point plus dues is higher if we were buying resale at the older DVC resorts or buying DIRECT at the newer DVC resorts like Riviera.

I am not following. If you want to stay somewhere else, how would you book that other stay? What would you do with your points? I have not rented points in years, but 16.65 per point to stay at most resorts seems like a pretty good deal.

 

[BL2020]

Have you stayed in many of the DVC resorts? I agree with tidefan, that there are nice things about each of them. OKW, has a laid back feel as well. I totally get get the buy where you want to stay, but also understand in this circumstance it is a can be a difficult argument. I would love to own at BWV, just cant justify the 2042 date. I also am skeptical that it would really be difficult to book CFW at 7 mths (except for peak times), I feel that it might be easier than many other resorts once a fair amount of pts have been sold. I just don't see most DVC owners booking there except for a one off. Are you somewhat flexible on dates? Do you need a direct benefits, another consideration. I own at BLT (resale) and VGF (direct on recent incentives), but those are not my favorite locations, though I don't mind staying at either. I've found I've been able to reserve my home resorts at 11 mths and often switch to more desirable one afterward. It might be a gamble, but getting a value priced lower point resale contract with a long horizon and lower dues, might work. BLT has pretty low resale right now. Still a risk and not really a popular opinion on these boards, but a possible consideration.

 

[intamin]

I am not following. If you want to stay somewhere else, how would you book that other stay? What would you do with your points? I have not rented points in years, but 16.65 per point to stay at most resorts seems like a pretty good deal.

16.65 is a good deal for renting because you're not losing that opportunity cost, it is NOT a good deal if you are an owner. My direct Riviera points cost about 12.7 per point. It's pretty easy to spend 3-400 points on a 2BR for a week at most resorts. That nearly 4 dollar difference amounts to 1600 dollars over the course of a week. With resale it's even worse because most people's points probably cost 10-11 dollars per point or so.

The one big thing CFW has going for it is it's point charts. You really do not need to own nearly as many points compared to if you own at VGF because there is no 1/2BR or Grand Villa. If you use the points anywhere else, you're paying a significant premium on your points because of the dues and obviously if you stay anywhere else, your cheap point chart isn't helping you.

That being said, if you only want to stay at the cabins, who cares? Buy at the cabins and don't look back. You might pay a little more if you use your points anywhere else, but if you're using them 80% of the time at the cabins and it gets you what you want then that's all that really matters and you're still coming out ahead either way.

 

[🍀TwinsMom]

Just my $0.02, but you are literally the only person who has written who is totally all in on CFW, at least that I have come across on the Disboards, and you have articulated very valid reasons WHY CFW makes sense. I think you're giving yourself analysis paralysis!

If you're a math nerd, why don't you look at buying direct, saving on APs, and keeping the contract for 15 years. Pick your expected week, go off the point charts, and look at cash rental rates now. I would expect the new overhaul of the cabins will result in at LEAST a 20% price hike, so your points are looking more economical. Basically, if you were to pay cash rates for 15 years, when your kids could reasonably be expected to age out of CFW (you, too,) would you be upside down/break even/out ahead?

For this purchase, you seem like lifer CFW folks. I have no crystal ball, but the love you have for Fort Wilderness is apparent. Your work background makes sense for it. Your kids could invite friends to stay with you as they age.

Wildcard, the Reflections site seems to be maybe back on the table. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Reflections at Fort Wilderness is bundled into the CFW as an addition in some way so they can do a new pool and plus-up the area. You may get grandfathered into another resort with options, like Poly studios and now the tower. DVC decided to "fix" the single-use category problem (I'm ignoring the bungalows, yes, because they're not the majority category,) and have added the tower. What if Reflections is built and shares CFW? That may be an amazing opportunity!

Really, once the points are bought and you're resting easy knowing you have a yearly vacation locked in and the only thing you have to think about is which seasonal festival/decorations you want to enjoy, I think the numbers matter less and less compared to your family enjoyment.

 

[10CJ]

16.65 is a good deal for renting because you're not losing that opportunity cost, it is NOT a good deal if you are an owner. My direct Riviera points cost about 12.7 per point. It's pretty easy to spend 3-400 points on a 2BR for a week at most resorts. That nearly 4 dollar difference amounts to 1600 dollars over the course of a week. With resale it's even worse because most people's points probably cost 10-11 dollars per point or so.

If you want to stay somewhere else, how are you doing it? I don't think most people own points at every resort they want to stay at. Using pts at another resort one year is certainly cheaper than buying into that resort. I compared to renting because if you don't want to use your own points to book at another resort, what are the other options?

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

So we are considering buying CFW as first time buyers into DVC. I know, unpopular opinion right now considering the new "Trust" and the high maintenance dues of $12.15. The point charts are great but we still do not know what the price per point will be, I am guessing $225 ppp.

Reasons:
We love visiting Fort Wilderness, we enjoy "looping" in our golf cart, visiting the Tri-Circle D Ranch to say hello to the horses, seeing nature, being able to spread out, movie nights under the stars, taking a boat ride to MK, the list is endless with all of the activities offered at that resort that we literally take days off between visiting the parks to simply just enjoy the Fort.

In regards to the cabins, we enjoy the fact that our boys can just be kids, play and talk as loud as they want inside our cabin without worrying about bothering the next door neighbors because we don't share walls. We can step out in our porch and just enjoy our meals there under the trees. We have picky eaters so we tend to cook a few meals in our cabin. We don't mind not having a washer and dryer since we have used the commons area to do a load or two during our stay which is right next to the pool, so we can just enjoy some time at the pool whenever we do our laundry. Anyhow, my husband travels a lot for work and often stays in many hotels/resorts and he says that by far he feels the most comfortable and at peace when he stays in the Cabins in Fort Wilderness. We enjoy visiting the parks but the big crowds do drain us so we like taking a day off to just relax at the Fort between park visits. Our typical stay is usually Saturday through Thursday, so about 5 night stay.

I ran the comparisons using DVC Resale Market numbers for current Direct vs resale price per point plus dues (numbers obtained are as of Jan. 19th, 2024 they will change once the price increase for Direct sales happens 01/29/2024), total years remaining on the deed (or call it trust for CFW), for a stay in Oct. 12 to the 17th, 2024 staying at a 1 bedroom accross all the other DVC resorts as a hypothetical booking. Granted for the Poly there are only studios and not 1 bedrooms. Also, I tried using the standard 1 bedroom points, where applicable, for my comparison.

The end result for a 5 night stay in mid Oct of 2024, buying DIRECT is as follows:

Buy Direc/Resale?	Resort	Price Per Point	Years Remaining in Deed	Cost per point	2024 Dues	Cost pp +dues	Points needed for a 5 night stay	Cost per 5 night stay
Direct	Animal Kingdom	$210	33	$6.36	$9.08	$15.44	148	$2,285.66
Direct	Aulani	$225	38	$5.92	$9.76	$15.68	182	$2,853.95
Direct	Bay Lake Tower	$275	36	$7.64	$7.59	$15.23	173	$2,634.60
Direct	Beach Club	$275	18	$15.28	$8.63	$23.91	183	$4,375.12
Direct	Boardwalk	$240	18	$13.33	$8.67	$22.00	145	$3,190.48
Direct	Boulder Ridge	$215	18	$11.94	$8.68	$20.62	182	$3,753.65
Direct	Cabins at Fort Wilderness	$225	50	$4.50	$12.15	$16.65	113	$1,881.45
Direct	Copper Creek	$250	44	$5.68	$8.09	$13.77	182	$2,506.47
Direct	Disneyland Hotel	$230	50	$4.60	$9.53	$14.13	206	$2,910.78
Direct	Grand Californian	$310	36	$8.61	$8.55	$17.16	204	$3,500.87
Direct	Grand Floridian	$230	40	$5.75	$7.57	$13.32	223	$2,970.36
Direct	Hilton Head	$165	18	$9.17	$11.31	$20.48	152	$3,112.45
Direct	Old Key West	$205	18	$11.39	$9.87	$21.26	146	$3,103.80
Direct	Old Key West – Ext	$205	33	$6.21	$9.87	$16.08	146	$2,347.99
Direct	Polynesian (studio)	$250	42	$5.95	$8.23	$14.18	130	$1,843.71
Direct	Riviera Resort	$225	46	$4.89	$8.85	$13.74	206	$2,830.71
Direct	Saratoga Springs	$205	30	$6.83	$8.14	$14.97	154	$2,305.89
Direct	Vero Beach	$150	18	$8.33	$13.86	$22.19	113	$2,507.85

Buying Resale (but only option buying direct for the Cabins at Fort Wilderness)

Buy Direc/Resale?	Resort	Price Per Point	Years Remaining in Deed	Cost per point	2024 Dues	Cost pp +dues	Point needed for a 5 night stay	Cost per 5 night stay
Resale	Animal Kingdom	$116	33	$3.52	$9.08	$12.60	148	$1,864.08
Resale	Aulani	$106	38	$2.79	$9.76	$12.55	182	$2,284.00
resale	Bay Lake Tower	$132	36	$3.67	$7.59	$11.26	173	$1,947.40
resale	Beach Club	$136	18	$7.56	$8.63	$16.19	183	$2,961.96
resale	Boardwalk	$123	18	$6.83	$8.67	$15.50	145	$2,247.98
resale	Boulder Ridge	$111	18	$6.17	$8.68	$14.85	182	$2,702.09
Direct	Cabins at Fort Wilderness	$225	50	$4.50	$12.15	$16.65	113	$1,881.45
resale	Copper Creek	$146	44	$3.32	$8.09	$11.41	182	$2,076.29
resale	Disneyland Hotel	$180	50	$3.60	$9.53	$13.13	206	$2,704.78
resale	Grand Californian	$281	36	$7.81	$8.55	$16.36	204	$3,336.53
resale	Grand Floridian	$163	40	$4.08	$7.57	$11.65	223	$2,596.84
resale	Hilton Head	$66	18	$3.67	$11.31	$14.98	152	$2,276.45
resale	Old Key West	$89	18	$4.94	$9.87	$14.81	146	$2,162.91
resale	Old Key West – Ext	$115	33	$3.48	$9.87	$13.35	146	$1,949.81
resale	Polynesian (studio)	$155	42	$3.69	$8.23	$11.92	130	$1,549.66
resale	Riviera Resort	$117	46	$2.54	$8.85	$11.39	206	$2,347.06
resale	Saratoga Springs	$106	30	$3.53	$8.14	$11.67	154	$1,797.69
resale	Vero Beach	$58	18	$3.22	$13.86	$17.08	113	$1,930.29

The catch is if we buy Direct at CFW, it will appear that our points, with the high dues, will only be beneficial to use ONLY for bookings at the CFW (granted we would have the 11 month booking advantage and it will be save us $$ in comparison to the other DVC properties but only buying direct. The exception would be buying resale at the other properties like AK and SS would be less and Poly studio but we do not wish to stay in a studio). This means that it will be unwise to book at any of the other resorts using CFW points for a room that is at least a 1 bedroom since the cost per point plus yearly dues per point will be way too much since all other DVC resorts will cost more points per night. In sum, the low point charts for CFW are great, the dues are too high, and even if we buy DIRECT WITHOUT any restrictions it will be unwise to use the CFW points at any other DVC resort other that the CFW home resort. I believe we are going to have to just wait for the first resale of a CFW contract, even with all the restrictions, since it appears that even if you buy CFW DIRECT it will cost too much to use CFW points at any other DVC property. Now, if the price per point is less than $180 after incentives then we might consider buying direct but I doubt it.

Right now you can book Cabins at Fort Wilderness, using the “Stay Longer” promotion (which runs most of this year) for prices starting at $412 per night. I’m sorry, but buying this as a timeshare at $225 a point and with dues starting at $12.15 per point, is objectively nuts. Don’t do it. Nobody should be buying this. The dues will only go up, and they always outpace inflation. The resale market for this (given the restrictions and the high dues) is suspect at best.

If you really like CFW, then pay cash and stay there. You will save money in the long run doing that versus this.

 

[wilkydelts]

That room rate does not hold. Room rates after July 1 are close to $550 and that probably won’t even get you the new cabin but the old ones.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

That room rate does not hold. Room rates after July 1 are close to $550 and that probably won’t even get you the new cabin but the old ones.

Even at $550 a night it doesn’t make sense to purchase this.

 

[teamsamant]

$12.15pp dues to start? Whew. You only buy that if you really are using these points to stay in the cabins and if this is the opportunity you have been waiting for. In 10 years those dues are going to cross over $15pp. If they create no more new associations or not many more the resale value of these contracts is going to look like Vero.

You have to love those cabins to buy in to this. Otherwise there is no value.

 

[Sandisw]

Even at $550 a night it doesn’t make sense to purchase this.

Except we are assuming that they won’t raise them even faster for cash guests over time and that eventually getting them as a cash guest might be more difficult than it is now.

For someone who enjoys the resort, I think it can make sense in the long term if the plan is to keep visiting.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

The worst thing about the dues is the trajectory.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Even at $550 a night it doesn’t make sense to purchase this.

Please break down your math on why you thinks it’s “objectively nuts”. I’m not agreeing or disagreeing…just looking for more of a detailed answer.

If you buy at least 150 direct you are possibly getting the direct points at 200pp. So over 50 years that’s $4 amortized. Add on $12.15pp and that gets you to $16.15 pp. If the avg night is 25 a night then you are at $404 per night vs cash rate at $616 including the TOT. That’s a 34% discount. Get a guaranteed week to protect yourself on the resale market.

Yes, dues go up…. but inflation goes up too and so will cash rates.

If a family really loves going to the Cabins and wants to lock that in for themselves and future generations with some flexibility to use the points outside WDW if they want…. I wouldn’t fault them for it just like I wouldn’t want anyone faulting my family for buying into VGC and paying a small fortune to do so.